Monday, December 8, 2014

Week 14: First Round of the Playoffs

So the first round of the playoffs is over (halfway over in my two ESPN/high school leagues).  So the first half of my auction (ESPN/High School friend) league, I beat Tyler by 75, but he has next week to match and/or beat me.  If he doesn't beat me by 75, I will advance to the championship.  In my other ESPN/High School friend league, I lost to Jon.  If I don't beat him by 53 next week he advances to the championship.

In my ESPN/work league I managed to sneak out a 10 point come-from-behind victory thanks to Julio Jones.  I was the 7-seed and I beat the 2-seed.  It felt great.  With that win, I make the semi-finals in every league. It's rather exciting.  Having a shot at the championship in every league is about all you can hope for.  In all reality, fantasy football is all about luck, and now I need just two more weeks of luck to get the championship trophy.  Right now I'll take one lucky week, and then maybe ask for another after I get the first wish.

And do you know why I need that luck? Because I'm playing my playoff arch-rival Chad.  In the regular season, Brady is enemy number one.  However, come playoff time, Chad is enemigo numero uno.  He has knocked me out of the playoffs 2 years in a row, and I am sick of it.  I'm really hoping that the third time is the charm.  So I got my predictions right last week.  Jordan beat Tyler, and Chad beat Trevor.  They tried to make a game of it.  Chad had something like a 45 point lead, and then ended up only winning by 1 point exactly.

So next week is me against Chad, and Ren against Jordan.  The matchups are interesting for Chad and me.  Roethlisberger should have a field day against Atlanta.  Meaning he won't.  Or if he does it will all be to Brown.  The only place I feel like I have an advantage over Chad is my Tight End and my flex (Gronk and Evans).  The matchups make everything else even.  Murray was terrible against Philadelphia 2 games ago, which puts him about equal with Lynch and his terrible game against the 49ers.  I won't get into any more depth, but I'm not comfortable picking myself in this matchup.  I might pick Ren to win, but it's also close.  The QB's are about equal, Ren has better RB's, and has the better TE.  Jordan has the edge at WR, but Ren's are getting better.  Still, advantage Jordan.  Another big advantage for Jordan is he has Ren's QB's top WR.  If that made sense, good for you.  You are a rather smart person.

Anyway, that's it for this week.  I need to go to bed or something.  Not that there is much going on this week.  I've done basically everything I need to before finals.  It feels good -- until the finals start that is.  Ugh.  Well finals got me out of the fantasy football mood.  Peace out.

Monday, December 1, 2014

Week 13: End of the Regular Season

As Tyler asked me about several times during the year, the quest is finally over.  I lose in the last week and my 12-0 record goes to 12-1.  As long as I go undefeated in the playoffs that's all that matters.  There was no Konner beating out Hukill for the last spot, so everything fell as it looked like it would 2 weeks ago.  Here is the recap just in case.  I got the 1 seed, Ren got 2, Jordan has 3, Trevor has 4, Chad has 5, and Tyler has 6.  Trevor plays Chad and Jordan plays Tyler.  The winner of Chad/Trevor plays me, and the winner of Tyler/Jordan plays Ren.

On an interesting note, before this year, Chad's 2012 team was the worst team to ever make the playoffs (based on points scored).  He was the 2nd worst that year as far as total points, though he did make it to the semifinals.  Tyler has bested him this year.  Tyler was last place in points scored, yet he managed to get into the playoffs.  He enjoyed pointing out that he was supposed to finish last according to this post from earlier in the year and yet made the playoffs, and did so in a way that would make Dan Patrick and Ron Burgundy proud.

Anyway, all that matters is the playoffs now.  I just checked and the consolation thing passed, so the consolation bracket winner gets to pick his draft spot, and then number 2 picks and so on down the line.  Every consolation game matters, so that means instead of just basing it off your schedule after you are eliminated from the consolation bracket, I will base the final standings for the consolation bracket teams on the 9th place game and the 11th place game.  I do like Ren's idea about setting a deadline, but we can work that out a little later.

For those in the playoffs, I will do it the same as I always have.  If for example Chad and Jordan lose in the first round, I will base their picks on regular season, not the consolation bracket or seeding.  So even though Jordan got the 3 seed, he had a worse record, and he would get the lower pick.  If two teams end with the same regular season record, the lower point total will be awarded with the lower pick.  The 6th place team will get the highest (meaning highest to the top of the draft) pick left.  So if for some strange reason the consolation bracket people take picks 7-12, and Jordan and Chad both lose in the first round of the playoffs, Jordan would get the first pick next year and Chad would get number 2.  I feel like this makes enough sense, but if not, text/call me and I can explain it over the phone.

Anyway, time for my guesses next week.  I am picking Chad and Jordan to win.  No in depth analysis here -- just what my gut says.  Chad has eliminated me from the playoffs 2 years in a row, and my guy tells me he will get a shot at number 3.  Also on that note, I have eliminated Jordan 3 years in a row, so maybe I will get the chance to beat Chad and vanquish those demons, and then Jordan will get the chance to beat me.  Who knows.

Here are some interesting playoff story lines:
I will have made 5 straight semi-finals appearances and Ren will have made 3 this year, and Chad is going for 3 if he beats Trevor..  Ren has never been in the championship game, and I haven't since 2011.
Chad is looking to be the first person to make 3 straight finals appearances, while him and Tyler hope to be the first to make 3 finals period (Modern Era/Post Mission).
Tyler is looking to be the first back-to-back champion.
Tyler, Jordan, and me are hoping to be the first two time champions.
Every game, or possible game is a rematch unless Jordan and I make the finals -- we didn't play each other this year.

Ok, well that's it.  I'm going to bed now and I'm going to enjoy the week off in this league to focus on the league where I barely made the playoffs.  Good regular season gentlemen.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Week 12: The Playoff Positions

So the last thing to worry about is Kyle vs. Konner for this week because everything else is decided.  I locked up the 1st seed, Ren locked up the 2nd seed, Trevor and Chad will finish 4th and 5th (if Chad wins next week and Trevor loses, they will tie on record, and chad will win on points, but it doesn't really matter in the long run), and the winner of Tyler and Jordan next week will get the 3rd seed.  If Kyle beats Jordan tonight, it gives Konner a bigger shot of getting into the playoffs.

Jordan and Tyler will face off at 6-6.  If one of them would have made a trade with my for my running backs, they likely would have won this week.  Sorry, back to the point of this blog.  Konner would only be 1 game behind at 5-7.  If he won next week over Kyle, he would have the same record as the loser of Tyler and Jordan and would get in on a tie breaker of points.  Considering Jordan is up by about 90 in total points, he would want Tyler to be the loser.  Seeing as how he is cheering for Jordan to win next week, it doesn't really matter if Jordan wins this week.

Rob was eliminated this week with the loss.  So the only thing of real interest next week is the battle for 6th between Konner and Tyler.  Again, Tyler could have locked up the playoffs this week by winning, which could have happened by trading with me.  But he might make it anyway.  See you all in week 13.  But we know Chad and Trevor are playing each other in week 14, and I play the winner of them in week 15.  Jordan will play Konner or Tyler in week 14, and the winner of that game will play ren in week 15.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Week 11: Who is in, and who is out of the playoffs.

I won’t get into much here because I have a decent amount of homework to do, so I’ll cut to the chase.  Most of the teams in the playoffs have been decided this week. I am assuming that Tyler’s tight end gets him the point necessary to win.  If Tyler somehow loses, I’m not sure if anyone is mathematically eliminated, but I’d have to double check.  Not really worth it since I assume he wins.  Anyway, about the playoffs. Skyler, Ren, Chad and Trevor are in.  Geoff, Brady, Matt and Kyle are out.  The winner of Jordan and Tyler in week 13 is in. 

That leaves Konner, Rob and the loser of Jordan/Tyler for the last spot.  If Jordan or Tyler win next week, they are in.  Basically for Rob or Konner to get in, they need the future loser of Jordan/Tyler to lose out, they would need to win out themselves, and then they would need to get in on points tie breaker.  Currently Tyler has the lower point total of the two, so they should probably hope for Tyler to lose out, and since Konner and Tyler play each other next week, that will be the big game.  That’s it for now.  Maybe after I’m done with homework tonight I’ll write more.

Monday, November 10, 2014

Week 10: Recap

Another week, another column (in my head it went with a Jay-Z line of “another day, another dollar”…just go with it), and another chance to talk about the crazy things that happened.  Except, the crazy stuff I wanted to see happen didn’t happen, and I’m a little disappointed.  Had Geoff and Brady won it would have made the wild card race even more fun, and the South division would be a little messier.  Instead they both lost, and the South is still messy – just at the top and not for 2nd and 3rd in the division.  Oh well. 

