Monday, October 16, 2017

The King in the North

I took a few weeks off of blogging because I was on vacation and the time zone was screwy.  I'm still a little screwy from the time zone change/jet lag, but not enough to prevent me from writing.

First, a recap of this weeks games, followed by some Game of Thrones comparisons.  So potential spoiler warning, though if there is a Venn Diagram of people who will read this and watch game of thrones, there is a very small middle section.  But, there is one picture of some fun/bad photoshop, and the title is a key of who it will be.  Also, I am not implying any incestual relationships between anyone in the league, even if it may happen in game of thrones.  I don't want to hear jokes about that later on -- though no one else in my league watches the show as far as I know.

Brady has won yet again and basically got a spot in the playoffs.  Even if he has the worlds worst drop off and doesn't win another game, our league has a history of teams with a record of 6-7 making the playoffs.  Odds are good he can win 2 of the next 7 though and guarantee a spot.  This will be only the second time in the modern era that Brady makes the playoffs.

We had two nailbiters with Matt taking down TJ by 1.48, and Geoff beating Kyle by 3.98.  I suppose a stat correction could happen, but it's not likely.  Matt came from behind and got the win on a 53-yard Mariota TD pass.  Had Mariota thrown for 38 fewer yards, TJ would have won.  As a Titans fan, I loved the play.  From a fantasy standpoint, I feel bad for TJ -- he lost last week by fewer than 7 points, and the week before that by .2.  I think we know how he does so well at his losing weight challenge -- fantasy football makes him angry, and then he angry exercises all the calories away all week.  Maybe losing in fantasy football will help you in the long term TJ?

In the battle of 1-4 teams. Kyle tried his best to come back against Geoff, but with only 4.7 from his combined Colts tonight, he couldn't pull it off.  The strange part is over 5 weeks (not including this week's games) Kyle has outscored Geoff by 200 points, or an average of 40 points per week.  Kyle has some of the worst luck I have ever seen.

Speaking of Geoff winning, the teams from the North division are now 11-1 in non-division games.  The only non-division team to beat a team from the North is Ren.  It will be interesting come playoff time to see if the 3 times.

The only other game that was potentially interesting tonight was my game with Tyler, but my kicker had the game of his life, and Demarco Murray had his second best game all season and I ended up winning this one -- but really it only happened because Tyler looks to have lost Aaron Rodger for the season.  As someone who is on the edge of the playoff race (assuming he doesn't win the division), this was a bad week for Tyler.  His whole division lost today though, so he will still be in first place in his division at 3-3.

Now for the game of thrones part.  I will compare teams/owners to characters from game of thrones, starting with Brady.  If I knew photoshop better and had the patience, maybe I would do this for all of the teams, but this whole idea came about because of Brady being the best team in the North division.



Brady = Jon Snow:

  • King in the North
  • Dark Hair
  • Was in the shadows early on importance to Westeros/The League (Jon is a bastard, and was never going to inherit land or titles, and Brady didn't win a lot before this season)
  • I didn't say these were great comparisons.
Skyler = Sansa Stark:
  • Red-Headed cousin of the previously mentioned person.
  • Jealous of said cousin's success.
  • Known to make some head-shaking dumb decisions.
Sticking with the North Division being Starks

Chad = Aria Stark:
  • Small
  • Petite
  • Is an effective killer, but personal arc hasn't had a huge impact on westeros as a whole (Chad just can't win the league/get his name on the trophy even though he is consistently great)
  • I didn't say I would be nice in these comparisons.
Geoff = Rob Stark:
  • The first person to have the title of "King in the North" (First championship winner in modern era)
  • Died shortly thereafter (hasn't done a whole lot since).
Matt = Cersei Lannister:
  • Currently rules the land (has the trophy).
  • Kind of ruled through someone else in the past (won the trophy for Jordan's team).
Kyle = Warlocks of Qarth:
  • All flash (scores a ton of points), but no substance (worst record in the league)
TJ = Daenerys Targaryen:
  • Looks like about to break through, but loses some heartbreakers at the last moment (she loses one of her dragons and the iron fleet, TJ loses in the 4th quarters of Monday Night Football).

Ren = The White Walkers:

  • A legend that has existed for a long while (had a few great years, and has picked some great sleepers) but no one really believes it's out there anymore -- until it's too late.
  • Really good at mindless tasks like marching through the snow (sitting at a computer coding -- which I know isn't mindless, but I needed to put a second line here since I didn't on the last two).
Jordan  =  Tormund Giantsbane:
  • Tall Readhead
  • Physically gifted (you've seen Jordan play basketball right?)
  • Struggles with White Walkers (not exactly true in the show, but Jordan has only beat Ren twice in the regular season, so it works here)
Trevor = Gendry:
  • You hear from him once and a while, but is mostly rowing out at sea, not doing much in the grand scheme of things.
  • Sorry Trevor, it's late and I'm struggling here -- not that you know who this character is.

