First things first, I will confirm that for whatever reason, it seemed like a good idea to get this weeks title from Transformers. I have no idea why I would do it, but I did. There won't be a Transformers theme for the rest of the post or anything like that. Anyway...
Skyler vs TJ: After the trade and for most of the morning and early afternoon, TJ looked like he would win, but then Ezekiel Elliot happened. Before Sunday Zeke has had one game over 30 all year (he got 36 this week - his high score for the season), and all of his other games were under 20. He's had a weird year but steps up big time on Sunday night football. The unexpected loss puts TJ in a little bit of a playoff hole. He can still overcome it, given that he still plays Jordan head to head and that Geoff isn't likely to win out -- TJ's margin of error is just getting smaller.
Jordan vs Geoff: In one of the more nerve-wracking wins, Jordan needed 6 points from his kicker on Monday night (who is on the terrible 49ers) to get the win over Geoff. Jordan got it pretty easily after his kicker got him a 50 yard field goal on the first drive. The win for Jordan means he pulls even with Geoff on wins and holds a decent margin (40) on points scored to pull ahead in the playoff standings.
Matt vs Tommy: I was selfishly watching Aaron Rodgers and cheering for more TD's when I saw a message from Matt calling Tommy a dog. Turns out those last 3 minutes between them were pretty intense. It was something like a .06 point lead for Tommy, but the Rams had just gotten the ball back and were trying to run out the clock, and Seattle had all three timeouts, so the Rams couldn't take a knee and be done with it. Matt had Todd Gurley and was hopeful to eke out the win through a few rushing yards, maybe a first down, to ice the game. Fortunately for Tommy, the Seahawks D held tough, but only after Gurley had scored enough points to give Matt the lead again. Fortunately for Tommy, the Seahawks were down 7 points, and he had their top two WR's. He only needed one catch for about 5 yards to win (by like .2), but he ended up getting the win by 3 points for good measure. The loss puts Matt into panic mode, where he is looking to possibly sell Gurley.
Rob vs Brady: Rob had a pretty terrible weekend from most of his team. 6 of his players got him a combined 51.9 points. Fortunately for him, Wentz, M. Gordon, and A. Jones got him a combined 84.9, which was enough to sneak out the win over Brady and a last-ditch effort from George Kittle on Monday night. Brady was done in by a lot of meh outings from his own players, even though Julio got another touchdown. Fitzpatrick scored his lowest total of the year (in a game where he wasn't pulled for Jameis anyway), and James White also had his worst game of the year. Even after the loss, Brady is still in first due to his large lead over Skyler in points scored (70). Rob stays put in the overall standings, and stays at 3rd in his division, but he does catch up in the win column on Matt since he lost this week, though Ren's win doesn't help his cause. He is still 2 games out from the division lead -- he has the points tiebreaker over Ren, but not over Matt. That should be a fun division race.
Ren vs Tyler: Despite an incredible Sunday night output from Zach Ertz for Tyler, Ren got the win behind a great Monday night game from OBJ. The win for Ren puts him a game up in his division over Matt, with 3 games left to go. I mentioned up above how Rob had a terrible week from most of his team. Turns out Tyler had it worse, with 6 players scoring him 43.2 points (full disclosure, you can do this to pretty much everyone's team, but it didn't fit the stories I wanted to tell), yet he still got to 140+ points for the week. His team confuses me so much. The loss hurts, but Kyle also losing makes this hurt less.
Kyle vs Trevor: Trevor should probably just buy a Saquon jersey at this point. Not that it was a herculean effort to get him the win tonight, but still, Saquon is his team. Though McCaffrey came up big this week and helped get the win/catch up on point totals. The win means Trevor keeps pace with his division, and still has a chance to win the division somehow and end up with the 3 seed. Fortunately for Kyle, Tyler lost, so Kyle holds onto his division lead/the bye week for now.
High Scorer of the week: Overall, it felt like a lower scoring week than normal because the high scorer didn't blow everyone away, but the fact is out of 10 weeks so far, this week was #5 for total points -- meaning this was basically an average week for everyone, but that makes the league more fun. Anyway, the award goes to Ren, which was deserved after that Monday Night Football Miracle. It's his first such win of the year, and it also helped him win his game (obviously you win your game if you are the best scorer of the week), and that win helped him take the division lead for the first time since week 1.
