Week 12 part 2: Playoff Scenarios

To see the first post of the week, click here.  Now that things are final, here are some awards for this last week.

Highest Scorer of the Week: This one goes to Tyler.  I'm glad he got this because he deserved something good to happen to him this week.  I mean he had a rough week where he had to deal with BYU leading Utah for a whole half.  What a rough life.

Low Scorer of the Week: TJ gets this award on the week he could least afford it.  Sorry for your loss TJ, best of luck in the consolation bracket.

Luckiest Team of the Week:  The University of Utah.  The winner this week is Jordan for being the 10th highest scorer, but playing the 11th highest scorer.

Unluckiest Team of the Week: Matt is the winner this week, but he doesn't have the strongest case.  I suppose he is unlucky to lose by 6, but he mostly gets this award because he finished in 6th and still lost.

Here are the matchups, and some of their playoff implications.

Skyler vs Brady: This matchup is for the #1 seed.  Loser gets the #4 seed.  There are a couple of primetime players for Skyler, none for Brady (he is on the defense about a DST) so this will be a match that requires some waiting.

Tommy vs Koko:  As of this moment, Tommy is in the playoffs, and Konner is simply hoping to make it in.  They are both fighting for the 6th spot.  They both can't make it.  It should be a fun matchup.  They both have a player on the Steelers (Sunday night game) so it will go into Sunday Night for this game to be decided.

Trevor vs Matt:  Both are tied at 5-7, looking up at Ren for the division lead.  The winner could miss on the division if Ren wins, but they could still get the wildcard.  More on that later.  Trevor has someone on Sunday night while Matt has someone on Monday night.  This will be another wait it out game.

Ren vs Rob:  Ren has the inside track on winning his division and the 3 seed since he has a 1 game lead over both of them.  However, he is in the middle of them on points, so if he loses, he is in trouble, though he could still get a wildcard spot.  Rob has a lot of mid-Sunday games, as well as a game on Sunday night and Monday night.  Ren will be sweating this one out, but if he wins, he is golden.

Kyle vs TJ: With the loss this week, Kyle has moved out of the playoffs and into the 7th seed.  A win won't guarantee Kyle a win (if Tommy also won it would keep him ahead of Kyle), but if he doesn't win, he will be eliminated.  Kyle has two guys who are playing in primetime, while TJ has a DST playing on Sunday night, so this one will also go down to the wire as well.

Tyler vs Jordan:  This matchup is for the #2 seed.  Loser gets the #5 seed.  Tyler for sure has one late primetime player (possibly more based on his bench players).  Jordan has at least two late primetime players (possibly more based on his bench players).  It seems like every game is going late this week, and this one is no exception.

Now a player by player breakdown for how people can make or miss the playoffs.  I don't always include something like "maintain tiebreaker" or "lose tiebreaker", but those things matter for a decent amount of scenarios.

Skyler:

• #1 seed: 
• Win
• #4 seed: 
• Lose

Brady:

• #1 seed: 
• Win
• #4 seed: 
• Lose

Tyler:

• #2 seed: 
• Win
• #5 seed: 
• Lose
• #6 seed or out of the playoffs: 
• Lose AND Tommy win and Kyle win AND then lose on tiebreaker.  There is less than 1% chance of happening.

Jordan:

• #2 seed: 
• Win
• #5 seed: 
• Lose
• #6 seed or out of the playoffs: 
• Lose AND Tommy win AND Kyle win AND then lose on tiebreaker.  There is less than 1% chance of happening.

Ren:

• #3 seed: 
• Win OR
• Lose AND outscore the winner of Trevor or Matt by enough to win on Tie Breaker
• #6 seed:
• Lose AND Tommy lose AND Kyle lose.
• Out: 
• Lose AND Tommy OR Kyle win.

Tommy:

• #5 seed:
• Win AND outscore loser of Tyler/Jordan by enough to pass on tiebreaker
• #6 seed:
• Win AND maintain tiebreaker of points OR
• Lose AND Kyle lose AND score enough points to Ren and winner of Matt/Trevor
• Out:
• Lose AND lose out on tiebreaker

Kyle:

•  #6 seed:
• Win AND Tommy win AND score enough to pass Tommy on tiebreaker OR
• Win AND Tommy lose OR
• Lose AND maintain or gain tiebreaker over other 6-7 teams
• Out:
• Lose AND Tommy win OR
• Lose AND Tommy lose AND tiebreaker does not go his way

Matt:

