Week 4: Recap and Redraft Thoughts

Maybe the reason is he has twins.  Maybe he was sad about the Utes losing to the Cougars in the 4th quarter (no, not those Cougars, but I can dream).  It could be that the 3 TD weeks of Andrew Luck got his team complacent.  Maybe this was a trap game and he was looking ahead to his game with Rob.  Or maybe, just maybe, he was getting a little cocky from being the defending champion, and being 3-0 going against 0-3 Matt.  The truth is we may never know, but for some reason, Tyler gave away a game (I believe on accident) and is no longer undefeated.  I'm pretty sure Matt graciously accepts your blunder Tyler. Now I am the only undefeated team, and we don't want that to happen.  I mean I write this weekly blog post, so you know I can mention it whenever I want.

Let this serve as a reminder...SET  YOUR LINEUPS.  No one wants to see me undefeated, and no one wants to see Matt win.  Why? Because then he won't panic and finally sell me Eddy Lacy for dirt cheap.  So thanks a lot Tyler.  Anyway...You are all grown adults -- except Konner, though the movie theaters and the Disney parks have charged him like one for years --  so you can remember to set your lineups.  If you need to get into a routine, and go through your roster one last time before you go to bed Saturday night, do it (it's one of the things I do).  If you need to set an alarm Saturday night to remind yourself to check your alarm, do it.  If you have a smartphone, download the crappy NFL Fantasy app, and turn on notifications (that's me).  You can also get email notifications so that you get reminders on your computers, as well as said smartphone.  Heck, make the league page your home page so you see the annoying little red notifications on the site, fix the problem, and then get mad because they don't go away (ya, that's me too).

Anyway, you get the point.  You are grown men,  I won't text you to update your lineup -- unless I need your opponent to lose so I can make the playoffs, then I will be spamming you all night.  Who knows, maybe there is a strategy to forgetting to remove your players in a bye week.  Geoff did it against Tyler last year.  Not that Geoff had a great year last year, but he has won it before.  Tyler also forgot to sub someone out last year (week 9) and he ended up winning the whole thing. Ren gets close every year, and he didn't sub someone out (it was his kicker) last year against Tyler --  though that may have been so he didn't have to drop anyone else.  The Tyler theme is an interesting one here.  I don't recommend the strategy, so please remember to take your bye week guys out, and put in some subs.

So on to this week.  Tyler and Matt had the close game that shouldn't have been, and Brady and Jordan also had a close game.  Had we allowed Jordan to pick up Niles Paul, Brady would have won. I'm not sure if this is Karma, or bad luck or what.  But it's interesting.  If not for Tyler's blunder, the West Division would have gone undefeated this week.  The last time that happened was week 9 last year (North Division).  Now I feel like ESPN because that stat isn't that impressive. I'm going to keep checking into it.  Please hold.  Ya, it happened week 6 that year (North Division again),so no big whoop.  So the best record to never make the playoffs is 7-6, and the worst to make it is 6-7.  It seems like most people still have a solid shot to make the playoffs.  I mean Trevor did start 6-0 and then went 1-6 the rest of the way and missed the playoffs, so you never know.

Finally, I'm curious if we redid the draft right now, and had no keepers, who would go number one? How high would Andrew Luck go? Even if Peyton Manning played this week and got his average of around 25, he would be tied with Matt Ryan in 2nd, while like would be 25 points ahead of him.  How high would injury prone Demarco Murray go? Or thought he might get suspended Bell.  There were people who thought Lynch would be done this year, and he's the 4th best back, and a game behind almost everyone else.  And Ahmad Bradshaw is currently 3rd in total points.  What about backs who fall? This was Charles first week with double digit points, same with Lacy.  Would Petersen or Rice get drafted in the single digit rounds?  Brady has 3 of the top 9 WR (not including tonight) on his team.  No way that happens again.  Maclin and Benjamin would go much higher.  Those could be some steals for keepers.  And what about old man Steve Smith Sr? Would his success raise him up, or do we all think it's a flash in the pan and he will die down?

So ya, interesting things to think about.  Maybe next week I will do a one man, 12 team, 3-5 round mock draft.  That sounds too complicated, so maybe not.  Anyway, good week everyone, better luck next week to those that lost, and I really hope Trevor's 160 point week goes back to sleep for next week. 3 players with 30+ points...my goodness.

