Monday, November 25, 2013

Going into the last week

Let’s get to the obvious.  Rob, Geoff, Koko and Trevor are out.  What I’m about to say isn’t 100% certain.  I mean there is always the chance Jordan wins, Ren wins, and Jordan outscores Ren by 270 points, but it’s not likely. If there is a chance points come into play, I’ll let you know.  Otherwise, someone has a better record, or is leading by like 70 points and should be safe.
Win or lose, chad has a bye.  Ren has a bye if he wins, or Jordan loses.  Jordan has a bye if he wins and Ren loses.  The winner of Jordan and Tyler will win the division. If Jordan wins he has the better record, if Tyler wins, they have the same record and Tyler wins on points. Jordan is in the playoffs no matter what.

Now to the gray areas.  Of the teams with 7 or less wins, I’m leading Hukill by 40, who leads matt by 20, who leads brady by 7, who leads kyle by 40.  Check the standings on Tuesday, or the table at the bottom of the post for point/standing breakdown. 
If Matt or Kyle lose, they are out.  Winner of Brady/Skyler is guaranteed in.  I have a decent enough of a lead in points, that I should get in even if I lose next week, as long as my team doesn’t score an all-time low of like 70. 
If Hukill wins, the last playoff spot will be battled out by the loser of Skyler/Brady, Matt and Kyle (assuming they both win).  I have a 60 pt lead on Matt, and 107 on kyle, so I’m in a solid position even if I lose.  Brady on the other hand is down 7 on Matt and up 40 on Kyle, so that would come down to how much he scores vs how much Matt scores for a playoff spot.  Matt should be cheering for him to win, brady to lose, and tyler to lose just to be safe. 20 points behind hukill can be recovered in one week.

I feel like most everything can be deciphered from there, but I’ll break down the last 5 people real quick in best and worst case scenario (both within the realm of possibility…there will be no predictions of 60 point losses or anything.

Skyler: Best – win and in.  Worst – lose, everyone else win, likely beat matt and kyle by points tiebreaker.

Hukill: Best – win and get division title (but no shot at a bye). Worst – he loses, brady wins, and matt outscores him by 20, while he doesn’t outscore me by 40.  That happens and he’s out. Or brady could lose instead of me, but outscore hukill by 25.  He would also be out.

Brady: Best – win and in.  Worst – lose and have matt win, while not outscoring matt by more than 7 points.  That happens and he’s out…and/or kyle win and kyle outscores him by 40.
Matt: Best – win, Brady lose, Tyler lose.  He then ties them on record, and if he outscored hukill by 20, while staying ahead of brady in points, could take the 5th seed.  Worst – Lose and he’s out.

Kyle: Best – win, Matt lose, Tyler lose, Brady lose.  He would pass matt in record, and then he would have to outscore brady by 40 and Hukill by 65 to claim the 5th seed, and outscore only one of them for the 6th seed.  It’s very unlikely Kyle makes it.  Worst – lose and out.
That’s it.  Here is the table of the teams, their wins, and their points.

I am Batman
El Gordo
P- Town
Hit Squad

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Two Weeks Left

So due to the predictions of one team and his ability to make the playoffs, I decided to write a new playoffs scenario.  Also, at the bottom I am going to include some possible rule changes, format changes, site changes, and owner changes.

So the standings changed.  Some of my predictions happened, some didn’t. Some of my predictions were based on what I wanted to see happen, so I shouldn’t be shocked that I got them wrong.  Unless Ren falls apart and loses out, he will have a bye – just on sheer points.

Chad won.  That makes me mad.  I needed him to lose to have a shot at the division title. This is a big week for both of us.  I have to win by about 80 points to really have a tie going into the last week, but that’s not going to happen.  He will win the division as long as he doesn’t lose both games.

I’m no lock to make the playoffs, so beating chad would make sure I get in, as well as give me a chance at the division title.  Fortunately for me, Jordan plays Kyle this week.  If I lose and Jordan loses, then I’m tied record wise with Jordan and Kyle going into the last week. If kyle loses, that will keep me a game ahead of him no matter what.