• #3 seed: 
• Win AND Ren loss, and maintain tiebreaker
• #6 seed:
• Win AND Ren win AND Tommy lose AND Kyle lose AND tiebreaker doesn't change
• Out:
• Lose OR
• Win AND lose out on tiebreaker (not likely given his lead)

Trevor:

• #3 seed:
• Win AND Ren lose AND maintain tiebreaker
• #6 seed:
• Win AND Ren win AND Tommy lose AND Kyle lose AND maintain tiebreaker
• Out:
• Lose

Konner:

• #6 seed:
• Win AND gain tiebreaker over winner of Trevor/Matt AND Tommy lose and Kyle lose
• Out: 
• Win AND Kyle win OR not have tiebreaker over Trevor/Matt winner OR
• Lose

Rob:

• Out:
• All - but can still mess with people

TJ:

• Out:
• All - but can still mess with people

Please text me if you have any questions, or if you think of a scenario that is not found here.  Best of luck to everyone not named Brady during our rivalry week.

Week 12: Fantasy Football is Much Less Depressing Than Being a BYU Fan

Another week, another title that has nothing to do with the majority of my post.  I just want to vent how much college football hurts my heart compared to fantasy football -- and this is after losing to Tommy (a Ute fan) this week.

Skyler vs Tommy:  This loss hurts for 3 reasons: 1) Skyler lost, 2) Skyler lost because the Titans didn't do enough to keep the Texans from scoring points (sure this is unrealistic to expect your favorite team to keep a fantasy defense to 0 points or less, but still) 3) Tommy is a Ute fan.  This loss puts Skyler back into 2nd place behind Brady (on points).  The win puts Tommy into 6th place with Kyle moving to 7th (behind on points).

Brady vs Konner: Brady wins and moves back into first place.  The loss drops Konner to 10th, but he is still in playoff contention, but it is a steep hill to climb.

Matt vs Ren:  This is the only game that will still be decided on Monday night.  Matt needs DeAndre Hopkins to score 18.7 to beat Ren, which is entirely possible.  In fact, half of his games have gone over 18.7 -- which means that half have also gone under.  The winner will take the lead for the division title (aka 3rd seed), and for 5th place overall, the loser will be at 5-7 with a few others, and each tiebreaker is different, so I won't' get into that right now.  I previously stated in WhatsApp that the South winner still had a chance at the 2 seed, but that is impossible.  I didn't realize that Tyler and Jordan play each other next week, meaning one of them is guaranteed to get to 8 wins (they will be at 7 wins after this week), which the South champion cannot match.  Currently, Ren is still winning, which gives Trevor a shot to win the division next week.  If Matt wins, Trevor's playoff hopes are essentially gone (I suppose outscoring someone by 60 in one week is possible, but it's not something you want to count on).

Trevor vs Rob:  Trevor went and just destroyed this week in order to keep his playoff hopes alive.  If he scores 180+ again, he could just sneak in, which would be a great story.

TJ vs Tyler:  In a week where TJ needed a lot of help to stay alive, his team didn't show up.  Tyler gets the easy win, and holds onto his division lead.

Kyle vs Jordan:  Kyle loses this one because Dion Lewis isn't capable of scoring 40 points for fantasy purposes -- and as a Titans fan I would love it if he could.  The loss puts Kyle out of the playoffs (tied with Konner on record, but behind on 65 points), and the win means Jordan is tied for the division lead with Tyler, but is behind on points.

Each game next week will have playoff implications -- but I'll go more in depth on that later in another post.  It will probably be published after the Monday Night Football game is over.

Week 11: The First Cannon Fire of the Season

In Hunger Games fashion, let us all pay tribute to Rob, the first of 11 fallen tributes.  With a loss tonight, Rob can max out at 5 wins for the year.  There are currently five people with 6+ wins that Rob can't catch, and the winner of the Ren and Matt matchup next week will also get to 6 wins, so that would fill the 6th slot, meaning Rob cannot get to the 6th slot (or the division champion).  Best of luck in the consolation bracket Rob.  This also means we will have a new champion this year, and that Rob won't be going back to back.

Several games were close at the beginning of Monday night, but they didn't end up that way.  The Monday Night Football game was a shootout that didn't favor everyone equally, unfortunately.  And in other news, for anyone who is reading this write up that isn't in the league, there was a blockbuster trade of Zeke/Hopkins for Gurley/Keenan Allen.  But more on that later.