Weekly Record: 2-2 (I thought it was going to be worse)
Year to Date: 12-4 (Pretty sure it's my best start ever, Knock on wood)

*Edit: Throwing in something new I meant to put in last night but didn't have the time.  The reason last night was so big for Matt is that no 0-4 team has made the playoffs.  Not saying it can't happen, but history isn't on your side if you start 0-4.  History also isn't on your side when you start 6-0.*

Oh ya, SET YOUR LINEUPS!

Week 3 Notes

Another interesting week in fantasy football, another excuse for me to share my feelings, and most importantly, brag about my first 4-0 week.  There weren’t nearly as many injuries as last week which was nice, both from a fantasy angle as well as a not wanting to see players lose their livelihood angle…but mostly from the fantasy angle. 

The closest game of the week was the Brandon Marshall near goose-egg game (and by that I mean the only game within 18 points).  Brandon Marshall was the 16^th highest scoring WR before today, and that’s with all other WR’s having played 3 games, while he had only played 2.  For the first 2 weeks, Marshall was the #3 WR in the leage.  So anyway, top 16 being one game behind everyone is solid.  After tonight’s performance, he moves from 16 to 14.  Big jump for him.  Unfortunately, Matt needed 3.2 points from Marshall, and he only got half of that.  This was his worst game since November 20^th of 2011, when He had one catch for 5 yards.  The only person madder about this game than Matt is Rob.

Rob, who said it wasn’t tanking to trade the best WR in the game for a top TE last year, sat the same top TE for no one (I wonder if it’s taking now?) so he could get a better waiver pick.  I would like to complain more about this move, but I fear if I say too much, the fantasy god’s won’t pay him back with karma, so I won’t rant anymore.  Anyway, because Matt lost and stays defeated, he doesn’t fall behind Rob for the waiver claims.  Geoff also lost, so he stays in front of Rob as well.  And because Jordan lost and didn’t have a great day in total points, he stays below Rob too. 

Winless Kyle finally got his first victory over Konner, while Tyler, Skyler, and Ren stay undefeated.  Ren and Skyler play next week, and that’s with Peyton and Sanders on a bye.  So I’m saying there’s a chance.  So division play has ended for a while, and now we will see how each division does against the other divisions.  Let the division smack talk begin.  Also, as a reminder, standings are decided by wins, and then by total points for.  Midseason tank at your own risk.  Also, doing a free agent/waiver acquisition budget would remove midseason tanking – just a thought.

If the playoffs started today (which we all know isn’t remotely close to true, but I need to include something new this week) Ren would have the one seed and a bye, and Skyler would have passed Tyler to take the 2 seed and the bye.  Tyler would be the 3 seed and would play against 6 seed Brady (who is in on a points tiebreaker – by like 1 – over Konner) and 4 seed Chad would take on 5 seed Trevor (I could actually be wrong, I’m just doing some quick math in my head, but this will for sure be updated Tuesday morning on the main page).

Shameless self-promotion from here on out.  Good luck to everyone but Ren next week.

This week: 4-0

Year to date: 10-2…which means I am going to lose a lot of my games next week.  Dangit.

Week 2 Thoughts: The Injury Bug

There were some unfortunate injuries this week, in AJ Green, Knowshon Moreno (both in Jordan’s starting lineup), Ryan Mathews, Jamaal Charles, MJD (not a huge crisis), RG3 (also not a crisis), Doug Martin, DeSean Jackson, Vernon Davis, and Kyle’s pride (more on that later), as well as Adrian Peterson being inactive.  Vernon Davis was probably missed the most because the game he played in was the closest.  There is for sure no way of knowing if someone could have had a good week, but the other games were enough of a blowout, that I’m not sure the losers would have been helped.  Or in Trevor and Jordan’s case, they still won anyway.

Ren blew everyone out of the water…and that was with the defense scoring a negative point.  His 8 other players scored him double digits, and 5 of them scored over 20.  It’s just not fair you know?  I ended up beating Chad by less than 5 points, which was nerve racking.  I want to personally thank Torrey Smith for not doing much in the Thursday night game.  He saved my bacon.  A battle of Monday night quarterbacks happened between Tyler and Konner.  There was less than a 1 point differential going into this game, and Tyler won off of the 3 passing TD’s of Andrew Luck. 

Of other news, Kyle lost to Jordan, who had Moreno hurt (.4 points before being hurt), Green hurt (no points) and Dwayne Allen invisible (0 points).  Plus Chris Johnson only scored 3.1 points, which would have been the lowest scorer on Kyle’s team.  Basically 5 guys on Jordan’s team beat Kyle’s team by 13 points (the other 3.5 coming from Johnson and Moreno).  I can’t say I’ve seen any game quite like that before.  Had Kyle started Gates he would have won, but I can’t say I blame him for starting Witten over Gates.  I would have done the same thing, but that might need to change soon.

