Monday, November 28, 2016

One Week to Go

I will try and be as accurate as possible with the tie-breaker scenarios, but as that requires math with numbers that are still changing, some of the numbers will be off.  None of the outcomes of the games should change, so records will be accurate.

Chad (9-3)
Skyler (8-4)
Brady (6-6)
Geoff (4-8)

Matt (7-5)
Rob (6-6)
Trevor (5-7)
Ren (1-11)

Kyle (8-4)
Jordan (7-5)
TJ (6-6)
Tyler (5-7)

Chad essentially has the #1 seed locked up.  Even if he loses next week, and Kyle and Skyler win, they would have to outscore him by so much that it's very unlikely.  Kyle scored so much this week over Jordan that he appears to have locked up the #2 seed and his division.  Even if he loses next week, and Jordan wins, Jordan would have to outscore him by 60 points to overtake him.  It's obviously not impossible since Kyle outscore Jordan by 75 this week, but I don't think it's likely to swing back that heavily towards Jordan.

Matt has also most likely won his division.  Matt has an 80 point lead over Rob, so Rob would have to win, Matt would have to lose, and Rob would have to outscore Matt by 80 points.  Again, not likely, so I'm saying Matt won the division.  Skyler has also locked up a playoff spot. With only 1 game to go, the only person who can tie/pass him that hasn't likely won his division is Jordan.

Speaking of Jordan, if he wins, he is in.  If he wins and Skyler loses, he can jump up to the 4th seed. If he loses, he could still get in, but it would depend on what the other 6-6 teams do.  If they all lost, he would still get the 5th seed. If they all won, and Jordan lost, TJ would definitely jump him, but Brady and Rob are behind him by 75-90 points -- so it would be hard for them to pass Jordan.

If one of the 6-6 teams wants to guarantee his spot, he needs to win, and have the other two 6-6 teams lose.  TJ is playing Kyle, so I give him a 50% chance to win. Rob is playing Ren, so I give him a 70% chance to win.  Brady plays Skyler and is without his best RB, so I only give him a 40% chance to win.  Obviously, what I think means 0%, so whatever.

Currently, the score difference is TJ is up about 116 over Rob, and Rob is up about 40 points ahead of Brady.  If it weren't for competition in the last week, TJ would have the best chance to make it.  Unfortunately for him Rob has next to a gimmee against Ren.

Well that's it for now.  It should be an interesting last week.

Sunday, November 20, 2016

Another Week, Another Playoff Update

I have decided to give a mid-game update on the playoff situation since most of the games have been decided.  The assumptions I am making are that Kyle's last player doesn't score him -3 points, that Trevors two players can score him 3 points, and that Jordan's two players don't score him 50 points.  The Jordan one is possible, but I don't see it happening.  For the sake of this update, I will assume they score him 30 points since it will come up in a tie-breaker scenario.

Here are the new records (again given the above assumptions) by division after this week.

Chad (9-2)
Skyler (7-4)
Brady (6-5)
Geoff (3-8)

Matt (6-5)
Rob (5-6)*
Trevor (5-6)
Ren (1-10)
*Rob is ahead of Trevor of 8 points in real life.  After this week is finalized, it will depend on how much Trevor scores, but Rob could see his lead jump up to 40 points.

Jordan (7-4)* [Again, assuming his 2 players score him 30 more points -- which is higher than the projections]
Kyle (7-4) [Assuming his last player scores 10 points, which is what he is projected to score]
TJ **(5-6)
Tyler (5-6)

*Jordan stays ahead of Kyle about 60 points.  He is currently ahead 40, and this week could see him gain another 10-20.
**TJ pulls ahead of Tyler on the tie-breaker of points, which is about 65 points.

So where does this put us?  The "Geoff could 0.01% make the playoffs" scenario is done. As is the "Chad could miss the playoffs if the planets aligned, and having his baby caused him to drop his whole team" scenario.  The North Division has also locked up the first round bye.  I say it that way because Skyler could still hypothetically catch Chad's record (and outscore him by 150 points the next two weeks), and if that were to happen, no one in the South Division could catch Skyler.  That's not going to happen.  Odds are a little better that Jordan or Kyle could catch him and outscore him by 50 and 100 (respectively) in the next two weeks, but that's still not very good odds.

So unofficially, Chad will be the regular season champ.  I may have thrown up in my mouth a little.  Yuck.

Moving on to the most interesting division, let's look at the West. Jordan plays Kyle next week, and the winner of that game will for sure be in the playoffs.  They won't have necessarily won the division, but they will lock up a playoff spot.  On the flip side, the loser of the TJ vs Tyler game will be eliminated from the playoffs next week.  The winner will still have a hard time to get in, but it will be possible.  Let's say TJ wins next week, and Kyle loses, they would go into their final game against each other, Kyle with a one game lead.  If TJ beat Kyle, they would have the same record, but TJ would most likely be ahead by 30-40 points.  That's looking at too far out, and too much can happen, but you get the idea.

The most interesting game after that is Rob vs Trevor.  They are tied at 5-6, but their playoff implications are still a little bit murky. The winner wouldn't lock in a playoff spot, and the loser would most likely be eliminated, though there is a small chance they could survive.  The most interesting storyline from this division would be if Matt lost to Ren, and Trevor beat Rob, then Matt and Trevor would play for the division championship in the last week.  If Matt beats Ren, he will have essentially locked up the division and the playoffs.