Trevor now has a one game lead over the entire West division, and Chad has a two game lead.  Right now it looks like each division will get 2 teams in the playoffs.  Interestingly enough, if the playoff started today (which they don’t and I sometimes hate when media does this, but I’m doing it anyway) Chad would play Trevor and the winner would play me, and Jordan and Tyler would play each other and the winner would play Ren.  So Jordan will jump from the 6th seed to the 3rd seed, and Tyler goes from 6 to 3, but they would still play each other.  I doubt everything stays the same the next three weeks, but if that somehow does, they would be fighting for the division championship, but the better seed wouldn’t do them any good.  Maybe the lowest of the division winners shouldn’t be given the 3 seed automatically.  Just a thought.

Next week division games begin again, so we should see division races tighten up.  Chad and Trevor each have a magic number of 1 to clinch their division.  The South is still a mess, with the top two teams being 5-4, and then Konner being one game behind, while Kyle is two games behind.  Kyle could win out and finish no worse than second in his division.  If he won out, and Konner beat both Tyler and Jordan, Kyle could win the division, though that’s not likely.  I suppose Tyler and Jordan could tie in their game, but that’s very unlikely, so basically the future winner of that game has an additional game lead over Konner and Kyle.  We just won’t know who that is until the last week of the season.  Ren and I cannot finish behind Kyle, Konner, Jordan, Tyler, Matt, Rob, Geoff, or Brady.  So we have gotten into the playoffs.  We could still lose the division titles, so we aren’t guaranteed a bye, but we are in the playoffs.  Chad can’t finish behind Geoff, Brady, Matt or Kyle – so while not guaranteed a spot if he were to lose out, he is in pretty good shape.  Trevor can’t finish behind Brady or Kyle, but that appears to be it.

Now that we know who is for sure in, let’s take a look at who is for sure out.  Matt and Brady can’t finish ahead of Me, Ren, Chad, and Trevor.  So even they aren’t eliminated from what I can tell.  To get in they would both need to win out, have Geoff and Rob lose out, and then either Tyler or Jordan to lose out (for this example, we will say Tyler since he has less points).  So if Jordan won out, and Tyler lost out, they would need Kyle to beat Konner.  Then Jordan would finish 8-5, Tyler would finish 5-8, Konner would finish 5-8, and Kyle would finish 5-8, and then Brady and Matt would finish 5-8, Rob would finish 4-9 and Geoff would finish 3-10.  And then only one of those 5-8 teams would make it.  If there is a Santa, I have a new Christmas wish – please make this happen!  So realistically they won’t make the playoffs, but it could happen.  However, they both won’t make the playoffs even if this did happen, so one of them is for sure eliminated, we just don’t know who yet.  That last week would be stressful.  All the right teams have to lose, and then everyone would worry about scoring the most points to win the tiebreaker.  And that’s if I did my math right just now.

So next week I think we can start eliminating people from the playoffs, but I hope not.  I don’t have much more to say about this week, other than I finally beat Konner in this league.  I am in two leagues with him, and I have beaten him in the other league before, but never this one.  It feels good.  But I’m sure he’s ok with it because they had a great comeback against Stansbury last week.  5 straight touchdowns in the last quarter and the last 5 seconds of the 3rd quarter to get the com from behind victory.  They play pine view this week at Rice Eccles.  So good luck to Dixie next week, and good luck to my miracle 5-8 scenario.  Also, I went 4-2 last week with my bye week advantages.  I was part of the 2 that I got wrong, so I'm ok with that, and the other was the Brady vs. Rob toss up.

Weekly Record: 3-1
Year to Date: 29-11

Monday, November 3, 2014

Week 10: More Bye Weeks and Magic Numbers

I went back to my last blog post to see how my predictions worked out, and I noticed just how many mistakes I made – both grammatically and fantasy wise.  I won’t correct my grammar errors on here, but I will acknowledge any fantasy prediction mistakes I had.  Here we go in the order that I made guesses last week.  Before I get to that, I will say that it appears my bye week advantages will win each game, so I did do something right.  Anyway, moving on.

Rob and me – I wasn’t sure if I had the big advantage over Rob (I didn’t) but my team came to play. It’s highly unlikely he makes a comeback tonight, but I suppose it could happen.

Matt and Geoff – I was wrong thinking that Matt would be in last no matter what.  It was definitely the battle for last place.  Geoff won, and should jump from 11th overall to 8th overall.  Very nice jump for him.  Anyway, Geoff overcame Tate being on bye and Bernard on injury.  Geoff scares me – I think he is getting hot and has a real shot at the playoffs.

Konner and Trevor – Rough week for Konner in fantasy football, not in high school football.  Trevor got the win and now has the inside track to the 5th seed.

Ren and Jordan – I might have been a little wrong about blowout, and I was also wrong about Demaryius Thomas and my paid vacation comment.  I thought it was so creative, and I wanted to use it.  I was also wrong about Peyton going bonkers, though he still played well.  As long as Fleener doesn’t go bonkers, Ren will win.

Brady and Tyler – I had the right call on bye week advantage, wrong call on who was going to win.  Everyone lost that Brady needed to lose, but he couldn’t get the win.  Some of that is Rivers getting -2 points, and some is on starting the wrong guys. Looking at his team though, I can’t say I fault him for his roster choices.

Kyle and Chad – Kyle’s depth really hurt him this week.  Not sure what else to say about it.  He should bounce back next week and have a better point total.  For Chad it will be interesting to see how Sanu plays with Green back, but so far, so good.

Magic Numbers – So after this week, if everything holds like I think it will, here are some magic number updates.  Chad’s magic number for the division championship is now 2.  So it would be super nice if I won and he lost next week.  Chad has a good shot at winning, and I think I lose to Konner, so that number should stay the same for another week.  Rob and Matt each lost, and Ren won, so they can no longer win the division.  Trevor’s number is 2 because Ren won as well.
Tyler won this week, and now has the division lead by one game.  It’s still really close, but Kyle’s magic number should be 3, but I’m not 100% if the head to head matchup changes anything.  I think it only speeds up Kyle’s ability to come back or to be eliminated from winning the division.  Jordan and Konner have a magic number of 4.  Not that Konner, Tyler and Jordan can all win out, but if they could, Tyler wouldn’t clinch until the last week.  Considering it’s all division games starting in week 11, a lot of things can change, and can change quickly. 

Wild Card – Chad has the 4th seed, and leads Trevor by 1 game, who has the 5th seed, and then 6th seed is still crammed.  Jordan currently leads the 6 seed and is currently 4-5.  He is beating Konner on points.  Kyle, Rob and Geoff are 1 game behind, and Brady and Matt are 2 games behind the 6 seed.  I think everyone can mathematically still get the 4 seed, but I haven’t looked into head to head schedules enough to say how likely that is.

Bye Week Advantages: Week 10 – I will try and be quicker here than last week. I will name the person who I think has the advantage from bye weeks, and I will note if I think the other person still has the game advantage.
Skyler & Konner – Konner (I will be missing some important Patriots, namely my RB and TE)
Jordan & Geoff – Jordan (Jordan should be down a TE, Geoff will be down his QB, a WR, and a RB or two)
Matt & Chad – Chad (Chad will only be missing Malcom Floyd, and his kicker, Matt will miss a TE, his DST and two WR’s)
Rob & Brady – Brady (This is close, Brady is missing some important players, but Rob is missing a lot of players, so he would need to do more work this week to put in a full roster)
Ren & Tyler – Ren (Ren is missing Foster, though he is hurt, and a bunch of bench rotation players, maybe the occasional flex, Tyler will miss his MVP in Luck, and also Edelman.  His QB depth isn’t bad, but losing your best player is never good)
Trevor & Kyle – Trevor (Trevor is only going to miss his DST, Kyle will miss a TE, WR, K, and DST)

Next Week Scenarios – Geoff and Jordan is a big one.  Geoff is currently up by about 10 points, but back one win.  Next week would jump Geoff up over Jordan, and possibly over Konner, but I do think Konner will beat me, and will stay ahead of Geoff.  Another big one is Brady and Rob.  If Brady wins he would jump Rob, and possibly Kyle (who plays Trevor).  Those are the two big games that could change the standings and the wild card race.  That’s it for me.  Good luck to everyone but Konner next week.

Weekly Record: 3-1
Year to Date: 26-10

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Week 9: Bye Week Previews and Some Magic Number

I decided that I would write a second post this week simply because I am bored in my class.  First I will look at bye weeks and then I’ll go into some magic numbers for playoff spots and division winners.  This week begins bye week hell.  Before this week, only 2 teams were ever on a bye.  This week, 6 teams are on a bye.  That will happen next week as well.  Week 11 only 4 teams will be a on a bye, week 12 only 2 teams will be on a bye, and then there will be no more byes.  So now we see how well each owner can manage, and how well waiver pickups have gone.

