Monday, November 24, 2014

Week 12: The Playoff Positions

So the last thing to worry about is Kyle vs. Konner for this week because everything else is decided.  I locked up the 1st seed, Ren locked up the 2nd seed, Trevor and Chad will finish 4th and 5th (if Chad wins next week and Trevor loses, they will tie on record, and chad will win on points, but it doesn't really matter in the long run), and the winner of Tyler and Jordan next week will get the 3rd seed.  If Kyle beats Jordan tonight, it gives Konner a bigger shot of getting into the playoffs.

Jordan and Tyler will face off at 6-6.  If one of them would have made a trade with my for my running backs, they likely would have won this week.  Sorry, back to the point of this blog.  Konner would only be 1 game behind at 5-7.  If he won next week over Kyle, he would have the same record as the loser of Tyler and Jordan and would get in on a tie breaker of points.  Considering Jordan is up by about 90 in total points, he would want Tyler to be the loser.  Seeing as how he is cheering for Jordan to win next week, it doesn't really matter if Jordan wins this week.

Rob was eliminated this week with the loss.  So the only thing of real interest next week is the battle for 6th between Konner and Tyler.  Again, Tyler could have locked up the playoffs this week by winning, which could have happened by trading with me.  But he might make it anyway.  See you all in week 13.  But we know Chad and Trevor are playing each other in week 14, and I play the winner of them in week 15.  Jordan will play Konner or Tyler in week 14, and the winner of that game will play ren in week 15.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Week 11: Who is in, and who is out of the playoffs.

I won’t get into much here because I have a decent amount of homework to do, so I’ll cut to the chase.  Most of the teams in the playoffs have been decided this week. I am assuming that Tyler’s tight end gets him the point necessary to win.  If Tyler somehow loses, I’m not sure if anyone is mathematically eliminated, but I’d have to double check.  Not really worth it since I assume he wins.  Anyway, about the playoffs. Skyler, Ren, Chad and Trevor are in.  Geoff, Brady, Matt and Kyle are out.  The winner of Jordan and Tyler in week 13 is in. 

That leaves Konner, Rob and the loser of Jordan/Tyler for the last spot.  If Jordan or Tyler win next week, they are in.  Basically for Rob or Konner to get in, they need the future loser of Jordan/Tyler to lose out, they would need to win out themselves, and then they would need to get in on points tie breaker.  Currently Tyler has the lower point total of the two, so they should probably hope for Tyler to lose out, and since Konner and Tyler play each other next week, that will be the big game.  That’s it for now.  Maybe after I’m done with homework tonight I’ll write more.

Monday, November 10, 2014

Week 10: Recap

Another week, another column (in my head it went with a Jay-Z line of “another day, another dollar”…just go with it), and another chance to talk about the crazy things that happened.  Except, the crazy stuff I wanted to see happen didn’t happen, and I’m a little disappointed.  Had Geoff and Brady won it would have made the wild card race even more fun, and the South division would be a little messier.  Instead they both lost, and the South is still messy – just at the top and not for 2nd and 3rd in the division.  Oh well. 

Trevor now has a one game lead over the entire West division, and Chad has a two game lead.  Right now it looks like each division will get 2 teams in the playoffs.  Interestingly enough, if the playoff started today (which they don’t and I sometimes hate when media does this, but I’m doing it anyway) Chad would play Trevor and the winner would play me, and Jordan and Tyler would play each other and the winner would play Ren.  So Jordan will jump from the 6th seed to the 3rd seed, and Tyler goes from 6 to 3, but they would still play each other.  I doubt everything stays the same the next three weeks, but if that somehow does, they would be fighting for the division championship, but the better seed wouldn’t do them any good.  Maybe the lowest of the division winners shouldn’t be given the 3 seed automatically.  Just a thought.

Next week division games begin again, so we should see division races tighten up.  Chad and Trevor each have a magic number of 1 to clinch their division.  The South is still a mess, with the top two teams being 5-4, and then Konner being one game behind, while Kyle is two games behind.  Kyle could win out and finish no worse than second in his division.  If he won out, and Konner beat both Tyler and Jordan, Kyle could win the division, though that’s not likely.  I suppose Tyler and Jordan could tie in their game, but that’s very unlikely, so basically the future winner of that game has an additional game lead over Konner and Kyle.  We just won’t know who that is until the last week of the season.  Ren and I cannot finish behind Kyle, Konner, Jordan, Tyler, Matt, Rob, Geoff, or Brady.  So we have gotten into the playoffs.  We could still lose the division titles, so we aren’t guaranteed a bye, but we are in the playoffs.  Chad can’t finish behind Geoff, Brady, Matt or Kyle – so while not guaranteed a spot if he were to lose out, he is in pretty good shape.  Trevor can’t finish behind Brady or Kyle, but that appears to be it.

Now that we know who is for sure in, let’s take a look at who is for sure out.  Matt and Brady can’t finish ahead of Me, Ren, Chad, and Trevor.  So even they aren’t eliminated from what I can tell.  To get in they would both need to win out, have Geoff and Rob lose out, and then either Tyler or Jordan to lose out (for this example, we will say Tyler since he has less points).  So if Jordan won out, and Tyler lost out, they would need Kyle to beat Konner.  Then Jordan would finish 8-5, Tyler would finish 5-8, Konner would finish 5-8, and Kyle would finish 5-8, and then Brady and Matt would finish 5-8, Rob would finish 4-9 and Geoff would finish 3-10.  And then only one of those 5-8 teams would make it.  If there is a Santa, I have a new Christmas wish – please make this happen!  So realistically they won’t make the playoffs, but it could happen.  However, they both won’t make the playoffs even if this did happen, so one of them is for sure eliminated, we just don’t know who yet.  That last week would be stressful.  All the right teams have to lose, and then everyone would worry about scoring the most points to win the tiebreaker.  And that’s if I did my math right just now.