Skyler vs Geoff/Konner:  As the matchup mentions, Konner has been added in as a temporary co-owner for the season as Geoff has run into lineup issues the last 2 weeks, and with it being the playoffs soon, and with so many teams being in contention, it didn't seem fair to let Geoff not set an actual lineup.  This match was never close though.  Skyler put up a huge total and ran away with this early, so it didn't matter that Gurley had his lowest point total of the season, because several others had their best games of the year.  Skyler has taken over first place, while Geoff/Konner are in 7th, one game out of 6th, but if they could tie with Kyle on record, they currently hold the points tiebreaker.

Brady vs Tommy: This was a close game going into Sunday night, but then Diggs gave Tommy a nice lead, and Hunt kept him there, even though Brady tried to fight back with Cooks on Monday night.  The lack of Patriots players and lack of George Kittle, combined with Fitztragic getting pulled kept Brady from reaching his full potential this week.  The loss puts Brady into 2nd overall, behind 1 game on Skyler, but ahead of him by 15 points on the tiebreaker, but it puts him into the 4th seed for the playoffs.  Their week 13 matchup will be fun with a lot on the line.  With the win, Tommy gets to 5 wins and stays in striking distance of the 6th seed.  He is a game behind Kyle, but ahead of Kyle by 6 points.  The issue facing Tommy is that there are 3 other teams tied with him at 5-6, and he is the lowest of the 4 on points.  He is still very much in the playoff hunt though.

Rob vs Matt:  As was mentioned in the introduction, Rob lost and is out of the playoffs.  The combination of Carson Wentz and his defense scoring 1.84 points was a big factor in that.  The other factor was the trade that was mentioned above.  Matt's new players scored him 47.7 points, and his old players would have scored him 36.4, which is a difference of 11.3 points.  Rob lost by 10.28.  So the Zeke trade worked out for Matt this week, and it will definitely work out next week since Gurley will be on a bye and Zeke won't be, and Matt needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt.  With the loss, Rob is eliminated, and Matt moves back into first place in his division.  Matt has the benefit of being the highest scorer of the 5-6 pack, so even if Ren passes him for the division, Matt is still in contention for the wild card.

Trevor vs Ren: Trevor keeps his playoff hopes alive by beating Ren in convincing fashion.  I can't say enough good things about Saquon -- potentially dragging Trevor to the playoffs might be more impressive than dragging the Giants to a few wins.  Ren stays tied for the division lead but is back on points.  He is also part of the 5-6 group that is battling for the last playoff spot, but he is 3rd (of 4) on points.  His easiest path is the division title, but he can still get there through the wild card if everything bounces right.  Trevor needs to win out to have a shot at the playoffs. 

Jordan vs TJ:  This game started close with Jordan needing 11 points from Hill on MNF for the win.  It was definitely the likely outcome, but there was always a shot TJ could hold on for the win.  43.5 points later, and Hill secured the victory for Jordan.  This win puts Jordan ahead of Kyle for 5th place (ahead by 104 points), but behind Tyler (behind by 7) for 2nd/a first-round bye.  Last week I gave Jordan crap about not being afraid of his team because I didn't think he would get above the 6th seed, but now he is battling for the 2nd seed in the playoffs, which would come with a first-round bye.  TJ can still make the playoffs if he wins out, if Jordan wins out, and if the right combinations of wins and losses happen to the teams at 5-6 and 6-5.  TJ can max out at 6 wins, so he needs to keep as few teams at 6 or below as possible, and then hope he can beat them on tie-breakers.  It's a tall order, but it could still happen.  To go with the Hunger games analogy from before, TJ is bleeding out, and he desperately needs an ally and some medication, but the cannon is loaded and ready to be fired at any time.

Kyle vs Tyler:  The game of the week was decided by 1.3 points, with game flow keeping Kyle from getting a chance at a victory at the end of MNF.  Both guys were sweating it out and hating their lives that whole game.  The win puts Tyler in 3rd on record, but 2nd in the playoffs.  Kyle drops from the 2nd seed/bye to  6th place, but he leads that last wildcard spot by a game -- which is the silver lining for now.

Highest Scorer of the Week:  This award goes to Skyler this week thanks to some fluky performances from Mike Evans (recovering a Jameis Winston fumble in the end zone) and Jordan Reed (2nd touchdown of the year, 1st one since week one).

Lowest Scorer of the Week: Ren "wins" this award after 2 points from Dalvin Cook and 1.8 from MVS, though the rest of the team had a hand in letting him down as well.

