Week 16: The Last Man Standing..

...is Rob and the fighting Rob Dogo's -- unless Jordan's kicker has a 40 point game in him tonight.  That would be 8 field goals over 50 yards, or maybe some trick plays and he throws a few TD's.

Rob was lead by Saquon (championship MVP) and his 43.9 points.  Saquon's last two weeks, he combined for 74 points -  the previous 14 weeks he scored about 125 points combined.  Rob also got a great outing from Michael Thomas and Travis Kelce.  The 3 of them combined for 95 of Rob's 154 points.

Jordan was let down by a few people.  Jackson and Ingram ended up having decent games but had they started hot, maybe Jordan would have had a chance.  The big let down was James Conner (championship LVP) though, who scored 3.2 points before going out with injury.

Congratulations to Rob on a well-fought campaign.  In week 9, Rob was in 5th place and had just lost to Skyler who was in second place.  However, that was his last loss of the year, and he went on a winning streak from them on to claim the 2 seed and the bye week, and eventually the championship. Rob is the second team to become a 2-time champion and will get to have the trophy for the next year, once he gets it from Brady. 

Year in Review:

I won't put too much into this for breaking down teams, I will simply link to the pre-season rankings from other sites. https://skyleraitken.blogspot.com/2019/08/2019-draft-review.html  Most of them seemed to be pretty off, but in fairness, we did a lot of trading this year.

Decade in Review:

The regular season team of the decade is the same as previously texted.  Here it is for those that don't remember

Position
QB	Rodgers
RB1	Adrian Peterson
RB2	Frank Gore
WR1	Antonio Brown
WR2	Larry Fitzgerald
Flex	McCoy
TE	Gronk
DST	Ravens
K	Gostkowski

 Rodgers --  Almost always a top QB, his only real competition was Brees and Wilson, but I gave the edge to Rodgers.  This one was probably the closest of the list outside of defense.

Peterson --  Former first-round pick, who was dominant for a long time, and stayed relevant even after he went downhill.

Gore -- never as dominant, but relevant for a long time.  He gets in over the Gurley's and Bell's of the world because it seems fitting to have someone who has been a great RB 2 in the RB 2 slot -- plus the longevity.

Brown --  a first-round pick for a long time, usually the first WR off the board.  Outside of this crazy year, he has always been safe and productive.  His major competition was Julio and Megatron.

Fitzgerald -- a better real-life WR than a fantasy WR these days, he never had the extended peak like Brown, Julio, Megatron, and others, but like Gore, he has been around and relevant for a long time.

McCoy -- basically a combo of Peterson and Gore, he had a few great years and a few years of being a reliable RB 2.  He also had some years where I don't remember him being relevant, but I could be misremembering.

Gronk -- If you have any questions on this, seek counseling, or look at the TE history of scoring in the past years.

Ravens -- Picking a DST was one of the harder picks that I put more time into than I should have.  In the last decade, only 4 teams have been in the top 10 for seven or more years (8 - Patriots, 7 - Ravens, Steelers, and Seahawks). Only 3 teams have been in the top 5 for four years (Bears, Ravens, Texans), and only 4 teams have finished in the top 3 for three years (Ravens, Bears, Seahawks, Broncos).  There have been 9 teams that have finished first overall, Ravens have done it once (the only team to do it twice is the bears)

Gostkowski -- Basically see Gronk, but substituted TE for Kicker.

The championship team of the decade is also the same 

Stafford

Marshawn Lynch

Chris Johnson

Dez Bryant

Julio Jones

Gronk

Brandin Cooks

Hauschka

Chiefs

Stafford - 2 for 2 on championships

Lynch - 2 for 2on championships

Johnson - 1 for 3 on championships

Dez - 2 for 3 on championships

Julio -  2 for 3 on championships

Gronk - 2 for 4 on championships

Cooks - 2 for 2 on championships

Hauschka - 1 for 2 on championships

Chiefs - 2 for 2 on championships

There is no good transition, so I'll just come out and say that Ren has retired, and will need to be replaced. I am working on some ideas, and I will be sending out texts to bounce some of them off of some people.

Great season and great decade everyone.  Let's hope for many more to come.  We can be friends again until late July/early August once we draft.

UHSAA RPI Basketball

I have attempted to make the RPI for boys basketball after making one for football.  Basketball has proven to be much more difficult because of the number of teams and games, so I will no longer be able to publish the results on Power BI.  Instead, I will just give view access to a version of my google spreadsheet.  If too many people access it, it might cause the sheet to crash, or it might cause problems with maxpreps.  If that happens, I will delete the public version, and then find some other way to share my data.

As a disclaimer, I was able to get the football version very accurate to the official version.  I will not be able to do this here for various reasons -- but it should still be close.  I have tested 3A compared to the official data, and it's close enough that 4A, 5A and 6A should be reasonably close. If you would like to reach out and ask specific questions about the changes and accuracy, or any other question in general, feel free to do so.

I am posting the link through my blog so I can try and keep an eye on the numbers and see what happens to the spreadsheet.  I am also doing it as part of version control with my data source.  You don't have to access the sheet through my blog, but it would help me understand how many people are viewing it and when, and the sheet may be outdated if you don't check through the blog.

I will try to update this daily, but no promises.  Thanks for reading, here is the link below.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Mphv_85wPOwqI35CQ8JFZz7dOnn7xonJk8M7xoBOze0/edit?usp=sharing

Edit:

I realized I never explained how to use this sheet.  Most people who view it may think it's mostly nonsense in the front (which is true from a user perspective).  What you will want to do is find the tab for the classification you want to look at '6A Ranking', '5A Ranking', etc, or you can find the specific team you are interested in and look at their score that way.  Looking at the team will show you how everything is calculated and brought together.  Most people likely won't care about that, but you will be able to verify what data/games are being used.

Championship Preview: Jordan vs Rob

This is the league's 10th consecutive year -- a full decade of smack talk, failed trades, late-night waiver wire checks, and playing for the trophy.  This year, we will see our second two-time champion, as both Jordan (2007), and Rob (2017) have previously won championships.  Jordan comes in as the 1 seed, and Rob comes in as the 2 seed. In the first 4 years (2010-2013), one of the top 2 seeds had been upset, and we never got a matchup between the top 2 seeds.  Then for the next 4 years (2014-2017), the championship was always the 1 seed vs the 2 seed.  Last year (2018) both the 1 and 2 seeds were eliminated before the championship, and it was only the 2nd championship matchup without one of the top two seeds (the first time being 2010).

So with the championship this year, five of the ten years will see the 1 vs 2 seed in the championship.  The previous four games have been split 2-2 with the 1 and 2 seed coming away victorious the same number of times.  In the other 3 matchups where 1 of the 2 top seeds made the championship, the top seed always lost -- so the only way the 1 or 2 seed has won the championship is during a 1 vs 2 matchup.

This is Rob's 3rd championship appearance -- he lost to Skyler in 2011, and he beat Brady in 2017.  This is Jordan's 2nd championship appearance, and first since the dark ages -- dark ages that are only passed on by story as there are no digital records of their existence.  Jordan's team last won in 2007 by beating Brady(?) in the championship.  Both teams have been consistent this decade as this is Jordan's 5th final four appearance, while Rob has 4 appearances in the final four.  After this year, Jordan is tied in second for most final four appearances all-time with Chad and Ren.

This will be Jordan and Rob's first time meeting in the playoffs.  Historically, they are 5-5 against each other in the regular season, with Jordan winning the last 2 years to even the series.  Looking at the previous 15 weeks and comparing Jordan and Rob head to head based on this season only, Jordan would have won 9 games, and Rob would have won 6.  Excluding the playoff weeks, Jordan would have won 8-5, yet Rob outscored Jordan by 40 points this season (about 3 points per game).  Jordan has been consistently better than Rob this season, but when Rob outscores Jordan, he really outscores Jordan.  In games where Jordan would have won this season, the margin of victory is 14.55 points.  In games where Rob would have won this season, the margin of victory is 36.38 points.

The current projections have Rob winning by 10 points, but that includes Lamar Jackson only outscoring Philip Rivers by 1.5 points, and Mark Ingram only outscoring Raheem Mostert by 2.2.  If the Ravens end up dominating the Browns (which is very possible), that will be a big area where Jordan can catch Rob.  On the flipside of that, Rob has Barkley who is capable of a 30 point game, 2 of the top 3 WR who can put up 30-40 point games, and Travis Kelce, who can be the most dominant TE in the league.  This game will likely come down to which superstars show up, and Rob has more players with superstar potential, with more chances to put up big numbers.  If Jordan wins, I think it will be by a narrow margin, and if Rob pulls it off, I think it's a blowout.  Based on the matchups for Barkley, Hopkins, and Thomas, I am leaning towards Rob getting the win -- and I'm not saying that just to try and jinx Rob -- I legitimately give Rob a narrow margin, unfortunately. 