So next week I think we can start eliminating people from the playoffs, but I hope not.  I don’t have much more to say about this week, other than I finally beat Konner in this league.  I am in two leagues with him, and I have beaten him in the other league before, but never this one.  It feels good.  But I’m sure he’s ok with it because they had a great comeback against Stansbury last week.  5 straight touchdowns in the last quarter and the last 5 seconds of the 3rd quarter to get the com from behind victory.  They play pine view this week at Rice Eccles.  So good luck to Dixie next week, and good luck to my miracle 5-8 scenario.  Also, I went 4-2 last week with my bye week advantages.  I was part of the 2 that I got wrong, so I'm ok with that, and the other was the Brady vs. Rob toss up.

Weekly Record: 3-1
Year to Date: 29-11

Monday, November 3, 2014

Week 10: More Bye Weeks and Magic Numbers

I went back to my last blog post to see how my predictions worked out, and I noticed just how many mistakes I made – both grammatically and fantasy wise.  I won’t correct my grammar errors on here, but I will acknowledge any fantasy prediction mistakes I had.  Here we go in the order that I made guesses last week.  Before I get to that, I will say that it appears my bye week advantages will win each game, so I did do something right.  Anyway, moving on.

Rob and me – I wasn’t sure if I had the big advantage over Rob (I didn’t) but my team came to play. It’s highly unlikely he makes a comeback tonight, but I suppose it could happen.

Matt and Geoff – I was wrong thinking that Matt would be in last no matter what.  It was definitely the battle for last place.  Geoff won, and should jump from 11th overall to 8th overall.  Very nice jump for him.  Anyway, Geoff overcame Tate being on bye and Bernard on injury.  Geoff scares me – I think he is getting hot and has a real shot at the playoffs.

Konner and Trevor – Rough week for Konner in fantasy football, not in high school football.  Trevor got the win and now has the inside track to the 5th seed.

Ren and Jordan – I might have been a little wrong about blowout, and I was also wrong about Demaryius Thomas and my paid vacation comment.  I thought it was so creative, and I wanted to use it.  I was also wrong about Peyton going bonkers, though he still played well.  As long as Fleener doesn’t go bonkers, Ren will win.

Brady and Tyler – I had the right call on bye week advantage, wrong call on who was going to win.  Everyone lost that Brady needed to lose, but he couldn’t get the win.  Some of that is Rivers getting -2 points, and some is on starting the wrong guys. Looking at his team though, I can’t say I fault him for his roster choices.

Kyle and Chad – Kyle’s depth really hurt him this week.  Not sure what else to say about it.  He should bounce back next week and have a better point total.  For Chad it will be interesting to see how Sanu plays with Green back, but so far, so good.

Magic Numbers – So after this week, if everything holds like I think it will, here are some magic number updates.  Chad’s magic number for the division championship is now 2.  So it would be super nice if I won and he lost next week.  Chad has a good shot at winning, and I think I lose to Konner, so that number should stay the same for another week.  Rob and Matt each lost, and Ren won, so they can no longer win the division.  Trevor’s number is 2 because Ren won as well.
Tyler won this week, and now has the division lead by one game.  It’s still really close, but Kyle’s magic number should be 3, but I’m not 100% if the head to head matchup changes anything.  I think it only speeds up Kyle’s ability to come back or to be eliminated from winning the division.  Jordan and Konner have a magic number of 4.  Not that Konner, Tyler and Jordan can all win out, but if they could, Tyler wouldn’t clinch until the last week.  Considering it’s all division games starting in week 11, a lot of things can change, and can change quickly. 

Wild Card – Chad has the 4th seed, and leads Trevor by 1 game, who has the 5th seed, and then 6th seed is still crammed.  Jordan currently leads the 6 seed and is currently 4-5.  He is beating Konner on points.  Kyle, Rob and Geoff are 1 game behind, and Brady and Matt are 2 games behind the 6 seed.  I think everyone can mathematically still get the 4 seed, but I haven’t looked into head to head schedules enough to say how likely that is.

Bye Week Advantages: Week 10 – I will try and be quicker here than last week. I will name the person who I think has the advantage from bye weeks, and I will note if I think the other person still has the game advantage.
Skyler & Konner – Konner (I will be missing some important Patriots, namely my RB and TE)
Jordan & Geoff – Jordan (Jordan should be down a TE, Geoff will be down his QB, a WR, and a RB or two)
Matt & Chad – Chad (Chad will only be missing Malcom Floyd, and his kicker, Matt will miss a TE, his DST and two WR’s)
Rob & Brady – Brady (This is close, Brady is missing some important players, but Rob is missing a lot of players, so he would need to do more work this week to put in a full roster)
Ren & Tyler – Ren (Ren is missing Foster, though he is hurt, and a bunch of bench rotation players, maybe the occasional flex, Tyler will miss his MVP in Luck, and also Edelman.  His QB depth isn’t bad, but losing your best player is never good)
Trevor & Kyle – Trevor (Trevor is only going to miss his DST, Kyle will miss a TE, WR, K, and DST)

Next Week Scenarios – Geoff and Jordan is a big one.  Geoff is currently up by about 10 points, but back one win.  Next week would jump Geoff up over Jordan, and possibly over Konner, but I do think Konner will beat me, and will stay ahead of Geoff.  Another big one is Brady and Rob.  If Brady wins he would jump Rob, and possibly Kyle (who plays Trevor).  Those are the two big games that could change the standings and the wild card race.  That’s it for me.  Good luck to everyone but Konner next week.

Weekly Record: 3-1
Year to Date: 26-10