Week 16: It All Comes Down to This

After some high scoring games in week 15, we finally know our matchup for the championship -- Trevor vs Brady.  They were the top two seeds going into the playoffs, which has happened 5 other times in recorded league history.  I thought it was going to be lower.  But before we go into the details of this upcoming game, let's look at the games behind us.

Game Recaps

Trevor vs Brandon: Brandon put up a solid 136.44 this week.  Of the 8 teams in action this week, that was the 4th highest score.  However, this is the playoffs and all of those bottom-feeder teams are playing Christian McCaffrey.  In the games that mattered, Brandon's 136.44 was the lowest score of the playoff teams.  I don't really know what it feels like to have 136.44 be a bad week, but that is why I'm playing for 11th place.  Anyway, Brandon had some really nice games from a wide variety of people, but none of them broke 26 points.  Trevor had one guy score 30 and another score 43 while also having solid games from other players as well.  What's crazy is that Trevor made almost every wrong call on who to start (of players healthy that is).  His bench TE outscored his starting TE by 18 points, and of his 5 RB who played this week, he started 3 of them, and the two on the bench were his #1 and #3 scoring running backs this week.  Apparently, this was just his week, and there's nothing Brandon could have done about it.

Tyler vs Brady: In the other semifinal matchup, the unlikely trio of Josh Allen, David Montgomery, and Tony Pollard combined for 100 points, which meant the other 6 people on Brady's team combined for just a hair under 60 points.  Tyler's top 3 players scored just over 70 points, meaning the other 6 people on his team scored 70 points. Moral of the story -- when your studs go off, you win important games.  I know, that's a revolutionary take, and no one has ever thought of it before in fantasy football.  Maybe I can apply it next year and have studs go off during regular-season games. In good news for Brady, George Kittle could be back this weekend.  I'm not sure Brady wants to trust him right away, but Kittle would certainly be an upgrade over Irv Smith.

Award Season

Tommy was the only one to make any picks this week, so he takes the season lead over Tyler.  With an 11 game lead and only two weeks to go, I think Tommy wins this for the season.

Championship Preview

Trevor vs Brady:  It has all come down to one final game. The preseason numbers had Brady at an 80% chance to make the playoffs (4th best in the league), and Trevor at a 65% chance (10th best in the league), which means Trevor outperformed the projections by a healthy margin, and Brady has performed as expected..

The schedule is a little different with Christmas Eve and Christmas.  The earliest game this week happens on Friday instead of Thursday. Trevor has 0 players on Thursday, 5 players on Saturday, and 1 player in prime time. Brady has 0 players on Friday,  1 player on Saturday, and 1 player in primetime.  Trevor's last primetime player plays on Sunday night (Tannehill), and Brady's last primetime player plays on Monday night (Josh Allen).  Those were the MVP's of their respective teams last week, so it seems like we won't know the champion until late Monday.

This year, Brady leads Trevor (weeks 1-13, 15) 8 to 6, including the actual head to head win in week 6. However, in the last 4 weeks, Trevor leads Brady 3-1.  In the one week that Brady led Trevor in the last four weeks, he only beat Trevor by 3.

Trevor leads in all time regular season matchups 6-5.  They have never met in the playoffs, and I don't care to look up the consolation bracket information.  Fun fact: This is the first year and Brady and Trevor have made the playoffs at the same time.  We will see one or the other (or neither), but we've never seen both until now.  

Brady is 1 for 2 in the playoffs, and now is tied for the league lead in championship appearances at 3 (he is tied with Skyler [3-0], Rob [2-1], and Chad [0-3].  If he wins, he becomes the 3rd multi championship winner, and joins Rob with a winning record in the championship. Trevor makes his first appearance, and he is building off of last year where he made his first semi-final apperance.  All 3 of Brady's championship appearances have come in the last 4 years.  This has been the best stretch of their respective fantasy careers.

Looking head to head at each position, I give Brady the edge at QB, RB1, TE, Flex, and K.  I give Trevor the edge at RB2 (especially if Zeke plays), WR1, WR2, and DST.  I think QB, RB1, and DST are narrow advantages, and Flex depdning on McLaurin health. I think WR1, WR2, and K are bigger advantages, and RB2, TE, and Flex are very much dependent on injuries and who plays, and I could see those going either way.

My final guess, Tannehill, Hopkins, and Hill go off and take Trevor to the promised land, and he gets his name on the trophy for the first time. 

Week 14.5: There is Still Football Going On?

Apparently, I have just completely checked out this year.  Sorry guys.  Fortunately the recap and preview this week will be quick since I only focus on the playoffs.