Tyler = Theon Greyjoy:

  • Rides the Starks coattails and pisses them off when he double crosses them (whenever Tyler sits next to me or Brady at the draft, he asks for help, and then still takes the players we want, even when we exclude said players from the list we help him with).
  • Is a skinny fellow.
Rob = Petyr Baelish:
  • Has lots of sneaky plans that gives me headaches.
  • Doesn't seem formidable, but is a lot more dangerous than he seems (Who is Arian Foster Rob? You know randy moss is past his prime right Rob? You only picked this Gronkoski guy because of his last name right Rob?)


Well there you go, sorry for how long it took.




Tuesday, September 26, 2017

All Hail the King

It's Brady's world, and we're all just living in it.  After a furious comeback by my team, Brady squeaked out a win by 1.34 point to remain the only undefeated team.  Personally, I'm pissed my team let me down, but it never really should have been that close since Brady's TE got him 0 and his defense got him -4.  As someone who enjoys the history of the league, I am interested to see how long this will go on.  Brady hasn't started this hot before, and there are no other 3-0 teams competing for the top spot this week.  He plays Jordan next week, which is no easy to task, but it is still a winnable game.

As for the rest of the week 3 review, only two other games were within 20 -- so there weren't really any exciting finishes that had people sweating it out.  Hopefully that changes next week.  Maybe it will change if we all get better at starting the right people, but who knows.  All the games are currently projected to be within 10 points, but we all know that NFL.com projections are the worst.

The most interesting game of the week will be Brady (3-0) vs Jordan (2-1) and Chad (2-1) vs TJ (2-1).  All the other match-ups feature at least one time with a losing record.  I know they still matter early in the seasons, but I can't pick every game as interesting, and there are only 6 games from which I can choose.  Best of luck to everyone but Ren this week.

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Week 1 and 2 Review

I wanted to write about week 1, but I was traveling to New York that Sunday for work, and because of all the mishaps during travel (the flight was an hour and a half late, so I missed my connection, which meant I had to get rerouted through Columbus and then got to New York at 9 AM eastern time with maybe an hour of sleep) I went to bed early (9 pm) that Monday night.

There was only one close game week 1.  Chad would have won had Andy Dalton gotten hurt on the first play and ended up with no points.  Instead, Andy Dalton got -3 points, and Chad lost by 2.98 points.

Week 2 was a little better, as there were two close games (both decided by less than 4 points), but overall, the competition has been lacking.

That isn't to say that the results/standings haven't been interesting.  I decided to go back and look at how many teams started 2-0 and how many of said teams made the playoffs.  I don't know why it has worked out this way, but we consistently have three 2-0 teams each year (one from each division).  There have been 2 years (2010, 2016) where we have only had two 2-0 teams, and we had one year (2013) where we had four 2-0 teams.  I would like to see how a season plays out where there are no 2-0 teams, or six 2-0 teams, but those aren't very likely to happen.

My "research" (looking quickly through the history) showed that of the 20 teams to start 2-0, 14 (70%) of them make the playoffs.  I don't want to jinx Brady, but the only time he has made the playoffs, he started 2-0 -- this might be the year he gets back in.  The 6 teams to miss the playoffs after starting 2-0 were Trevor (2016), Trevor (2013),  Kyle (2012), Chad (2011), Konner (2011), and Trevor (2010).  I learned two things from that list.  The first thing I learned is that we have gotten better over the years as a league. Four of the instances of teams missing the playoffs happened in the first 3 years of data/post-missions.  The second thing I learned is that Trevor has a hard time handling a good start as he accounts for half of the instances of people starting 2-0 and missing the playoffs.

I also looked at teams that start 0-2 to see how they do with making the playoffs.  Only 6 out of 20 of them make the playoffs.  There is a pretty good correlation of the 0-2's making it the year 2-0's don't but it's not perfect every year, so no need to despair quite yet if you started 0-2.  In 2013, two teams who started 0-2 played in the championship game.

We all know that the projections are garbage, but at least at the moment, no one is projected to win by more than 9 points.  So hopefully we get some close games this week and have a little bit more anxiety on Sunday night.

Saturday, August 26, 2017

Draft Recap

Here is the recap where I use footballguys.com to rank our teams -- this should be fun to see how we all did.   In order of the first analyst's opinion on our odds to make the playoffs if we have great in season management.