Luckiest Team of the Week:  After complaining about how Skyler gets lucky a lot, Tyler comes in with one of the luckier games of the year.  He wins by 1.3, though it could have 0.3 had the kicker not missed a PAT, and he was the 5th worst scorer of the week, meaning there were only 4 people who could have beat this week, and he played one of them.

Unluckiest Team of the Week:  Rob was the 4th highest scorer of the week but ended up playing the 3rd highest scorer, and he is eliminated from the playoffs because of it.  Rob is currently in last place, but is the 6th highest scorer of the season, which goes to show just how unlucky he has been this year.

Now for a quick summary of the standings, and how next weeks games will affect them.

Skyler is in 1st overall, and by hitting 9 wins, he has guaranteed a spot no worse than the 4 seed in the playoffs.  If Skyler wins next week, and that is combined with a Brady loss, he will finish with the 1 seed and the bye.

Brady is in 2nd overall, and it is near impossible for him to move lower than the 4 seed.  He would have to lose out, and then Kyle and Tyler would have to win out, and then Tyler would have to outscore him by 120 over two weeks to pass him, and Kyle would have to outscore him by 230 over two weeks to pass him.  So like I said, Brady will finish no worse than the 4 seed, and is still in contention for the 1st seed.  If Brady loses next week, and Skyler wins, Brady will be eliminated from the bye week/1 seed.

Tyler is in 3rd overall, and has the 2 seed because he is winning his division at the moment. However, his lead over Jordan is only by 7 points, so he could easily lose this lead.  Unfortunately for him, Kyle and Jordan play each other next week, so one of them will get to 7 wins.  So if Tyler loses to TJ, Kyle beats Jordan,  Jordan outscores Tyler by 7, Tyler would drop to 6th place and would have to worry about the 5-6 group getting wins.  Tyler's range of outcomes is anywhere from a bye week to missing the playoffs.

Jordan is in 4th overall, but currently has the 5 seed.  He is very close to passing Tyler though for the division.  Anything I said in Tyler's section also applies to Jordan (range of outcomes and how to get there), so just re-read that.

Kyle is in 5th overall, but currently has the 6 seed.  He is a ways back on tie-breaker with Tyler and Jordan, but he could still win his division. Anything I said in Tyler's section also applies to Kyle (range of outcomes and how to get there), so just re-read that.

Matt is in 6th overall, but currently has the 3 seed (stupid south division).  He leads the tiebreaker over Ren for his division by 120 points, and he leads the 5-6 group on points as well.  So Matt has a variety of ways he can make or miss the playoffs.  He can finish with the 3 seed, the 6 seed, or out of the playoffs.

Ren is in 8th overall, and I am putting him here because his fate is so closely tied with Matt.  He can still win his division, and he could potentially make it as the 6th seed, but since he is 3rd out of 4th in the 5-6 group, so his best bet would be the 3 seed.  He is 20 points ahead of Kyle, but is a game behind for the 6th seed.  He can still get the 3 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs

Geoff/Konner is in 7th overall, as they are a game behind Kyle for the 6 seed, but they are ahead of Kyle by 30 points.  They can finish at the 5 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs.

Tommy is in 9th overall, and a game behind Kyle, but is 6 points ahead of Kyle.  He can finish at the 5 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs.

TJ is in 10th overall at 4-7.  He needs a miracle to make the playoffs.  He needs a scenario where a lot of people finish 6-7, and TJ could get in on the tiebreaker.  He can finish at the 5 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs.  A loss means he is out of the playoffs.

Trevor is in 11th overall at 4-7.  He needs a miracle to make the playoffs.  He could still win his division, or possibly even still make the playoffs as a wild card.  The division champion scenarios is where he wins out, and then he would prefer Ren beat Matt in week 12, and then Rob beat Ren in week 13 because he is behind Matt in the tiebreaker by 70 points, but he is ahead of ren by 25 points.  In order to make the wild card, he needs a scenario where a lot of people finish 6-7, and Trevor could get in on the tiebreaker (or as I call it, the TJ scenario).  He can finish at the 3 seed, 5 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs. A loss means he is out of the playoffs, and a Matt win would make it really hard to make the playoffs.

Rob is in 12th overall, and cannot make the playoffs.  Sorry Rob.