Low Scorer of the week: After a few great weeks, Kyle crashed back down to earth and wins this prestigious award. It's his second of the year, his other being week 1, when this probably wasn't an award (I just checked, it was -- I made it up because I was the high scorer that week), and the league was even crazier with random scores.
Luckiest Team of the week: Ren was in contention based on how/when he won, but the award will go to Tommy for his narrow margin of victory and for being a middle of the road scorer for the week, but still getting the win.
Unluckiest team of the week: Tyler runs away with this for both the manner in which he lost and for being the second highest scorer of the week and still losing anyway.
So now for the overall playoff races come down to these scenarios:
North winner (and likely 1 seed): Even after a loss this week, and a Skyler win, Brady is still in the driver's seat for the 1 seed due to his large point lead. He could drop down, but it's unlikely. Whoever doesn't win the division though will more than likely be the 4 seed.
West winner (and likely 2 seed): This should come down to the winner of Kyle and Tyler. They go back and forth enough that I don't think there is a clear leader just yet. I'll give the edge to Kyle based on the current standings, but Tyler has the lead on points, so if they have a tied record, Tyler would take the lead. The loser of this race will look to lock up the 5 seed, and play against the 4 seed from the north. On the off chance, they jump to the 4 seed, the north will get the 5 seed, and the matchup stays the same. The winner for the 4 vs 5 seed will play the 1 seed, so this division race might be the most important playoff race because it means getting the much better bracket -- though this is fantasy football, and weird things happen all the time.
South winner (and 3 seed): This is completely up for grabs with first and last place being only two games apart, and with the schedules returning back to division play. After being terrible all year, I fully expect one of these teams to get hot and somehow win the whole thing. Ren currently has a one-game lead on Matt, and two over Rob and Trevor, which puts Rob and Trevor under more pressure to win now, to win out, and hope Ren loses out, and Matt's only win the last 3 weeks is against Ren.
4 and 5 seed: Closely tied to the North and West races previously mentioned -- unless someone tanks hard to drop to the 6th seed, though that doesn't look likely at this point, or someone from the 6th seed could sneak up, but it doesn't seem likely.
6 seed: This should be a very fun race. For sure in the race are Geoff, Jordan, and TJ. Depending on if they can get their acts together, Tommy and the non-division winner of Matt or Ren could also get involved. It will make for some interesting scenarios. Obviously, we all wish people were a little better, or that some terrible team wouldn't make the playoffs, but having everyone still be alive in some form or another for the playoffs is what makes the end of the season so exciting.
No one has been officially eliminated yet, but Trevor is on life support, and the Grim Reaper is headed his way. Trevor needs to win out, needs the right combination of wins and losses for his division mates, and then needs to make sure he beats them on the tiebreaker. It's a tall order, but still mathematically feasible -- and if he does it, he would get the 3 seed with a 5-8 record. You could copy and paste all of that and replace Trevor with Rob and it would apply. If it happens, we might have a rule change about 5-8 teams making the playoffs with such a high seed.
Tommy is in a similar boat to Trevor and Rob, but he is instead fighting for the 6th seed instead of his division championship. In my scenario of the Grim Reaper coming for Trevor and Rob, Tommy is their roommate at the hospital, and the Grim Reaper will likely get them next week, but he doesn't know which one he will get first.
All the matchups are important at this stage, so instead of only writing about 2 or 3 matchups I will rank their importance (or at least fun storyline), and try to mention something interesting form each game.
1 - Kyle vs Tyler: If Kyle gets this win, he will take a 2 game lead over Tyler for the division lead/bye, with 2 games left in the season. Tyler doesn't currently have an RB on his roster that isn't on bye next week. This bodes well for Kyle.
2 - Jordan vs TJ: Jordan currently has a 1 game lead, with a 20 point tie breaker on TJ. If TJ gets the win, he erases the game lead, and will shrink (or even eliminate depending on the scoring margin) the tie breaker situation. TJ won't be eliminated if he loses, but he will be on life support depending on who else wins or loses.
3 - Trevor vs Ren: This is an elimination game for Trevor. If he loses this he can't win his division or the wild card. A win here for Ren will keep at least a game ahead of Matt. The rest of the division will be pulling hard for Trevor next week.
