Week 16: Semi Final Madness

FantasyPros gave Matt a 51% chance of winning and Rob a 75%, which meant Brady had a 49% chance of winning, and Skyler 25%.  Based on the above numbers, the combined result we got over the weekend had a 12.25% of actually happening.

Game Recaps

Skyler (5) vs Rob (1): This game was the bonanza, the nail-biter, and the Monday Nightmare/Miracle. This game was less than a point away from combining for 300 points, and the separation between the two was less than 7 points. Each team had 4 people in the 20-point club (no 30-point explosions).  Skyler had only 2 people in the single-digit club, and Rob had 3, which certainly helped Skyler, but the biggest issue for Rob was that his Kicker and DST combined for 4 points, while Skyler's combined for 26.  Skyler's Monday Night trio combined for just under 51 points to complete the comeback and punch his ticket to the championship.

Brady (2) vs Matt (3): This game was supposed to be tighter, and of the two playoff games, this was technically the battle of ineptitude and the blowout of the week; however, given that the difference in the scores was still single digits, and the combined score was over 256, this game was not worth of those negative accolades. Both teams were affected by injury, with Matt losing Pacheco and Waddle during the game, and Brady losing Dontayvion "John 'Baba Yaga' Wick" Wicks. Both teams had two players in the 20-point club.  Brady had 4 people in the single-digit club, while Matt only had 2 in the single-digit.  The closeness might make more sense if we look at the 11-point cutoff, as they both had 5 people in that club. In the end, there is no clear-cut reason why Brady won, other than small 1-2 point advantages across the board.

Lucky: With 10 championships between these guys, no one will be called lucky this week.

Unlucky: Rob will win this award given that he was the Highest-scoring team this season, had the highest raw point total ever in a season, was the number 1 seed, and was the second highest-scoring team of the week.

MVP: There are a lot of candidates here, but no single standout player.  Several players had top 2-3 performances for the season at the right time.

LVP: Ignoring injuries -- the LVP will go to Butker and the Packers DST for scoring their season-low totals at the wrong time.

Highest Scorer: Skyler

Lowest Scorer: Matt

King of the Court: Brady takes it from Matt in the second to last week

Game Preview

Skyler (5) vs Brady (2): Let's be honest, no one cares about this week outside of Brady and Skyler.  Skyler winning his 5th would suck and Brady taking second in total championships with 3 would suck.  If there was an underdog who had never won before that people could rally behind, more of the league would care.

Skyler has 1 player on Thursday night, 0 players on Saturday night, 0 players on Sunday afternoon, and 1 player on Sunday Night Football. Brady has 0 players on Thursday night, 1 player on Saturday night, 2 players on Sunday afternoon, and 0 players on Sunday Night.

This is the first division matchup in a championship game, and as such, has the most played games and history between 2 teams.  For this season, Skyler went 2-0 head-to-head against Brady, but Brady would lead the season series 9-6 (that includes week 16 when both had a meaningful game, but not week 15 when Brady was on a bye and didn't start anyone). Lifetime, their head-to-head regular season record is 15 wins for Skyler and 13 wins for Brady. They have played each other twice in the playoffs, both having gone 1-1 (lifetime 16-14 for Skyler in meaningful games). Brady won their first playoff matchup (semi-finals) in 2018 -- the year he won the championship.  Skyler got revenge in 2021 in their playoff matchup (semi-finals) -- which was also the year he won a championship.  It seems fitting that the playoff tiebreaker will happen in the championship this year. 

Skyler is currently on a 2-game-win streak against Brady and is looking for his third 3+ game winning streak. Brady also has two 3 game-winning streaks against Skyler. 2023 was the 5th time Skyler swept the regular season against Brady. Brady has swept the regular season series against Skyler 4 times.  Only once have they met in the playoffs after a team swept the regular season.  Skyler swept in the 2018 regular season only for Brady to win when it really mattered.

Skyler is 4-0 in championship games, while Brady is 2-1 in championship games. Both teams have won 1 championship in the 2020s (Skyler 2021, Brady 2020), so whoever wins this will be the first team with 2 championships this decade, and will be the front-runner for the team of the half-decade (2010-2014, Skyler had 2 championships. 2015-2019 Rob had two championships. 2020-present, Brady and Skyler each have one)

This matchup is pretty even on weekly rankings.  For example, Josh Allen is ranked 3 on fantasy pros, and Lamar is ranked 4. They also have the top two kickers. Where the difference will likely come is on the bigger differences at RB, WR, TE, and DST.  As of this writing, both teams are starting 2 RB and 3 WR.  Given that balance, we will keep the analysis that way and not break out the flex separately.  According to FantasyPros, Brady's combined RB rank is at 22 while Skyler's rank is at 43.  At WR, Brady's combined rank is at 49, while Skyler's is at 28. Skyler's TE is 2 and Brady's is at 10.  Skyler's DST is 1, and Brady's is 8.  Those gaps aren't nothing for the TE and DST, but those positions usually don't put up a lot of points. The NFL projections have Skyler winning by 5-6, and the FantasyPros analysis has him winning at a 60% chance.  The projections seem reasonable given how close all the rankings are, but FantasyPros seems way too skewed. 

The last game of the week is Packers vs Vikings.  Skyler has 1 starter and 1 on the bench from that game, while Brady currently has 0 starters and 2 on the bench for that game.  If something happens midweek, perhaps those bench players get called up and make Sunday Night a little more exciting, but the odds are Skyler will be watching with a deficit and will be hoping whatever QB starts only targets JJ, while Brady will be watching with a lead, and hopes that the QB sucks and JJ is triple covered or gets hurt.  It should be for an intense night and someone is going to have a terrible New Year's Eve.