I was messing with my potential records page (it's super sophisticated), and I discovered a scenario where someone misses the playoffs even though they get to 7 wins.  I was looking into it to see if getting to 7 wins next week guaranteed anyone a playoff spot.  It doesn't due to the fact that the South winner makes the playoffs, so someone from the South could get in at 6-7 and someone who is 7-6 would miss the wild card.  So the point is, getting to 7 isn't a guarantee, though it is really likely to get you into the playoffs.  So whoever wins between Kyle and Jordan will be in a really good spot. Also, because Matt and Ren both have 5 wins and play each other this week, the South winner will for sure hit 6 wins, so that's nice.  6-7 looks better than 5-8.

There are so many scenarios that will make the league entertaining that it will take too long to go through everything.  I want to see as many people competing for the playoffs on the last week, but odds are you are only worried about making the playoffs, and you don't care what anyone else does as long as it doesn't hurt you.  I will see if I can write something up mid-week, but it isn't likely with Thanksgiving being so soon.

Looking at specific matchups -- Kyle vs Jordan might be the game of the week since the winner of that game will have a good shot at a bye week, and Ren vs Matt is another one that is huge because the winner will have a good shot at winning the division and getting the 3 seed.  All the other matchups have playoff implications, but those two matchups are the marquee ones in my mind.

There will be 3 games on Thursday for Thanksgiving (Bears/Lions, Redskins/Cowboys, and Falcons/Saints), which will make for some prime time viewing/matchups, and then Sunday Night Football is Vikings/Packers and Monday Night Football is Texans/Titans (not a great fantasy game), and the Chiefs and Rams will be on bye.  That means we should all see some quality games and hopefully, some players will step up, but we will also be missing some great players due to the last bye week this season.

Thanks for sticking with me through this whole thing, and good luck to everyone (except Tommy) next week. 

Week 10: More Than Meets the Eye

First things first, I will confirm that for whatever reason, it seemed like a good idea to get this weeks title from Transformers.  I have no idea why I would do it, but I did.  There won't be a Transformers theme for the rest of the post or anything like that.  Anyway...

Skyler vs TJ: After the trade and for most of the morning and early afternoon, TJ looked like he would win, but then Ezekiel Elliot happened.  Before Sunday Zeke has had one game over 30 all year (he got 36 this week - his high score for the season), and all of his other games were under 20.  He's had a weird year but steps up big time on Sunday night football.  The unexpected loss puts TJ in a little bit of a playoff hole.  He can still overcome it, given that he still plays Jordan head to head and that Geoff isn't likely to win out -- TJ's margin of error is just getting smaller.

Jordan vs Geoff:  In one of the more nerve-wracking wins, Jordan needed 6 points from his kicker on Monday night (who is on the terrible 49ers) to get the win over Geoff.  Jordan got it pretty easily after his kicker got him a 50 yard field goal on the first drive. The win for Jordan means he pulls even with Geoff on wins and holds a decent margin (40) on points scored to pull ahead in the playoff standings.

Matt vs Tommy:  I was selfishly watching Aaron Rodgers and cheering for more TD's when I saw a message from Matt calling Tommy a dog.  Turns out those last 3 minutes between them were pretty intense.  It was something like a .06 point lead for Tommy, but the Rams had just gotten the ball back and were trying to run out the clock, and Seattle had all three timeouts, so the Rams couldn't take a knee and be done with it.  Matt had Todd Gurley and was hopeful to eke out the win through a few rushing yards, maybe a first down, to ice the game.  Fortunately for Tommy, the Seahawks D held tough, but only after Gurley had scored enough points to give Matt the lead again.  Fortunately for Tommy, the Seahawks were down 7 points, and he had their top two WR's.  He only needed one catch for about 5 yards to win (by like .2), but he ended up getting the win by 3 points for good measure.  The loss puts Matt into panic mode, where he is looking to possibly sell Gurley.

Rob vs Brady: Rob had a pretty terrible weekend from most of his team.  6 of his players got him a combined 51.9 points.  Fortunately for him, Wentz, M. Gordon, and A. Jones got him a combined 84.9, which was enough to sneak out the win over Brady and a last-ditch effort from George Kittle on Monday night.  Brady was done in by a lot of meh outings from his own players, even though Julio got another touchdown.  Fitzpatrick scored his lowest total of the year (in a game where he wasn't pulled for Jameis anyway), and James White also had his worst game of the year.  Even after the loss, Brady is still in first due to his large lead over Skyler in points scored (70).  Rob stays put in the overall standings, and stays at 3rd in his division, but he does catch up in the win column on Matt since he lost this week, though Ren's win doesn't help his cause. He is still 2 games out from the division lead -- he has the points tiebreaker over Ren, but not over Matt.  That should be a fun division race.