P.S. History is on Jordan's side though when it comes to the highest-scoring teams and championship wins.  In our previous 9 years, only 1 team has ever been the highest-scoring team of the season while also winning the championship

Week 15: A Second Two-Time Champion Will Be Born.

For years, I have been able to give people grief about being the only person to have won multiple championships.  Well no more -- Jordan and Rob both won this week in the semi-finals.  They will face each other next week, but more on that later.

Jordan vs Trevor: There was maybe a chance that this was going to be a game, but then Thursday Night Football kicked off, and Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram II combined for 70 points, and the game was basically over.  It didn't help that Trevor only had one guy score over 20 points, and Jordan and 4 people score over 20.

Ren vs Rob: In the nail-biter of the night (14 points), Rob and Michael Thomas overcame Ren and Alvin Kamara on Monday night.  Ren had another great week from Jameis Winston (40 points), and really good weeks (23 points) from 2 of Davante Triplets (Davante Adams, DaVante Parker, with Devonta Freeman being the black sheep of the family), but it wasn't enough to overcome a season-high output from Saquon, the second-highest from the season from Michael Thomas, a season-high output from Travis Kelce, with quality games from Baker and Hopkins to help him round out his team. 

Awards

Mario Kart Shout Out: Skyler

Highest Scorer of the Week: Jordan won this by a hair over Rob. If anyone has a problem with it, make the playoffs next year. 185 points by people in the consolation bracket doesn't interest me.

Lowest Scorer of the Week: Trevor gets the lowest scorer in the playoffs, and is out of the playoffs because of it.

Luckiest Team of the Week:  Technically this will go to Rob as he is the lowest-scoring winner, but it wasn't really that lucky because he was also the second-highest scorer of the week.

Unluckiest Team of the Week:  Technically this will go to Ren as he is the highest-scoring winner, but it wasn't really that unlucky because he was also the second-lowest scorer of the week.

MVP: Michael Thomas gets the win for Rob this week.

LVPs: Alvin Kamara probably deserves this by himself, but Devonta Freeman definitely contributed by getting his 3rd lowest score of the season.

Game Previews

Jordan vs Rob: Jordan has no players on Thursday night, and 5 players in primetime (including 2 on Saturday night).  Rob has no players on Thursday night, and 5 players in primetime (including 3 on Saturday night.  Rob also has one player on Saturday not during primetime.  They each have one player on Monday night.  So this game could mostly be done by Saturday night depending on who starts.

Good luck to Jordan this week.  He will need it as Rob is likely going to win.  I will try to write a bigger preview later this week, but it's Star Wars week, so we'll see when I get around to it.

Week 14: Somebody Kill Me...(Wedding Singer reference in case anyone is worried)

This is how I feel about my season https://youtu.be/Nfrk2UdEOcQ?t=31

I wouldn't be in the spot if Dalvin Cook weren't amazing and winning me games, but I'm going to blame his injury last week on me missing out on the bye week and then losing this week.

Skyler vs Ren: Ren gets the win this week behind an injured Jameis Winston getting a season-high 42.74 points this week. Devonta Freeman was another player who came in and did work for Ren that led to the win.  Skyler had no LVPs (no one under 5) but he also didn't have a single player break 20 points.

Tommy vs Trevor: Tommy got -4 from his DST, and had two other players get hurt and limit their upside.  It didn't help his case that Trevor also put up 150+ behind a 30+ point player and two 20+ point players.

Awards

Mario Kart Shout Out: Skyler

Highest Scorer of the Week: Trevor by just a hair, and if anyone has a problem with itRob, even though he is on a bye, he made the playoffs.  179 points by people in the consolation bracket doesn't interest me.

Lowest Scorer of the Week: Tommy

Luckiest Team of the Week: Jordan had a really low score, but it doesn't matter because he has a bye.

Unluckiest Team of the Week:  Skyler, because it's not anyone on a bye, or either of the winners, and his game was closer than Tommy's

Game Previews

Ren vs Rob: Ren has 1 on Thursday and 3 on primetime.  Rob has one on primetime.

Trevor vs Jordan: Trevor has 3 on Thursday and 3 on primetime. Jordan has 2 on Thursday night and 1 on primetime.

In order, best of luck next week to Trevor, then Ren, then Jordan, then the apocalypse, and then Rob since he has been working on jinxing me the last 2-3 weeks.

Week 13: Last Call for Playoff Teams

After prewriting most of my post last week, I was afraid I would make a lot of assumptions/mistakes and not fix them.  Turns out that was indeed what happened, so no prewriting this week.  However, I don't want to have to write for several hours tonight, so I will be writing a condensed version tonight.

Due to the Tyler loss, he was eliminated from the playoffs.  Due to the Rob win, he had a shot at securing a bye week.  Due to the Skyler loss, Rob secured his bye week, and Skyler dropped to the 3 seed.  The final playoff standings are (1) Jordan, (2) Rob, (3) Skyler, (4) Tommy, (5) Trevor, and (6) Ren.  That means Jordan will play the winner of Tommy and Trevor, and Rob will play the winner of Skyler and Ren.

Rapid Awards

Mario Kart Shout Out: Brady wins by a narrow margin.

Highest Scorer of the Week: Rob

Lowest Scorer of the Week: TJ -- though he would have tied Trevor with one more QB passing yard.

Luckiest Team of the Week: Ren -- even though he lost, he still made the playoffs

Unluckiest Team of the Week: Tyler -- Ren lost, which opened the door to him making the playoffs, but he couldn't overcome Jordan.  Hooray for being the top seed in the consolation bracket?

MVP: Tom Brady for turning things around and getting Rob the 2 seed.

LVP: The SOB who hurt Dalvin Cook.  I swear I'm not bitter.

Game previews

Skyler vs Ren:  Skyler has one player on Thursday night and three players in primetime.  Ren has no players on Thursday night and two players in primetime.

Trevor vs Tommy: Trevor has no players on Thursday night and one player in primetime. Tommy has no players on Thursday night and one player in primetime.

That is all for my quick recap.  I'm going to cry now.  Good luck to everyone, except Ren, next week.

Week 12: 3,4,5

3 people are still waiting for their fate, 4 people are in, 5 people are out...and there is only 1 week left to decide it all.  Time to see how we got there.

Skyler vs Brandon: In the battle of ineptitude, Skyler managed to escape from Brandon off of the best game Fournette has had this season. Fournette had 1 touchdown all season before this game, and he got two TD's alone this game.  Skyler also got a solid boost from Jared Cook (the only other guy to get above 20 for his team). The loss eliminates Brandon from the playoffs.

Brady vs Tommy:  Brady was hurting during the early games but Derrick Henry kept him alive, and then George Kittle made it a game, and Cooks and Zuerlein brought it home.  Unfortunately, none of it mattered because Ren won, and his win eliminates Brady.  This was the nail-biter of the night strictly on points.

Ren vs Matt:  In the most important game of the week, Ren's win officially eliminated Brandon, Brady, and Matt in one fell swoop.  This was actually one of the more evenly matched and better scoring games of the week. Jameis put up 30, and another five players of Ren's got in the mid-to-high teens (15-19).  Matt was let down by Amari C0.00per.  If Cooper even hit his average (18.8), he would have won the game for Matt.

Trevor vs Rob: In the second most important game of the week, Rob beat Trevor to move up to the 3 seed and the leader of the division (based on the points tiebreaker).  In a weird twist on normal fantasy football, Saquon Barkley scored his 2nd lowest week on the season (when he was healthy/played) while Baker Mayfield put up his season-high for Rob's big week.  The win clinches a playoff spot for Rob.  The silver lining for Trevor is that he already clinched a playoff spot, and that he still has a shot to win his division next week.

TJ vs Tyler:  TJ keeps beeing projected to win early Sunday, but then something happens, and his projection drops to just barely losing.  Jarvis Landy and Will Fuller combined for 57.8 points which is great -- but the rest of his team combined for another 50ish points.  Interestingly enough, Tyler's players tried to lose the game, but Tucker came through big for him in the end.  Tyler's win keeps him in 7th place and still alive in the playoff hunt.  He kept his season going by getting 20+ points each from Watson, Chubb, and Beckham.  This was the spiritual nail-biter of the night.  Tyler only pulled ahead later in the 4th, but it still wasn't a guarantee because TJ's TE promptly made a catch to keep him alive.

Kyle vs Jordan:  Jordan wasn't projected to win, but Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram don't care.  They did what they normally do, took over the real game, and led Jordan to a victory, and practically the 1 seed

Award Season

Mario Kart Shout Out: Skyler takes the top spot with only Brady trying to compete.  Long gone are the days of everyone in the league trying to outdo each other.  Hopefully, the app will add multi-player soon.

Highest Scorer of the Week: Jordan managed to narrowly win this over Ren.  Lamar and Ingram are unreal, and they will be scary in the playoffs.

Lowest Scorer of the Week: Brandon was the front runner for this going into Monday night, but the Rams and their -2 points solidified this award Monday night.