Game Recaps

Brandon vs Chad: In the first battle, Brandon came away victorious.  Unfortunately, because I am bad at writing, and because our website is terrible, I can't tell who Brandon's RB and DST were because he has since dropped them.  I think he had the Cardinals DST, but I don't remember who his RB was.  Either way, he beat Chad by a healthy margin and moves on to the semi's.  That's what happens when Your QB, RB, and WR combine for 95 points. Chad had a couple of solid games from 4 players, but his team combined for only 106 points.

Kyle vs Tyler: Kyle put up 138 points -- which was his 4th highest score (out of 14) this season, but unfortunately Tyler put up 171 points -- which was also his 4th highest score of this season.  Let that sink in -- Tyler has put up 170+ four times this season.  He was also the only non-North person to lose to Skyler this year.  So his team can hit the highest of highs and lowest of lows.  Speaking of Tyler's losses this year, he lost to Kyle twice in the regular season, so this was a great revenge game for him.

Award Season

The only award I wanted to say mattered was winning in the playoffs, but Tyler won this week in the pick 'em game, and now he and Tommy are tied on the season.  So I guess we will keep following along since it's a close game. 

Game Preview

Trevor vs Brandon: Trevor had two players on Thursday night, no players on Saturday, and no players in primetime.  Brandon had no players on Thursday night, one player on Saturday, and no players in primetime. Combined, they only have three guys in the Sunday afternoon slot, so this game should be decided early.  From weeks 1-13, Trevor outscored Brandon 8 of the 13 games.  Trevor averaged 0.715 more points per game than Brandon, but Brandon's median score was 5 points higher than Trevor's median score.  Trevor is the only person remaining in the playoffs in the league who never scored below 100 points this season. Trevor had a higher season high score (189 to 168) and a higher season low score (101 to 88) than Brandon.  When I went through the process of trying to find outliers, I had to find the quartile's to calculate the InterQuartile Range (IQR).  First, no one remaining had any 'outlier' games, and second, Trevor had the highest lower quartlie, the lowest higher quartile, and therefore, the smallest IQR.  Basically, Trevor is the most consistent team remaining in the playoffs, and is least likely to crap the bed (I'm sorry if this jinxes you my Charger brother).  I also looked at the average scores in groups.  Brandon had the higher average score in the weeks 1-4 group, but Trevor had the higher average in the weeks 5-8 gorup and the weeks 9-13 group. Based on all of that, I'm taking Trevor to win this series and get to his first championship game.

Tyler vs Brady: Tyler had no players on Thursday night, one player on Saturday, and one player in primetime.  Brady had no players on Thursday night, one player on Saturday and one player in primetime.  Hold on, I'm being told that Brady did indeed have a player on Thursday.  Apparently Keenan Allen did play for both Brady and the Chargers, but he only scored 2.6 points.  Woof.  My apologies.  Their primetime game is Sunday night, so this will be finished before going into Monday. From weeks 1-13, Tyler outscored Brady 8 of the 13 games. Tyler averaged 3.715 more points per game than Brady, but Brady's median score is 8 points higher than Tyler's median score. Tyler had a higher season high score (184 to 171), and Brady had a higher season low score (92 to 81). Their IQR score is only 4 points apart, and their Q1 and Q3 scores are close, so they have roughly the same consistency all season.  I set a check at how many times teams scored over 150.  Tyler did it 3 times, Brady did it twice (regular season only).  If you include the playoffs, Tyler gets to 4.  I'm not sure where Brady would be because he sat all of his players. Tyler averaged 20 points more weeks 1-4, Brady averaged 10 points more weeks 5-8, and Tyler averaged 2 points more weeks 9-13.  Tyler has the higher cieling and the lower floor, and with Brees coming back this week, that puts Kamara back into a ceiling player, so I'll pick Tyler to win this week.

At the time of publication, Trevor is projected to win by 3, and Tyler is projected to win by 1 Brady is projected to win by 6.  I went back to double check my original numbers and Josh Allen scored a TD to give Brady the projected edge.

Anyway, best of luck to the four teams that matter.  For the rest of us losers, there's always next year.

Week 14 -- I mean 13...

 ...this was totally published before week 14 started.  No idea why you guys didn't see it earlier. This week saw some fun battles for the top spots, but was fairly anticlimactic for the final wild card spot.  Trevor held on to the top spot by 9 points over Brandon, and Brady only had a minor lead for a while, giving Kyle hope that he could pass Brady for the second bye.  Eventually Brady slammed the door shut though, and left Kyle stuck in 3rd.  Tyler had a cake walk this week, which made things nearly impossible for Matt to make a comeback and sneak into the playoffs.

