Monday, November 27, 2017

Fantasy Football is Stupid and so is Hopkins

Here is a table with all of the scenarios for playoffs.  W2 refers to the second place west team.  It could be Tyler or TJ, but the same scenarios apply to both.


TeamResultScenario
TrevorOutAll
JordanOutAll
KyleOutAll
GeoffOutAll
TylerWin DivisionA Tyler win and a TJ loss
Wild CardA Tyler win and a TJ win
Wild CardA Tyler loss and a Matt loss and a Skyler loss.
OutA Tyler loss and a Matt or Skyler win.
TJWin DivisionA TJ win
Win DivisionA Tyler Loss
WildcardA TJ loss, a Tyler win, and a Skyler and Matt loss.
OutA TJ loss, a Tyler win, and a Skyler or Matt win.
RobBye WeekWin
WildcardAll
RenBye WeekWin
WildcardAll
BradyBye WeekWin
WildcardAll
ChadBye WeekA Chad win and a Brady loss and Chad outscores Brady.
WildcardAll
MattWildcardA Matt win and a W2 loss
OutA W2 win
OutA Matt loss
SkylerWildcardA Skyler win, and a W2 loss and a Matt loss
OutA Matt or W2
OutA Skyler loss

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Another week, another 3 game losing streak.

I thought my title was clever, and then I realized I wasn't even the coldest team in the league.  Trevor is tied with me said 3 game losing streak, and then there is Jordan who is on a 9 game losing streak.  He started 2-0, probably felt on top of the world, and then crashed hardcore.  This week, Jordan hit his final bump and was eliminated with his loss, as was Kyle.  They join Trevor in the group of fallen tributes (if you didn't watch hunger games, shame on you).  Skyler

Switching to the leaders, Chad v Brady looked promising, after Chad's 180 point game.  Brady decided to get in on the 180 point action this week, but Chad didn't break triple digits.  Even after that huge win, Chad still has a 50 point lead on Brady if it comes down to tie-breakers.  Fortunately for Brady, he has some cupcake games coming up, and he should hopefully maintain his 1 game lead on Chad. Skyler

In news from the South (which currently has the most exciting races in my opinion), Rob got a big win and basically knocked Matt out of the race for division champion.  Rob is currently up 2 games on Matt with 2 games to go and Rob has a 100 point lead over Matt as well.  If Rob wins next week, that will eliminate TJ from getting a first-round bye, even though it wouldn't give Rob the division championship, because Ren could still catch him. Skyler

In the West division, TJ has a one-game lead over Tyler as well as 110 points.  For Tyler to win the division, he will need to win out while TJ loses out.  There is a small possibility that they could end with the same record, and Tyler somehow catches up on the 110 points over two weeks, but we all know it's not going to happen. Skyler

With Skyler and Matt losing, and Geoff and Tyler winning, the battle for 6th place will be intense with two weeks remaining.  Skyler and Geoff have the toughest remaining games (both against the top 2 teams in the league, so they should be nervous.  Matt is 50/50 as he plays Ren and then Trevor.  Tyler is also at 50/50 as he plays Jordan and TJ. Skyler

The game of the week is Matt against Ren.  If Ren wins, he will have a 2 game lead over Matt, and Matt will have no chance of sneaking up to get the 5 seed.  Ren winning will also keep the pressure on Rob for the division championship.  If Matt wins, he will maintain his lead on the 6th seed and could overtake Ren for the 5th seed next week, and he will also make the path for Rob winning the division much easier. Skyler

For the sake of intensity (and my own needs), Ren beating Matt would make for an intense week 13 since there could still be 4 teams fighting for one spot. Skyler

I know my thoughts have been all over the place, so here is a recap by person, going in the order of ease for me to write about. Skyler

Kyle, Jordan, and Trevor are done, but can still affect the playoffs by winning or losing. Skyler
Skyler
Brady: Leads for the #1 seed, but Chad is still right there.  This race won't likely be wrapped up until the last week.  If Brady wins this week while Chad loses (I would 100% approve of this), it would be finished, but Chad has an easy game (Skyler). Skyler