Starting with mine and Rob’s game, we will both be missing our QB’s.  We will also be missing top WR’s, though I haven’t played Megatron once since acquiring him.  Rob’s recent waiver acquisition Bryce Brown is also out, as is his defense.  Both of those two are easily replaceable because he hasn’t been depending on them all year.  I believe the bye hurts Rob more than me because Stafford has played better than Ryan the last couple of weeks, and because I’ve been playing without Megatron, so his being out isn’t any different for me.

Next up according to the order of the game center layout are Matt and Geoff.  I thought it was the battle for last, but even if Matt wins, Geoff likely stays ahead based on points.  Anyway, on to the bye weeks.  Matt gets Kaepernick back, but loses Lacy, Marshall, as well as Wright, Adams and Sankey.  Those last three aren’t big other than they could be used as bye week subs.  It will be interesting to see how he manages his team this week.  Geoff will be missing Cutler (who he hasn’t needed as of late anyway) and Golden Tate who has been solid with Megatron’s absence.  There is a small chance of Gio missing due to injury, but that’s not the point of this writing, so bye week advantage Geoff.  Geoff is deep enough to cover Tate being out and could cover Gio being hurt.

The strive for 5 – Konner vs. Trevor.  This is a great time to face Konner.  High school football playoffs are starting soon, and I doubt Konner cares much about fantasy during this stretch, but who knows.  Konner has a real rough bye week scenario.  He loses Forte, Cobb, Bennett, and his kicker (least big deal). Trevor is only down Jordy and his kicker.  Advantage Trevor.

Ren and Jordan have another game, and even before the bye information I was picking Ren to win, but now I’m thinking blowout.  Jordan will be missing Rodgers, White and Steven Jackson, but he should get Green back from injury.  Jordan will miss one of his two guys that can win a game for your single handedly, and the other one is tied to Ren’s QB.  Ren will be missing Julio Jones who has barely cracked 30 points with his last 3 games combined – so not the biggest loss with the way he has been playing.  The other problem for Jordan is that this is Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady week, and I expect Manning to go bonkers.  But I think Demaryius will get a paid vacation to Revis Island and not do much to help the Broncos or Jordan, so that won’t even help him.  Anyway, advantage Ren.

Brady and Tyler have the smallest amount of bye week impact, as Tyler has no one on bye, and Brady only has two guys, Walker, and Fred Jackson, who has been injured anyway.  I think this is the one game where the guy with the bye week advantage doesn’t win. Bye advantage Tyler, but win for Brady.

Kyle and Chad round out the week, with Chad looking like the bye week winner, he is missing Jacquizz Rodgers, who hasn’t been starting for Chad that I’ve noticed.  He will be missing Watkins though, who has been huge as of late.  Speaking of which, Chad didn’t listen to me when I tried to swindle Watkins away.  I’m still mad about that.  Kyle on the other will be missing about half of his running backs.  He currently can start a recently injured Rashad Jennings, who likely won’t play in real life.  Knile Davis is a backup to Charles, which isn’t promising, and Benny Cunningham is in an RBBC situation at best, though he did have three straight weeks at double digits before last week.  Chad probably loses the single best player this matchup, but Kyle has some serious depth issues.  Advantage Chad

So now that the bye weeks have been looked at, time for some magic numbers.  I think I first heard about the magic number from MLB, though it could have been NBA.  Basically the magic number comes from number of the top team’s wins and bottom team’s losses.  For example, Geoff and Brady’s magic number last week was 1, and as soon as I won or they lost, they couldn’t win the division.  So the magic number for me to clinch the division/for Chat to not win the division is 3.  I have a 3 game lead with 5 games left.  If I win 3 more games, I win the division, or if Chad loses 3 I win the division, or a combination of 2 wins for me, 1 loss for chad or 2 losses for Chad or 1 win for me.  So now that we have that established, I will go ahead and apply this to the non-leaders of the South division in comparison to the division leader, and the West is way too tight for me to attempt.  I will attempt todo wild card numbers (6 seed) as well.

South Magic Numbers: Bhers magic number is 1.  As soon as he loses, or Ren wins, he can no longer win the division. Rob’s magic number is 2.  So both Rob and Matt could be shut out after this week from the division championship.  Trevor’s magic number is 3.

Wildcard Numbers:  Currently Chad is number 4, even though he is ahead of the whole West Division.  Someone from the West has to make the playoffs.  However, because they are all tied, I will put them all into the wildcard consideration.  With 5 weeks to go, no one is eliminated from the playoff hunt.  And after sitting here thinking about it, this is way too much to try and figure out, and it’s way too close.  Considering the 5 and 6 seeds are at 4-4 and the 10, 11, and 12 spots are only 2 games behind, it’s a little hard to figure it out.  Maybe in the next couple of weeks I’ll be able to do it.  Anyway, that’s it for this week.

Weekly Record: 3-1 (another lucky week, barely beating Matt and getting some luck against Tommy)

Year to Date: 23-9

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Week 8: A Day Early Look at the League

So I am taking a break from my take home midterm to bring you all a bonus fantasy football coverage.  And by bonus, I mean a day early – I doubt I do one tomorrow.  So 5 of the 6 games are basically decided.  I will apologize to Chad if I somehow jinx his game, but I don’t think Tyler’s DST will score 33 points to beat Chad.  I mean I think he only pulls that crap out against Chad during the championship game once we have all given Chad the win.  Anyway, moving on to what happened this week, and what it could all mean. 

Geoff and Brady finally get their 2nd wins, and they do it by being the two highest scorers this week.  Also, both go to the U, who beat USC last night, so they are riding a good football wave.  You know who else went to the U? Tyler.  You know who loves USC? Chad?  Yup, Tyler is coming back and getting that win over Chad (This is a small attempt at a Bill Simmons reverse jinx strategy, because I wan the playoff race to be close).  So if I beat Matt, Geoff and Brady jump 1 spot each.  If I lose, they stay in the bottom two spots.  Right now I’m projected to win by 4, which basically means nothing.  If each players gets their average, I will win by about 5.  So i don't know what to think.  If Matt wins, he would likely pass Kyle, and he would need to go crazy on the scoring to pass Rob.  If I win, Matt drops to last, Brady and Geoff jump up a spot, and they would be a game behind Kyle and Rob, but would be ahead of them based on points.

The next 4 are Tyler (assuming he loses), Trevor, Jordan, and Konner, unless Jordan’s kicker scores something like 33 points. Those are all of those in the 4-4 group.  Chad would be at 5-3, Ren would be at 7-1, and I would be at 8-0.  That would mean next week we would have some interesting matchups. 

In week 9 we would see the battle for last place between Geoff and Matt as they go head to head. Konner would take on Trevor to see who would get to win number 5.  Chad will play Kyle, which would be a big game for Brady and Geoff (if Kyle loses), as would me versus Rob (if Rob loses).  If Kyle and Rob lose next week, and Brady and Geoff both win, that would put them to 8th and 9th, and would be a game behind the loser of Konner and Trevor, a game behind Tyler (assuming he loses this week, and on the condition Brady beats him next week) and a game behind Jordan (because Jordan plays Ren, and the only way you seem to be able to beat Ren is if Peyton is on a bye).

In week 10 (last week before we go back to division games) Geoff will play Jordan, which if Geoff won could pull him even with Jordan, Rob will play Brady, and Brady would pull even with Jordan if he beats Rob.  Ren will likely beat Tyler, so that would put Tyler on the same level as the Jordan, Geoff, and Brady, and that would be a crazy battle for at least the 6th seed, if not the 5th depending on what happens with Trevor and Konner the next two weeks.  The point of all this is that the next two weeks could be crazy…but you never know with fantasy.

I loved that my game was done last week before Sunday Night Football even happened.  I suppose the karma is coming back around and Matt and I each have two players going tomorrow night.  Looking at this from a not that educated, but still knowing enough about football perspective, the Cowboys will likely have a lead (good for Murray, bad for Bryant) and want to kill the clock, and the Redskins will need to throw (good for Garcon and Reed) to stay in the game, which could be good for the Cowboys DST to force some turnovers with points (which would get Tyler his miraculous win).  It’s more entertaining over the next two weeks if Tyler and Matt lose this week, so I think we should all be cheering for that.

Anyway, there is my early/bonus coverage of the week.  I will now be going back to my midterm.  Also, I am ashamed of my actions in my Western Woods league.  I left a guy in who was ruled out this morning.  I’m not sure I’ve ever done that before.  It felt horrible, and dirty.  I wouldn’t likely win either way looking at it now, but still.  I hate that it happened.  Also, I could go 1-3 this week if I don’t beat Matt, or get some luck against Tommy in another league.  Not a good week for me.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Week 7: Luck is in the Eye of the Fantasy Team Owner

The fantasy football luck Gods giveth, and the fantasy football luck Gods taketh away.  Tyler lost last week by 0.74 and will win this week by 0.86.  You never know how things will bounce.  Speaking of bad luck, Chad pointed out to me that through 6 weeks, Ren is the leading scorer and that the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th leading scorers were all in the North division.  Yet two of them only had 1 win each.  That’s some bad luck, as is being 2nd and 3rd in total points allowed, which they are.  More back luck, Brady is going to lose by .52 because Foster caught the touchdown.  Had he rushed it in, Brady would have won by 0.48.  Also, in my feeling bad for Brady, his last 4 games he has lost by a combined 14.19 points.  This week alone 4 of the 6 games had a bigger margin than that.