Brady also has a big week against Geoff, he is projected for a nice big win, which will help keep him in the playoff hunt now that he has the same record as Tyler and Kyle.

I know already mentioned Kyle vs. Jordan, but a win for Jordan will keep him ahead for the division race. I’ll get to this later, but it’s likely that the South division will only have Ren in the playoffs, and Chad is most likely in. So winning your division keeps you from the elimination bubble.  If Kyle wins (by more than 6.64 points), he will pass Jordan in the rankings.

I’m not sure what to say about Hukill.  I thought he was the surging team (he still could be), but Koko has the highest current win streak (tied with chad) and could be the surging team. While he can’t catch anyone with 7+ wins, he could catch anyone with 6 if they lose out.  He needs Jordan to win his games to keep Kyle and Tyler at 6 wins.  That would put Chad, Skyler, Ren, and Jordan ahead of him, with Brady Kyle, and Tyler all at 6 wins (not likely, but it could happen). 

If the above scenario happens, BHers and Native Americans could still be in the hunt as well.  If Trevor wins out, he will have 6 wins.  That would be 1 more loss to Matt, but if he beat Ren this week, he would also end at 6 wins.  I think it’s all very unlikely, but if 6 teams ended at 6-7, it would then come down to total points, which I’m not going to guess because that’s even harder to get than wins.

Rob and Geoff, I’m sorry.  Better luck next year.  You can play spoiler to some other teams though.  In fact, I need Geoff to win out if I want a small chance to win my division.  Well, I think that’s everyone.  Now to the changes that could happen next year.

So there have been some keeper complaints: should we be able trade them and then keep them, should we be able to keep waiver wire pickups, should we get rid of keepers all together?  I’m ok with whatever.  Honestly, I’m all up for what is best for the league.  You can argue thinking long term is good for the league or playing in the moment is good for the league, and both have valid points.  I just ask that people be objective in their view of the rules. I don’t like how one year keepers are bad, but then the next year it’s great because you have a great keeper. So try and be reasonable. But it appears something needs to change.

One of the arguments for removing keepers is that it puts more skill and importance on draft day, which is everyone’s favorite day anyways.  My only issue with that, is it makes draft day longer, and sometimes we all take too long, or aren’t prepared, and 2-3 extra rounds would make that longer.  You can argue that’s good or bad, but it’s another way to think of keepers changing our favorite day of the year.

Tanking – it happens.  I have minimal issue with what Rob is doing because he is trying to build for next year, and it’s in the rules – I do hate that he is trading with people in my division, but that’s just me being biased and subjective.  However, I don’t want people giving up and not worrying about this year.  Plus now Rob has great keepers and has the inside track to next year’s 1st overall pick.  Obviously, we can’t change this for next draft, because it’s unfair, but what if we have the winner of the consolation bracket get the 1st overall pick? That way people still try all year long.  Other options would be to make the trade deadline earlier (that could be fine), or expand the playoffs to 8 teams. 

I will say straight up, I don’t like expanding the playoffs.  Sure, more people get in and will try harder, but that makes most of the regular season worthless.  The year I won it all, we had several teams with losing records in the playoffs.  If we expanded to 8 teams, how many teams would make it that wouldn’t really earn it? Plus, that 8 seed could upset the 1 seed in the first round.  There isn’t a benefit on seeding (because there is no bye week), the benefit is in the schedule and match-ups.  That is my opinion on expanding the playoffs.

Other changes could be to change tie-breakers. I feel like basing it on record and then points is probably the most accurate representation of someone’s season.  However, if we wanted to make tie-breakers based on head-to-head results to make individual games matter just a little bit more, I’m ok with that.  It would change things to some degree.  I believe the year I won, had we gone to head to head tie-breakers, Brady would have made it ahead of me, I would have moved down to the 6 seed, and Ren would have been eliminated.  I don’t think I would have won that year. So there’s something to think about.