Chad: See above. Skyler

Rob: A win this week and a Ren loss would lock up the division win and the bye week.  A Rob loss and a Ren win would put Ren atop the division on tie-breaker, and then they would play each other in week 13 with the division on the line (and it would give TJ a chance to steal a first-round bye).  I really want to see that happen now that I know it can happen,  It can only happen with a Rob loss and a Ren win. Do your part Trevor and Ren. Skyler

Ren: See above.  Even with a loss, he would still be in control of the 5 seed going into the last week, but it would make him vulnerable to dropping to 6th or even missing the playoffs, though not likely. Skyler
Matt:  (See the previous two) Lose and he will have no shot at the 5th seed, plus he will give hope to Skyler, Geoff and Tyler to sneak in. Skyler

Geoff and Tyler:  If they lose while Matt wins, they will be eliminated from the playoffs. If they win while Matt loses, Tyler would jump up ahead of Matt and into the 6th seed (unless Skyler won, though he could potentially win his division), and Geoff would be tied with both of them on record, but behind on points. Skyler

Skyler: If he loses and Matt wins, Matt will have a 1 game lead and currently has a 50 point lead in the tie-breaker.  It wouldn't 100% eliminate Skyler, but it would be almost impossible for him to come back from the loss. If he wins and Matt loses, it will move him up to the 6th seed. Skyler

TJ: Win the week, win the division, have a shot at a bye week if Rob loses. Lose this week (to Tyler), wait and see what happens in week 13, lose all chance at a bye week.

So for maximum week 13 fun we want Skyler and Matt to lose (stay at 6 wins) and Geoff and Tyler to win (get up to 6 wins), while Ren beats Rob.  That would mean no one had won their division yet, and that 4 teams would be battling for 6th place.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

How to Make the Playoffs: A Step by Step Guide to Qualifying for the Tournament

I have more free time today, so I decided to sit down and look at how each team can qualify for the playoffs.  Here is a screenshot of the current standings.




So starting at the bottom:

Trevor is officially out. Sorry, compadre.

Jordan and Kyle have the same path to the playoffs.  Win every division game with TJ losing every division game, and Tyler winning only one division game (over TJ) while the other member of the Jordan/Kyle group beats both TJ and Tyler, but loses the head to head Jordan/Kyle matchup.  And then Jordan/Kyle would have to be able to beat out TJ and Tyler on the points tiebreaker. I give this a <1% chance of happening.  Another fun fact, if Jordan loses this weekend, he eliminates himself and Kyle at the same time.

Next on the list is Geof.  Geoff cannot catch Chad or Brady, so if they win, it doesn't affect him making playoffs.  Geoff needs people he can catch to lose.  So he needs to win out (gets him to 7 wins), and he needs Skyler to lose out (stays at 6).  He should also cheer for TJ and Rob to win out (8 and 10 wins respectively), with Tyler only winning 1 more game maximum (5 wins).  He should also cheer for Trevor to beat both Matt and Ren so they don't get additional wins.  Given the current scores, he should cheer for Ren over Matt because Matt has the lower point total, but if Matt or Ren lose out, and Geoff wins out, he would jump ahead of one of those people.  Also, it is still mathematically possible for him to make the playoffs at 6 wins, but it would be darn near impossible.  I also give Geoff <1% chance of making the playoffs.

It gets murky in the middle, so I am jumping to the top.  The winner of Chad v Brady has the inside track to a bye week.  It is possible that the loser wins the next two after, and the winner loses the next two, but it's not likely given their competition. Chad has a big lead on points, so if they end up tied, he will get the tiebreaker.  In theory, one of them could lose out and miss the playoffs, but we know that's not going to happen.  The things that need to happen for one of them to miss the playoffs is longer than the list for Geoff to make the playoffs. >99% chance they both make the playoffs, and >99% chance that one of them gets a first-round bye.

In order for Tyler to win the division, he needs to win all of his games, and given the 90 point lead TJ has on him, he should hope for TJ to lose at least 2 games.  If Tyler wants to get to the playoffs as a wild-card, he will still likely need to win out.  If Tyler only gets to 6 wins he would need TJ to lose out, Ren or Matt to lose out (Matt has fewer points, so he should cheer against Matt), and Skyler to lose out.  And then he would have to make it on tie-breakers -- and he is already ahead of Matt and Skyler on points, so that would work out for him.  Overall though, Tyler's best case to make the playoffs is by winning the division.

