Monday, November 26, 2018

Week 12 part 2: Playoff Scenarios

To see the first post of the week, click here.  Now that things are final, here are some awards for this last week.

Highest Scorer of the Week: This one goes to Tyler.  I'm glad he got this because he deserved something good to happen to him this week.  I mean he had a rough week where he had to deal with BYU leading Utah for a whole half.  What a rough life.

Low Scorer of the Week: TJ gets this award on the week he could least afford it.  Sorry for your loss TJ, best of luck in the consolation bracket.

Luckiest Team of the Week:  The University of Utah.  The winner this week is Jordan for being the 10th highest scorer, but playing the 11th highest scorer.

Unluckiest Team of the Week: Matt is the winner this week, but he doesn't have the strongest case.  I suppose he is unlucky to lose by 6, but he mostly gets this award because he finished in 6th and still lost.

Here are the matchups, and some of their playoff implications.

Skyler vs Brady: This matchup is for the #1 seed.  Loser gets the #4 seed.  There are a couple of primetime players for Skyler, none for Brady (he is on the defense about a DST) so this will be a match that requires some waiting.

Tommy vs Koko:  As of this moment, Tommy is in the playoffs, and Konner is simply hoping to make it in.  They are both fighting for the 6th spot.  They both can't make it.  It should be a fun matchup.  They both have a player on the Steelers (Sunday night game) so it will go into Sunday Night for this game to be decided.

Trevor vs Matt:  Both are tied at 5-7, looking up at Ren for the division lead.  The winner could miss on the division if Ren wins, but they could still get the wildcard.  More on that later.  Trevor has someone on Sunday night while Matt has someone on Monday night.  This will be another wait it out game.

Ren vs Rob:  Ren has the inside track on winning his division and the 3 seed since he has a 1 game lead over both of them.  However, he is in the middle of them on points, so if he loses, he is in trouble, though he could still get a wildcard spot.  Rob has a lot of mid-Sunday games, as well as a game on Sunday night and Monday night.  Ren will be sweating this one out, but if he wins, he is golden.

Kyle vs TJ: With the loss this week, Kyle has moved out of the playoffs and into the 7th seed.  A win won't guarantee Kyle a win (if Tommy also won it would keep him ahead of Kyle), but if he doesn't win, he will be eliminated.  Kyle has two guys who are playing in primetime, while TJ has a DST playing on Sunday night, so this one will also go down to the wire as well.

Tyler vs Jordan:  This matchup is for the #2 seed.  Loser gets the #5 seed.  Tyler for sure has one late primetime player (possibly more based on his bench players).  Jordan has at least two late primetime players (possibly more based on his bench players).  It seems like every game is going late this week, and this one is no exception.

Now a player by player breakdown for how people can make or miss the playoffs.  I don't always include something like "maintain tiebreaker" or "lose tiebreaker", but those things matter for a decent amount of scenarios.

Skyler:

  • #1 seed: 
    • Win
  • #4 seed: 
    • Lose

Brady:

  • #1 seed: 
    • Win
  • #4 seed: 
    • Lose

Tyler:

  • #2 seed: 
    • Win
  • #5 seed: 
    • Lose
  • #6 seed or out of the playoffs: 
    • Lose AND Tommy win and Kyle win AND then lose on tiebreaker.  There is less than 1% chance of happening.

Jordan:

  • #2 seed: 
    • Win
  • #5 seed: 
    • Lose
  • #6 seed or out of the playoffs: 
    • Lose AND Tommy win AND Kyle win AND then lose on tiebreaker.  There is less than 1% chance of happening.

Ren:

  • #3 seed: 
    • Win OR
    • Lose AND outscore the winner of Trevor or Matt by enough to win on Tie Breaker
  • #6 seed:
    • Lose AND Tommy lose AND Kyle lose.
  • Out: 
    • Lose AND Tommy OR Kyle win.
Tommy:
  • #5 seed:
    • Win AND outscore loser of Tyler/Jordan by enough to pass on tiebreaker
  • #6 seed:
    • Win AND maintain tiebreaker of points OR
    • Lose AND Kyle lose AND score enough points to Ren and winner of Matt/Trevor
  • Out:
    • Lose AND lose out on tiebreaker
Kyle:
  •  #6 seed:
    • Win AND Tommy win AND score enough to pass Tommy on tiebreaker OR
    • Win AND Tommy lose OR
    • Lose AND maintain or gain tiebreaker over other 6-7 teams
  • Out:
    • Lose AND Tommy win OR
    • Lose AND Tommy lose AND tiebreaker does not go his way
Matt:

  • #3 seed: 
    • Win AND Ren loss, and maintain tiebreaker
  • #6 seed:
    • Win AND Ren win AND Tommy lose AND Kyle lose AND tiebreaker doesn't change
  • Out:
    • Lose OR
    • Win AND lose out on tiebreaker (not likely given his lead)

Trevor:
  • #3 seed:
    • Win AND Ren lose AND maintain tiebreaker
  • #6 seed:
    • Win AND Ren win AND Tommy lose AND Kyle lose AND maintain tiebreaker
  • Out:
    • Lose
Konner:
  • #6 seed:
    • Win AND gain tiebreaker over winner of Trevor/Matt AND Tommy lose and Kyle lose
  • Out: 
    • Win AND Kyle win OR not have tiebreaker over Trevor/Matt winner OR
    • Lose
Rob:

  • Out:
    • All - but can still mess with people
TJ:

  • Out:
    • All - but can still mess with people


Please text me if you have any questions, or if you think of a scenario that is not found here.  Best of luck to everyone not named Brady during our rivalry week.

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