Monday, November 25, 2013

Going into the last week

Let’s get to the obvious.  Rob, Geoff, Koko and Trevor are out.  What I’m about to say isn’t 100% certain.  I mean there is always the chance Jordan wins, Ren wins, and Jordan outscores Ren by 270 points, but it’s not likely. If there is a chance points come into play, I’ll let you know.  Otherwise, someone has a better record, or is leading by like 70 points and should be safe.
Win or lose, chad has a bye.  Ren has a bye if he wins, or Jordan loses.  Jordan has a bye if he wins and Ren loses.  The winner of Jordan and Tyler will win the division. If Jordan wins he has the better record, if Tyler wins, they have the same record and Tyler wins on points. Jordan is in the playoffs no matter what.

Now to the gray areas.  Of the teams with 7 or less wins, I’m leading Hukill by 40, who leads matt by 20, who leads brady by 7, who leads kyle by 40.  Check the standings on Tuesday, or the table at the bottom of the post for point/standing breakdown. 
If Matt or Kyle lose, they are out.  Winner of Brady/Skyler is guaranteed in.  I have a decent enough of a lead in points, that I should get in even if I lose next week, as long as my team doesn’t score an all-time low of like 70. 
If Hukill wins, the last playoff spot will be battled out by the loser of Skyler/Brady, Matt and Kyle (assuming they both win).  I have a 60 pt lead on Matt, and 107 on kyle, so I’m in a solid position even if I lose.  Brady on the other hand is down 7 on Matt and up 40 on Kyle, so that would come down to how much he scores vs how much Matt scores for a playoff spot.  Matt should be cheering for him to win, brady to lose, and tyler to lose just to be safe. 20 points behind hukill can be recovered in one week.

I feel like most everything can be deciphered from there, but I’ll break down the last 5 people real quick in best and worst case scenario (both within the realm of possibility…there will be no predictions of 60 point losses or anything.

Skyler: Best – win and in.  Worst – lose, everyone else win, likely beat matt and kyle by points tiebreaker.

Hukill: Best – win and get division title (but no shot at a bye). Worst – he loses, brady wins, and matt outscores him by 20, while he doesn’t outscore me by 40.  That happens and he’s out. Or brady could lose instead of me, but outscore hukill by 25.  He would also be out.

Brady: Best – win and in.  Worst – lose and have matt win, while not outscoring matt by more than 7 points.  That happens and he’s out…and/or kyle win and kyle outscores him by 40.
Matt: Best – win, Brady lose, Tyler lose.  He then ties them on record, and if he outscored hukill by 20, while staying ahead of brady in points, could take the 5th seed.  Worst – Lose and he’s out.

Kyle: Best – win, Matt lose, Tyler lose, Brady lose.  He would pass matt in record, and then he would have to outscore brady by 40 and Hukill by 65 to claim the 5th seed, and outscore only one of them for the 6th seed.  It’s very unlikely Kyle makes it.  Worst – lose and out.
That’s it.  Here is the table of the teams, their wins, and their points.

I am Batman
El Gordo
P- Town
Hit Squad

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