Enough about others, more about me. Even though I traded away Bell right before his best week of the year, I still managed to win.  I was simply hoping to win 1 of the next 3, so now I’m playing with house money – that doesn't mean I don’t want to win the next two though.  Also, Ren just pulled victory from out of nowhere, and I still only have a one game lead over him.  I thought I was going to have a two game lead over him.  Suck.  Shane Vereen was my surprise scorer which was nice, and Matt Ryan has been under performing for some time.  Ugh.

In other games, Chad won (meaning I still only have a 3 game lead in division) over Trevor in what was the game of the week because they were the #3 and #4 teams.  Chad’s win will put him into third place.  Konner won and will also jump Trevor because of the points tie breaker. So Trevor drops down to 5th.  Fortunately for him, Rob lost, so he doesn't lose any ground to Rob.  Tyler did win, and so Rob will drop in the overall standings below Tyler.  Jordan will move up over Kyle, and the bottom 3 will stay the same.

So the standings look something like this:
Skyler 7-0
Ren 6-1
Chad 4-3
Konner 4-3
Trevor 4-3
Tyler 4-3
Jordan 3-4
Rob 3-4
Kyle 3-4
Matt 2-5
Brady 1-5
Geoff 1-5
So the big games next week will be Chad and Tyler, Brady and Kyle, Rob and Geoff, and Trevor and Jordan.  They either have the same record or are one game apart. If Jordan loses, Rob loses, and Kyle loses, Brady and Geoff wouldn't move too far up (they would jump Matt), but they would be only one game behind the 7-9 spots, and could make a move to pass them and target the last wild card spot.

I won’t go into projections right now, I’ll just mention key bye week players for those games.  For Geoff and Rob, the only serious bye or injuries are Andre Williams on bye and Montee Ball who is likely out, leaving Rob a little thin at RB.  Chad and Tyler: The 49ers are out meaning Chad loses Gore and Davis (not that he has played Davis much) and Tyler will lose the 49ers DST. Brady and Kyle:  Only Fred Jackson looks to be out, so this should be a regular game. Jordan and Trevor:  Trevor will be without Crabtree and Donnell, and Jordan will miss Boldin, but Green should be back that week.

That’s all for this week.  We should see a more interesting playoff landscape the next two or three weeks if any of the middle or lower teams can put together a win streak.  Good luck to everyone but Matt next week.

Weekly Record: 3-1 (I’m simply waiting for the 1-3 or 0-4 week, you will hear/read my gripe about it when I do)

Year to Date: 20-8

Monday, October 13, 2014

Week 6: The Luck of the Scottish

I’ll just go ahead and say it.  I got super lucky to win this week.  But before I get to that, I am sad for Victor Cruz.  Sure, it’s because it changes my fantasy team, but he seems like a good guy and it was a non-contact injury – which is basically just a freak accident. Onto the positive.  DeMarco Murray is a beast.  I picked him up the same year I picked up Cruz and have had them as keepers since.  Murray is making the most of his last year, whereas Cruz is done for the year. 

Anyway, back to my lucky week.  I ended up beating Tyler by 0.74.  He had texted me to complain about Murray’s garbage time touchdown, and I told him that St. Louis could get the ball back and then throw a pick 6 to give Tyler the lead.  So of course that is what happened.  I got a text from Matt saying that sucks, same with Kyle, and then I called Tyler to tell curse him out for beating me because I jinxed myself.  As I was on the phone with Tyler, the Rams got the ball back, and got enough yards to drop Tyler 3 points, and give me the narrow margin of victory, and then Kyle and Matt texted me to say something to the effect of “lucky”.  I’m not sure what I did to get so lucky, but I am grateful for it.  It capped off what was probably the best possible week for me in this league.

My goal this season is to get the first round bye.  I may be in first place, but I believe Ren has the better team.  Sure his last couple of victories have been narrow, but his team scares me the most of anyone in the league.  So the goal is take 2nd and get the first round bye.  I’m banking on Ren winning his division, so I don’t have to worry about anyone else from the South getting the bye.  My biggest concerns are Chad, because he is in my division, and then most of the west because they are all tied except for Jordan, and I have no idea how that division will go.

So it's always good for me to win, but it was also good that Tyler lost, because it keeps him 3 games behind me – same with Kyle and Konner.  Now those three are tied in their division, and I have an ok lead on them.  I kind of wanted Jordan to win because it would put all of that crazy division tied, and would keep Rob down (another team that is a little scary), but it wasn’t a huge deal that Rob won.  Trevor is starting to worry me a little bit (should be 3rd place because of his record), so it would have been nice for him to lose…stupid Crabtree.  And in the game of the week (Chad and Ren) I wasn’t sure who I wanted to win. 

If Chad won, my division lead would stay at 2 games, but my league lead would have been at 2 games because Ren lost.  If Ren won, I would only be one game ahead of him, which is basically not a lead at all in my book, but I would have a lead in my division by 3 games.  I finally decided to cheer for Chad because it would boost my division, as well as give me a small chance at finishing with the #1 seed and not the #2 seed – so of course Ren won.  Because my goal is a first round bye, this still doesn’t really hurt me too much.  I’m just lucky I got this win.  Not only because I won by so little, but because I could have only beat 3 teams this week, and I was lucky enough to play one of them.

So here is a rough breakdown of division and then overall, and then wildcard spots. – this will likely be up on the league site by the time you read this, so feel free to ignore it, or correct any errors I make.

Skyler – 0 games behind
Chad – 3 GB
Brady – 5 GB
Geoff – 5 GB
Brady was 4th overall in points before this week, but Geoff is sitting slightly prettier in my book because Brady still has to play Ren, and Geoff already got that out of the way.  They could still go on a run and make the playoffs and even win the division, but it’s not likely.

Ren – 0 GB
Trevor – 1 GB
Rob – 2 GB
BHers – 3 GB
It’s narrow enough that it only takes 2-3 weeks to mix up the order – though I don’t think anyone overtakes Ren.  Trevor has played tough, and Rob’s team seems to be getting out of its funk.

Konner – 0 GB
Kyle – 0 GB
Tyler – 0 GB
Jordan – 1 GB
As you can see this division will probably be the closest all year.  Only about 6 points separate Kyle and Tyler, and Jordan has more points than both of them, but is behind a win.  Jordan should only be about 6 points behind Konner once the records get updated, and Konner has a 50ish point lead on Kyle.  So if Jordan can catch up in wins, it should jump him near the top of the division.

Skyler – 0 GB (North Leader)
Ren – 1 GB (South Leader)
Trevor – 2 GB
Chad – 3 GB
Konner – 3 GB (West Leader)
Rob – 3 GB
Kyle – 3 GB (and about 30 points out of the playoffs right now for the wild card spot, 50 for division spot)
Tyler – 3 GB
Jordan – 4 GB
Matt – 4 GB
Brady – 5 GB
Geoff – 5 GB

Wild Card (Division leaders are not in this list, and GB will be shown as #/# GB. The first number is based on taking the 4 seed, which is the highest a wildcard can get, even if he is higher than the other 2 division winners. The second number is based on taking the 6 seed):
Trevor (4 seed) – 0/0 GB
Chad (5 seed) – 1/0 GB
Rob (6 seed) – 1/0 GB
Kyle – 1/0 GB
Tyler – 1/0 GB
Jordan – 2/1 GB
Matt – 2/1 GB
Brady – 3/2 GB
Geoff – 3/2 GB

So as you can see, the battle for the 6 seed is still very much alive.  Chances are none of this matters in 4 to 5 weeks when we go back to division games, but it’s still interesting to see where you need to go.  Anyway, that’s all for this week.  Bad luck to Kyle next week.

Weekly Record: 2-2 (1 point away from 1-3)
Year to Date: 17-7

Monday, October 6, 2014

Week 5: The week that could have been

Oh what a week what a week.  If the Seahawks defense wasn't terrrible very bad from a fantasy perspective (the Bengals DST was terrible, just ask Brady) I could have had a 2 game lead on everyone in the league.  If Lynch and Wilson hadn't gone nuts tonight, I would have had a 3 game lead in division, which would have been a nice cushion.  But alas, I am not to run away with it in the regular season -- just like BYU.  I'm sure my time will come, but hopefully I at least get a first round bye.  Anyway, a quick recap of the games.