I was thinking there is the possibility of putting the divisions up to 4, with 3 teams each.  That way we could play each division team twice (4 total) plus the other 9 teams (13 games total now) and still have the playoffs go from weeks 14-16.  It’s not great, but it could fit with some of the rule changes (like if we wanted to expand playoffs). Part of the reason I suggest that is because there is one opponent we don’t play every year, and this would change that.

Geoff mentioned switching to ESPN.  I have no issues with that, but I don’t know everyone else’s feelings.  My only concern is having to get everyone to adjust to the new page.

So Konner will be going on a mission at some point, and we will need to replace him.  If we stick with our “tradition” theme we often go with, we should probably have my brother Logan replace him or Tommy Leavitt, since they were both original members of the league in 2006.  However, if we want to find someone else, or widen the pool, we need to find a way to do that.  I was thinking start up a minor league.  We won’t drop anyone down to it, but we have enough interest that we could start up the minor league, and the winner can move up to replace Konner.  Plus we have a pool of replacements if anyone quits, dies, or sucks too much.

Please comment on any of the possible changes.  Feedback is always encouraged. To encourage more feedback, I was thinking of creating a competition committee of 3-5 members that can go over rules and make rule changes.  So let me know what you think of that as well.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Fantasy Football Musings

So in all reality, there are too many weeks left to really analyze playoff scenarios.  There are so many what if's that it's hard to go over every scenario.  So here are the most likely scenarios, based on projections, my gut, and past performances.  Not a lot of player projections though.  So anyways, here we go.  To access the league page click here.

Things I hope: That I win it all again.  Ok, now to the real stuff.

Things I know:

1 - Ren has wrapped up his division.  He has a 4 game lead over Matt (who is number 2 in the division) with only 3 games left.

2 - Rob is out of the playoffs. Other out of the playoffs that will likely happen: Geoff, Koko, Trevor.  Here is why.  At 3 wins, they cannot catch Ren, Chad, Jordan, or the winner of Skyler/Brady (or both if we tied that game) even if those people lose out.  They would then be tied record wise with the loser of Skyler/Brady and Kyle (if those people lose out) and would then depend on points for the tiebreaker.  However, counting on people to lose out or win out is a tall order.

3 - So to make a visual of that last point, Jordan, Ren, Chad and winner of Skyler/Brady's week 13 game will end with 7 wins minimum (Ren already has more, and Jordan and Chad will likely win one of the next three to end with more than 7 wins).  So if you want a shot of getting into the playoffs, you need to get to 7 wins. 8 wins to make a strong case. 9 Guarantees it. 6 teams could get to 9 wins if everything bounces there way.  But really only 5 have a shot since Brady and Skyler can't both get to 9 wins...also, it is a big if for all of those teams to get to 9 wins.

4 - My division will be crazy if Brady beats Chad and I beat Geoff.  The top 3 teams will be 7-4.  That could be fun.

Things I will speculate on:

1 - Geoff, you are my bro, and if I had to suit up and go to McLaren's with anyone from this league, it would be you. However, I think I beat you this week.  The projection will likely change when you update your roster, but still.  I want to believe I will win.  As this is my blog, I can do that. Plus it makes #4 up above possible.

2 - Jordan loses to Koko this week. And maybe to Kyle next week.  I'm sorry, but I just don't love Ryan, Ridley, Richardson or Wallace.

3 - Hukill could go on a run. He has some really good running backs, and I don't like it. I'm glad I don't play him again during the regular season.  Speaking of scary, chad with megatron and CJ2K's scares me.

4 - T Rich is getting so many dump off passes this game, I hate him less than when I speculated on number 2.

5 - I don't think Matt makes the playoffs.  He needs to win out to get to 7 wins, and that just isn't a good scenario to be in.  He has to play Ren, and I already mentioned 4 other guys that will get to 7 wins (or more)

Well that's it. I don't want to speculate anymore or else I'll be up all night.  I'll try and write throughout the next two weeks once we know more.