Luckiest Team of the Week: Skyler won this award, and it wasn't even close.  He was the 3rd lowest scorer of the week, but he somehow managed to play the lowest scorer of the week and got an undeserved win.

Unluckiest Team of the Week: Brady outscored 7 other people, but still lost -- plus he got unlucky that his fate wasn't in his hands' thanks to Matt.

MVP of the Week: This should probably go to Lamar Jackson because he dominates but in a week of firsts (that's some foreshadowing for you on the next award), this award will go to a kicker - Justin Tucker.  His last field goal put Tyler up for good in a game that he had to win to keep his playoff hopes alive.

LVP of the Week: I have always used this spot to shout out players who score 5 points or less, but this week, I will give it to 1 man.  1 is a compliment because he scored 0.00 and 3 teams playoff lives depended on him, and he couldn't come through in the clutch.  Congrats to Amari Cooper for being the only man to pull off the solo LVP award this season.

Game Previews

North

Skyler 9-3 (2) vs Brady 4-8 (10):  Skyler has three players on Thanksgiving and six players in primetime.  Brady has three players on Thanksgiving and no players in primetime.

Brandon 4-8 (9) vs Tommy 8-4 (5):  Brandon has no players on Thanksgiving and three players in primetime.  Tommy has five players on Thanksgiving and two players in primetime.

South

Trevor 8-4 (2) vs Matt 4-8 (8):  Trevor has no players on Thanksgiving and two players in primetime.  Matt has six players on Thanksgiving and one player in primetime.

Ren 7-5 (6) vs Rob 8-4 (3):  Ren has five players on Thanksgiving and no players in primetime.  Rob has one player on Thanksgiving and four players in primetime.

West

Kyle 2-10 (11) vs TJ 2-10 (12):  Kyle has three players on Thanksgiving and one player in primetime.  TJ has three players on Thanksgiving and one player in primetime.

Tyler 6-6 (7) vs Jordan 10-2 (1):  Tyler has four players on Thanksgiving and two players in primetime.  Jordan has three players on Thanksgiving and two players in primetime.

Playoff Scenarios

Jordan:  The only way he could lose the one seed is if he loses, Skyler wins, and if Skyler outscores Jordan by 126 points.  So he's not losing the one seed.

Skyler:  Currently the 2 seed, could get the 1 seed (see above), and would only drop to the 3 seed if he loses and Rob or Trevor win, and then he loses to that winner on the points tie-breaker.  He could drop to the 4 seed (or even the 5 seed) if Tommy wins, Skyler loses, and Tommy outscores Skyler by about 90 points.

Rob:  Currently the 3 seed, could get the 2 seed (see above) and could drop between 4 and 6 depending on if people match/pass him on wins, and also if people pass him on points (almost impossible given his points lead)

Trevor:  Currently the 4 seed, could get the 2 seed if he wins, Skyler and Rob lose, and he outscores Skyler by about 70 points.  He could drop to 6 depending on the points tie-breaker.

Tommy: Currently the 5 seed, could drop to the 6 see if he loses and Ren wins.  He could move up to the 2 seed if Skyler, Rob, and Trevor lose, and if he outscored Skyler by about 90 points.

Ren: Currently the 6 seed, could move up to the 4 seed if he wins, and a couple of the 8 win teams lose, and if Ren outscores them enough to move up on points.  He could drop out of the playoffs if he loses and Tyler wins.

Tyler: Currently the 7 seed, could move up to the 6 seed if he wins and Ren loses.

Everyone else: Eliminated

That's all for this week.  Good luck to everyone, except Brady, next week.

Week 11: Three Teams Lock Up Playoff Spots

Three teams (Jordan, Skyler, Trevor) have locked up playoff spots, and still only two people have been eliminated.  After the wins/losses this week, the number of wins to lock in a playoff spot is 8.  8 wins gets you in, 7 means you can get in if you have the tiebreaker on points, and 6 is likely eliminated.  As soon as Ren wins a game, 6 wins will not be enough to get in.

Skyler vs Tommy: Tommy put on a clinic.  He beat everyone by 30 this week (spoiler alert on highest scorer of the week), and Skyler was his victim this week. Four players over 20, and two of them over 30 will really do the trick.  Skyler didn't have a bad week, but it wasn't a great week outside of Dak. This was the defacto bonanza as it was the highest-scoring game of the week.  Tommy was the one who dragged this matchup to the bonanza title.

Brady vs Brandon: Brady didn't quite put on the clinic Tommy did, but he had a top 3 week, and went against a lower-scoring team this week to get the win, and kept his season alive with the win.  Brady got a huge game from Josh Allen and a really good game from Michael Gallup.  Brandon suffered from a big bye week pile up, but looks to bounce back next week.

Rob vs Matt: In the nail-biter of the night, Rob was able to ride Rivers and Kelce to a victory.  The victory puts Rob into the 7 win group, and with his large margin in the "points for" column, it will be nearly impossible for Rob to miss the playoffs at this point.  His win keeps him in the hunt for the division win, as well as a bye week.  Matt's loss puts a damper on his playoff potential.  It was also the battle of ineptitude as they combined for the lowest scoring matchup.

Trevor vs Ren: Trevor has a great week with solid weeks from just about everyone on his team, and a great game from a few players.  He stays in 3rd, but has a good chance to move up for the 2 seed with Skyler's loss.  His win also guarantees that he will make the playoffs.  Ren's loss keeps Matt, Brandon, and Brady's playoff chances alive.

Jordan vs TJ: The matchup between the number 1 seed and number 11 seed went about as well as you could expect.  His Raven's stack of Jackson and Ingram are going to be a big problem come playoff time.  We can only hope that they somehow crap the bad against the same team, but they don't have a bad matchup in the playoffs.  With Skyler's loss, he has a one-game lead for the 1 seed, as well as a substantial points lead over the two teams with 8 wins. For him to miss out on a bye week, he would have to lose out, and have Skyler and Trevor win out.

Kyle vs Tyler:  In the upset of the week, Kyle pulls the upset, and actually was a top 4 scoring team this week.  If he keeps it up, he will be a solid team in the consolation bracket.  Tyler is a game behind Ren in the wildcard, but would pass him on the tiebreaker if he can catch up on wins.  Sadly they are not in the same division, and it won't come down to a head-to-head matchup.

Award Season

Mario Kart Shout Out:  TJ wins the award this week.  It was a tough week on the scores, but TJ gets the top spot.

Highest Scorer of the Week: As was previously discussed above, Tommy put the beat down on everyone this week, and won this award by 30 points.

Lowest Score of the Week: It's deja vu all over again for Tyler.  Somehow he wins this award two weeks in a row.  Deshaun Watson craps the bed and only has one more bad matchup this season.  Otherwise, Tyler with Watson should be fine.

Luckiest Team of the Week: Rob wins the award this week by being the lowest-scoring winner, and by doing so in the nail-biter of the night.

Unluckiest Team of the Week: Skyler is the highest-scoring loser, but he finished in 6th, so it wasn't that unlucky.  Instead, it will go to Matt who almost won, but was betrayed by the Mahomes throwing the ball too many times to Kelce.

MVP of the Week: This one will actually go to Travis Kelce.  He was the one who got Rob the narrow victory in an important game.

LVP(s) of the Week: Sammy Watkins, Kaimi Fairbairn, TJ Hockenson, Greg Zuerlein, Mohamed Sanu, Josh Lambo, Raheem Mostert, Marquise Brown, the Steelers DST, Brian Hill, Joey Slye, the Redskins DST, Ronald Jones, Adrian Peterson, Matt Prater, the Vikings DST, James Conner, Kenny Golladay, Tyreek Hill, Damien Williams, Gerald Everett, Juju Smith-Schuster, Deshaun Watson, and the Cowboys DST.

Game Previews

North

Skyler 8-3 (2) vs Brandon 4-7 (9): Skyler has one player on Thursday night and no players in primetime.  He has six players on bye. Brandon has one player on Thursday night and four players in primetime.  He has two players on bye.

Brady 4-7 (10) vs Tommy 7-4 (5): Brady has no players on Thursday night and five players in primetime.  He has one player on bye. Tommy has no players on Thursday night and no players in primetime.  He has two players on bye.

South

Matt 4-7 (8) vs Ren 6-5 (6): Matt has one player on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  He has three players on bye. Ren has no players on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  He has two players on bye. This will be one of the two biggest games of the week as 3 people could be eliminated depending on the outcome.

Trevor 8-3 (3) vs Rob 7-4 (4): Trevor has three players on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  He has three players on bye. Rob has two players on Thursday night and three players in primetime.  He has three players on bye. This looks to be the weekly bonanza, and one of the two biggest games of the week. If Trevor wins, he wins the division and locks up a top 3 seed.

West

TJ 2-9 (12) vs Tyler 5-6 (7): TJ has one player on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  He has three players on bye. Tyler has two players on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  He has no players on bye.