Rob (99) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=8hK87KQ9dUA7
TJ (90) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=LD989j836CvZ
Chad (85) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=yU37645Y9w39
Tyler (80) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=HQV57Es2Kj6w
Ren (80) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=i8V28DCHsyLa
Geoff (80) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=u4M44zIxteQx
Skyler  (75) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=3Z76k7BxZRyA
Brady (70) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=h7Xb7juDI555
Trevor (65) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=5ED6W62JKY85
Jordan (60) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=CBYe3tzrpZR2
Matt (60) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=QSj37sa82HyK
Kyle (60) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=4r4WvB9Is24a

Very interesting spread here.  I thought Rob had a really good draft, but not a 99 draft.  Who knows.  I also didn't think any of those 60's were that bad.  Only time will tell.

**Update**:  Here are team rankings from fantasypros.com.  There aren't any major changes, but still interesting to look at.


Sunday, December 11, 2016

First Round Down

You all suck.  I hate you.

I suppose I should write a real blog post.

This week's games became blowouts pretty quickly.  Sadly for TJ, Kyle's team was terrible, except for Le'Veon Bell.  I'm pretty sure the next time Bell gets high and gets in trouble, Kyle will be legally obligated to pay his fines and bail him out of jail.  The least Kyle could do is buy a Bell jersey

Not be lost in the Bell Bonanza, is the fact that Jordan has finally beat me.  In fairness, we never play each other in the regular season, so there haven't been many opportunities -- this was only the 4th time we played.  All good runs come to an end, and Jordan ended my run.  Actually, he lit me on fire, stomped me out, and then for good measure, spit on the ashes.  I suppose that's what happens when you bet big on the Bucs in the playoffs.

The news of the week is the glorious smack talk between me and Chad.  It was a pity you did not get to behold it.  Jordan can bear witness to the greatness of it all, though.  Some of it may not be suitable for a public audience so I won't post it here.  I did cross a line, and I'm not proud of it.  To insult Chad, I also had to insult BYU and praise Utah.  I apologize to anyone I may have hurt or offended in that ordeal.  It was wrong, and I should never have done it.  The worst part is I don't even get to play Chad next week.

Speaking of next week, it will be Chad against Jordan and Matt against Kyle.  If Jordan and Kyle win, it will be a West Division battle.  On the Chad/Jordan battle, I think Chad has the better team (evidenced by the records) but I think Jordan has the good schedule to pull off the upset -- especially if Julio ends up being healthy.  Though David Johnson could have a Le'Veon Bell type game against the Saints next week.

Matt and Kyle's game should be entertaining as well.  Matt is very heavy on the Cowboys and the Chargers.  The Cowboys will likely be playing angry next week, and against a Bucs team that isn't great.  The Chargers WR could get a lot of targets because they will probably be down to the Raiders, which would help Matt out.  However, I think Kyle will win.  Brees can't have 3 crappy games in a row, can he? After two games with no touchdowns, I imagine Brees will bounce back next week.  Le'Veon will probably be solid again, and Gurley will likely come back down to earth.  He is playing the Seahawks on Thursday night.

My order of who I want to see win the league in reverse order:
5) Kyle -- He is already on the trophy once, I don't want to see a repeat winner.

4) Jordan -- Also already on the trophy once, I don't want to see a repeat winner.  However, I would pick him over Kyle because he only half won his title.  Which leads us to --

3) Matt -- Didn't officially win the league, but he got Jordan his title, so he would kind of be like a repeat winner.  It's like he won somewhere between .25-.33 of a title.

2) Chad -- He is my rival, and I hate him, but he has never won, and he is in the North Division.  I want the trophy to stay in the North.  Plus it's sad that he has never won.  Like ever.  As in he has been to the championship twice and lost both times.  Once to Tyler, who no one respects as a fantasy owner (that's right Hukill insults are allowed too) by less than 5 points after Tyler already threw in the towel and thought he lost.  And Chad also lost to Konner.  The kid we put in the league to have 12 players.  Who started Andy Dalton in the championship.  The only person ever in the league Chad might be taller than.  Chad has lost 3 times in the playoffs to Aitkens.  That must suck.  Owned so much, by one family.  Also, Chad took last place in 2011.  So this would be a great comeback story.  After being a cellar dweller and then finally winning the championship, after your biggest playoff rival was taken out by someone else.  Such an inspiration, like and oscar winning story. I feel like in the movie of our league, I would be played by Matthew McConaughhey, and Chad would be played by Danny DeVito.  Also, I'm open to more suggestions of who plays who in the league movie. I have a few ideas, but whatever.

1) The Asteroid -- An asteroid comes to earth (hits Chad first by the way) and then wipes out all of humanity so no one else wins our league.