Best of luck to everyone in the consolation, or in the main playoff bracket except Brady.

Weeks 13, 14 and 15 (Playoffs Round 1)

My apologies for the lack of writing again.  Below is a quick summary of the weeks that passed, some first-round playoff information that isn't as relevant, but still may be interesting, and a semi-final preview.

Round 1 Playoff History

It’s obviously a bit late to do a playoff preview since the first round is over. So I’ll provide some context around the teams, their playoff history, and how shocked we should or shouldn’t be about the results.

Of the 6 teams in the playoffs, Skyler, Rob, and Tommy are all back in after taking a 1-year break. TJ and Matt have been to the playoffs in back-to-back years, and this is Brady’s 4th consecutive year, which as far as I can tell, ties Jordan's and Ren’s runs (2011-2014) for the third most consecutive appearances. Chad had a 5-year run (2012-2016), and the record for consecutive playoff appearances is Skyler at 7 (2010-2016).

For the matchups that occurred, TJ was 1-0 over Skyler this season and Matt was 1-0 against Tommy.  TJ would have been 9-5 over Skyler had they only played each other every week this season. Matt would have been 8-6 over Tommy had they only played each other every week this season.

For posterity's sake (aka the NFL website goes down and we need a backup history of what happened), Skyler beat TJ in the blowout and the battle of ineptitude, and Matt beat Tommy in the bonanza, the nailbiter, and the Monday Nightmare/Miracle.

Matt remains King of the Court, and was the highest scorer of the week, the MVP is CMC, and the LVP is Jamar Chase, which feels dirty because he got hurt.  Unlucky was Tommy, and lucky was Skyler. Matt is the highest-scoring team, and TJ is the lowest-scoring team.

Semi-Finals Preview

Back in the spring of 2022, we had a March Madness Final 4 of Duke, UNC, Kansas, and Villanova.  It was considered the first Final 4 of historical college basketball blue bloods.  This year, our Final 4 is made up of our league’s blue bloods since the 4 teams remaining are the only teams that have multiple championships.  Each team has at least 2 championships, and the 4 teams combine for 10 championships, with an 11th coming in 13 days.  This is our ‘Jeopardy! The Greatest of All Time', but instead of Alex Trebek, Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer, we have Skyler, Rob, Brady, and Matt. Skyler can create the 5 Times club or one of Rob/Brady/Matt can join the 3 Times club.  Matt could also join the back-to-back club.

As far as appearances in the Final 4 (including 2023), Skyler has 9, Brady has 6, and Rob and Matt each have 5. Fun Brady fact – in 2016, Skyler had 6 appearances, Rob and Matt each had 2, and Brady had 0. Brady has made the semi’s 6 of the last 7 years, which is an incredible run. Brady, Rob, and Matt each have a winning record in the semi-finals, while Skyler only has a .500 record.  In raw numbers, Brady has lost twice (5 previous appearances), and Matt and Rob have only lost once (4 previous appearances).  Skyler has lost 4 times (8 previous appearances). If Brady, Rob, or Matt lose, they will move down to .500, and if Skyler loses, he will have a losing record in the semi-finals.

Two of the final teams remaining are from the North division, and two are from the South division. Depending on how things turn out, we could have our first championship game where both teams are from the same division. FantasyPros currently has the South teams as the favorites in both games (Rob at 75% chance to win and Matt at 51%). If both Matt and Rob win, this would be only the 3rd time in recorded history that the North didn’t have a representative in the championship (2022 and 2019).  If both Skyler and Brady win, it would be the 6th time (2021, 2015, 2013, 2012, 2010) a team from the South didn’t play in the championship.  

With the West eliminated, they will continue their streak of not having a champion since Tyler won it all in 2013 – a streak that is now 10 years old.  My math might be wrong, but I believe Bella is the oldest kid of the league members, and I believe she was born in the summer of 2013, and Jackson was born in late summer/early fall.  Again, my math might be wrong, but as a league, we have over 30 kids, and the last time a team in the West won a championship, we had a combined 2 kids, and they were only a few months old. Anyway, the West has missed the championship 7 times (2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2023).

For the matchups that occurred this year, Rob was 1-0 over Skyler this season and Brady was 1-0 against Matt.  Rob would have been 10-4 over Skyler had they only played each other every week this season. Matt and Brady would each be 7-7 had they only played each other every week this season. The regular season lifetime record between Skyler and Rob is 9 wins for Skyler and 5 wins for Rob. Skyler has beaten Rob once in the playoffs, and Rob has beaten Skyler once in the consolation.  They had no other postseason matchups from what I could tell.  Matt and Brady never played in the regular season until 2021 – since that schedule expansion, Brady has 2 wins and Matt has 1 in the regular season. Brady has beaten Matt once in the playoffs, and Matt has beaten Brady once in the consolation.  They had no other postseason matchups from what I could tell.

Game Previews

Skyler vs Rob: Skyler has 0 players on Thursday, 0 players on Saturday, 0 players on Sunday Night Football, and 4 players on Monday (Christmas Day). Rob is busy playing games with his lineup, but he could realistically start 1 player on Thursday, 2 players on Saturday, 0 players on Sunday Night Football, and 3 players on Monday (Christmas Day).

Matt vs Brady: Matt has 1 player on Thursday, 0 players on Saturday, 0 players on Sunday Night Football, and 4 players on Monday (Christmas Day). Brady has 0 players on Thursday, 3-4 players on Saturday, 0 players on Sunday Night Football, and 0-1 Players on Monday (Christmas Day).

Best of luck to everyone not named Rob.