Kyle 2-9 (11) vs Jordan 9-2 (1): Kyle has one player on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  He has three players on bye. Jordan has no players on Thursday night and four players in primetime.  He has two players on bye.

Playoff Scenarios

Jordan: Locked down a top 3 seed, and a win will essentially lock up a bye week.

Skyler: Is in the playoffs, and a win should give him the division title and would lock up a top 3 seed.

Trevor: Is in the playoffs, and a win will give him the division title and would lock up a top 3 seed.

Rob: A win will put him in first in the division, and will guarantee him a playoff spot. A Tyler loss also guarantees him a playoff spot.

Tommy: A win will guarantee him a playoff spot.  A win and a Skyler loss will have him tied for the division lead, but behind on tiebreaker. A Tyler loss also guarantees him a playoff spot.

Ren: A win would eliminate Brandon, Matt, and Brady.  He needs to stay a game ahead of Tyler to avoid being eliminated on tiebreaker.  A loss and a Tyler win would move him from the 6 to the 7 seed.

Tyler: A loss with a Ren win would eliminate him from the playoffs. A win and a Ren loss moves him to the 6 seed.  If he and Ren have the same result, it will come down to week 13.

Matt: A loss will eliminate him from the playoffs.

Brandon:  A loss or a Ren win will eliminate him from the playoffs.

Brady: A loss or a Ren win will eliminate him from the playoffs.

Kyle: Eliminated

TJ: Eliminated

That's all for this week --  good luck to everyone, except Brandon, next week.

Week 10: It was the Best of Times..

...it was the worst of times.  The top 3 seeds won this week, so they further cement themselves as the top 3.  The bottom three seeded teams lost, so they didn't jump up in the standings.  It was mostly the middle teams that ended up being jumbled and moved around, including Ren, who has moved into the playoffs, and Tyler, who has moved out of the playoffs.  Tyler is the lone team at .500, and there are a few teams breathing down his neck to try and make the playoffs.  It should be a fun three-week race to playoffs.

Skyler vs TJ:  TJ was able to keep it close for a while, and even had a lead before going into Sunday night's game, but Skyler was able to pull ahead for good with 70 points from Dak, Dalvin, and Diggs.  Half of TJ's team scored double digits, including 25 points from Jarvis Landry, but he was let down by a couple of LVP performances. Due to the loss for TJ and Rob's win, TJ has been banished to the shadow realm with Kyle.  There are now 6 teams with 6+ wins, and TJ maxes out at 5 potential wins this season.

Jordan vs Tommy:  In a battle between first 1st place and 4th place, 1st place Jordan shows why is the top dog after dismantling Tommy.  Jordan got 60+ points from Lamar Jackson and Tyreek Hill, and for good measure, his kicker outscored 5 different players on Tommy's team.  Tommy left 38 points on the bench in Christian Kirk, which would have made the game a lot more entertaining going into Monday night, but wouldn't have led to a win.

Matt vs Brandon:  In a great game that went back and forth, Brandon finally pulled ahead when it counted thanks to the Seattle duo of Wilson and Metcalf.  Matt stays ahead of Brandon on the tiebreaker, but they currently have the same record and are sitting just outside of the playoffs.  This was big for Brandon as it kept Matt from joining the club of people who are a game ahead of Brandon.  As they combined for the high score (and helped by a back and forth game) this was the weekly bonanza, as well as the nail-biter of the night

Rob vs Brady:  In what was nearly the nail-biter of the night, Brady was not able to come from behind, in part to one of his players getting hurt during the Monday Night Football game. Brady's playoff hopes are still alive, but they are hanging on by a thread.  With a loss, Rob would have been the 6 seed, but his win moves him to the 4 seed and keeps a division title and a first-round bye still in play.  As the league's leading scorer, he would win any tie-breaker -- now all he needs is the right combination of wins and losses to move up.  Also, Rob is the DST whisperer.  His DST got 26 points this week, he has only had three weeks all season where they scored under 20, and only one week where they scored single digits.  His recent trade of the Patriots DST is an interesting move.

Ren vs Tyler: Ren had a solid game, and Tyler had a floor game (but with only one LVP), which meant that Ren was able to comfortably win the game.  The loss puts Tyler just outside of the playoffs and puts Ren from just outside of the playoffs to 5th place.  This was the biggest game as far as team movement, and how much it hurt/helped each team involved.  They are still only a game apart, so it isn't the end of the world, but it makes for an entertaining narrative.

Trevor vs Kyle:  In the nail-biter of Sunday night, Trevor and Kyle Rudolph were able to put up enough points to top Kyle and Ezekiel Elliot (who was actually drafted by Trevor, and failed to score double digits for the first time all year -- so maybe he has been a secret agent this whole time?).  The win keeps Trevor in 3rd place, with the potential to battle for a bye week in the last 3 weeks.  Despite the disparity in the rankings, this ended up being the battle of ineptitude as they combined for the lowest-scoring game of the week.

Award Season

Mario Kart Shout Out: Skyler had the most points by a narrow margin, and gets the weekly shout out.

Highest Scorer of the Week: Jordan held off Brandon by 2.5 points to win this coveted award, and further cement his hold on the number 1 seed.

Lowest Scorer of the Week: As was mentioned in the game recaps, Tyler had a floor game this week for his team, and unfortunately for him it was also the floor game of the league.  Tyler beat out Kyle for this award by .5 points.

Luckiest Team of the Week:  Trevor wins as the lowest-scoring winner, and was helped by the fact that Kyle Rudolph somehow outdueled Zeke on Sunday night.  What a world we live in.

Unluckiest Team of the Week: Matt wins the award this week for several reasons:  He was the highest-scoring loser, he lost late on Monday night, and he was in the nail-biter of the night.  Better luck next week Matt.

MVP of the Week: In a somewhat contested race, Lamar Jackson wins the award this week.  He nearly scored 40 for Jordan, who was the best team this week.  Others in contention included someone from Brandon's team and someone from Rob's team who helped them pull through the narrow victory.  They each had at least 2 candidates, so it made sense to just give it to Lamar Jackson.

LVP(s) of the Week: David Johnson, Frank Gore, the Saints DST, Matt Breida, the Panthers DST, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Gesicki, Greg Zuerlein, Cooper Kupp, Zach Pascal, Jared Goff, and the Giants DST.

Game Previews

This week sees a return to division games, which makes them a little more intense and important.

North

Skyler 8-2 (2) vs Tommy 6-4 (6):  Skyler has no players on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  He has two players on bye. Tommy has no players on Thursday night and no players in primetime.  He has one player on bye. 

Brady 3-7 (10) vs Brandon 4-6 (9):  Brady has no players on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  He has one player on bye. Brandon has no players on Thursday night and three players in primetime.  He has six players on bye. 

South

Rob 6-4 (4) vs Matt 4-6 (8):  Rob has two players on Thursday night and three players in primetime.  He has one player on bye. Matt has no players on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  He has two players on bye.

Trevor 7-3 (3) vs Ren 6-4 (5):  Trevor has no players on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  He has one player on bye. Ren has no players on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  He has one player on bye.

West

Jordan 8-2 (1) vs TJ 2-8 (11):  Jordan has one player on Thursday night and three players in primetime.  He has one player on bye. TJ has three players on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  He has three players on bye.

Kyle 1-9 (12) vs Tyler 5-5 (7):  Kyle has one player on Thursday night and three players in primetime.  He has one player on bye. Tyler has two players on Thursday night and three players in primetime.  He has two players on bye.

Playoff Scenarios

Skyler:  With a win, he will lock up the North Division and will secure at least the 3 seed for the playoffs.

Tommy:  A win would keep him in the top 6 and a chance to win the division, a loss could see him drop out of the top 6, but he cannot secure a playoff spot or be eliminated this week.

Brandon: A win would keep him alive, a loss with wins by Tommy, Rob, and Ren would eliminate him from the playoffs.

Brady:  A loss will eliminate him from the playoffs.  If he wins and Tommy, Rob, and Ren all win, he would still be eliminated.  So Brady needs a win, and would like to see Skyler, Trevor, and Matt win to keep as many paths to playoffs alive as possible.

Trevor: A win would keep him at the top of the division and in the race for a bye week.  A loss would open the door for Rob to take the division lead.  He cannot secure a playoff spot, division title, or be eliminated this week.

Rob: A win would keep him in contention for the top of the division and in the race for a bye week.  He would still have a shot at the division title with a loss and a Trevor win, but it would be an uphill battle.  Even with a loss, he should stay at least as the 6 seed. He cannot secure a playoff spot, division title, or be eliminated this week.

Ren: A win would keep him in contention for the top of the division and in the race for a bye week. With a loss, he could drop out of the top 6. He cannot secure a playoff spot, division title, or be eliminated this week.

Matt: A win would keep him alive, a loss with wins by Tommy and Ren would eliminate him from the playoffs.