The game of the week featured Trevor and me -- 2 reasons why it was the game of the week, 1) I write this, so I pick, and 2) the #1 and #3 team played each other.  I won, but there was some luck involved.  I was only the number 5 scorer, but Trevor was number 11.  Much less painful scenario than Jordan (#3 scorer) who lost to Chad (#1) or Geoff (#4) who lost to Ren (#2).  Geoff and Ren had the closest game of the week, barely beating KoKo and Brady by about .36 in difference.

Geoff almost had the upset of the week, but instead that went to Rob for thrashing Tyler.  Tyler was ranked 4th, and Rob was ranked 10th.  The comeback game of the week went to Chad, who waited until the 4th quarter to take the lead against Jordan.  I said Chad waited because I like to believe we all have some sort of control over our fantasy teams and that it's not all luck.  The what the heck game went to Brady and Konner.  I get that there can be negative points from players, but a defense ending with negative 7 is just cruel.  Maybe we should reconsider defensive scoring rules in the offseason.  I mean, for a QB to get negative 7, he would have to 1 point from rushing/throwing and negative 8 from turnovers.  As much as Tony Romo probably hopes to do that (especially in the 4th quarter), I don't think even he is capable of that kind of output.  Anyway, if Brady started no DST, he would have won.  Had Brady the win locked up before starting his DST, I would have been ok with him sitting the Bengals to be safe, but because Konner had a kicker going that night, it makes sense.

**Official Ruling:  If you are beating your opponent, his 9 players have finished, you only have your DST left, and you are winning by 8 points or less, you can sit your DST and you will hear no complaints from me.  DST's can get no less than negative 8, so that's why I said 8 points or less.**

It's too late to figure out the middle of the standings after 2 because so much of it comes down to points, and it's late and I need sleep.  So a quick view to next week...and I have no idea what will be important matchups because I don't know the standings.  I will edit this tomorrow morning and give some thoughts.

Bragging time

Weekly Record: 3-1  (some serious luck in 2 leagues)
Year to Date: 15-5 (I'm waiting for a serious meltdown and regression)

Monday, September 29, 2014

Week 4: Recap and Redraft Thoughts

Maybe the reason is he has twins.  Maybe he was sad about the Utes losing to the Cougars in the 4th quarter (no, not those Cougars, but I can dream).  It could be that the 3 TD weeks of Andrew Luck got his team complacent.  Maybe this was a trap game and he was looking ahead to his game with Rob.  Or maybe, just maybe, he was getting a little cocky from being the defending champion, and being 3-0 going against 0-3 Matt.  The truth is we may never know, but for some reason, Tyler gave away a game (I believe on accident) and is no longer undefeated.  I'm pretty sure Matt graciously accepts your blunder Tyler. Now I am the only undefeated team, and we don't want that to happen.  I mean I write this weekly blog post, so you know I can mention it whenever I want.

Let this serve as a reminder...SET  YOUR LINEUPS.  No one wants to see me undefeated, and no one wants to see Matt win.  Why? Because then he won't panic and finally sell me Eddy Lacy for dirt cheap.  So thanks a lot Tyler.  Anyway...You are all grown adults -- except Konner, though the movie theaters and the Disney parks have charged him like one for years --  so you can remember to set your lineups.  If you need to get into a routine, and go through your roster one last time before you go to bed Saturday night, do it (it's one of the things I do).  If you need to set an alarm Saturday night to remind yourself to check your alarm, do it.  If you have a smartphone, download the crappy NFL Fantasy app, and turn on notifications (that's me).  You can also get email notifications so that you get reminders on your computers, as well as said smartphone.  Heck, make the league page your home page so you see the annoying little red notifications on the site, fix the problem, and then get mad because they don't go away (ya, that's me too).

Anyway, you get the point.  You are grown men,  I won't text you to update your lineup -- unless I need your opponent to lose so I can make the playoffs, then I will be spamming you all night.  Who knows, maybe there is a strategy to forgetting to remove your players in a bye week.  Geoff did it against Tyler last year.  Not that Geoff had a great year last year, but he has won it before.  Tyler also forgot to sub someone out last year (week 9) and he ended up winning the whole thing. Ren gets close every year, and he didn't sub someone out (it was his kicker) last year against Tyler --  though that may have been so he didn't have to drop anyone else.  The Tyler theme is an interesting one here.  I don't recommend the strategy, so please remember to take your bye week guys out, and put in some subs.

So on to this week.  Tyler and Matt had the close game that shouldn't have been, and Brady and Jordan also had a close game.  Had we allowed Jordan to pick up Niles Paul, Brady would have won. I'm not sure if this is Karma, or bad luck or what.  But it's interesting.  If not for Tyler's blunder, the West Division would have gone undefeated this week.  The last time that happened was week 9 last year (North Division).  Now I feel like ESPN because that stat isn't that impressive. I'm going to keep checking into it.  Please hold.  Ya, it happened week 6 that year (North Division again),so no big whoop.  So the best record to never make the playoffs is 7-6, and the worst to make it is 6-7.  It seems like most people still have a solid shot to make the playoffs.  I mean Trevor did start 6-0 and then went 1-6 the rest of the way and missed the playoffs, so you never know.

Finally, I'm curious if we redid the draft right now, and had no keepers, who would go number one? How high would Andrew Luck go? Even if Peyton Manning played this week and got his average of around 25, he would be tied with Matt Ryan in 2nd, while like would be 25 points ahead of him.  How high would injury prone Demarco Murray go? Or thought he might get suspended Bell.  There were people who thought Lynch would be done this year, and he's the 4th best back, and a game behind almost everyone else.  And Ahmad Bradshaw is currently 3rd in total points.  What about backs who fall? This was Charles first week with double digit points, same with Lacy.  Would Petersen or Rice get drafted in the single digit rounds?  Brady has 3 of the top 9 WR (not including tonight) on his team.  No way that happens again.  Maclin and Benjamin would go much higher.  Those could be some steals for keepers.  And what about old man Steve Smith Sr? Would his success raise him up, or do we all think it's a flash in the pan and he will die down?

So ya, interesting things to think about.  Maybe next week I will do a one man, 12 team, 3-5 round mock draft.  That sounds too complicated, so maybe not.  Anyway, good week everyone, better luck next week to those that lost, and I really hope Trevor's 160 point week goes back to sleep for next week. 3 players with 30+ goodness.

Weekly Record: 2-2 (I thought it was going to be worse)
Year to Date: 12-4 (Pretty sure it's my best start ever, Knock on wood)

*Edit: Throwing in something new I meant to put in last night but didn't have the time.  The reason last night was so big for Matt is that no 0-4 team has made the playoffs.  Not saying it can't happen, but history isn't on your side if you start 0-4.  History also isn't on your side when you start 6-0.*


Monday, September 22, 2014

Week 3 Notes

Another interesting week in fantasy football, another excuse for me to share my feelings, and most importantly, brag about my first 4-0 week.  There weren’t nearly as many injuries as last week which was nice, both from a fantasy angle as well as a not wanting to see players lose their livelihood angle…but mostly from the fantasy angle. 

The closest game of the week was the Brandon Marshall near goose-egg game (and by that I mean the only game within 18 points).  Brandon Marshall was the 16th highest scoring WR before today, and that’s with all other WR’s having played 3 games, while he had only played 2.  For the first 2 weeks, Marshall was the #3 WR in the leage.  So anyway, top 16 being one game behind everyone is solid.  After tonight’s performance, he moves from 16 to 14.  Big jump for him.  Unfortunately, Matt needed 3.2 points from Marshall, and he only got half of that.  This was his worst game since November 20th of 2011, when He had one catch for 5 yards.  The only person madder about this game than Matt is Rob.

Rob, who said it wasn’t tanking to trade the best WR in the game for a top TE last year, sat the same top TE for no one (I wonder if it’s taking now?) so he could get a better waiver pick.  I would like to complain more about this move, but I fear if I say too much, the fantasy god’s won’t pay him back with karma, so I won’t rant anymore.  Anyway, because Matt lost and stays defeated, he doesn’t fall behind Rob for the waiver claims.  Geoff also lost, so he stays in front of Rob as well.  And because Jordan lost and didn’t have a great day in total points, he stays below Rob too. 

Winless Kyle finally got his first victory over Konner, while Tyler, Skyler, and Ren stay undefeated.  Ren and Skyler play next week, and that’s with Peyton and Sanders on a bye.  So I’m saying there’s a chance.  So division play has ended for a while, and now we will see how each division does against the other divisions.  Let the division smack talk begin.  Also, as a reminder, standings are decided by wins, and then by total points for.  Midseason tank at your own risk.  Also, doing a free agent/waiver acquisition budget would remove midseason tanking – just a thought.