4 - Rob vs Matt: Matt needs to win to try and retake the division lead. A Rob loss combined with a Ren win would eliminate Rob from the playoffs.
5 - Brady vs Tommy: Tommy losing won't 100% eliminate him because he could still come back on tiebreakers (in theory, but it won't really happen), but it would be next to impossible. If he lost and all the teams he was competing with for the 6th lost, he definitely wouldn't be eliminated, he would just need a miracle. A Brady win keeps him on pace for the 1 seed. Tommy's best hope is that with the Patriots (2 RB, 1 WR, 1 DST for Brady) and the 49ers (1 TE for Brady) on bye, that Brady can't pull through this week, and Tommy sneaks out the win.
6 - Skyler vs Geoff: At this point, it would be hard for Skyler to drop below the 5th seed, and he has for sure clinched a playoff spot. It would also be hard to catch Brady on the one seed, and then keep it, so Skyler is waiting in purgatory for the playoffs to begin. A loss does not eliminate Geoff, but it certainly doesn't help him, and a win helps eliminate some crazy scenarios. If he lost and TJ beat Jordan, there would be a 3-way tie for 6th. If Matt beat Rob, he would join and make it a 4-way tie for 6th. I am now rooting for this 4 way tie scenario. Except I just realized that if Ren lost, it would kind of be a 5-way tie for the 6 seed (even though Matt and Ren would also be tied for their division lead), so that is my new vote. Except if we give Tommy a win, he would also join in on the tie, so that is my newest vote. And also Tyler losing means he would join in on the fun -- I should quit casting votes until I think through all of the scenarios.
So to recap the craziest timeline, a Geoff loss, a Tommy win, a Tyler loss, a TJ win, a Ren loss, and a Matt win would mean 7 people would be tied for 5th and 6th (Matt and Ren also tied for 3rd). I really want this to happen.
Also, the primetime games will be great with the Vikings vs Bears and Chiefs vs Rams (that will be such a fun game) playing, and with 6 other teams on bye, we could see somewhere around 18 fantasy players from those two games in starting lineups.
Anyway, that's it for now. Good luck everyone (except Geoff -- and Brady, Tyler, Jordan, Ren and Rob) as we get back into the division games next week.
Skyler vs TJ: After the trade and for most of the morning and early afternoon, TJ looked like he would win, but then Ezekiel Elliot happened. Before Sunday Zeke has had one game over 30 all year (he got 36 this week - his high score for the season), and all of his other games were under 20. He's had a weird year but steps up big time on Sunday night football. The unexpected loss puts TJ in a little bit of a playoff hole. He can still overcome it, given that he still plays Jordan head to head and that Geoff isn't likely to win out -- TJ's margin of error is just getting smaller.
Jordan vs Geoff: In one of the more nerve-wracking wins, Jordan needed 6 points from his kicker on Monday night (who is on the terrible 49ers) to get the win over Geoff. Jordan got it pretty easily after his kicker got him a 50 yard field goal on the first drive. The win for Jordan means he pulls even with Geoff on wins and holds a decent margin (40) on points scored to pull ahead in the playoff standings.
Matt vs Tommy: I was selfishly watching Aaron Rodgers and cheering for more TD's when I saw a message from Matt calling Tommy a dog. Turns out those last 3 minutes between them were pretty intense. It was something like a .06 point lead for Tommy, but the Rams had just gotten the ball back and were trying to run out the clock, and Seattle had all three timeouts, so the Rams couldn't take a knee and be done with it. Matt had Todd Gurley and was hopeful to eke out the win through a few rushing yards, maybe a first down, to ice the game. Fortunately for Tommy, the Seahawks D held tough, but only after Gurley had scored enough points to give Matt the lead again. Fortunately for Tommy, the Seahawks were down 7 points, and he had their top two WR's. He only needed one catch for about 5 yards to win (by like .2), but he ended up getting the win by 3 points for good measure. The loss puts Matt into panic mode, where he is looking to possibly sell Gurley.