Jordan: With a win or a Tyler loss, he will lock up the West Division and will secure at least the 3 seed for the playoffs.

Tyler: Needs a win to keep up in the wild card race.  A loss would not eliminate him from the playoffs, but it would be near impossible to get in if he loses and Tommy, Rob, and Ren all win.

TJ:  Eliminated last night with his loss and Rob's win.

Kyle: Previously eliminated.

This should be a fun week for the playoffs.  Remember that the trade deadline is the 24th.  Good luck to everyone in their playoff race, except Tommy.

Week 9: Skipping it this Week...

...because no one wants to read this crap.  That's more or less what Kyle tells me every week about my post.  Now that he no longer defeated, I was thinking I would skip it this week. On a more serious note (because this fantasy football is very serious), there were some surprising upsets that will make the playoff race more interesting.  So let's get to the game recaps.

Skyler vs Rob:  Skyler was able to survive an early game INT from Dak and was able to walk away with a win.  He was led to victory by Tyler Lockett and the recently acquired Derrick Henry.  Rob had a solid week from every player, except for the Patriots -- they were averaging 25 points per week and decided to only put up 5 this week.  This was their first game all season where they got under double digits.  By a margin of 2 points, this was the bonanza of the week.

Matt vs Tommy: Matt continues to wrack up losses without Mahomes, and Julio being on bye certainly didn't help his cause.  Even with those key pieces missing, he still had a great week -- Tommy just had a better one by a narrow margin.  McCaffrey led him yet again to the promised land, but he had some help from some unusual suspects in Duke Johnson and Marvin Jones, who combined for 45 points.  That was all with Adam Thielen getting hurt early in the game and causing Tommy to play short-handed.  Tommy would have had high-scorer of the week on lock if not for the Thielen injury.  This ended up being the nail-biter of the night after a late score by Amari Cooper gave Tommy a big scare.

TJ vs Trevor: TJ started strong with a great game from Jimmy G, but his team fell apart after that, and he lost by 30.  Trevor didn't have his best week of the year, but he got it done this week with a combination of solid (over 15 points) games from half of his team.  The win gets him from 7th to 3rd, and in the driver seat for his division and a playoff spot.  This ended up being the weekly battle of ineptitude.

Jordan vs Ren:  Ren ran into the bye week from hell, and his team wasn't able to overcome.  He scored less than 90 points this week but has been averaging around 125 points per week before this game.  Jordan holds onto the number 1 spot with his victory this week.

Tyler vs Brady:  For a while, this was the nail-biter of the night, but Brady was able to keep Tyler an arm's length away in addition to Tommy and Matt stealing the award away late.  Brady was able to lead wire to wire as he got the early lead with the 49ers/Cardinals game and kept it through the week -- Tyler never led once in this matchup.  Tyler was always looking up at Brady this whole week.  I may have been asked to state in as many ways as possible how this scenario happened.  I can neither confirm nor deny it.  This win keeps Brady's playoff hopes alive for a little longer.

Kyle vs Brandon: The Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns broke out the champaign tonight because Kyle will not be joining them as a defeated team.  There was some controversy surrounding Brandon starting an inactive player.  As Kyle's best friend, some had called into question the integrity of the move, and there may have been accusations that Brandon promised Kyle a win if Kyle got him into the league this offseason.  But seriously, Westbrook was a late scratch, and no foul play is suspected.  Besides, the last-minute TD by the Dallas DST means Kyle would have won even if Brandon had started Sanu.  The Cowboys DST was Kyle's leading scorer with 22 points, and seven of his nine starters ended with at least 13.9 points.  Outside of Brandon's pair of Seahawks, he had a lousy week and looks to bounce back next week.

Award Season

Mario Kart Shout Out: Brady wins the shout out this week by dominating by several thousand points.

Highest Scorer of the Week: Skyler snuck this out over Tommy with a late TD throw from Dak.

Lowest Scorer of the Week: TJ had a real shot at not getting this award, but then Sterling Shephard was a late addition to the concussion protocol, and it caused TJ to miss out on not winning this award by less than 2 points.

Luckiest Team of the Week: Trevor wins the award as there were 8 teams who scored more than him, but he still had a matchup that got him a win.

Unluckiest Team of the Week:  Matt ends as the third-highest scorer of the week, but still ends up losing.

MVP of the Week: Christian McCaffrey wins the award this week as he led Tommy to a win.  Tommy needed every one of the 37 points as he narrowly beat Matt by 5 points.

LVP(s) of the Week: Steffon Diggs (2.6), the Patriots DST (5), Dan Bailey (5), Adam Thielen (0), Robbie Gould (4), Frank Gore (1.5), Royce Freeman (2.4), Darius Slayton (1.4), Juju Smith-Schuster (4.6), Zane Gonzalez (5), the Broncos DST (4), Tarik Cohen (3.6), the 49ers DST (4), the Bears DST (5), Allen Robinson (1.6), LeSean McCoy (1.9), Aaron Jones (3.9), Mark Andrews (4.1), Dede Westbr00k, Josh Lambo (3), the Seahawks DST (3).

Game Previews

Skyler (2) vs TJ (11): Skyler has one player on Thursday night and six players in primetime. He has one player on bye. TJ has no players on Thursday night and one player in primetime. He has two players on bye.

Jordan (1) vs Tommy (4): Jordan has two players on Thursday night and two players in primetime. He has two players on bye. Tommy has one player on Thursday night and three players in primetime. He has two players on bye. Based on the rankings, this looks to be the game of the week.

Matt (8) vs Brandon (9): Matt has one player on Thursday night and six players in primetime. He has one player on bye. Brandon has no players on Thursday night and three players in primetime. He has four players on bye. Based on the ranking, this looks to be the battle of ineptitude, but I don't actually believe that it will be.  It also looks to be the nail-biter of the night with the number of players in primetime.

Rob (5) vs Brady (10): Rob has one player on Thursday night and one player in primetime. He has three players on bye. Brady has no players on Thursday night and four players in primetime. He has three players on bye.

Ren (7) vs Tyler (6): Ren has one player on Thursday night and one player in primetime. He has three players on bye. Tyler has no players on Thursday night and no players in primetime. He has two players on bye.

Trevor (3) vs Kyle (12): Trevor has three players on Thursday night and no players in primetime. He has five players on bye. Kyle has no players on Thursday night and two players in primetime. He has five players on bye.

This week is crazier than I expected with the number of players on bye weeks and players in primetime games.  With four weeks left to go, each win is important, and we are coming down to the wire.  Speaking of wins, the top two scorers (Rob and Tyler) are in fifth and sixth place, and two games out of first and second, and one game out of third and fourth.  They have the points to serve as a tie-breaker if they can catch up on wins.

Jordan vs Tommy will be big for the standings race this week.  If Jordan wins, he will stay in first, and if Tyler or Rob win, Tommy will drop down beneath the winner(s).  If Tommy wins, Jordan should stay top 4, and it would keep Tyler and Rob from moving up (though Trevor plays a role in that as well).

Of course, there are other scenarios in play, but those are the main ones.  The people at 7 and below should be cheering for Tyler and Rob.  If Tyler and Rob stay at 5th and 6th, it will keep people from moving up because they are so dominant on points in any tie-breaker scenario.  The lower teams should cheer for Rob and Tyler, while also hoping Trevor and Tommy continue to lose.

Anyway, best of luck to everyone, except TJ, this week.

Week 8: It's Rob and Tyler's World...

...and we are just living in it.  They were the two highest scorers this week (each over 170), and have scored nearly 100 points more than the 3rd highest-scoring team.  They are still in 3rd and 4th though because of some unlucky losses.  In other sad news, Kyle has been eliminated from this year's playoff contention with his loss to Brady.  Let's get to the game reviews.

Skyler vs Matt:  Skyler was able to hang on to a win, even though Matt's DST (Pittsburgh) put up some really good numbers on Miami on Monday night.  Neither team really had any great performances, but Dalvin Cook and Julio Jones were each team's best players.  Skyler moves up to second thanks to Trevor's loss.

Tommy vs Rob: This week's pillaging, plundering, raiding biggest win goes to Rob over Tommy with a 70 point win.  Rob didn't have a single person score over 30, but had five people who put up 20+ points.  Tommy had two people combine for over 56.9 points.  The other seven of his starters combined for less than that.  That kind of inconsistency will do you in.  The win puts Rob at 3rd overall, and first in his division (170 points over Trevor).  If Rob can catch up to Skyler and/or Jordan in wins, he will be in a great position to get a top 2 seed and get a bye week.  Rob is currently the only person in the league over 1200 points.

Brandon vs Tyler: Tyler put a proper beat down on Brandon, and yet this was still the weekly bonanza.  With 3 players going over 30 points (and 1 over 40), Brandon didn't have much of a chance.  The other 6 players on his team combined for 65ish points.  The benefit here is Tyler has several players that can win him a week, but if they all miss, you get unlucky and drop a week.  That's the kind of move that can cause you to drop a week and drop you back in the standings, and if it happens in the playoffs, there's no coming back from it.  All that being said, if he can catch up to Skyler and/or Jordan in wins, he will be in a great position to get a top 2 seed and get a bye week. Tyler is in the same division as Jordan, so if he can get past Jordan, he has a real shot at the 1 seed.