Game Recaps

Skyler vs Brady: After two weeks of greatness, Skyler's team regressed to below 100 points. The David Montgomery revenge tour continued, with another season high performance against a former manager. Allen and Monty combined for 55 points and gave Brady the comfortable win.

Chad vs Tommy:  Three weeks ago Chad was looking good and had a shot at the bye week.  He then crapped the bed against Skyler last week, and then got mauled to death by Tommy this week (two of the worst teams this year).  Chad was the 7th highest scorer this week (not great, but not terrible) with 118 points, and he lost by 66.38 points.  This was the run away beatdown of the week. I thought it was going to be the beatdown of the year, but that looks to have come in week two when Kyle beat Jordan by 67.76.  Speaking of Jordan, you could have added Jordan's score this week to Chad's score, and Chad would have only won by fewer than 10 points. Mahomes and Cook each scored 20+ and combined for 45.22 -- Tommy got 45 from Darren Waller alone. Chad had two starters get over 20+ points -- Tommy had three starters that didn't.  One of the starters that didn't was his kicker, who still get 16 points. Tommy singlehandedly made this the bonanza. 

Trevor vs Matt:  This was the nail-biter of the week, and also one of the two most important games for playoff seedings.  Trevor needed to win, for Brandon to lose, and to score just enough to keep ahead of Brandon, and he would get the top seed.  Spoiler alert, mission accomplished.  This is Trevor's first season being the top team in the regular season.  Congratulations! He got there with 30+ from Tannehill, and a lot of solid (10-19 points) games from the rest of his team.  Matt had two players score over 20, but it wasn't enough as the rest of his team struggled to hit double digits.  Matt needed to win or a Tyler loss, and he needed to score enough points to pass Tyler - literally the exact opposite of that happened.  Congrats though on getting the top seed of the consolation bracket?

Brandon vs Rob: In one of the other big playoff seeding games, Rob pulled off the big upset and beat Brandon by 30.  The loss put Brandon to number two overall, but because of the league structure/rules, it gives Brandon the 4th seed. Rob secured the win with 20+ from Roethlisberger, and around 95 points from his Quartet of Death (Adams, Thomas, Kelce, and Julio).  Congrats Rob on winning the consolation bracket.

Kyle vs TJ: This was an impressive beatdown, which is what Kyle needed for a chance at the 2 seed and the bye.  Unfortunately, that didn't happen, but Kyle should feel good after getting four players with 20+ points.  TJ started the usually stout Steelers DST and got 4 points from them -- and that was still more than TJ's starting RB, WR, and K combined.

Tyler vs Jordan: Remember how Tommy singlehandedly made his matchup the bonanza?  Jordan did the opposite for this matchup. Tyler was the 4th highest scorer this week, and this was still the battle of ineptitude. It was the only matchup this week where the combined score didn't break 200 points.  Jordan was so bad, (how bad was he?), Jordan was so bad, that his starters lost to his own bench (they had four players combine for 1.5 points), and only beat Chad's bench by fewer than 2 points.

Award Season

Pick 'em:  Tommy won the week with 12, while Tyler got 11.  There were only 15 games last week.  Well done gentlemen.  Tommy leads Tyler by 4 on the season.

Highest Scorer of the Week: Turbo

Lowest Scorer of the Week: Jordan

Luckiest Team of the Week: Trevor -- he was the lowest scoring winner (but he was 6th overall, so not that lucky), but he also managed to score enough to keep Brandon at bay, and also had Brandon lose.  This makes up for his unlucky stretch there a few weeks back.

Unluckiest Team of the Week:  No one in the bottom 6 scorers won, so we'll give it to Brandon for losing out on the 1 seed in the last week.

MVP: Darren Waller for being in the 40+ point club was going to be the winner, but then after looking at how Trevor won the luckiest team, I am giving it to his top scorer, Ryan Tannehill.  He didn't break 26 points from week 7 on, but in week 13, when Trevor needed him most, he came up with 33 points.  It's not a big jump, but it was enough to bring Trevor to the (regular season) promised land.

LVP: Everyone who started for Jordan and TJ.  Those teams combined for ~155 points.  AKA they would have lost to Tommy by nearly 30.

Playoff Seedings

1. Trevor
2. Brady
3. Kyle
4. Brandon
5. Chad
6. Tyler

Game Previews

Brandon (4) vs Chad (5): Brandon has one player on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  Chad has no players on Thursday night and one player in primetime.  I'm giving Brandon the narrow edge in this matchup based on the matchups of each of their starters.  I hope I'm wrong.  I'm cheering for Chad since he's in the North division.  Brandon used to be in the North, so if he wins, I'm counting it as a minor victory for the division.