If the playoffs started today (which we all know isn’t remotely close to true, but I need to include something new this week) Ren would have the one seed and a bye, and Skyler would have passed Tyler to take the 2 seed and the bye.  Tyler would be the 3 seed and would play against 6 seed Brady (who is in on a points tiebreaker – by like 1 – over Konner) and 4 seed Chad would take on 5 seed Trevor (I could actually be wrong, I’m just doing some quick math in my head, but this will for sure be updated Tuesday morning on the main page).

Shameless self-promotion from here on out.  Good luck to everyone but Ren next week.
This week: 4-0

Year to date: 10-2…which means I am going to lose a lot of my games next week.  Dangit.

Monday, September 15, 2014

Week 2 Thoughts: The Injury Bug

There were some unfortunate injuries this week, in AJ Green, Knowshon Moreno (both in Jordan’s starting lineup), Ryan Mathews, Jamaal Charles, MJD (not a huge crisis), RG3 (also not a crisis), Doug Martin, DeSean Jackson, Vernon Davis, and Kyle’s pride (more on that later), as well as Adrian Peterson being inactive.  Vernon Davis was probably missed the most because the game he played in was the closest.  There is for sure no way of knowing if someone could have had a good week, but the other games were enough of a blowout, that I’m not sure the losers would have been helped.  Or in Trevor and Jordan’s case, they still won anyway.

Ren blew everyone out of the water…and that was with the defense scoring a negative point.  His 8 other players scored him double digits, and 5 of them scored over 20.  It’s just not fair you know?  I ended up beating Chad by less than 5 points, which was nerve racking.  I want to personally thank Torrey Smith for not doing much in the Thursday night game.  He saved my bacon.  A battle of Monday night quarterbacks happened between Tyler and Konner.  There was less than a 1 point differential going into this game, and Tyler won off of the 3 passing TD’s of Andrew Luck. 

Of other news, Kyle lost to Jordan, who had Moreno hurt (.4 points before being hurt), Green hurt (no points) and Dwayne Allen invisible (0 points).  Plus Chris Johnson only scored 3.1 points, which would have been the lowest scorer on Kyle’s team.  Basically 5 guys on Jordan’s team beat Kyle’s team by 13 points (the other 3.5 coming from Johnson and Moreno).  I can’t say I’ve seen any game quite like that before.  Had Kyle started Gates he would have won, but I can’t say I blame him for starting Witten over Gates.  I would have done the same thing, but that might need to change soon.

The 2-0 teams will be Skyler, Ren, and the defending champion who had his draft ridiculed by multiple sites, Tyler Hukill.  The season is still really early, so this doesn’t mean much, but still.  It doesn’t hurt your team to be 2-0 – except on the waiver wires.  So yes, Tyler is 2-0 with his 2nd round pick being out all year, and he didn’t have his 1st round pick this last game.  So well done Tyler.

Next week is the big rivalry week in the North division.  There is the cousin game of me and Brady, and the “We aren’t sure what their relationship really is” bowl of Geoff and Chad.  I mean Geoff did serenade Chad at his wedding luncheon (I think it was luncheon) with “Teardrops on my guitar”.  That being said – I am a little jealous of this relationship.  Anyway, moving on.  I’m not sure how much the rest of you view this as rivalry week, but I don’t really care.  I’m not in your division.  I am in the North division, and I love it.

I was going to call the North division the division of champions, but the West has also had 2 modern era championships, and with Kyle and Jordan Matt winning the 2  a pre-mission championships, they would win in a tiebreaker.  However, I say they only have 2 1.5ish championships.  Divisions weren't the same pre-mission.  If you look at the Packers history, they have a few superbowls, but a ton more championships, but those championships don’t count the same because they were before the superbowl era.  I think our league functions the same way.

Anyway, that’s it, other than I beat Chad and I love it.  He has knocked me out of the playoffs the last 2 years in the Semi’s, and so I have to get my wins against him while I can.

Weekly record: 3-1
Against Chad weekly record (we are in 2 leagues together): 1-1

Year to date: 6-2

Monday, September 8, 2014

First week of fantasy football: 2014 season

       Week 1 is in the books, and so what?  Sure it was fun to finally have some games to watch, and some opponents to beat, but week one doesn't really mean much in the long run.  Before I get there, here are some other interesting stats.  Each winner scored over 140, and only 2 losers scored under 100.  The average score was 125.  The winners average was 144 and the losers average was 105.

     Every year in the modern era, 3 teams that have lost the first week have made the playoffs, meaning 3 who win also make the playoffs.  From what I could tell there was no variation of this in any year.  It's also 12:30 at night, so I could have screwed up on that, but I'm pretty sure it's right.

     So what about week 2?  In all 4 years 12 teams have gone 2-0, but only 7 of them made the playoffs.  However, in the last 2 years, there have been 7 teams to go 2-0, and 5 of them have made the playoffs.  So it appears to be getting a little harder to recover from your mistakes.  It would appear we are getting smarter or something.

     The reverse of that is fairly true.  12 teams have started out 0-2, and 5 of them have made the playoffs.  The last 2 years, 7 teams went 0-2 and 4 of them made the playoff.  I will recant that smarter belief.  Or maybe the 2-0 teams are getting a little smarter, the 0-2 teams get good waiver picks, and the 1-1 teams are stuck in in limbo. 1-1 teams have made the playoffs 12 out of 24 times, but in the last 2 years it has only been 3 of 10 of the 1-1 teams making the playoffs.  So if you are 1-0, go for the win, if you are 0-1, tank one more week.  If you claim to be the caped crusader, go ahead and tank for fun.

     The closest games were matt and rob (27 points) and skyler and geoff (30 points) but there were no players on their benches that would have helped them win.  I imagine stats like that change next week.  Next week (assuming no ties) there is for sure 2 teams that start out 2-0 and for sure 2 that start 0-2 because skyler plays chad, and konner plays tyler.  Rob and Ren could also both win and go 2-0, but it's not a guarantee.

    As far as players this week (This does not include tonight's games), skyler was fortunate to have 2 of the top 3 (Ryan number 1 and Bell number 3) total points scorers.  Rob had number 2 (Julius thomas).  If you started a top 3 QB you won, If you started a top 4 RB you won (skyler was lucky and had number 1 and 4).  The number one wide receiver this week was an undrafted rookie for undrafted I mean by us and the NFL.  Jordan started the top scoring WR and lost. Matt had the number 4 highest scoring and started, and lost.  Brady had two top 8 WR's on his bench and lost (though he did start who should be the number 1 WR of the week in megatron).  Geoff had 2 of the top 6 TE's.  Maybe he will make a move soon to trade one of them while value is high?  Of the top 8 kickers, 2 were owned.  Just a friendly reminder to take your kickers in the last round.  Of the top 10 DSTs, 3 were owned.  Just a friendly reminder to take your defense in the 2nd to last round.

That is all see you in week 2.

Also, as a personal plug, I am in 4 leagues this year, I went 3-1 this week, meaning I'm 3-1 on the year.

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Preseason Rankings

Today was Fantasy Football Draft Day...greatest day of the year in my opinion.  Anyway, using one guys projections, I'm going to rank our teams according to what he said.  But first, I will post a link so you can explore what he thinks specifically of your team, or so you can click links to see what other analysts think.




Now for the rankings:  These are the odds to make the players. These percents will be based on the "Great" inseason management, not the "good" or "average".

Rob: 99% -- Crap, I don't like this.
Skyler: 90% -- I don't believe this, I'm not comfortable with my team
Geoff: 85% -- They have Gio as #6 RB, so this makes sense if you buy that.
Matt: 85% -- They love his QB duo
Jordan: 85% -- I thought this should be higher.  They knocked him for no backup QB, and he is a little weak at running back, but I thought he should be higher.
Ren: 75% -- Another I thought was too low.  They are trying to say he is weak at QB and that Peyton needs a backup.  Whatever.
Koko: 75% -- Like his RB's, not his WR's.
Trevor: 75% -- Apparently having only the #5 QB is too thin, and having the #7 WR is below average?
Brady:  65% -- They strongly dislike Rivers (#15 QB) and Ellington (#13 RB).
Chad: 65% -- And I quote "Let us say this as nicely as we can. This team is iffy at best. It is below average and/or too thin at all three core positions".
Kyle: 65% -- Don't like his WR, and they seem to kinda like his backs.
Tyler: 55% -- Oh how the mighty have fallen.  I will quote their opening analysis "Let us say this as nicely as we can. This team is brutal."

So this is all assuming we have great inseason management, which isn't always the case.  It depends how you finish one week and if you pick up the right guy.  Also you can click other analysts and see what changes.  Anyway, that was a fun draft.  Best of luck to me next year.

Sunday, July 6, 2014

Disneyland v. Walt Disney World: Picking my Favorite Resort

I’m breaking up my non-scheduled and irregularly-posted Harry Potter blog posts to write about something else that I’m rather passionate about: Disney Resorts.  I have been contemplating for some time which resort I like more, so I figure writing my thoughts, feelings, and opinions would help me sort it all out.  I will be evaluating the resorts on a couple of criteria, and picking a winner for each criteria.  I will then add up the total points and pick an overall winner.  Though to be fair, some criteria will be worth more points.  I’m sure this is a reasonable system, and my thoughts will never change in my life.