Brady vs Kyle: Based on the standings last week, this was the front-runner for the battle of ineptitude -- and it lived up to the hype.  This was the lowest-scoring game of the week, as well as the nail-biter of the (Monday) night.  Kyle had an interesting trade this week -- he traded away Le'Veon Bell and Zach Ertz for Ezekiel Elliot (on bye).  That trade cost him 2.4 points, which thankfully wasn't enough to make a difference this week in the win column.  With his loss, he is playing for the consolation bracket, and the potential #1 pick next year.  Brady doubled up his season-long victory total by riding on the back of Tevin Coleman and his 4 touchdowns.

Ren vs TJ: Ren's win this week keeps him in the top 6, as well as in the 1,000 point club (the same people in the top 6).  Ren got his win by getting a good game out of Jameis Winston, and a great game from Latavius Murray.  Amazingly, TJ had a 30 point game from the newly reinstated Drew Brees, but wasn't able to overcome Ren's solid-to-really-good week.

Trevor vs Jordan: In what was billed as the potential game of the week, this one didn't live up to the hype.  Trevor's team didn't show up today, but he did make some moves to get Le'Veon Bell and Zach Ertz.  It could work out for him long term, but we'll have to wait and see what happens.  Jordan got the W behind some really good performance by having five people over 20 points each.  The win keeps him in first overall, and has him in the driver seat for his division.

Award Season

Mario Kart Shout Out: Number 11 in the standings, but number 1 in Mario Kart, give it up for TJ.

Highest Scorer of the Week: This contest was the second closest game this week, but Tyler's kicker is able to get him the win as the Highest Scorer of the Week.  This is his second time winning the award this season.

Lowest Scorer of the Week: TJ almost won this award, but he got bailed out on Monday night.  The actual winner is Trevor, as he is the only one to not break 100 this week.

Luckiest Team of the Week: This award will go to Brady.  There were only 4 teams he could have beat this week, and played one of them.  I know he doesn't care how he won, he's just happy that he won.

Unluckiest Team of the Week:  Brandon was the 5th highest scorer of the week, but still came away with a loss because he played the highest scorer of the week.

MVP of the Week: Tevin Coleman wins the award this week for getting 37.80 points (not the leading player) on Brady's team (not the highest scorer). Brady only won by 6 points in a week that he needed a win for his playoff hopes, and Tevin Coleman was the man to take him to the promised land.

LVP(s) of the Week: The Jets DST (4), Corey Davis (2.9), Darrel Williams (1), TJ Hockenson (3.1), Brandin C00ks, the Packers DST (5), Ty Johnson (4.8), Greg Olsen (3.3), Frank Gore (3.4), Demarcus Robinson (2.6), Gerald Everett (3.5), Kyle Rudolph (4.7), Larry Fitzgerald (2.8), Joey Sly3.

Game Previews

Skyler (2) vs Rob (3): Skyler has one player on Thursday night and three players in primetime. He has no players on bye. Rob has no players on Thursday night and eight players in primetime (not all of his starters are on primetime, but I've decided to include bench players as well). He has two players on bye.  Based on the standings, this looks like the potential game of the week.  This also has the potential to be the nail-biter of the night will all of the primetime players.

Matt (8) vs Tommy (7): Matt has no players on Thursday night and one player in primetime. He has one player on bye. Tommy has two players on Thursday night and no players in primetime. He has two players on bye.

TJ (11) vs Trevor (5): TJ has one player on Thursday night and two players in primetime. He has four players on bye. Trevor has one player on Thursday night and no players in primetime. He has no players on bye.

Jordan (1) vs Ren (6): Jordan has one player on Thursday night and five players in primetime. He has one player on bye. Ren has no players on Thursday night and no players in primetime. He has five players on bye.

Tyler (4) vs Brady (10): Tyler has no players on Thursday night and three players in primetime. He has two players on bye. Brady has five players on Thursday night and three players in primetime. He has five players on bye.  This game has the potential to be the battle of ineptitude simply because of the large number of players (and how important those players are) on bye.

Kyle (12) vs Brandon (9): Kyle has no players on Thursday night and one player in primetime. He has four players on bye. Brandon has no players on Thursday night and two players in primetime. He has two players on bye.  Based on the standings, this has the potential to be the battle of ineptitude.

That does it for this week.  Good luck to everyone, except Rob, next week.

Week 7: Halfway There

It hurts to say, but we are already halfway through the regular season.  This week took years off of my life.  But it's over now, and we're headed into the back half of the season.  Through 7 games, eight teams have a winning record.  Historically, 6 wins could make the playoffs, and it was incredibly rare to miss the playoffs at 7 wins, but with so many teams with high win totals, it might take 8 wins to secure a playoff spot.  Time for some game recaps.

Skyler vs Kyle: This was the nail-biter of the night.  Skyler ended up winning by 2.14.  The Jets and Nugent combined for 9 points tonight for Skyler, and Le'Veon got 8.6 tonight for Kyle.  It was a nerve-wracking week that actually came down to the defensive matchup.  Skyler dropped the Chargers and picked up the Jets (a net loss of 2 points), and Kyle proceeded to drop the Ravens and pick up the Charger (a net loss of 15 points).  Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

Ren vs Brady: In one of the lower scoring games of the week, Ren scored 108, and managed to beat Brady by almost 30.  It was an ugly week all around for them.  Latavious carried Ren to victory, with Austin Hooper having a TD in back to back weeks.  He has had double-digit weeks the last 5 weeks and is actually the top-scoring TE of the season.  That surprises me, but it's been a nice benefit to Ren. Two benches would have beaten Brady's starting lineup (including Brady's own bench(

Trevor vs Brandon: The weekly bonanza, Trevor took Brandon behind the woodshed and dropped 180 on him.  A little bit of spoiler, but Trevor would have destroyed everyone this week (destroyed being 15-20 points at least). Four of Trevor's players combined for over 125 points -- those four players would have beat 9 other teams by themselves. A Rog and Trevor's two lowest starters would have outscored Trevor, and nearly Tyler as well.

TJ vs Rob:  I need to find a new title for biggest blowout besides "biggest blowout", but this was it for the week.  Rob was 7 points away from tripling TJ's score.  Robs Defense and QB were enough to beat TJ on their own.  Three benches would have beat TJ this week.  Rob's defense continues to be unreal.  They have 183 points on the year.  That's more than every RB, WR, or TE, and only behind Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, and Deshaun Watson - it's unreal.  Rob is still the leading scorer in the league, but is somehow in 5th place -- it makes no sense.

Jordan vs Matt: Jordan beat Matt by 55.  Darren Waller was the only one to score over 30 for Jordan, which means his team had a really solid week overall. It didn't help that Matt didn't break 90 this week.  Mahomes getting hurt will do that to you.  No one getting over 20 on your team will also do that to you. He also is currently in 7th place after this week -- aka out of the playoffs.  We will see if this makes him more desperate for a trade.

Tyler vs Tommy: As the lowest score of the week, this was the battle of ineptitude -- neither of them broke 95 points.  You might be wondering how that happened to Tommy -- the answer is McCaffrey had a bye week. Tyler had a lot of people on bye as well, and the starters didn't end up pulling their weight.  Unfortunately for the rest of us, that means we will have to deal with these two at full strength (or close to it) the rest of the season.  The loss drops Tyler from 1st to 6th.  Not a great week for him. 

Award Season

Mario Kart Shout Out: Brady is destroying everyone and it's not even close.  Congrats to him -- I think he needs it this week.

Highest Scorer of the Week: Trevor won this and it wasn't even close.  The win and the points put him into second place.

Lowest Scorer of the Week: TJ managed to sneak this away from Tyler this week by 7 points.

Luckiest Team of the Week: Tommy was the lowest scoring winner this week, so he wins luckiest team.  I will do my best to not change my mind and give this award to Skyler for holding on to win by a narrow margin.

Unluckiest Team of the Week: Kyle was the highest scorer to lose, and he almost managed to win, but Le'Veon Bell let him down.

MVP of the Week: Aaron Rodger was the highest scorer of the week, and he was on the highest-scoring team of the week.

LVP(s) of the Week: David Johnson (0.2), the Jets DST (2), Philip Lindsay (4.2), the Chargers DST (4), Devonta Freeman (4.5), the Vikings DST (3), the Texans DST (3), Larry Fitzgerald (2.2), Darren Fells (4.7), Mohamed Sanu (1.3), Terry McLaurin (2.1), Matt Ryan (2.56), Damien Williams (2.6), Randall Cobb (4.9), Jordan Akins (3.7), Darius Slayton (4.8), Jake Elliot (4), Kenny Golladay (3.1), Noah Fant (1.7), David Montgomery (1.9), Rex Burkhead (0), Marquise G00dwin, Evan Engram (1.6),  Matt Breida (4.6), Kerryon Johnson (2.3), the Eagles DST (1).

