FantasyPros gave Matt a 51% chance of winning and Rob a 75%, which meant Brady had a 49% chance of winning, and Skyler 25%. Based on the above numbers, the combined result we got over the weekend had a 12.25% of actually happening.
Game Recaps
Skyler (5) vs Rob (1): This game was the bonanza, the nail-biter, and the Monday Nightmare/Miracle. This game was less than a point away from combining for 300 points, and the separation between the two was less than 7 points. Each team had 4 people in the 20-point club (no 30-point explosions). Skyler had only 2 people in the single-digit club, and Rob had 3, which certainly helped Skyler, but the biggest issue for Rob was that his Kicker and DST combined for 4 points, while Skyler's combined for 26. Skyler's Monday Night trio combined for just under 51 points to complete the comeback and punch his ticket to the championship.
Brady (2) vs Matt (3): This game was supposed to be tighter, and of the two playoff games, this was technically the battle of ineptitude and the blowout of the week; however, given that the difference in the scores was still single digits, and the combined score was over 256, this game was not worth of those negative accolades. Both teams were affected by injury, with Matt losing Pacheco and Waddle during the game, and Brady losing Dontayvion "John 'Baba Yaga' Wick" Wicks. Both teams had two players in the 20-point club. Brady had 4 people in the single-digit club, while Matt only had 2 in the single-digit. The closeness might make more sense if we look at the 11-point cutoff, as they both had 5 people in that club. In the end, there is no clear-cut reason why Brady won, other than small 1-2 point advantages across the board.
Lucky: With 10 championships between these guys, no one will be called lucky this week.
Unlucky: Rob will win this award given that he was the Highest-scoring team this season, had the highest raw point total ever in a season, was the number 1 seed, and was the second highest-scoring team of the week.
MVP: There are a lot of candidates here, but no single standout player. Several players had top 2-3 performances for the season at the right time.
LVP: Ignoring injuries -- the LVP will go to Butker and the Packers DST for scoring their season-low totals at the wrong time.
Highest Scorer: Skyler
Lowest Scorer: Matt
King of the Court: Brady takes it from Matt in the second to last week
Game Preview
Skyler (5) vs Brady (2): Let's be honest, no one cares about this week outside of Brady and Skyler. Skyler winning his 5th would suck and Brady taking second in total championships with 3 would suck. If there was an underdog who had never won before that people could rally behind, more of the league would care.
Skyler has 1 player on Thursday night, 0 players on Saturday night, 0 players on Sunday afternoon, and 1 player on Sunday Night Football. Brady has 0 players on Thursday night, 1 player on Saturday night, 2 players on Sunday afternoon, and 0 players on Sunday Night.
This is the first division matchup in a championship game, and as such, has the most played games and history between 2 teams. For this season, Skyler went 2-0 head-to-head against Brady, but Brady would lead the season series 9-6 (that includes week 16 when both had a meaningful game, but not week 15 when Brady was on a bye and didn't start anyone). Lifetime, their head-to-head regular season record is 15 wins for Skyler and 13 wins for Brady. They have played each other twice in the playoffs, both having gone 1-1 (lifetime 16-14 for Skyler in meaningful games). Brady won their first playoff matchup (semi-finals) in 2018 -- the year he won the championship. Skyler got revenge in 2021 in their playoff matchup (semi-finals) -- which was also the year he won a championship. It seems fitting that the playoff tiebreaker will happen in the championship this year.
Skyler is currently on a 2-game-win streak against Brady and is looking for his third 3+ game winning streak. Brady also has two 3 game-winning streaks against Skyler. 2023 was the 5th time Skyler swept the regular season against Brady. Brady has swept the regular season series against Skyler 4 times. Only once have they met in the playoffs after a team swept the regular season. Skyler swept in the 2018 regular season only for Brady to win when it really mattered.
Skyler is 4-0 in championship games, while Brady is 2-1 in championship games. Both teams have won 1 championship in the 2020s (Skyler 2021, Brady 2020), so whoever wins this will be the first team with 2 championships this decade, and will be the front-runner for the team of the half-decade (2010-2014, Skyler had 2 championships. 2015-2019 Rob had two championships. 2020-present, Brady and Skyler each have one)
This matchup is pretty even on weekly rankings. For example, Josh Allen is ranked 3 on fantasy pros, and Lamar is ranked 4. They also have the top two kickers. Where the difference will likely come is on the bigger differences at RB, WR, TE, and DST. As of this writing, both teams are starting 2 RB and 3 WR. Given that balance, we will keep the analysis that way and not break out the flex separately. According to FantasyPros, Brady's combined RB rank is at 22 while Skyler's rank is at 43. At WR, Brady's combined rank is at 49, while Skyler's is at 28. Skyler's TE is 2 and Brady's is at 10. Skyler's DST is 1, and Brady's is 8. Those gaps aren't nothing for the TE and DST, but those positions usually don't put up a lot of points. The NFL projections have Skyler winning by 5-6, and the FantasyPros analysis has him winning at a 60% chance. The projections seem reasonable given how close all the rankings are, but FantasyPros seems way too skewed.
The last game of the week is Packers vs Vikings. Skyler has 1 starter and 1 on the bench from that game, while Brady currently has 0 starters and 2 on the bench for that game. If something happens midweek, perhaps those bench players get called up and make Sunday Night a little more exciting, but the odds are Skyler will be watching with a deficit and will be hoping whatever QB starts only targets JJ, while Brady will be watching with a lead, and hopes that the QB sucks and JJ is triple covered or gets hurt. It should be for an intense night and someone is going to have a terrible New Year's Eve.
Best of luck to everyone in the consolation, or in the main playoff bracket except Brady.
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