Rob vs Brady: Rob had a pretty terrible weekend from most of his team. 6 of his players got him a combined 51.9 points. Fortunately for him, Wentz, M. Gordon, and A. Jones got him a combined 84.9, which was enough to sneak out the win over Brady and a last-ditch effort from George Kittle on Monday night. Brady was done in by a lot of meh outings from his own players, even though Julio got another touchdown. Fitzpatrick scored his lowest total of the year (in a game where he wasn't pulled for Jameis anyway), and James White also had his worst game of the year. Even after the loss, Brady is still in first due to his large lead over Skyler in points scored (70). Rob stays put in the overall standings, and stays at 3rd in his division, but he does catch up in the win column on Matt since he lost this week, though Ren's win doesn't help his cause. He is still 2 games out from the division lead -- he has the points tiebreaker over Ren, but not over Matt. That should be a fun division race.
Ren vs Tyler: Despite an incredible Sunday night output from Zach Ertz for Tyler, Ren got the win behind a great Monday night game from OBJ. The win for Ren puts him a game up in his division over Matt, with 3 games left to go. I mentioned up above how Rob had a terrible week from most of his team. Turns out Tyler had it worse, with 6 players scoring him 43.2 points (full disclosure, you can do this to pretty much everyone's team, but it didn't fit the stories I wanted to tell), yet he still got to 140+ points for the week. His team confuses me so much. The loss hurts, but Kyle also losing makes this hurt less.
Kyle vs Trevor: Trevor should probably just buy a Saquon jersey at this point. Not that it was a herculean effort to get him the win tonight, but still, Saquon is his team. Though McCaffrey came up big this week and helped get the win/catch up on point totals. The win means Trevor keeps pace with his division, and still has a chance to win the division somehow and end up with the 3 seed. Fortunately for Kyle, Tyler lost, so Kyle holds onto his division lead/the bye week for now.
High Scorer of the week: Overall, it felt like a lower scoring week than normal because the high scorer didn't blow everyone away, but the fact is out of 10 weeks so far, this week was #5 for total points -- meaning this was basically an average week for everyone, but that makes the league more fun. Anyway, the award goes to Ren, which was deserved after that Monday Night Football Miracle. It's his first such win of the year, and it also helped him win his game (obviously you win your game if you are the best scorer of the week), and that win helped him take the division lead for the first time since week 1.
Low Scorer of the week: After a few great weeks, Kyle crashed back down to earth and wins this prestigious award. It's his second of the year, his other being week 1, when this probably wasn't an award (I just checked, it was -- I made it up because I was the high scorer that week), and the league was even crazier with random scores.
Luckiest Team of the week: Ren was in contention based on how/when he won, but the award will go to Tommy for his narrow margin of victory and for being a middle of the road scorer for the week, but still getting the win.
Unluckiest team of the week: Tyler runs away with this for both the manner in which he lost and for being the second highest scorer of the week and still losing anyway.
So now for the overall playoff races come down to these scenarios:
North winner (and likely 1 seed): Even after a loss this week, and a Skyler win, Brady is still in the driver's seat for the 1 seed due to his large point lead. He could drop down, but it's unlikely. Whoever doesn't win the division though will more than likely be the 4 seed.
West winner (and likely 2 seed): This should come down to the winner of Kyle and Tyler. They go back and forth enough that I don't think there is a clear leader just yet. I'll give the edge to Kyle based on the current standings, but Tyler has the lead on points, so if they have a tied record, Tyler would take the lead. The loser of this race will look to lock up the 5 seed, and play against the 4 seed from the north. On the off chance, they jump to the 4 seed, the north will get the 5 seed, and the matchup stays the same. The winner for the 4 vs 5 seed will play the 1 seed, so this division race might be the most important playoff race because it means getting the much better bracket -- though this is fantasy football, and weird things happen all the time.
South winner (and 3 seed): This is completely up for grabs with first and last place being only two games apart, and with the schedules returning back to division play. After being terrible all year, I fully expect one of these teams to get hot and somehow win the whole thing. Ren currently has a one-game lead on Matt, and two over Rob and Trevor, which puts Rob and Trevor under more pressure to win now, to win out, and hope Ren loses out, and Matt's only win the last 3 weeks is against Ren.
4 and 5 seed: Closely tied to the North and West races previously mentioned -- unless someone tanks hard to drop to the 6th seed, though that doesn't look likely at this point, or someone from the 6th seed could sneak up, but it doesn't seem likely.