Game Previews

Skyler (3) vs Matt (7): Skyler has two players on Thursday night and no players in primetime.  He has two players on bye. Matt has no players on Thursday night and three players in primetime.  He has one player on bye.

Tommy (4) vs Rob (5): Tommy has one player on Thursday night (though he might be out injured) and two players in primetime.  He has no players on bye. Rob has no players on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  He has one player on bye.

Brandon (9) vs Tyler (6): Brandon has one player on Thursday night and four players in primetime.  He has one player on bye. Tyler has no players on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  He has one player on bye.

Brady (11) vs Kyle (12): Brady has no players on Thursday night and no players in primetime.  He has one player on bye. Kyle has no players on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  He has two players on bye.  This is the front runner to be the battle of ineptitude.

Ren (8) vs TJ (10): Ren has one player on Thursday night and two players in primetime (depending on injury).  He has no players on bye. TJ has one player on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  He has one player on bye.

Trevor (2) vs Jordan (1): Trevor has no players on Thursday night and three players in primetime.  He has one player on bye. Jordan has no players on Thursday night and three players in primetime.  He has three players on bye.  Despite Jordan's bye week issues, this still has the potential to be the game of the week/bonanza.

I decided to look back at our history to see if we have ever had a start like this.  2013 was the closest we came, when the 7th place team was 4-3, but 8th place was 3-4.  We will see how this year pans out for everyone.  Wins will come at a premium the next few weeks.  It should be a fun 6 weeks.  Half of the games this week will feature teams with winning records going against each other.

Good luck to everyone except Matt next week.  Sorry for the delay in getting this posted.

Final RPI Update

This is my final output from my model.  Unless a few out of state scores get reported in the next 6 hours, this is what I believe the RPI output will be, or very close to it. Here is the link to the dashboard where the data can be found.


6A

5A

4A

3A

2A

UHSAA RPI Updated Friday October 18

This will be another post with screenshots of the brackets, and a link to the dashboard where the data can be found.

I will update the out of state information tonight once I am home and the games have gone final.  There is a chance that certain scores won't be recorded before tomorrow's release, and if that's the case, the game data won't be included.

I tried testing some of state opponent data to see how much it would change the current RPI if a team won or lost.  I was able to see a change as large as 0.02, and data as small as 0.0001 by changing different games to wins or losses.  What I am trying to say is that don't expect any drastic changes tonight, but if your team is very close to another team, and one of them has an out of state opponent, things could slightly change.

6A

5A

4A

3A

2A

UHSAA RPI Update Thursday 10-17 with Brackets

Lone Peak's appeal was overturned.  I updated the original dataset to show that -- because it is faster to use the original dashboard than the new one I added yesterday.  Also, to make the information easier to digest, I created some brackets and took screenshots that are below.  They aren't the easiest to read, but they are the best I could do on short notices.

*Edit - Please remember these aren't official.  If you haven't been following along all season, there were some very minor discrepancies between my model and the official model.  For whatever reason, it has only really affected East and Monticello.  There is a chance that they could be one spot lower than their current seed.

6A

5A

4A

3A

2A

RPI Update Wednesday, October 16th

With news that Lone Peak had to forfeit all of their games before tonight, I am publishing two datasets.  This dataset is giving Lone Peak losses for every game.  My original link is if Lone Peak wins their appeal and they don't lose any games.

Utah high school football playoff scenarios

With the UHSAA not releasing the RPI the last week, people are relying on data they captured almost two weeks ago to have any idea where their team stands.  I created my model with the purpose of giving Utah high school football fans something to look at when UHSAA decided to go dark right before the playoffs.  I also decided I should try and highlight the scenarios for playoff purposes.

This is infinitely trickier with RPI, because each team playing will be affected by its own game, the games of their previous 8-9 opponents, and the games of those opponents opponents.  If I was trying to evaluate every team's situation, I would have to do an impossibly large number of scenarios involving all of the teams I previously mentioned.  For the sake of time and sanity, I will simply look at how each team's RPI will be affected by a win or loss, in their last game.  The RPI will only be affected by the WP going up or down based on that win, and the OWP and OOWP will only go up or down based on playing the last opponent -- the in-depth version would have a lot more fluctuation in the OWP and OOWP.

I also only plan on looking at teams right near the cutoffs of different tiers.  So instead of analyzing all 27 teams in 6A, I'll look at the top seed, the teams right on the edge of getting a bye week, and the teams around the edge of getting a home game or an away game.  I will then proceed to do the same from 5A down to 2A.

6A
Corner Canyon has the number one seed locked down.  No result can change that. The top 5 seeds get a bye week in 6A.  At the moment, American Fork is the 5th seed with an RPI score of 0.63251.  Based on the basic tests I am doing, if a team has a score of 0.63 or higher, they should get a bye week.  Herriman is in 2nd place at 0.662982.  If they lost, and enough teams beneath them all won, Herriman would drop to at least 6th place and miss out on a bye week.  Lone Peak is currently in 9th, and they are the lowest team who could still get a bye week if everything goes their way.  They would need to win, and for basically everyone in front of them to lose, but they could, in theory, get a bye week.

For the bottom teams, West Jordan (17), Westlake (18), and Jordan (19) each have a chance at moving up and getting the 16 seed (from Davis), which is the lowest slot to get a home game.  Only one of those teams could move up though as Fremont looks locked at 15, and no one above Freemont can drop down below 15 either.  It looks like everyone at West (20) and below are eliminated from getting a home game.  Of course, they could get different matchups based on their seeding, so it still benefits those teams to win and get a better matchup, but they will have to play on the road no matter what.

5A
Salem Hills has the number one seed locked down. No result can change that. The top 6 seeds get a bye week in 5A.  At the moment, Highland is the 6th seed with an RPI score of 0.613438.  They play Brighton this week, who is currently the 7th seed.  Winner will get a bye week.  That is a huge game this week. Based on the basic tests I am doing, if a team has a score of 0.61 or higher, they should get a bye week. Provo is in 2nd place at 0.654425, if they lost and enough teams beneath them won, they could miss out on a bye week. Orem is currently in 9th, and they are the lowest team who could still get a bye week if everything goes their way. They would need to win, and for basically everyone in front of them to lose, but they could, in theory, get a bye week.

For the bottom teams, I cannot find any team below 16 seed Maple Mountain who can move up to host a first-round game.  It looks like teams from Box Elder (17) on down are playing for pride and better road matchups.

4A
Word of warning: Dixie/4A is why I created my model, so I'm going to spend more time here than with the classifications.

Park City is currently the number one seed.  I am not able to find a scenario that they lose the number one seed.  However, in the scenarios I try, Park City's RPI score gets very close to Sky View's -- so maybe if every single game in the state goes against what Park City needs, they could drop to the two seed.  I am not sure that scenario even exists, so it's pretty safe to say Park City will be the one seed in 4A.  4A is a little different than the other classifications.  In the other classifications, if you have a bye week, you will play someone who played the week before.  In 4A, there are 4 teams (7-10 seeds) who will earn a bye, but will play against a team in the 2nd round that also earned a bye in the first round.  I feel this is a result of too many teams making the playoffs, but that's not the point of this post.

The first cutoff happens at the 6 seed (Pine View).  They are currently the last team who will earn a bye, and play an opponent who had to play in the first round.  Region 9 has finished playing all of their games, so PV's fate rests in the hands of other teams.  If Mountain View beats Tooele (MV currently favored in RPI) and Ridgeline loses to Viewmont (Viewmont is a 5A team), and if Highland loses to Brighton (both 5A teams) PV could drop from the 6 seed to the 7 seed.  They would still have a bye week, but they would have to play a team coming off of a bye week as well.  If you are wondering why Ridgeline and Highland are involved they are the only teams that PV has played this year that will play this week, so PV's OWP could drop enough if those teams lose that it will drop PV in the standings.  If you are wondering why I care so much, I hold a special petty hate in my heart for PV that hasn't gone away in the 12+ years since I graduated, and probably never will.  Anyway, Mountain View is the only team from the group of 4 that can jump up past Pine View/Stansbury.

As far as I can tell, Sky View, Green Canyon, and Dixie can't drop out of the top 6 (they can't even drop out of the top 4 spots).  Green Canyon would drop below Dixie with a loss, and it looks like Sky View can't drop below the 2 seed.  They have an exhibition game this week which has no effect on the RPI calculation.

Tooele is the only team outside of the top 10 who could jump into the top 10 and get a bye week, and Mountain Crest and Snow Canyon appear to be the only teams who could fall out of the top 10.  There is a very small chance Desert Hills could fall out, but that would require their opponents to all do terrible, all of Snow Canyon's opponents to do great, and for Mountain Crest and Tooele to win, but I don't want to have to dig in-depth on DH's and SC's opponents to prove if it's actually possible.