The 2-0 teams will be Skyler, Ren, and the defending champion who had his draft ridiculed by multiple sites, Tyler Hukill.  The season is still really early, so this doesn’t mean much, but still.  It doesn’t hurt your team to be 2-0 – except on the waiver wires.  So yes, Tyler is 2-0 with his 2^nd round pick being out all year, and he didn’t have his 1^st round pick this last game.  So well done Tyler.

Next week is the big rivalry week in the North division.  There is the cousin game of me and Brady, and the “We aren’t sure what their relationship really is” bowl of Geoff and Chad.  I mean Geoff did serenade Chad at his wedding luncheon (I think it was luncheon) with “Teardrops on my guitar”.  That being said – I am a little jealous of this relationship.  Anyway, moving on.  I’m not sure how much the rest of you view this as rivalry week, but I don’t really care.  I’m not in your division.  I am in the North division, and I love it.

I was going to call the North division the division of champions, but the West has also had 2 modern era championships, and with Kyle and Jordan Matt winning the 2  a pre-mission championships, they would win in a tiebreaker.  However, I say they only have 2 1.5ish championships.  Divisions weren't the same pre-mission.  If you look at the Packers history, they have a few superbowls, but a ton more championships, but those championships don’t count the same because they were before the superbowl era.  I think our league functions the same way.

Anyway, that’s it, other than I beat Chad and I love it.  He has knocked me out of the playoffs the last 2 years in the Semi’s, and so I have to get my wins against him while I can.

Weekly record: 3-1

Against Chad weekly record (we are in 2 leagues together): 1-1

Year to date: 6-2

First week of fantasy football: 2014 season

       Week 1 is in the books, and so what?  Sure it was fun to finally have some games to watch, and some opponents to beat, but week one doesn't really mean much in the long run.  Before I get there, here are some other interesting stats.  Each winner scored over 140, and only 2 losers scored under 100.  The average score was 125.  The winners average was 144 and the losers average was 105.

     Every year in the modern era, 3 teams that have lost the first week have made the playoffs, meaning 3 who win also make the playoffs.  From what I could tell there was no variation of this in any year.  It's also 12:30 at night, so I could have screwed up on that, but I'm pretty sure it's right.

     So what about week 2?  In all 4 years 12 teams have gone 2-0, but only 7 of them made the playoffs.  However, in the last 2 years, there have been 7 teams to go 2-0, and 5 of them have made the playoffs.  So it appears to be getting a little harder to recover from your mistakes.  It would appear we are getting smarter or something.

     The reverse of that is fairly true.  12 teams have started out 0-2, and 5 of them have made the playoffs.  The last 2 years, 7 teams went 0-2 and 4 of them made the playoff.  I will recant that smarter belief.  Or maybe the 2-0 teams are getting a little smarter, the 0-2 teams get good waiver picks, and the 1-1 teams are stuck in in limbo. 1-1 teams have made the playoffs 12 out of 24 times, but in the last 2 years it has only been 3 of 10 of the 1-1 teams making the playoffs.  So if you are 1-0, go for the win, if you are 0-1, tank one more week.  If you claim to be the caped crusader, go ahead and tank for fun.

     The closest games were matt and rob (27 points) and skyler and geoff (30 points) but there were no players on their benches that would have helped them win.  I imagine stats like that change next week.  Next week (assuming no ties) there is for sure 2 teams that start out 2-0 and for sure 2 that start 0-2 because skyler plays chad, and konner plays tyler.  Rob and Ren could also both win and go 2-0, but it's not a guarantee.

    As far as players this week (This does not include tonight's games), skyler was fortunate to have 2 of the top 3 (Ryan number 1 and Bell number 3) total points scorers.  Rob had number 2 (Julius thomas).  If you started a top 3 QB you won, If you started a top 4 RB you won (skyler was lucky and had number 1 and 4).  The number one wide receiver this week was an undrafted rookie for Jacksonville...by undrafted I mean by us and the NFL.  Jordan started the top scoring WR and lost. Matt had the number 4 highest scoring and started, and lost.  Brady had two top 8 WR's on his bench and lost (though he did start who should be the number 1 WR of the week in megatron).  Geoff had 2 of the top 6 TE's.  Maybe he will make a move soon to trade one of them while value is high?  Of the top 8 kickers, 2 were owned.  Just a friendly reminder to take your kickers in the last round.  Of the top 10 DSTs, 3 were owned.  Just a friendly reminder to take your defense in the 2nd to last round.