Kyle (3) vs Tyler (6): Kyle has one player on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  Tyler has no players on Thursday night and two players in primetime.  3 of those 4 primetime games are Monday night.  Kyle has Kareem Hunt, and Tyler has Nick Chubb, so they will be watching the Browns backfield anxiously. I think this is close, but I'll give Tyler the edge. Kamara had his best week with Taysom in the backfield, and I think he builds on that, plus with Julio out, Ridley could be in a for a big game.

Good luck to Trevor, Chad, and Brandon.  They haven't won a trophy yet, and I'd rather they win than anyone on the other side of the bracket.

Week 12: We Finally Have Cannon Blasts

One day, I am going to learn video editing with photoshop or something, and when someone is officially eliminated from playoff contention (or from the playoffs), I want to play the cannon blast scene from the Hunger Games, and have each person's image projected on the screen.  Instead, you will just have to imagine four cannon blasts, one for TJ, Jordan, Skyler, and Tommy.

Game Recaps

Skyler vs Chad: In the upset of the week, number 12 Skyler took down number 2 Chad. In doing so, he opened the door for Brady to get the bye week, and Chad could potentially drop to the 4th or 5th seed.  But more on that later.  This game saw Skyler lead by over 100 points on Thursday night.  At one point, Chad was still projected to win, but season lows by Miles Sanders, Tyler Lockett, and Dalvin Cook (eliminating games he didn't play in) did him in.  Skyler got big games from AJ and Hollywood Brown, and Diontae Johnson -- all from his bench.  In all seriousness, he got a season-high score from Deshaun Watson, Duke Johnson, and a career-high score from Antonio Gibson.  This was also the weekly bonanza, and beat out Matt vs Brandon for that honor by ~6 points.

Brady vs Tommy: Josh Allen had a bye last week, so this was his first week with his new team.  He put up one of the lower games of his season at 17.48 points, but that didn't matter too much as three other guys on Brady's team outscored him, and two other guys still put up 16 points.  Tommy had several solid performances, but only James Robinson scored 25+ points.  In terms of other narratives and matchups within this matchup, this game was Carson's first start since Tommy traded for him. He acquired Carson by trading Montgomery to Skyler.  Skyler eventually traded him to Brady.  This week, Montgomery had his revenge game against Tommy by having his season-high score of 25 points.  Also, Brady's kicker scored 21 points this week.

Matt vs Brandon: If I had told you before this game started, that Kyler Murray and Melvin Gordon combined for 11 points, how many of you would have bet on Brandon to win? Maybe that bet would have evened up Matt's tab with Tyler, because Matt managed to win anyway.  Before this game, Kyler didn't score fewer than 24 points.  This week he had fewer than 8.  It didn't matter because Will Fuller V had XXXV points (a season-high), and season-high scores from Engram, Dan Bailey (kickers are people too), and over 73 points combined from DK, Kenyan, and the Saints DST.  Brandon had a normally great week at 133 points, but that only made him the 7th highest scorer of the week.  Brandon is sobbing all the way to first place -- but he could potentially move to the 5th seed next week.  Again, more on that later.

Trevor vs Rob: This was the beat down of the week. Most games were around 20 points apart, but this one ended at more than 55 (insert fantasy footballers sound drop here) points apart.  Trevor put the beatdown on by playing Tyreek Hill during one of the greatest games of all time.  Switching to real football for a moment, I really do enjoy watching the Chiefs (I know, that's super controversial), and seeing Tyreek this last week was watching greatness. I obviously want the Titans to win the Superbowl every year, but if we get the Chiefs playing in it every year, that's not a bad consolation prize.  Back to fantasy -- Ekeler and Samuel came back healthy, and nearly combined for 50 points.  Between those two and Tyreek, Trevor would have beaten Rob as they combined for over 100 points.  Rob was let down by most of his team, but no one more than Derek Carr.  If we round to the nearest point, Derek Carr got 1 point.  If we want to round to the nearest half-point, he got 0.5 points.  Four turnovers did him in as he scored 0.6 points this week.  That helped Rob be under 100 points for the week.  This week, the league averaged 130 points -- Rob scored nearly 35 points fewer than the league average.

TJ vs Tyler: Speaking of 35 points fewer than league average, let's talk about TJ. He had four guys score in the single digits, and only one guy score over 20. Tyler put the beatdown on with a season-high from Chubb, and 20+ point games from Rodgers and Evans. This was a really good week for Tyler, especially since Zeke and Kamara combined for 9.1 points.  Imagine telling the league on draft day that they would combine for 9.1 points in week 12.  It's been a weird year for sure.  