Ren vs Tyler:  Despite an incredible Sunday night output from Zach Ertz for Tyler, Ren got the win behind a great Monday night game from OBJ.  The win for Ren puts him a game up in his division over Matt, with 3 games left to go.  I mentioned up above how Rob had a terrible week from most of his team.  Turns out Tyler had it worse, with 6 players scoring him 43.2 points (full disclosure, you can do this to pretty much everyone's team, but it didn't fit the stories I wanted to tell), yet he still got to 140+ points for the week.  His team confuses me so much.  The loss hurts, but Kyle also losing makes this hurt less.

Kyle vs Trevor:  Trevor should probably just buy a Saquon jersey at this point.  Not that it was a herculean effort to get him the win tonight, but still, Saquon is his team.  Though McCaffrey came up big this week and helped get the win/catch up on point totals.  The win means Trevor keeps pace with his division, and still has a chance to win the division somehow and end up with the 3 seed.  Fortunately for Kyle, Tyler lost, so Kyle holds onto his division lead/the bye week for now.

High Scorer of the week:  Overall, it felt like a lower scoring week than normal because the high scorer didn't blow everyone away, but the fact is out of 10 weeks so far, this week was #5 for total points -- meaning this was basically an average week for everyone, but that makes the league more fun.  Anyway, the award goes to Ren, which was deserved after that Monday Night Football Miracle.  It's his first such win of the year, and it also helped him win his game (obviously you win your game if you are the best scorer of the week), and that win helped him take the division lead for the first time since week 1.

Low Scorer of the week: After a few great weeks, Kyle crashed back down to earth and wins this prestigious award.  It's his second of the year, his other being week 1, when this probably wasn't an award (I just checked, it was -- I made it up because I was the high scorer that week), and the league was even crazier with random scores.

Luckiest Team of the week: Ren was in contention based on how/when he won, but the award will go to Tommy for his narrow margin of victory and for being a middle of the road scorer for the week, but still getting the win.

Unluckiest team of the week:  Tyler runs away with this for both the manner in which he lost and for being the second highest scorer of the week and still losing anyway.

So now for the overall playoff races come down to these scenarios:

North winner (and likely 1 seed):  Even after a loss this week, and a Skyler win, Brady is still in the driver's seat for the 1 seed due to his large point lead.  He could drop down, but it's unlikely.  Whoever doesn't win the division though will more than likely be the 4 seed.

West winner (and likely 2 seed):  This should come down to the winner of Kyle and Tyler.  They go back and forth enough that I don't think there is a clear leader just yet.  I'll give the edge to Kyle based on the current standings, but Tyler has the lead on points, so if they have a tied record, Tyler would take the lead.  The loser of this race will look to lock up the 5 seed, and play against the 4 seed from the north.  On the off chance, they jump to the 4 seed, the north will get the 5 seed, and the matchup stays the same.  The winner for the 4 vs 5 seed will play the 1 seed, so this division race might be the most important playoff race because it means getting the much better bracket -- though this is fantasy football, and weird things happen all the time.

South winner (and 3 seed):  This is completely up for grabs with first and last place being only two games apart, and with the schedules returning back to division play.  After being terrible all year, I fully expect one of these teams to get hot and somehow win the whole thing. Ren currently has a one-game lead on Matt, and two over Rob and Trevor, which puts Rob and Trevor under more pressure to win now, to win out, and hope Ren loses out, and Matt's only win the last 3 weeks is against Ren.

4 and 5 seed: Closely tied to the North and West races previously mentioned -- unless someone tanks hard to drop to the 6th seed, though that doesn't look likely at this point, or someone from the 6th seed could sneak up, but it doesn't seem likely.

6 seed:  This should be a very fun race.  For sure in the race are Geoff, Jordan, and TJ.  Depending on if they can get their acts together, Tommy and the non-division winner of Matt or Ren could also get involved.  It will make for some interesting scenarios.  Obviously, we all wish people were a little better, or that some terrible team wouldn't make the playoffs, but having everyone still be alive in some form or another for the playoffs is what makes the end of the season so exciting.

No one has been officially eliminated yet, but Trevor is on life support, and the Grim Reaper is headed his way.  Trevor needs to win out, needs the right combination of wins and losses for his division mates, and then needs to make sure he beats them on the tiebreaker.  It's a tall order, but still mathematically feasible -- and if he does it, he would get the 3 seed with a 5-8 record.  You could copy and paste all of that and replace Trevor with Rob and it would apply.  If it happens, we might have a rule change about 5-8 teams making the playoffs with such a high seed.