The North Division isn't all that exciting.  Chad has like 99.9% chance to win the division -- he 100% wins it if he beats Skyler this week.  Skyler and Brady are currently ranked 5 and 6, and are the last two teams making the playoffs at the moment.  One of them will at least get one more win since they play each other in the last week.  Again that's looking 2 weeks out, but I'm pretty sure the winner of that game will make the playoffs -- it's not certain though.  If Skyler can beat Chad this week, I'm pretty sure he would be in the playoffs (I realize I'm referring to myself in different ways in this post.  When I say "Skyler", I'm referring to the team, not trying to talk in 3rd person.  When I say "I" or "me", that's the writer/narrator.  I do it that way so if anyone is trying to look at the scenarios, they don't see "I will make the playoffs" and have to change it to "Skyler" in their heads.  Moving on.)

If Brady wins, he will be in a very solid spot to make the playoffs.  If he loses, he will still be ahead of the winner of Trevor/Rob, but behind the winner of TJ/Tyler, which would not be an easy position to be in because Tyler beats him on tie-breaker by 40 points and TJ by about 100.

Anyway, that's it for now.  It's late-ish and I'm watching Star Trek.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Playoff Implications From Week 10

What a week! And by that I mean I won by 1.7.  I suppose in other almost interesting news was Geoff nearly coming back to beat Jordan, and Chad likely locked up the #1 seed.  Ugh, stupid Chad -- he's so stupid.

In playoff news -- what we all knew is officially confirmed, Ren has been eliminated from making the playoffs.  It's been a rough year for Ren -- no one has allowed more than 1300 points besides Ren (1365), and no one has scored less than 1130 except for Ren (1084).  That's the perfect storm of bad luck.  Especially since there were a few people worried about him at the beginning of the year when Forte went bonkers.

Next on the chopping block is Geoff.  There is still a chance that he could sneak into the 6th spot based on tie-breakers.  If he did that, he would be on such a hot streak that he would probably win the whole thing.  Odds are he will be eliminated this week, but you never know.

After Geoff, we could see 3 more teams get eliminated this week.  If all the 4-6 players lose (Rob, Trevor, and TJ), and all of the 6-4 players win (Skyler, Brady, Matt, and Kyle) then Rob, Trevor, and TJ will be eliminated from the playoff race.  Odds of that happening aren't great as Trevor plays Ren (the worst team) and Brady has to play Chad, and Chad has the best team -- stupid Chad.

Speaking of stupid Chad, he is the first to be officially in the playoffs.  At 8-2, with 3 weeks to go -- actually, great news everyone, that's not true!  I just realized there is a tiny chance he misses the playoffs.  If he loses every game, and Tyler, Jordan, and Kyle all got to 8 wins, and Brady and I both beat Geoff, and then if we all pass him on points (he has the lead by more that 50) then he would be out by a tie-breaker.  I don't know what's more likely, Geoff makes it, or Chad misses it, but either way, the odds are incredibly small.

All of the 5 and 6 win teams can't officially clinch a playoff spot, even if all of the 4 win teams get eliminated this week.  Jordan could clinch a spot in the playoffs if all the 4 win teams lost, and if Tyler lost.  Again, it's not likely, but it's possible.

That's it for this week.  I'm sure I will have to reevaluate everything next week when nothing goes according to the above scenarios.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

The Playoff Chase Heats Up

I haven’t written about the league since the draft.  I like to think that my excuse is moving/new job/baby, but really, I just haven’t loved this season.  Not sure why, but it just hasn’t been as fun.  That being said, we are down to the last 4 weeks, people are inching towards the playoffs, and people will want to see some early scenarios/paths to the playoffs.  We are still a ways out, so I can’t cover everything, but this should be helpful.
I went back and looked at historical data of who does and doesn’t make the playoffs based on end-of-year records.  No team that finished at 5-8 or worse never made the playoffs. On the flipside, any team that won at least 8 games made the playoffs.  It gets more interesting when you look at the 7-6 teams and the 6-7 teams.  79% of the teams that go 7-6 make the playoffs.  Only 23% of the 6-7 teams make the playoffs.  So if you want to feel safe, get to 8 wins.  If you want a shot, get to 7.  If you can hope for a miracle with other teams being terrible, maybe 6 wins will be enough – it happened twice in 2011, and once in 2014. A lot of teams are close, so it could happen.
Speaking of teams that are close, we have 3 matchups this week where a 5-4 team plays a 4-5 team.  Throw in Tyler most likely beating Ren, and we could have seven teams who are 5-5 after this week.  If the 5-4 teams all win though, they take a 2 game lead over the 4-5 teams, with only 3 games left.  It will be an interesting week for sure.
The number 1 team (Chad) takes on the number 3 team (Matt) this week.  They are both at least two games ahead of all of their division opponents.  If Chad wins, he has the inside track to the number one seed.  If Matt wins, he will tie Chad on record, but still be behind on points.  What would be fun is for Matt to beat Chad, and Jordan to beat Geoff, and then the top three teams will be 7-3, and they will be fighting for the top two teams that would earn a bye – but none of them are locks to even win their division if the other top teams in their division win.

Basically, all of the above was fluff to say we won’t know anything for sure after this week, but there will be a lot of interesting games that will be pretty important in the long run.  I wouldn’t be surprised if at least 3 spots are up for grabs in the last week.  Anyway, it will be a fun week for just about everyone.