Kyle vs Jordan: Kyle won this game and locked in the 3 seed.  Mathematically he could move up, but it won't happen -- again, more on that later.  This was the nail-biter of the week, as it was the closest game.  It wasn't that much of a nail-biter though as they were about 17 points apart.  This was also the battle of ineptitude as they combined for the lowest combined score this week.  Kyle secured the win by getting a combined 50 points from Fitzpatrick and Allen Robinson.  Speaking of which, I'm glad Fitzpatrick got a chance to start again. Jordan tried to keep it close with good to solid games from Tonyan, the Cardinals DST, and Justin Jefferson.  Unfortunately, he didn't get the miracle he needed from Gus Edwards on Wednesday Afternoon Football.  The Gus Bus scored a TD late in the first quarter to give Jordan hope, but then did nothing else the rest of the game, which was odd given Dobbins and Ingram were out.

Award Season

Pick 'em: Skyler wins again, by getting 13 right, while Tyler got 11, and Tommy got 9.  Tommy does lead with 111 for the season, and Tyler right behind him with 109.

Highest Scorer of the Week:  It's Skyler for back to back weeks.  This is the highlight of his season given how the rest of his season has gone.

Lowest Scorer of the Week:  TJ was one of two teams under 100 points -- unfortunately, he was 0.8 points behind Rob for this award.

Luckiest Team of the Week: Kyle was the 8th lowest scorer of the week, but he still won, so he wins the award this week.

Unluckiest Team of the Week: Chad was the 6th highest scorer, but still lost, so he wins this award this week.

MVP: Tyreek. Hill.

LVP: There weren't any super close games where I could pick on someone for coming up short.  This goes to 0.6 Derek Carr.

Game Previews

As a note, there are no Thursday night games, and this is the last week of byes. Primetime will be Sunday night football and beyond (so all of Monday and Tuesday next week).

Skyler (10) vs Brady (4): Skyler has three players in primetime. He has one player on bye. Brady has three players in primetime. He has no players on bye.

Chad (3) vs Tommy (11): Chad has two players in primetime. He has one player on bye. Tommy has three players in primetime. He has two players on bye.

Trevor (2) vs Matt (7): Trevor has four players in primetime. He has no players on bye. Matt has one player in primetime. He has no players on bye.

Brandon (1) vs Rob (8): Brandon has three players in primetime. He has one player on bye. Rob has five players in primetime (assuming Julio is healthy and Rob plays him). He has no players on bye.

Kyle (5) vs TJ (9): Kyle has one player in primetime. He has two players on bye. TJ has two players in primetime. He has three players on bye.

Tyler (6) vs Jordan(12): Tyler has two players in primetime. He has two players on bye. Jordan has one player in primetime. He has no players on bye.

Playoff Previews

Eliminated - Skyler, Tommy, TJ, and Jordan.

Playoffs clinched - Chad, Brady, Brandon, Trevor, and Kyle

Playoffs TBD - Matt, Rob, and Tyler.

Bye's clinched: None. 

• Brandon can clinch with a win OR a Trevor loss. If he loses, and Trevor wins, it will come down to tie-breakers
• Brady/Chad/Kyle - clinch if one wins and the other two loses.  If all win (or all lose), Chad currently leads by fewer than 19 points over Brady, so it's still within reach for Brady to catch Chad on points.  Kyle is currently 60 points behind Brady and 80 points behind Chad, so the only realistic way he clinches a bye is if he wins and the other two loses.
• Trevor can clinch with a win AND a Brandon loss AND factoring in the above scenarios.
• Current lead on points if it comes down to a 5 way tie
• Trevor 1586
• Brandon 1582
• Chad 1577
• Brady 1558
• Kyle 1497

Divisions clinched: Kyle (West).

Wild Card Scenarios:

• The two lowest winning/scoring team of the 5 teams above
• The highest winning/scoring team of Matt, Rob, and Tyler.
• None of them play each other this week, so there is no elimination game between them.
• If one wins, and the other two loses, he is the 6 seed.  No offense to TJ, but Tyler has the easiest matchup by far.
• Current lead on points if it comes down to a 3 way tie
• Tyler 1606
• Matt 1596
• Rob 1394
  
• If all three lose, but Matt outscores Tyler, he could move into 6th.

Good luck to Brady (I won't be throwing my game, don't worry), Chad, Trevor, Rob, Kyle, and Tyler this week.  That would make the most chaos at the top, but less chaos at the bottom.