Well, that does it for tonight.  So to come full circle, you all suck, and I hate all of you.  I'm going to go wipe my tears and hold on to my fantasy championship rings as I try to sleep tonight.

Sunday, December 4, 2016

One Night, One Playoff Spot to Go.

Our league is loads of fun, so of course the last playoff spot has yet to be decided.  Chad has clinched the number one seed.  For the record, the North Division has been the regular season champion, or had the best regular season, or clinched the number one seed (whatever you want to call it), four years in a row now.  If Kyle loses (more on that later), Skyler would have the second best record, which would put the top two teams in the North Division.  Good thing Skyler doesn't get a bye week.

Speaking of bye weeks,  Kyle had a lead over Matt by just under 30 points.  If Kyle loses tomorrow, Matt will get the bye week because he outscored Matt this week by 33 points.  Those were some awkward sentences, but I think you get the idea.  That's not even the most exciting matchup.  If TJ wins over Kyle, he makes the playoffs.  If he loses, Rob will make the playoffs.  Tomorrow's game all comes down to Frank Gore scoring 6.8 points.  There are plenty of scenarios for that to happen, but it's basically a lock if Gore score's a touchdown.  He has only scored less that 6.8 once this year, and that was last week.  Odds are in TJ's favor, but you never know.  So if TJ wins, the first round match will be Kyle vs TJ, with the winner playing Matt.  If Kyle wins, it will be Rob vs Matt with the winner playing Kyle.  Of course, Brandon Marshall could score 35 and cause Matt to lose, but that's not realistic, so why bring it up?

The other side is pretty boring.  Chad has the bye week, Skyler and Jordan play each other next week for certain.  The Skyler vs Jordan matchup will be the 4th time they have met in the playoffs (which is interesting because they never play in the regular season).  It will be the third time that the winner of that game will move on to play Chad (2012, 2013).  It's like the great Yogi Berra said "It's Deja Vu all over again.  There will be more on this next week, but I just wanted to put it here for now.

Anyway, that's it for now.  Since tomorrow's game doesn't effect me at all, I don't really care all that much what happens.  I mostly hope it comes down to the last drive and that Gore only scores between 6.5-7.1.  I want it to be close and uncomfortable for all 4 guys who will be watching closely tomorrow.

Monday, November 28, 2016

One Week to Go

I will try and be as accurate as possible with the tie-breaker scenarios, but as that requires math with numbers that are still changing, some of the numbers will be off.  None of the outcomes of the games should change, so records will be accurate.

North:
Chad (9-3)
Skyler (8-4)
Brady (6-6)
Geoff (4-8)

South:
Matt (7-5)
Rob (6-6)
Trevor (5-7)
Ren (1-11)

West:
Kyle (8-4)
Jordan (7-5)
TJ (6-6)
Tyler (5-7)

Chad essentially has the #1 seed locked up.  Even if he loses next week, and Kyle and Skyler win, they would have to outscore him by so much that it's very unlikely.  Kyle scored so much this week over Jordan that he appears to have locked up the #2 seed and his division.  Even if he loses next week, and Jordan wins, Jordan would have to outscore him by 60 points to overtake him.  It's obviously not impossible since Kyle outscore Jordan by 75 this week, but I don't think it's likely to swing back that heavily towards Jordan.

Matt has also most likely won his division.  Matt has an 80 point lead over Rob, so Rob would have to win, Matt would have to lose, and Rob would have to outscore Matt by 80 points.  Again, not likely, so I'm saying Matt won the division.  Skyler has also locked up a playoff spot. With only 1 game to go, the only person who can tie/pass him that hasn't likely won his division is Jordan.

Speaking of Jordan, if he wins, he is in.  If he wins and Skyler loses, he can jump up to the 4th seed. If he loses, he could still get in, but it would depend on what the other 6-6 teams do.  If they all lost, he would still get the 5th seed. If they all won, and Jordan lost, TJ would definitely jump him, but Brady and Rob are behind him by 75-90 points -- so it would be hard for them to pass Jordan.

If one of the 6-6 teams wants to guarantee his spot, he needs to win, and have the other two 6-6 teams lose.  TJ is playing Kyle, so I give him a 50% chance to win. Rob is playing Ren, so I give him a 70% chance to win.  Brady plays Skyler and is without his best RB, so I only give him a 40% chance to win.  Obviously, what I think means 0%, so whatever.

Currently, the score difference is TJ is up about 116 over Rob, and Rob is up about 40 points ahead of Brady.  If it weren't for competition in the last week, TJ would have the best chance to make it.  Unfortunately for him Rob has next to a gimmee against Ren.

Well that's it for now.  It should be an interesting last week.