With only one week to go, we finally have some clarity. I will put more details down below, in the playoff section, but I say only some clarity because we only *know* one division winner, we have a greater than 99.999999999999999% idea of another, but we don't know their seedings, or the seedings of those who have already clinched qualification. We also have 4 people fighting for the last spot. The scenarios for that last spot are pretty cut and dry, but who knows how things will play out.
Game Recaps
Skyler vs Scott: The margin for victory in this game was 28.12, which made this the blowout of the week. After last week where we had multiple games of around 60 point margins, a much smaller blow out was much appreciated. In a different world, Scott starts Jeudy over Cooper, and wins by enough that it wouldn't even be the nail-biter of the week. Anyway, enough multiversal events of who could have won, let's get to what actually happened. Skyler won on the backs of only two 20+ point players (Daniels and McConkey), while Scott only had one (Harris). Skyler had 4 single digit players, while Scott also had 4 (if you include the DST in negative single digits). The loss eliminates Scott from playoff contention.
TJ vs Tyler: TJ was the leading scorer of the week, and Tyler was number 3, but the real story is Tyler taking himself out of the playoff race by not checking in time (Saturday Night/Sunday Morning) to start his first-round pick, the #2 pick overall, the #4 RB on the season, and the #5 RB/WR/TE on the season. This loss doesn't eliminate Tyler, but it takes him from the driver's seat for the last Wild Card spot, to the last spot, and needing a lot of help. TJ got the win no thanks to three 20+ point scorers (Burrow, Bowers, and the Cowboys DST), because Tyler actually had more with four of them (Lamar, Mixon, Dowdle, and Jonnu). A minor help to TJ was that he had fewer (2) single-digit scorers than Tyler (3). The win also came down to TJ having the only person over 30, and most of his double-digit, but non-20+ scorers getting in the high teens. This was easily the weekly bonanza.
Kyle vs Jordan: Kyle could have lost and not been eliminated, but it would have put him in a really tough spot. Thankfully for him, he got a narrow win over Jordan this week. They each had one person score 20+ this week (Kyle with Tyreek, and Jordan with Jacobs), and they each had 3 scoring single digits. In a 6-point win, there likely won't be any clear reasons for victory, and that's the case here. The loss for Jordan takes him out of the driver's seat for the division and the bye week, but he's currently in shotgun and he can grab the wheel pretty easily while TJ is driving.
Matt vs Brandon: Matt needed a win to lock up the division from a surging Trevor, and he got it this week. This was the second biggest blowout of the week, which says more about Brandon than Matt as Matt was the 3 lowest scorer of the week. Matt and Brandon both had two 20+ scorers this week (Matt - Goff and Chase, Brandon - Achane and Allen). Matt had 4 players in single digits while Brandon had 5 -- the big difference there though is that all of Matt's single-digit players were >5, while all of Brandon's were <=5. The loss officially eliminated Brandon. With their joint low scores, this was the battle of ineptitude.
Trevor vs Rob: A win by Rob would have put Rob and Trevor in great spots to both make the playoffs, but they still could have theoretically been knocked out. A win by Trevor would clinch a spot for him and would put Rob in a much tougher spot (though still in the driver's seat). Thankfully for the Yle's, Trevor won. This was the nail-biter of the week as it was decided by less than 2 points, and adding to the fun of the game was that there was a 49er player on each team on SNF. They each had a 20+ point scorer (Rob had Darnold, and Trevor had McBride). Trevor had more single-digit scorers than Rob (4 to 3). The difference in this game didn't really even come down to Trevor's double-digit scorers doing more as I think Rob's were slightly better. In a game this tight, you can say anything was the reason, so I'll give up trying to find something obvious.
Tommy vs Brady: With a difference of 16 this was the 3rd biggest blowout or the 4th closest game -- I'll let you all decide how you want to spin the narrative. Brady was the 2nd highest scorer, while Tommy was the 4th highest scorer. Brady had two people go for 20+ (Allen and Evans), while Tommy only had one (McLaurin). Brady only had one person score single digits, while Tommy had two. The play of the night was the Hook and Ladder to Allen, which made sure he got the Receiving TD and the Passing TD.
Award Season
MVP: In the closest games, no one had a player who scored a season-high. At best it was their 2nd best game of the season. So we'll give it to Tyreek for breaking 20 points for the first time since week 1 in a game Kyle was desperate to win.
