After some high scoring games in week 15, we finally know our matchup for the championship -- Trevor vs Brady. They were the top two seeds going into the playoffs, which has happened 5 other times in recorded league history. I thought it was going to be lower. But before we go into the details of this upcoming game, let's look at the games behind us.
Game Recaps
Trevor vs Brandon: Brandon put up a solid 136.44 this week. Of the 8 teams in action this week, that was the 4th highest score. However, this is the playoffs and all of those bottom-feeder teams are playing Christian McCaffrey. In the games that mattered, Brandon's 136.44 was the lowest score of the playoff teams. I don't really know what it feels like to have 136.44 be a bad week, but that is why I'm playing for 11th place. Anyway, Brandon had some really nice games from a wide variety of people, but none of them broke 26 points. Trevor had one guy score 30 and another score 43 while also having solid games from other players as well. What's crazy is that Trevor made almost every wrong call on who to start (of players healthy that is). His bench TE outscored his starting TE by 18 points, and of his 5 RB who played this week, he started 3 of them, and the two on the bench were his #1 and #3 scoring running backs this week. Apparently, this was just his week, and there's nothing Brandon could have done about it.
Tyler vs Brady: In the other semifinal matchup, the unlikely trio of Josh Allen, David Montgomery, and Tony Pollard combined for 100 points, which meant the other 6 people on Brady's team combined for just a hair under 60 points. Tyler's top 3 players scored just over 70 points, meaning the other 6 people on his team scored 70 points. Moral of the story -- when your studs go off, you win important games. I know, that's a revolutionary take, and no one has ever thought of it before in fantasy football. Maybe I can apply it next year and have studs go off during regular-season games. In good news for Brady, George Kittle could be back this weekend. I'm not sure Brady wants to trust him right away, but Kittle would certainly be an upgrade over Irv Smith.
Award Season
Tommy was the only one to make any picks this week, so he takes the season lead over Tyler. With an 11 game lead and only two weeks to go, I think Tommy wins this for the season.
Championship Preview
Trevor vs Brady: It has all come down to one final game. The preseason numbers had Brady at an 80% chance to make the playoffs (4th best in the league), and Trevor at a 65% chance (10th best in the league), which means Trevor outperformed the projections by a healthy margin, and Brady has performed as expected..
The schedule is a little different with Christmas Eve and Christmas. The earliest game this week happens on Friday instead of Thursday. Trevor has 0 players on Thursday, 5 players on Saturday, and 1 player in prime time. Brady has 0 players on Friday, 1 player on Saturday, and 1 player in primetime. Trevor's last primetime player plays on Sunday night (Tannehill), and Brady's last primetime player plays on Monday night (Josh Allen). Those were the MVP's of their respective teams last week, so it seems like we won't know the champion until late Monday.
This year, Brady leads Trevor (weeks 1-13, 15) 8 to 6, including the actual head to head win in week 6. However, in the last 4 weeks, Trevor leads Brady 3-1. In the one week that Brady led Trevor in the last four weeks, he only beat Trevor by 3.
Trevor leads in all time regular season matchups 6-5. They have never met in the playoffs, and I don't care to look up the consolation bracket information. Fun fact: This is the first year and Brady and Trevor have made the playoffs at the same time. We will see one or the other (or neither), but we've never seen both until now.
Brady is 1 for 2 in the playoffs, and now is tied for the league lead in championship appearances at 3 (he is tied with Skyler [3-0], Rob [2-1], and Chad [0-3]. If he wins, he becomes the 3rd multi championship winner, and joins Rob with a winning record in the championship. Trevor makes his first appearance, and he is building off of last year where he made his first semi-final apperance. All 3 of Brady's championship appearances have come in the last 4 years. This has been the best stretch of their respective fantasy careers.
Looking head to head at each position, I give Brady the edge at QB, RB1, TE, Flex, and K. I give Trevor the edge at RB2 (especially if Zeke plays), WR1, WR2, and DST. I think QB, RB1, and DST are narrow advantages, and Flex depdning on McLaurin health. I think WR1, WR2, and K are bigger advantages, and RB2, TE, and Flex are very much dependent on injuries and who plays, and I could see those going either way.
My final guess, Tannehill, Hopkins, and Hill go off and take Trevor to the promised land, and he gets his name on the trophy for the first time.
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