The first one is based on an assumption that will never come true – either everything at each resort is completely free, or I become so rich that spending money however I want at a Disney Resort doesn’t matter.  Like I said, not coming true, but I would love if it did.  If I had this option, I would pick Walt Disney World (WDW) over the Disneyland Resort (DLR) because there is so much more to do.  4 parks, 2 water parks, Disneyquest (not all that great to be honest), Downtown Disney (has more to do than DLR’s Downtown Disney), 28 hotels, 4 golf courses, 2 mini golf courses, and a whole host of things I didn’t know you could do there until I googled it (kayaking, wakeboarding, parasailing, boat rentals, etc.) would be more fun than 2 parks, 3 hotels, and Downtown Disney.  This doesn’t automatically give WDW the win for favorite resort though, because I will never have that much money/time, and even if I did, I don’t go to WDW to go kayaking.  However, WDW gets the win for this section.  WDW 1 – DLR 0

Travel Experience:  I will admit that this situation is biased to where I grew up.  Getting to DLR from St. George is a 7 hour drive.  Going to WDW is several hours of flying.  I kinda go crazy in cars.  If I’m not driving, I tend to get a little sick after a while.  Flying takes a little longer, and can be more stressful, but there is also more to do.  Also, not having to stop for bathroom breaks is a big plus when you have 3 younger brothers, and all of your bladders get full at different times.  Plus, I think flying adds to the vacation experience of it all.  I don’t fly much, so I generally equate it with something fun when I do.  WDW 2 – DLR 0

Vacation Experience:  If you are going to visit either resort, I feel like you should give a full day to each park, even if the park doesn’t deserve it (I’m looking at you Epcot).  So having 4 days for WDW and only 2 for DLR tends to make WDW better.  You are able to get away for longer, and take advantage of the vacation.  WDW 3 – DLR 0

Proximity vs Inclusiveness:  I am combining these because they feel like opposites to me.  Everything at DLR is right next to each other.  It’s easy to park hop, or get to Downtown Disneyland, or even leave the property if you want.  However, you don’t always feel like you are in your own little space.  California is very prevalent and noticeable.  For WDW, I have some info to share with you – according to WDW is the same size as San Francisco.  So ya, it’s inclusive.  It’s just hard to navigate everything on your own.  Each has its perks and downfalls – instead of giving each park a point and having this section mean nothing, I will give WDW a half-point because I like their option slightly more.  I’m just not that big a fan of park hopping.  WDW 3.5 – DLR 0

On a budget: This will depend on where you live.  Since I am writing, it’s based on Utah.  If any of you aren’t from Utah – deal with it.  Because of the closeness to Utah, DLR basically wins.  It’s cheaper to travel there by car, but flying isn’t all that bad.  Because of the 3 close-ish airports, you get more options on flights, which makes them cheaper.  So if you live in northern Utah, I would look into flying.  Also, because the rest of California is right there, you can find some alright hotels within walking distance.  Unless you are staying onsite at WDW you will need to rent a car, call a cab, or stay at a hotel with shuttle service – after paying to fly across the country.  WDW 3.5 – DLR 1

The 1-park test:  In my situation (living in Utah) you wouldn’t fly to Florida to only visit one park and then fly home.  It’s slightly more reasonable for DLR, but still doesn’t make a lot of sense.  So we will remove budget/travel constraints for this scenario, which is you can only go to one park for one day.  For me, the answer is the Disneyland (DL) park. Not only is it bigger than Magic Kingdom (MK) by 53 acres, but there is more to do at that park than any other park.  Most people who haven’t been to WDW don’t realize just how separated everything is, or what isn’t included.  For example rides at DL not found in MK (but may be found in other WDW parks) include the Matterhorn, Indiana Jones, and Star Tours.  The list may not be long, but I love those rides dangit – I don’t want to have to park hop to 2 other parks to get their equivalents in (in all fairness, expedition Everest and Matterhorn aren’t the same, but I put them as equivalent as far as theming/idea).  And DLR would still win if you did a 2 parks to 2 parks test (I would include MK and Disney’s Hollywood Studios from WDW). I feel so strongly about this section, that this is worth 1.5 points.  WDW 3.5 – DLR 2.5

New Rides/Expansion:  The newest ride/section at DLR is Carsland, and WDW got the new Fantasyland.  Unfortunately, I didn’t get to ride the 7 dwarfs mine train ride, but I think Radiator Springs Racers would have won.  WDW has more room for expansion though, and I think Avatar-land will be pretty awesome once it’s finished.  Short term, DLR gets the win, though WDW has a much easier time expanding and getting new rides.  This is a half point victory.  WDW 3.5 – DLR 3.0

Weather/Air:  WDW is more humid, DLR air can be dirtier (again with the rest of California being right on top of you thing).  WDW is hotter.  Winner DLR, but this isn’t major, so .5 point victory here. WDW 3.5 – DLR 3.5

Nostalgia:  I could go on for a long time here and break this down.  To save you some time I will say that DLR wins.  There is childhood nostalgia, family nostalgia, and gradnight nostalgia going on here.  WDW has no childhood nostalgia, and less family nostalgia than DLR.  It does have “I worked/lived there” nostalgia (not that strong), and Honeymoon nostalgia.  So DLR basically wins 3-1 on the nostalgia count.  Disney parks are better with more people, and with kids, and I have more experience with bigger groups at DLR, as well as with kids (or while being a kid) as well.  DLR 4.5 – WDW 3.5

Disneyland Resort gets the win.  Thanks for reading – or more like thanks for clicking.  Eventually I will blog about the Harry Potter movies, but we’ll see if that ever happens before this month is over.

Thursday, June 19, 2014

My Account of Reading Harry Potter for the First Time

This post contains some Harry Potter spoilers.  If you have yet to read the books, or seen the movies, you have been warned.  I will also expect an apology, and I question our friendship.

I first learned of Harry Potter in 5th grade.  I’m assuming it was in the second half of the year, but no promises – actually, it might have been the first half, but not that important.  Moving on.  It was great class because there was already a big presence of football and star wars in the classroom, so I was in my element – Skyler nerdvana.  So anyways, the teacher started reading it, and I fell in love with it.  I didn’t like the idea of waiting to hear the end of it, so I went out and got the book – and by that I mean my parents bought it for me.  I finished it in time for a class book report that we had to do, but the teacher asked me not to spoil the ending, so I couldn’t say too much about it in the report.  But by the time it was all done, I was hooked on the books, and wanted more.

If I remember correctly, I got the 2nd book the same way I got the 1st, through my parents.  As a side note, I think I got it from Christensen’s (same with book 3 and 4).  I don’t really remember my experience with books 2 or 3 because they weren’t events.  I got the books and read them as soon as I could.  I don’t remember much about two, other than I liked it more than 1, and the only thing I remember about 3 is how I took the book with me everywhere.  I recall reading it at my brother’s city league basketball grade out in the hallway when someone spoiled a small part of the book.  I won’t name names because I’m facebook friends with the person. I doubt they would read this, or remember the event, but still, no need to be mean.

I don’t remember the specifics around book 4, other than it took me 2 days to read it and at this point I was a known Harry Potter nerd.  I got asked at church how many days it took for me to read the book, and when I said 2, the person who asked me laughed and said he knew someone who was so proud he read it in 3 days, but figured I had read it in a shorter time, so decided to ask me while at church.  Goblet of Fire was also when I started to really think about the series and notice little things mentioned in the text.  I’m not sure why, but I’m sure some of it was due to the fact that I couldn’t keep reading to my heart’s content but that I had to wait. 

One of the things I noticed that I still have no answer for to this day is at the end of Goblet of Fire (when I first wrote this post [it took a long time] I didn't have an answer, but now I think I do), Harry is talking to Dumbledore and Harry mentions that Voldemort is back, and there is a line about something in Dumbledore’s eye, be it a gleam or fire or something of that nature.  I don’t want to look it up.  The point being, at this time, I started guessing what it could mean, or what could happen next.  Let’s just say my guess was wrong, and I have some new theories, but either way, I was hooked and waiting for the next book release.

            The movies were released, which helped ease my pain and waiting, but still, I needed more books.  During the summer of 2003 – the year Order of the Phoenix was released – I had youth conference up at SUU cabin.  It turns out the release date of book 5 was one of the last days of youth conference.  This made me none too happy, though youth conference wasn’t horrible.  I do remember not feeling super great at the end of the day, and I made sure to play it up so I could go home a day early and read the new book. 