That is all see you in week 2.

Also, as a personal plug, I am in 4 leagues this year, I went 3-1 this week, meaning I'm 3-1 on the year.

Preseason Rankings

Today was Fantasy Football Draft Day...greatest day of the year in my opinion.  Anyway, using one guys projections, I'm going to rank our teams according to what he said.  But first, I will post a link so you can explore what he thinks specifically of your team, or so you can click links to see what other analysts think.

Skyler: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=Vw672pP8i38B
Brady: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=u2RqUtwZ9y93
Chad: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=5Y82tkmVdQ33
Geoff: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=75Br4JQjrZ5b

Trevor: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=z9877C4Psz2z
Ren: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=XXz748HbCc93
Rob: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=UPattV2kx238
Matt: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=vT738TqCMZ35

Tyler: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=2hL8Zs78954Y
Jordan: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=Ya4zJT2rz295
Koko: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=QUZ6Ew44kkWm
Kyle: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=d467H395i2Sp

Now for the rankings:  These are the odds to make the players. These percents will be based on the "Great" inseason management, not the "good" or "average".

Rob: 99% -- Crap, I don't like this.
Skyler: 90% -- I don't believe this, I'm not comfortable with my team
Geoff: 85% -- They have Gio as #6 RB, so this makes sense if you buy that.

Matt: 85% -- They love his QB duo

Jordan: 85% -- I thought this should be higher.  They knocked him for no backup QB, and he is a little weak at running back, but I thought he should be higher.
Ren: 75% -- Another I thought was too low.  They are trying to say he is weak at QB and that Peyton needs a backup.  Whatever.
Koko: 75% -- Like his RB's, not his WR's.
Trevor: 75% -- Apparently having only the #5 QB is too thin, and having the #7 WR is below average?
Brady:  65% -- They strongly dislike Rivers (#15 QB) and Ellington (#13 RB).
Chad: 65% -- And I quote "Let us say this as nicely as we can. This team is iffy at best. It is below average and/or too thin at all three core positions".
Kyle: 65% -- Don't like his WR, and they seem to kinda like his backs.
Tyler: 55% -- Oh how the mighty have fallen.  I will quote their opening analysis "Let us say this as nicely as we can. This team is brutal."

So this is all assuming we have great inseason management, which isn't always the case.  It depends how you finish one week and if you pick up the right guy.  Also you can click other analysts and see what changes.  Anyway, that was a fun draft.  Best of luck to me next year.

The 2014 draft will begin in...

Disneyland v. Walt Disney World: Picking my Favorite Resort

I’m breaking up my non-scheduled and irregularly-posted Harry Potter blog posts to write about something else that I’m rather passionate about: Disney Resorts.  I have been contemplating for some time which resort I like more, so I figure writing my thoughts, feelings, and opinions would help me sort it all out.  I will be evaluating the resorts on a couple of criteria, and picking a winner for each criteria.  I will then add up the total points and pick an overall winner.  Though to be fair, some criteria will be worth more points.  I’m sure this is a reasonable system, and my thoughts will never change in my life.

The first one is based on an assumption that will never come true – either everything at each resort is completely free, or I become so rich that spending money however I want at a Disney Resort doesn’t matter.  Like I said, not coming true, but I would love if it did.  If I had this option, I would pick Walt Disney World (WDW) over the Disneyland Resort (DLR) because there is so much more to do.  4 parks, 2 water parks, Disneyquest (not all that great to be honest), Downtown Disney (has more to do than DLR’s Downtown Disney), 28 hotels, 4 golf courses, 2 mini golf courses, and a whole host of things I didn’t know you could do there until I googled it (kayaking, wakeboarding, parasailing, boat rentals, etc.) would be more fun than 2 parks, 3 hotels, and Downtown Disney.  This doesn’t automatically give WDW the win for favorite resort though, because I will never have that much money/time, and even if I did, I don’t go to WDW to go kayaking.  However, WDW gets the win for this section.  WDW 1 – DLR 0

