Monday, September 29, 2014

Week 4: Recap and Redraft Thoughts

Maybe the reason is he has twins.  Maybe he was sad about the Utes losing to the Cougars in the 4th quarter (no, not those Cougars, but I can dream).  It could be that the 3 TD weeks of Andrew Luck got his team complacent.  Maybe this was a trap game and he was looking ahead to his game with Rob.  Or maybe, just maybe, he was getting a little cocky from being the defending champion, and being 3-0 going against 0-3 Matt.  The truth is we may never know, but for some reason, Tyler gave away a game (I believe on accident) and is no longer undefeated.  I'm pretty sure Matt graciously accepts your blunder Tyler. Now I am the only undefeated team, and we don't want that to happen.  I mean I write this weekly blog post, so you know I can mention it whenever I want.

Let this serve as a reminder...SET  YOUR LINEUPS.  No one wants to see me undefeated, and no one wants to see Matt win.  Why? Because then he won't panic and finally sell me Eddy Lacy for dirt cheap.  So thanks a lot Tyler.  Anyway...You are all grown adults -- except Konner, though the movie theaters and the Disney parks have charged him like one for years --  so you can remember to set your lineups.  If you need to get into a routine, and go through your roster one last time before you go to bed Saturday night, do it (it's one of the things I do).  If you need to set an alarm Saturday night to remind yourself to check your alarm, do it.  If you have a smartphone, download the crappy NFL Fantasy app, and turn on notifications (that's me).  You can also get email notifications so that you get reminders on your computers, as well as said smartphone.  Heck, make the league page your home page so you see the annoying little red notifications on the site, fix the problem, and then get mad because they don't go away (ya, that's me too).

Anyway, you get the point.  You are grown men,  I won't text you to update your lineup -- unless I need your opponent to lose so I can make the playoffs, then I will be spamming you all night.  Who knows, maybe there is a strategy to forgetting to remove your players in a bye week.  Geoff did it against Tyler last year.  Not that Geoff had a great year last year, but he has won it before.  Tyler also forgot to sub someone out last year (week 9) and he ended up winning the whole thing. Ren gets close every year, and he didn't sub someone out (it was his kicker) last year against Tyler --  though that may have been so he didn't have to drop anyone else.  The Tyler theme is an interesting one here.  I don't recommend the strategy, so please remember to take your bye week guys out, and put in some subs.

So on to this week.  Tyler and Matt had the close game that shouldn't have been, and Brady and Jordan also had a close game.  Had we allowed Jordan to pick up Niles Paul, Brady would have won. I'm not sure if this is Karma, or bad luck or what.  But it's interesting.  If not for Tyler's blunder, the West Division would have gone undefeated this week.  The last time that happened was week 9 last year (North Division).  Now I feel like ESPN because that stat isn't that impressive. I'm going to keep checking into it.  Please hold.  Ya, it happened week 6 that year (North Division again),so no big whoop.  So the best record to never make the playoffs is 7-6, and the worst to make it is 6-7.  It seems like most people still have a solid shot to make the playoffs.  I mean Trevor did start 6-0 and then went 1-6 the rest of the way and missed the playoffs, so you never know.

Finally, I'm curious if we redid the draft right now, and had no keepers, who would go number one? How high would Andrew Luck go? Even if Peyton Manning played this week and got his average of around 25, he would be tied with Matt Ryan in 2nd, while like would be 25 points ahead of him.  How high would injury prone Demarco Murray go? Or thought he might get suspended Bell.  There were people who thought Lynch would be done this year, and he's the 4th best back, and a game behind almost everyone else.  And Ahmad Bradshaw is currently 3rd in total points.  What about backs who fall? This was Charles first week with double digit points, same with Lacy.  Would Petersen or Rice get drafted in the single digit rounds?  Brady has 3 of the top 9 WR (not including tonight) on his team.  No way that happens again.  Maclin and Benjamin would go much higher.  Those could be some steals for keepers.  And what about old man Steve Smith Sr? Would his success raise him up, or do we all think it's a flash in the pan and he will die down?

So ya, interesting things to think about.  Maybe next week I will do a one man, 12 team, 3-5 round mock draft.  That sounds too complicated, so maybe not.  Anyway, good week everyone, better luck next week to those that lost, and I really hope Trevor's 160 point week goes back to sleep for next week. 3 players with 30+ goodness.