LVP: I want to give this to Demario Douglas for not being Bijan, but I feel like I've piled onto Tyler enough already. So let's give it to Jahmyr Gibbs who had his lowest-scoring game of the season and fumbled at the 6-yard line
Luckiest Team of the Week: The award will be split this week. Matt won despite being the 10th-highest scorer, and TJ won thanks to Tyler being checked out.
Unluckiest Team of the Week: Based on the above, you would think I might split this, but Tyler brought it on himself and will not win this award. So it will all go to Tommy -- I'm sure it is making him feel so much better.
Highest Scoring Team of the Week: TJ is back to sitting on top after this week.
Lowest Scoring Team of the Week: Brandon had a rough week and 'wins' the award.
King of the Court: TJ gets the crown back after a few weeks of not having it.
Game Previews
Skyler (8) vs Brady (5): Skyler has 1 player on Thursday and 1 player in primetime. He has 1 player on bye. Brady has 2 players on Thursday and 1 player in primetime. He has 1 player on bye.
Kyle (7) vs TJ (1): Kyle has 0 players on Thursday and 1 player in primetime. He has 1 player on bye. TJ has 0 players on Thursday and 1 player in primetime. He has 1 player on bye.
Tyler (9) vs Jordan (2): Tyler has 0 players on Thursday and 2 players in primetime. He has 0 players on bye. Jordan has 1 player on Thursday and 2 players in primetime. He has 0 players on bye.
Tommy (12) vs Scott (11): Tommy has 0 players on Thursday and 1 player in primetime. He has 5 players on bye. Scott has 0 players on Thursday and 1 player in primetime. He has 1 player on bye.
Brandon (10) vs Rob (6): Brandon has 0 players on Thursday and 1 player in primetime. He has 2 players on bye. Rob has 1 player on Thursday and 2 players in primetime. He has 0 players on bye.
Trevor (4) vs Matt (3): Trevor has 1 player on Thursday and 1 player in primetime. He has 1 players on bye. Matt has 2 players on Thursday and 3 players in primetime. He has 0 players on bye.
Playoff Scenarios
1 Seed - If Matt wins and both TJ and Jordan lose, he is the 1 seed. If either TJ or Jordan win, Matt is likely the 2 seed due to tiebreaker. If TJ wins, he is likely the 1 seed due to tiebreaker. If Jordan wins, and Matt and TJ lose, Jordan would be the 1 seed.
2 Seed - If Jordan and/or TJ win, Matt is the 2 seed. If they all lose, Matt is the 2 seed. If Matt wins, and TJ and Jordan lose, TJ is the 2 seed.
3 Seed - The system will put the North winner will be put here by the system, but due to our recent rule changes, Jordan or TJ will be here, and I will move them manually. If one of them wins while the other loses, the loser will be here. If they both win, or both lose, odds are that TJ will be here. Jordan is only behind TJ by 40ish points, so in theory he could pass TJ if they have the same result, but it's not likely.
4 Seed - If Trevor wins, he is the 4 seed. If Trevor loses and Brady wins, Brady is the 4 see (unless Trevor were to somehow outscore Brady in that scenario, in which case Trevor would be 4).
5 Seed - If Trevor wins and Brady wins, Brady is the 5 seed. If Trevor loses and Brady wins, Trevor is the 5 seed. If Brady loses and Rob, Kyle, or Skyler win, and they manage to outscore Brady by 60, 125, or 205 points respectively, that person would be the 5 seed.
6 Seed - (Ignoring tiebreakers for a second) If Rob wins, Rob is the 6 seed. If Rob loses and Kyle wins, Kyle is the 6 seed. If Rob and Kyle lose and Skyler wins, Skyler is the 6 seed. If Rob, Kyle, and Skyler all lose, and Tyler wins, Rob is the 6 seed (though Tyler could catch Rob on tiebreaker as he is only back 20ish points). Skyler is 85 points behind Kyle, Kyle is 60 points behind Rob, so expecting them to catch on the points tiebreaker is very unlikely.
My predictions - (Mostly based on projections) 1 TJ, 2 Matt, 3 Jordan, 4 Trevor, 5 Brady, 6 Rob.
Good luck to everyone but Brady, Rob, and Kyle this week.
No comments:
Post a Comment