6 seed: This should be a very fun race. For sure in the race are Geoff, Jordan, and TJ. Depending on if they can get their acts together, Tommy and the non-division winner of Matt or Ren could also get involved. It will make for some interesting scenarios. Obviously, we all wish people were a little better, or that some terrible team wouldn't make the playoffs, but having everyone still be alive in some form or another for the playoffs is what makes the end of the season so exciting.
No one has been officially eliminated yet, but Trevor is on life support, and the Grim Reaper is headed his way. Trevor needs to win out, needs the right combination of wins and losses for his division mates, and then needs to make sure he beats them on the tiebreaker. It's a tall order, but still mathematically feasible -- and if he does it, he would get the 3 seed with a 5-8 record. You could copy and paste all of that and replace Trevor with Rob and it would apply. If it happens, we might have a rule change about 5-8 teams making the playoffs with such a high seed.
Tommy is in a similar boat to Trevor and Rob, but he is instead fighting for the 6th seed instead of his division championship. In my scenario of the Grim Reaper coming for Trevor and Rob, Tommy is their roommate at the hospital, and the Grim Reaper will likely get them next week, but he doesn't know which one he will get first.
All the matchups are important at this stage, so instead of only writing about 2 or 3 matchups I will rank their importance (or at least fun storyline), and try to mention something interesting form each game.
1 - Kyle vs Tyler: If Kyle gets this win, he will take a 2 game lead over Tyler for the division lead/bye, with 2 games left in the season. Tyler doesn't currently have an RB on his roster that isn't on bye next week. This bodes well for Kyle.
2 - Jordan vs TJ: Jordan currently has a 1 game lead, with a 20 point tie breaker on TJ. If TJ gets the win, he erases the game lead, and will shrink (or even eliminate depending on the scoring margin) the tie breaker situation. TJ won't be eliminated if he loses, but he will be on life support depending on who else wins or loses.
3 - Trevor vs Ren: This is an elimination game for Trevor. If he loses this he can't win his division or the wild card. A win here for Ren will keep at least a game ahead of Matt. The rest of the division will be pulling hard for Trevor next week.
4 - Rob vs Matt: Matt needs to win to try and retake the division lead. A Rob loss combined with a Ren win would eliminate Rob from the playoffs.
5 - Brady vs Tommy: Tommy losing won't 100% eliminate him because he could still come back on tiebreakers (in theory, but it won't really happen), but it would be next to impossible. If he lost and all the teams he was competing with for the 6th lost, he definitely wouldn't be eliminated, he would just need a miracle. A Brady win keeps him on pace for the 1 seed. Tommy's best hope is that with the Patriots (2 RB, 1 WR, 1 DST for Brady) and the 49ers (1 TE for Brady) on bye, that Brady can't pull through this week, and Tommy sneaks out the win.
6 - Skyler vs Geoff: At this point, it would be hard for Skyler to drop below the 5th seed, and he has for sure clinched a playoff spot. It would also be hard to catch Brady on the one seed, and then keep it, so Skyler is waiting in purgatory for the playoffs to begin. A loss does not eliminate Geoff, but it certainly doesn't help him, and a win helps eliminate some crazy scenarios. If he lost and TJ beat Jordan, there would be a 3-way tie for 6th. If Matt beat Rob, he would join and make it a 4-way tie for 6th. I am now rooting for this 4 way tie scenario. Except I just realized that if Ren lost, it would kind of be a 5-way tie for the 6 seed (even though Matt and Ren would also be tied for their division lead), so that is my new vote. Except if we give Tommy a win, he would also join in on the tie, so that is my newest vote. And also Tyler losing means he would join in on the fun -- I should quit casting votes until I think through all of the scenarios.
So to recap the craziest timeline, a Geoff loss, a Tommy win, a Tyler loss, a TJ win, a Ren loss, and a Matt win would mean 7 people would be tied for 5th and 6th (Matt and Ren also tied for 3rd). I really want this to happen.
Also, the primetime games will be great with the Vikings vs Bears and Chiefs vs Rams (that will be such a fun game) playing, and with 6 other teams on bye, we could see somewhere around 18 fantasy players from those two games in starting lineups.
Anyway, that's it for now. Good luck everyone (except Geoff -- and Brady, Tyler, Jordan, Ren and Rob) as we get back into the division games next week.
No comments:
Post a Comment