Weekly Record: 2-2 (I thought it was going to be worse)
Year to Date: 12-4 (Pretty sure it's my best start ever, Knock on wood)

*Edit: Throwing in something new I meant to put in last night but didn't have the time.  The reason last night was so big for Matt is that no 0-4 team has made the playoffs.  Not saying it can't happen, but history isn't on your side if you start 0-4.  History also isn't on your side when you start 6-0.*


Monday, September 22, 2014

Week 3 Notes

Another interesting week in fantasy football, another excuse for me to share my feelings, and most importantly, brag about my first 4-0 week.  There weren’t nearly as many injuries as last week which was nice, both from a fantasy angle as well as a not wanting to see players lose their livelihood angle…but mostly from the fantasy angle. 

The closest game of the week was the Brandon Marshall near goose-egg game (and by that I mean the only game within 18 points).  Brandon Marshall was the 16th highest scoring WR before today, and that’s with all other WR’s having played 3 games, while he had only played 2.  For the first 2 weeks, Marshall was the #3 WR in the leage.  So anyway, top 16 being one game behind everyone is solid.  After tonight’s performance, he moves from 16 to 14.  Big jump for him.  Unfortunately, Matt needed 3.2 points from Marshall, and he only got half of that.  This was his worst game since November 20th of 2011, when He had one catch for 5 yards.  The only person madder about this game than Matt is Rob.

Rob, who said it wasn’t tanking to trade the best WR in the game for a top TE last year, sat the same top TE for no one (I wonder if it’s taking now?) so he could get a better waiver pick.  I would like to complain more about this move, but I fear if I say too much, the fantasy god’s won’t pay him back with karma, so I won’t rant anymore.  Anyway, because Matt lost and stays defeated, he doesn’t fall behind Rob for the waiver claims.  Geoff also lost, so he stays in front of Rob as well.  And because Jordan lost and didn’t have a great day in total points, he stays below Rob too. 

Winless Kyle finally got his first victory over Konner, while Tyler, Skyler, and Ren stay undefeated.  Ren and Skyler play next week, and that’s with Peyton and Sanders on a bye.  So I’m saying there’s a chance.  So division play has ended for a while, and now we will see how each division does against the other divisions.  Let the division smack talk begin.  Also, as a reminder, standings are decided by wins, and then by total points for.  Midseason tank at your own risk.  Also, doing a free agent/waiver acquisition budget would remove midseason tanking – just a thought.

If the playoffs started today (which we all know isn’t remotely close to true, but I need to include something new this week) Ren would have the one seed and a bye, and Skyler would have passed Tyler to take the 2 seed and the bye.  Tyler would be the 3 seed and would play against 6 seed Brady (who is in on a points tiebreaker – by like 1 – over Konner) and 4 seed Chad would take on 5 seed Trevor (I could actually be wrong, I’m just doing some quick math in my head, but this will for sure be updated Tuesday morning on the main page).

Shameless self-promotion from here on out.  Good luck to everyone but Ren next week.
This week: 4-0

Year to date: 10-2…which means I am going to lose a lot of my games next week.  Dangit.

Monday, September 15, 2014

Week 2 Thoughts: The Injury Bug

There were some unfortunate injuries this week, in AJ Green, Knowshon Moreno (both in Jordan’s starting lineup), Ryan Mathews, Jamaal Charles, MJD (not a huge crisis), RG3 (also not a crisis), Doug Martin, DeSean Jackson, Vernon Davis, and Kyle’s pride (more on that later), as well as Adrian Peterson being inactive.  Vernon Davis was probably missed the most because the game he played in was the closest.  There is for sure no way of knowing if someone could have had a good week, but the other games were enough of a blowout, that I’m not sure the losers would have been helped.  Or in Trevor and Jordan’s case, they still won anyway.

Ren blew everyone out of the water…and that was with the defense scoring a negative point.  His 8 other players scored him double digits, and 5 of them scored over 20.  It’s just not fair you know?  I ended up beating Chad by less than 5 points, which was nerve racking.  I want to personally thank Torrey Smith for not doing much in the Thursday night game.  He saved my bacon.  A battle of Monday night quarterbacks happened between Tyler and Konner.  There was less than a 1 point differential going into this game, and Tyler won off of the 3 passing TD’s of Andrew Luck. 

Of other news, Kyle lost to Jordan, who had Moreno hurt (.4 points before being hurt), Green hurt (no points) and Dwayne Allen invisible (0 points).  Plus Chris Johnson only scored 3.1 points, which would have been the lowest scorer on Kyle’s team.  Basically 5 guys on Jordan’s team beat Kyle’s team by 13 points (the other 3.5 coming from Johnson and Moreno).  I can’t say I’ve seen any game quite like that before.  Had Kyle started Gates he would have won, but I can’t say I blame him for starting Witten over Gates.  I would have done the same thing, but that might need to change soon.