TJ can guarantee a division title by winning out.  If he goes 2-1 and Tyler goes 3-0, he will still likely win the division based on points.  TJ can also win the division by only winning 1 of his last 3 games, as long as that win is against Tyler (they play next week, and not this week), and that Tyler doesn't catch him on the tie-breaker.  All of those scenarios

The South division can be won by any of the non-Trevor teams winning out.  Matt would need a little help if he wins 3 games and Rob wins 2 since Rob is ahead on tie-breakers, but even then Matt would make the playoffs.

The wild card spots are a little tricker for The non-South winners and Skyler are a little trickier.  For ease of writing, I will assume Rob wins the division since he currently has the lead.  So that leaves Matt and Ren fighting with Skyler for the last 2 playoff spots (though Rob could be swapped out for Matt or Ren, and Tyler could get there, but it would be a big stretch).  Another stretch is that an 8 win team could miss the playoffs.  If Matt and Ren go 2-1, and Rob and Trevor go 1-2, Matt Ren and Rob would all end up with 8 wins.  If Skyler also goes 2-1, that would give him 8 wins.  It's highly unlikely all of that happens, but you never know.

In summary, if you want to guarantee a spot in the playoffs, get to 9 wins.  If you want a really good shot, get to 8.  If you want a chance to make the playoffs, get to 7, but you will be needing help.  Getting in with 6 wins will require a miracle.  Getting there with 5 means you are Kyle or Jordan and that miracles are real.


Tuesday, November 7, 2017

Week 10 Interesting Groups

This week is the last week before we get back to division games, which means it's the last week where you can get a win and everyone else in your division can get a loss.  So for those looking to catch up or pull away, this is a big week.

Here is a look at the importance of the upcoming games.

Chad vs Matt and Brady vs Rob:
I grouped these together because it's the top team in the north vs the top team in the south, and the second-best team in the north vs the second-best team in the south.  While it is likely that the winners of the North and South will get the bye weeks, this week will basically solidify whether the North will get the 1 seed, or if the South has a chance to steal it.  If both North teams win, it will give Brady a 3 game lead over the South, and Chad a 2 game lead (with 3 games left to go).  If both of the South teams win, it would mean that Matt, Rob, and Chad would all be tied, and Brady would be only 1 game ahead.

Skyler vs TJ and Tyler vs Ren:
Here we have the top two teams in the west going against the two guys who are currently battling it out for the wild-card spot.  A Ren win with a Skyler loss would put Ren ahead on tie-breakers for the last spot in the playoffs.  A Skyler win and a Ren loss would give Skyler a two-game lead.  If they both win or both lose, it doesn't change anything between them, but if they both lose, it would give the west a chance to get one of the wild-card spots.

A Tyler win and a TJ loss will put Tyler up by one game (which he needs to happen as he is behind points).  A TJ win and a Tyler loss will give TJ a one-game lead in addition to his points tie-breaker.  If they both win, nothing will change between them, but it would keep Jordan and Kyle at bay, and it would mean they would be tied with Ren's record and only a game behind Skyler -- which would mean one game back of the last wildcard spot.  So while they are desperately cheering for the other to lose, they can still benefit if they both win.

So this week Skyler and Tyler are cheering for each other, and Ren and TJ are cheering for each other.

Trevor vs Kyle and Jordan vs Geoff:
The Loser Leaves Town group.  I won't say that the losers will definitively be eliminated from the playoffs because it would depend on a lot of the other games, but it is very likely that the losers will not be able to make the playoffs.  It will still be a tall task for the winners to make the playoffs, but it would still be possible.

After this week, we will be back in division play.  Just as a reminder while you are thinking about how you can still make the playoffs, here are the possible win/loss combinations of a division during the 3 division games.  3-0, 2-1, 1-2, and 0-3 or 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, and 1-2 or 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2.  So if you are planning on winning out your division games, just remember to give some other teams in your division a few wins.  Sadly, you can't go 3-0 while the rest of your division goes 0-3.