Fortunately my mother knew of my situation, and I was able to get the book the next morning.  I still remember how I would read book 5 and 6 (they each took 2 days as well).  Sometimes it was in the chair in my parents’ living room.  Other times it was laying on the couch, and rotating which side I was laying on, while also rotating the book with me.  I do enjoy the book, but I also have some hateful feelings towards certain parts of the book. Those parts would be Umbridge, Sirius being killed off, Umbridge, the moodiness and angst of Harry, and of course Umbridge.  Other than that, I love this book too.  But I really hate Umbridge.  I just wanted to make that clear.

So there was more waiting for book 6, and more speculation and guessing on my part – again, all of it wrong.  The circumstances to the acquisition of book 6 were very similar to book 5, except instead of youth conference, I was at Helaman’s Camp.  I’m not sure why the last two books had conflicting schedules with my church stuff, but I wasn’t happy about it.  This time I couldn’t leave early though.  I did encourage my dad to drive really fast though on the way home.  I got home, showered (3 days of no showering and manual labor…Even I thought I should shower before reading Harry Potter), and then went to buy the book.  That might have been the first Harry Potter I bought with my own money.

So I read and read and read and read (it was a Saturday) and I surprisingly took a break for a birthday party.  I’m not sure why I did, but I did.  I won’t say my mom forced me to go, but she strongly encouraged me to get out of the house.  The fact that I went is still kind of surprising, I mean I didn’t even have a romantic interest in anyone who would be there, so I’m still shocked.  All I remember is that I went to the party for a little bit, and then came home and kept reading until sometime late. 

I had church the next day, and a girl in the ward was bragging how she was already done and some other junk.  I was mad because I would have been done too had I had all day to read it, but that didn’t seem to matter.  Also, I don’t know why I thought that was such a big deal, but it was (and it was for book 7 too).  She also offered to spoil who died, but I wasn’t having any of that.  Anyway, I got home from church and read and read and read.  Finally I got to the part where Dumbledore died.  I put the book down and walked away.  I think for a good half hour, I wouldn’t pick the book back up because of that.  I don’t know why I took it so personally, but I just sat and thought about it in a mad/bitter state.  I never liked Snape, and I thought that he had betrayed Dumbledore.  After reading the 7th book, I still don’t like Snape, but at least I understood the motives.  Anyway, I eventually finished the book, but it emotionally took a lot out of me.

The waiting game began again.  I did some small guessing, one of which I finally got right.  I figured out who R.A.B. was pretty quickly (I don’t remember if it was because I had previously reread the series or what, but I believe I guessed it while still reading the book), but couldn’t figure out why he took the Horcrux, or why Dumbledore had to die.

            So the final wait was on.  Fortunately, I had my junior and senior year to distract me.  I made sure to keep up on the rumors using J.K. Rowling’s website (back when it looked cooler than it does now).  I don’t think any of the spoilers were right, but I’m sure someone out there knows if any were right.

            The day finally came for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows to come out.  I was ready to go.  I had the whole day free, I had several Amp energy drinks in the fridge, and I was ready to campout to get the book.  I was hanging out with friends that evening, counting down to midnight.  At some point I went and got snacks at Smith’s, and noticed some people there also waiting in line for the new book.  So I went back to the store on Main Street to keep waiting with my friends.  As a funny side note, it was the first time I remember playing phase 10, and I was horrible at it.  My wife would probably argue I’m not much better now, but that’s not the point.

            Midnight came and I eventually got my book while in line.  Turns out because I didn’t reserve the book by paying the extra $5+ a month in advance.  I was livid.  I had waited all day for this moment and it was taken away from me.  Somewhat fortunately, a friend of mine was in the same predicament.  So we hopped in my car and drove over to Smith’s.  There were plenty of books to go around, and few people to actually grab them.  There was enough people that there was a line for checkout, so we started reading in line.  We didn’t get too far before we had to go.  I drove him home and then raced home myself so I could keep reading.

            I grabbed the energy drinks from the fridge and started reading.  It was awesome.  I was texting a few people that I knew were reading it as well.  They had a head start on me, so I didn’t feel too bad about being behind.  Eventually everyone said they were going to bed and would pick it back up in the morning.  I kept going and going and going.  I think I only stopped for a few bathroom breaks (I did have a few energy drinks) and I did take a whole 15 minutes to eat breakfast. 

I eventually finished before noon.  It was (sadly) one of my proudest moments (I take that back I’m still proud of it) up to that point.  I’m no speed reader, so for me to get through that fast, and be that dedicated.  Anyway, I’ll quit patting myself on the back – in a minute.  I had texted the few friends from the night before and told them I had finished, and that they were in for a treat.  I don’t think it was more than 5 people I had texted.  Yet, somehow some friends had heard that I had finished it and told me that they were impressed.  My nerdy proudness knows no bounds.  Now I’m done with the self-promotion.

At this point, my good buddy Randon was off serving his mission, and he would write on occasion.  He was better at guessing what was going to happen than I was.  I didn’t want to spoil it for him, so I never would confirm nor deny anything.  I never did ask him when he eventually read it.  Maybe I should do that.  Randon, if for some reason you read this blog, and you got this far, you should let me know.

That was that.  It was a rewarding experience to finish, but it was also sad.  I had grown up with Harry, and now it was over.  I think that might be part of the reason I love the books so much – I feel like a kid again when I read them, and that I’m able to go back and visit my friend.  It was the first book series that I started and read in order.  After I started reading Harry Potter, I decided reading other series in order would be important, but Harry Potter started it off for me.

Well enough of that emotional mess.  I’m going to go back to watching Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, and then I may find some youtube clips of Diagon Alley.  I may write more at some point – but it could take me months to get there (this one took much longer than I meant it to).  If you stuck through this post, I hope it was worth it.  If you didn’t, I don’t blame you.

Friday, April 11, 2014

Some Harry Potter Thoughts: 1 of a Lot

            So I recently finished reading the Harry Potter book series, which is my favorite book series of all time.  I’ve been contemplating writing about Harry Potter for the last little bit, but I’m not sure what all I could write about.  I could write about my original experience reading the books, or why I love them so much, or all of the questions I would ask J.K. Rowling, or the movies, or any combination of the above.  This could turn into the longest post of my life, or several posts.  I think I will bore you with several posts instead.
            So I think I will begin with why I love them so much, because the original experience requires more research.  I will begin with a small overlap on my original experience though.  I’m actually surprised I ever liked Harry Potter.  We had it read to us in 5th grade.  Normally I don’t like being assigned reading (even to this day), so it either means the book is that awesome, or the fact that my teacher read it to us helped me not care, or both (but definitely that the book is awesome).  Either way, a very big thank you to Mr. Dean for getting me hooked.
            Most people know I’m a big Star Wars fan, and Harry Potter seemed to fit in just fine.  Fantasy and Sci-Fi are similar enough in my mind.  So that was my first reason for getting into it.  Another reason I liked it was that when I got into the series, I was around the same age as Harry (and roughly grew up with Harry, but more of that will be mentioned with my original experience), which helped me feel a connection to him…and having glasses helped too.  It seems somewhat ridiculous, but I didn’t like having glasses, so Harry having glasses made me feel better.
            While we are on connections, I never really identified specifically with one character, but I always felt like I had something in common with several of them.  I already mentioned the connections with Harry, the connection I had with Ron was the red hair, and Hermione was a bit of a know-it-all/bookworm/nerd – and I had more of those tendencies in my youth (I still do now, but not nearly as bad).
            The good vs. evil aspect is always something I’ve liked in my stories.  Maybe it’s too much of a kid mentality, but I always preferred good vs evil over the troubled hero, or the gray moral areas.  That’s changed some, but I’m still that way in general.  One thing that hasn’t changed is my overactive imagination.  The book was very descriptive in general, so entering that new world was all sorts of fun.  I’m sad to say I still often day-dream and get caught up in other thoughts, but it happens.
            Another them from the booked that I really liked was family and loyalty.  Granted, Harry didn’t have his family, but it was an important theme.  Seeing as how Harry didn’t have his family, his friends became his family, and he showed them a lot of loyalty.  I don’t mean to toot my own horn, but I am quite the loyal friend.  Maybe a little too loyal sometimes, but that’s not the point right now.
            I don’t really want to get into specifics of each book, but each book had its adventures, sports, hijinks, commodity, drama, and some romance (in the later books).  Also, being kids/youth books, they are pretty easy to read.  I am a big fan of Netflix because I can binge watch.  Well with Harry Potter I could binge read.  I like to finish things that I’ve started, such as TV shows, movie series, or books.  I like to know things as soon as I can.  I hate waiting, and so I would often do nothing but read Harry Potter to find out what was going to happen – there aren’t many better days than that in my opinion.

            So that’s it for now, I will write more later on – most likely next week since I have a couple of paper’s do this next week.  I know you’re all excited to read it, so I will try as much as I can to get to the next blog, which will be my original experience with the books.