The 2-0 teams will be Skyler, Ren, and the defending champion who had his draft ridiculed by multiple sites, Tyler Hukill.  The season is still really early, so this doesn’t mean much, but still.  It doesn’t hurt your team to be 2-0 – except on the waiver wires.  So yes, Tyler is 2-0 with his 2nd round pick being out all year, and he didn’t have his 1st round pick this last game.  So well done Tyler.

Next week is the big rivalry week in the North division.  There is the cousin game of me and Brady, and the “We aren’t sure what their relationship really is” bowl of Geoff and Chad.  I mean Geoff did serenade Chad at his wedding luncheon (I think it was luncheon) with “Teardrops on my guitar”.  That being said – I am a little jealous of this relationship.  Anyway, moving on.  I’m not sure how much the rest of you view this as rivalry week, but I don’t really care.  I’m not in your division.  I am in the North division, and I love it.

I was going to call the North division the division of champions, but the West has also had 2 modern era championships, and with Kyle and Jordan Matt winning the 2  a pre-mission championships, they would win in a tiebreaker.  However, I say they only have 2 1.5ish championships.  Divisions weren't the same pre-mission.  If you look at the Packers history, they have a few superbowls, but a ton more championships, but those championships don’t count the same because they were before the superbowl era.  I think our league functions the same way.

Anyway, that’s it, other than I beat Chad and I love it.  He has knocked me out of the playoffs the last 2 years in the Semi’s, and so I have to get my wins against him while I can.

Weekly record: 3-1
Against Chad weekly record (we are in 2 leagues together): 1-1

Year to date: 6-2

Monday, September 8, 2014

First week of fantasy football: 2014 season

       Week 1 is in the books, and so what?  Sure it was fun to finally have some games to watch, and some opponents to beat, but week one doesn't really mean much in the long run.  Before I get there, here are some other interesting stats.  Each winner scored over 140, and only 2 losers scored under 100.  The average score was 125.  The winners average was 144 and the losers average was 105.

     Every year in the modern era, 3 teams that have lost the first week have made the playoffs, meaning 3 who win also make the playoffs.  From what I could tell there was no variation of this in any year.  It's also 12:30 at night, so I could have screwed up on that, but I'm pretty sure it's right.

     So what about week 2?  In all 4 years 12 teams have gone 2-0, but only 7 of them made the playoffs.  However, in the last 2 years, there have been 7 teams to go 2-0, and 5 of them have made the playoffs.  So it appears to be getting a little harder to recover from your mistakes.  It would appear we are getting smarter or something.

     The reverse of that is fairly true.  12 teams have started out 0-2, and 5 of them have made the playoffs.  The last 2 years, 7 teams went 0-2 and 4 of them made the playoff.  I will recant that smarter belief.  Or maybe the 2-0 teams are getting a little smarter, the 0-2 teams get good waiver picks, and the 1-1 teams are stuck in in limbo. 1-1 teams have made the playoffs 12 out of 24 times, but in the last 2 years it has only been 3 of 10 of the 1-1 teams making the playoffs.  So if you are 1-0, go for the win, if you are 0-1, tank one more week.  If you claim to be the caped crusader, go ahead and tank for fun.

     The closest games were matt and rob (27 points) and skyler and geoff (30 points) but there were no players on their benches that would have helped them win.  I imagine stats like that change next week.  Next week (assuming no ties) there is for sure 2 teams that start out 2-0 and for sure 2 that start 0-2 because skyler plays chad, and konner plays tyler.  Rob and Ren could also both win and go 2-0, but it's not a guarantee.

    As far as players this week (This does not include tonight's games), skyler was fortunate to have 2 of the top 3 (Ryan number 1 and Bell number 3) total points scorers.  Rob had number 2 (Julius thomas).  If you started a top 3 QB you won, If you started a top 4 RB you won (skyler was lucky and had number 1 and 4).  The number one wide receiver this week was an undrafted rookie for undrafted I mean by us and the NFL.  Jordan started the top scoring WR and lost. Matt had the number 4 highest scoring and started, and lost.  Brady had two top 8 WR's on his bench and lost (though he did start who should be the number 1 WR of the week in megatron).  Geoff had 2 of the top 6 TE's.  Maybe he will make a move soon to trade one of them while value is high?  Of the top 8 kickers, 2 were owned.  Just a friendly reminder to take your kickers in the last round.  Of the top 10 DSTs, 3 were owned.  Just a friendly reminder to take your defense in the 2nd to last round.

That is all see you in week 2.

Also, as a personal plug, I am in 4 leagues this year, I went 3-1 this week, meaning I'm 3-1 on the year.