Tommy is in a similar boat to Trevor and Rob, but he is instead fighting for the 6th seed instead of his division championship.  In my scenario of the Grim Reaper coming for Trevor and Rob, Tommy is their roommate at the hospital, and the Grim Reaper will likely get them next week, but he doesn't know which one he will get first.

All the matchups are important at this stage, so instead of only writing about 2 or 3 matchups I will rank their importance (or at least fun storyline), and try to mention something interesting form each game.

1 - Kyle vs Tyler: If Kyle gets this win, he will take a 2 game lead over Tyler for the division lead/bye, with 2 games left in the season.  Tyler doesn't currently have an RB on his roster that isn't on bye next week.  This bodes well for Kyle.

2 - Jordan vs TJ:  Jordan currently has a 1 game lead, with a 20 point tie breaker on TJ.  If TJ gets the win, he erases the game lead, and will shrink (or even eliminate depending on the scoring margin) the tie breaker situation.  TJ won't be eliminated if he loses, but he will be on life support depending on who else wins or loses.

3 - Trevor vs Ren:  This is an elimination game for Trevor.  If he loses this he can't win his division or the wild card.  A win here for Ren will keep at least a game ahead of Matt.  The rest of the division will be pulling hard for Trevor next week.

4 - Rob vs Matt:  Matt needs to win to try and retake the division lead.  A Rob loss combined with a Ren win would eliminate Rob from the playoffs.

5 - Brady vs Tommy:  Tommy losing won't 100% eliminate him because he could still come back on tiebreakers (in theory, but it won't really happen), but it would be next to impossible.  If he lost and all the teams he was competing with for the 6th lost, he definitely wouldn't be eliminated, he would just need a miracle.  A Brady win keeps him on pace for the 1 seed.  Tommy's best hope is that with the Patriots (2 RB, 1 WR, 1 DST for Brady) and the 49ers (1 TE for Brady) on bye, that Brady can't pull through this week, and Tommy sneaks out the win.

6 - Skyler vs Geoff:  At this point, it would be hard for Skyler to drop below the 5th seed, and he has for sure clinched a playoff spot.  It would also be hard to catch Brady on the one seed, and then keep it, so Skyler is waiting in purgatory for the playoffs to begin.  A loss does not eliminate Geoff, but it certainly doesn't help him, and a win helps eliminate some crazy scenarios.  If he lost and TJ beat Jordan, there would be a 3-way tie for 6th.  If Matt beat Rob, he would join and make it a 4-way tie for 6th.  I am now rooting for this 4 way tie scenario.  Except I just realized that if Ren lost, it would kind of be a 5-way tie for the 6 seed (even though Matt and Ren would also be tied for their division lead), so that is my new vote.  Except if we give Tommy a win, he would also join in on the tie, so that is my newest vote.  And also Tyler losing means he would join in on the fun -- I should quit casting votes until I think through all of the scenarios.

So to recap the craziest timeline, a Geoff loss, a Tommy win, a Tyler loss, a TJ win, a Ren loss, and a Matt win would mean 7 people would be tied for 5th and 6th (Matt and Ren also tied for 3rd).  I really want this to happen.

Also, the primetime games will be great with the Vikings vs Bears and Chiefs vs Rams (that will be such a fun game) playing, and with 6 other teams on bye, we could see somewhere around 18 fantasy players from those two games in starting lineups.

Anyway, that's it for now.  Good luck everyone (except Geoff -- and Brady, Tyler, Jordan, Ren and Rob) as we get back into the division games next week.

Week 9: The Playoff Push Intensifies

Week 9 is in the books.  We have one more week of inter-division play, and then we are back to beating up on the people in our own divisions.  Until then, let's look back at what happened week 9, and what it means for the playoffs.

Skyler vs Rob:  Skyler managed to get the Monday night win behind Ezekiel Elliot, which gets him to 7 wins.  That's not a guaranteed playoff spot, but something like 90+% of those who get to 7 wins make the playoffs.  Robs loss doesn't put him in last place because he outscored Trevor by a large enough margin, but he is certainly in the danger zone (aka only 6 points ahead)

Matt vs Geoff:  In the battle of fringe playoff teams, Matt got the win over Geoff.  However, the Jordan/Ren game went in such a way that Matt and Geoff don't really gain or lose any ground after this game.  Matt and Geoff obviously would prefer to win, but they aren't necessarily competing for the same spot, so this loss doesn't kill Geoff, even though it was by 30ish points.