Travel Experience:  I will admit that this situation is biased to where I grew up.  Getting to DLR from St. George is a 7 hour drive.  Going to WDW is several hours of flying.  I kinda go crazy in cars.  If I’m not driving, I tend to get a little sick after a while.  Flying takes a little longer, and can be more stressful, but there is also more to do.  Also, not having to stop for bathroom breaks is a big plus when you have 3 younger brothers, and all of your bladders get full at different times.  Plus, I think flying adds to the vacation experience of it all.  I don’t fly much, so I generally equate it with something fun when I do.  WDW 2 – DLR 0

Vacation Experience:  If you are going to visit either resort, I feel like you should give a full day to each park, even if the park doesn’t deserve it (I’m looking at you Epcot).  So having 4 days for WDW and only 2 for DLR tends to make WDW better.  You are able to get away for longer, and take advantage of the vacation.  WDW 3 – DLR 0

Proximity vs Inclusiveness:  I am combining these because they feel like opposites to me.  Everything at DLR is right next to each other.  It’s easy to park hop, or get to Downtown Disneyland, or even leave the property if you want.  However, you don’t always feel like you are in your own little space.  California is very prevalent and noticeable.  For WDW, I have some info to share with you – according to Today.com WDW is the same size as San Francisco.  So ya, it’s inclusive.  It’s just hard to navigate everything on your own.  Each has its perks and downfalls – instead of giving each park a point and having this section mean nothing, I will give WDW a half-point because I like their option slightly more.  I’m just not that big a fan of park hopping.  WDW 3.5 – DLR 0

On a budget: This will depend on where you live.  Since I am writing, it’s based on Utah.  If any of you aren’t from Utah – deal with it.  Because of the closeness to Utah, DLR basically wins.  It’s cheaper to travel there by car, but flying isn’t all that bad.  Because of the 3 close-ish airports, you get more options on flights, which makes them cheaper.  So if you live in northern Utah, I would look into flying.  Also, because the rest of California is right there, you can find some alright hotels within walking distance.  Unless you are staying onsite at WDW you will need to rent a car, call a cab, or stay at a hotel with shuttle service – after paying to fly across the country.  WDW 3.5 – DLR 1

The 1-park test:  In my situation (living in Utah) you wouldn’t fly to Florida to only visit one park and then fly home.  It’s slightly more reasonable for DLR, but still doesn’t make a lot of sense.  So we will remove budget/travel constraints for this scenario, which is you can only go to one park for one day.  For me, the answer is the Disneyland (DL) park. Not only is it bigger than Magic Kingdom (MK) by 53 acres, but there is more to do at that park than any other park.  Most people who haven’t been to WDW don’t realize just how separated everything is, or what isn’t included.  For example rides at DL not found in MK (but may be found in other WDW parks) include the Matterhorn, Indiana Jones, and Star Tours.  The list may not be long, but I love those rides dangit – I don’t want to have to park hop to 2 other parks to get their equivalents in (in all fairness, expedition Everest and Matterhorn aren’t the same, but I put them as equivalent as far as theming/idea).  And DLR would still win if you did a 2 parks to 2 parks test (I would include MK and Disney’s Hollywood Studios from WDW). I feel so strongly about this section, that this is worth 1.5 points.  WDW 3.5 – DLR 2.5

New Rides/Expansion:  The newest ride/section at DLR is Carsland, and WDW got the new Fantasyland.  Unfortunately, I didn’t get to ride the 7 dwarfs mine train ride, but I think Radiator Springs Racers would have won.  WDW has more room for expansion though, and I think Avatar-land will be pretty awesome once it’s finished.  Short term, DLR gets the win, though WDW has a much easier time expanding and getting new rides.  This is a half point victory.  WDW 3.5 – DLR 3.0

Weather/Air:  WDW is more humid, DLR air can be dirtier (again with the rest of California being right on top of you thing).  WDW is hotter.  Winner DLR, but this isn’t major, so .5 point victory here. WDW 3.5 – DLR 3.5

Nostalgia:  I could go on for a long time here and break this down.  To save you some time I will say that DLR wins.  There is childhood nostalgia, family nostalgia, and gradnight nostalgia going on here.  WDW has no childhood nostalgia, and less family nostalgia than DLR.  It does have “I worked/lived there” nostalgia (not that strong), and Honeymoon nostalgia.  So DLR basically wins 3-1 on the nostalgia count.  Disney parks are better with more people, and with kids, and I have more experience with bigger groups at DLR, as well as with kids (or while being a kid) as well.  DLR 4.5 – WDW 3.5

Disneyland Resort gets the win.  Thanks for reading – or more like thanks for clicking.  Eventually I will blog about the Harry Potter movies, but we’ll see if that ever happens before this month is over.