The 16 seed looks like it will come down to Ridgeline and Ogden.  If Ridgeline wins (against a 5A team) they stay at 16 and will host a playoff game (Ogden), if Ogden wins (against Ben Lomond), and Ridgeline loses, Ogden will move up to 16 and would host Ridgeline the next week.  So it would appear that Ridgeline and Ogden will play each other in the first round -- the only question is where.

3A
Based on the fact that there are no bye weeks on the 3A bracket online, two of the eighteen teams won't make the playoffs in 3A.  No one has locked in the top seed yet. Manti, North Sanpete, and Morgan all have a realistic chance at the first seed.  Juab and Grantsville could get it if they get some help in the OWP/OOWP areas.

Currently, the teams from 7-13 all have a shot at the 7 or 8 seed and hosting a playoff game.  I don't know how realistic those chances are, but I found scenarios for Richfield (currently at 13) to move up to a host a playoff game.  So all of those teams have a lot on the line.

Looking at the two teams who will be eliminated, there are 4 teams in contention: South Sevier, Emery, Judge Memorial, and Carbon.  South Sevier and Carbon play each other this week, the loser is for sure eliminated.  If Carbon won and Judge Memorial lost, Judge Memorial would be eliminated.  But if Judge Memorial beats Juan Diego, Carbon will be eliminated even if they win. But if South Sevier beats Carbon, Judge Memorial would need to win, as well as needing Emery to lose.  The bottom 4 look like a crazy mess, it's getting too late to think about, and I still need to look at 2A.

2A
The number 1 seed is still up for grabs between Beaver and Milford.  Beaver has the inside track, but if they lose and Milford wins, Milford gets the one seed.  The 3 seed is also up for grabs between Millard and Duchesne.  Duchesne doesn't play this weekend, so it all comes down to Millard vs Enterprise.  If Millard wins, they get the 3 seed and the bye.  If they lose, Duchesne gets the bye and Millard has to play in the first round.

The 8 seed (aka the last team to host a playoff game) is between Monticello and Nort Summit and kind of Kanab (Kanab is currently in 7th, and can't finish worse than 8th).  If North Summit wins, they get the 7 seed (they play Kanab head to head), Kanab gets 8, Monticello gets 9.  If Monticello loses, then Kanab gets the 7 seed, North Summit gets the 8 seed. and Monticello gets the 9 seed.  If Monticello wins and North Summit loses, then Kanab gets the 7, Monticello would get the 8 seed, and North Summit gets 9.  It doesn't help that Monticello is playing Rich (who is not so good), so even if Monticello win, it doesn't help them much.


I think those are all the major situations I could find. I'm sorry if I didn't mention your team, or missed something.  I plan on publishing the data each night this week after games go final.  With 28 games Wednesday, a lot of the data will be finalized on day one, 11 more games wrap up on Thursday, and then 3 more on Friday.  So hopefully it should be pretty clear going into Friday where everyone stands.

Best of luck to all the teams this week.

Week 6: I'm too tired to come up with something creative

Welcome to week 6.  Each of the last 3 nights, I have gone to bed after 1 AM, and I have no good ideas what to write as the title for this week.  So how about some game recaps?

Skyler vs Tyler: This was the weekly bonanza as this was the only game to combine for over 300 points.  Skyler had a breakout game from Stefon Diggs, who scored more this week than he had all season.  Everyone else for Skyler was really solid, which was enough since Tyler had some really good scores, some really bad scores, but nothing really great.  Tyler doesn't believe in moral victories, but if he did, he could take some comfort in the fact that he is still in 1st place in the league, is the only person over 900 points on the season, and that he was the 3rd leading scorer even though he had three starters with 6 points or fewer.

Tommy vs Kyle:  Tommy was able to breathe easy going into Monday night.  He had one player left to go tonight, but managed to take a half a point lead last night -- so tonight was all about running up the score.  Stop me if you've heard this before, but McAffrey is really good and led Tommy to a victory.  I should just put that phrase on a clipboard for easy access. Five of Kyle's players scored 9 points or fewer -- including a 1.12 from Goff.  Unfortunately, in the grand scheme of things, these guys did not perform well, and this game was this week's battle of ineptitude.

Brandon vs Ren:  Aaron Jones wasn't enough tonight to get Brandon the victory, or even get him close.  Ren got a combined 60 from his three Falcons -- they all scored season highs this game.  Even with Kamara only scoring 13 points, Ren got the win.  If the Falcons have turned a page, and Kamara gets healthy, Ren could have a great second half of the year.

Brady vs Trevor:  In the nail-biter of the night, Trevor's pair of Packers, pulled off the improbable, and put up enough points to put Trevor past Brady.  Brady was one Detroit yard away, but the NFL refs love Aaron Rodgers and hate Brady.  The real commissioner might not investigate this gross injustice, but I will.  I may have to give Brady points back.

Matt vs TJ: TJ's Falcons players showed up, with a guest appearance by his DST and Kicker, but for the most part, TJ's team thought they had a bye week.  Matt got the win behind Mahomes, Carson, and Godwin, who combined for a smidge over 75 points.  58% of your points from 33% of your roster is a dangerous place to live, but Matt made it work this week.

Rob vs Jordan: Jordan was the second-highest scorer this week and would have challenged for the highest score had he picked up a kicker.  Instead, he decided to keep his bench the way it was, miss out on a handful of points, and still beat Rob by 20+ points. Sounds like a rough week of work.  The Patriots scored 30 points for Rob, but that still wasn't enough as the rest of his team only put out a mediocre performance/Kelce had his worst game of the season, followed closely by Hopkins.  I know Hopkins still had 16 points, but I imagine people are hoping for a better floor than that.  And by people, I mean fantasy players everywhere, not just everyone who has owned/traded him this year.

Award Season

Mario Kart Shout Out: TJ is dominating in Mario Kart this week.  Roughly 3,500 points ahead of second place.  Maybe we will try challenging him next week in the new cup.

Highest Scorer of the Week: Skyler wins the award this week thanks to Stefon Diggs.

Lowest Scorer of the Week: Kyle puts up a goose egg this week to win this award.  To add insult to injury, he still has a goose egg in the win column.

Luckiest Team of the Week: Tommy was the lowest scoring winner this week, so he wins luckiest team. In a first-ever overnight change, I am changing luckiest team of the week to Trevor. He won by a narrow margin, it wasn’t until the very end of the game he took the lead, he was one Detroit yard away from losing, and part of the one only happens because of some questionable penalties, and the heads up play by Jamaal Williams to fall on his butt when he noticed that Detroit was trying to let him score.

Unluckiest Team of the Week:  Tyler finishes with the 3rd highest score, but still found a way to lose.  In another moral victory, he did win this award this week over Brady.  I strongly considered putting Brady here, but this award traditionally goes to the highest-scoring loser.

MVP of the Week: Stefon Diggs scored the most points in the league of any player this week, and he did it for the week's best team.

LVP(s) of the Week: Mike Nugent (5), CJ Prosise (1.3), Juju Smith-Schuster (1.7), Gerald Everett (2.9), the Cowboys DST (5), Jared Goff (1.12), Malcolm Brown (4), Derrick Henry (4.3), Tyler Boyd (4), Greg Zuerlein (1), Giovani Bernard (4.4), Jimmy Graham (3.7), Amari Cooper (1.3), Chris Thompson (4), Will Dissly (0), Demarcus R0bins0n, Gus Edwards (3.4), Kaimi Fairbairn (5), Vance McDonald (1.5), Jordan's non-existant Kicker (0).

Game Previews

Skyler (3) vs Kyle (12):  Skyler has no players on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  He has no players on bye. Kyle has three players on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  He has 3 players on bye.

Ren (8) vs Brady (11):  Ren has no players on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  He has two players on bye. Brady has one player on Thursday night and three players in primetime.  He has no players on bye. There are no great candidates for the battle of ineptitude, so I’ll hesitantly pick this one.

Trevor (5) vs Brandon (9):  Trevor has no players on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  He has one player on bye. Brandon has three players on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  He has one player on bye.

TJ (10) vs Rob (7):  TJ has three players on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  He has one player on bye. Rob has one player on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  He has no players on bye.

Jordan (2) vs Matt (4):  Jordan has one player on Thursday night and three players in primetime.  He has two players on bye. Matt has one player on Thursday night and three players in primetime.  He has two players on bye. This one of the leading candidates for the bonanza, but it depends how each team can handle the bye week. Given the number of primetime players, this is also a candidate for the nail-biter of the night.

Tyler (1) vs Tommy (6):  Tyler has one player on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  He has three players on bye. Tommy has no players on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  He has four players on bye. This one of the leading candidates for the bonanza, but it depends how each team can handle the bye week. Given the number of primetime players, this is also a candidate for the nail-biter of the night.