TJ vs Trevor:  It wasn't close, it was a blowout.  TJ likely would have won had he just started his QB, WR1, and DST.  The biggest problem facing the rest of TJ's season is that he isn't in the South.  If he were in the South Division, he would be tied for first.  Instead, he is in the West and is in last place.

Ren vs Jordan:  Ren is getting hot at the right time and is in the division hunt.  If he can sneak into the playoffs, he could end up making some noise behind Kamara and Cook. The loss puts Jordan a game behind Geoff in the wild-card standings.

Tyler vs Brady: Give me a second, I'm copying the first sentence from TJ vs Trevor.  It wasn't close, it was a blowout.  Brady whooped Tyler and is further cementing his grip on first place in the regular season.

Kyle vs Tommy:  It wasn't the beatdown that TJ gave Trevor, or Brady gave Tyler, but it was a solid win for Kyle all the same.  His win plus Tyler's loss puts him back in the division lead, and the second seed in the playoffs.  As much as it pains me to say it, Kyle is putting up some decent points the last three weeks.

Currently, Brady is winning the North, Matt is winning the South, and Kyle leads the West.  No one leads by more than a game though so inter-division play could change those standings.  However, I want to look at the Wildcard situations right now.  Everything will be in relation to 6th place since that is the last spot/person to make the playoffs.

Rank    Team      Margin from 6th
4th       Skyler      +2
5th       Tyler         0
6th       Geoff        0
7th       TJ            -1
8th       Jordan     -1
9th       Ren         -1

Something I just realized is that Brady still hasn't officially clinched the playoffs, but it is close.  At 8 wins, with 4 games left to play, he can't be caught by Tommy, Trevor, or Rob, since they all have less than 4 wins.  The 4 teams that could, in theory, catch him are split 2 in one division, and 2 in another -- meaning that the two teams in the west and the two teams in the south will play each other.  That means each one of them is a guaranteed loss.  So that means he can't be caught by 5 people, but 6 is the magic number to clinch a playoff spot.  I'm sure Brady gets there next week, but he would have liked to get there today.

The purpose of all of that is to say that people are still competing for the playoffs.  Sure, Tommy, Trevor, and Rob can't catch Brady, but they can catch the wildcard teams -- so no one should give up.

High Score of the week:  This goes to the number one team overall.  Brady cleared the second highest scorer by 10 points this week, and further cements his status as the number 1 team.

Low Score of the week: Geoff's hot streak came to an end, but he had built up enough of a buffer that he is still in the lead for the last wildcard spot.  He doesn't have that margin for error next week though.

Luckiest Team of the week:  The true answer is no one because all of the teams that finished in the top 6 won, but because Matt was the lowest scoring winner, he goes here by default.

Unluckiest Team of the week: The true answer is no one because all of the teams that finished in the top 6 won, but since Rob was the highest scoring loser, and he was in the closest game, he goes here by default.

Interesting notes from the matchups next week -- I normally only pick a few matchups, but there are enough decent storylines/matchups that go together that I will include everyone this week.

Geoff vs Jordan & Skyler vs TJ:  Winner of Geoff vs Jordan should be the 6 seed of the playoffs, though if Jordan wins, and TJ wins, and TJ outscores Jordan by 4ish, TJ would move up ahead of both Jordan and Geoff for the 6th seed, so that's why these matchups are in the same section.

Matt vs Tommy & Ren vs Tyler:  I am doubling up on this one because if Matt loses and Ren wins, Matt will no longer be the division leader, which is a title he has held on to after beating Ren in week 2.  If Matt wins and Ren loses, that will give Matt a 1 game cushion as we head back into the division rounds.  If Tommy loses, he might as well kiss the playoffs goodbye.

Rob vs Brady & Trevor vs Kyle:  If Rob and/or Trevor lose, they can kiss a wild card birth goodbye, and they would need a miracle to win the division.  If they win, they still have a shot (though a very long one) at winning the division.  Making the wildcard would be a miracle for either of them at this point.  A Brady win clinches him the playoffs for sure, and it would guarantee that the North would have a bye week because no on in the South could catch him (he could still lose the bye week to Skyler, but the North would still have the bye if that happened).

Prime time matchups next week are the Cowboys and Eagles on Sunday Night Football and the Giants and the 49ers on Monday Night Football.  I was about to say that doesn't sound very exciting, but that should be around 9 starters (excluding kickers), so it actually could be semi-interesting.

Well that's all for this week.  Good luck to everyone but TJ in week 10.