Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Week 1 and 2 Review

I wanted to write about week 1, but I was traveling to New York that Sunday for work, and because of all the mishaps during travel (the flight was an hour and a half late, so I missed my connection, which meant I had to get rerouted through Columbus and then got to New York at 9 AM eastern time with maybe an hour of sleep) I went to bed early (9 pm) that Monday night.

There was only one close game week 1.  Chad would have won had Andy Dalton gotten hurt on the first play and ended up with no points.  Instead, Andy Dalton got -3 points, and Chad lost by 2.98 points.

Week 2 was a little better, as there were two close games (both decided by less than 4 points), but overall, the competition has been lacking.

That isn't to say that the results/standings haven't been interesting.  I decided to go back and look at how many teams started 2-0 and how many of said teams made the playoffs.  I don't know why it has worked out this way, but we consistently have three 2-0 teams each year (one from each division).  There have been 2 years (2010, 2016) where we have only had two 2-0 teams, and we had one year (2013) where we had four 2-0 teams.  I would like to see how a season plays out where there are no 2-0 teams, or six 2-0 teams, but those aren't very likely to happen.

My "research" (looking quickly through the history) showed that of the 20 teams to start 2-0, 14 (70%) of them make the playoffs.  I don't want to jinx Brady, but the only time he has made the playoffs, he started 2-0 -- this might be the year he gets back in.  The 6 teams to miss the playoffs after starting 2-0 were Trevor (2016), Trevor (2013),  Kyle (2012), Chad (2011), Konner (2011), and Trevor (2010).  I learned two things from that list.  The first thing I learned is that we have gotten better over the years as a league. Four of the instances of teams missing the playoffs happened in the first 3 years of data/post-missions.  The second thing I learned is that Trevor has a hard time handling a good start as he accounts for half of the instances of people starting 2-0 and missing the playoffs.

I also looked at teams that start 0-2 to see how they do with making the playoffs.  Only 6 out of 20 of them make the playoffs.  There is a pretty good correlation of the 0-2's making it the year 2-0's don't but it's not perfect every year, so no need to despair quite yet if you started 0-2.  In 2013, two teams who started 0-2 played in the championship game.

We all know that the projections are garbage, but at least at the moment, no one is projected to win by more than 9 points.  So hopefully we get some close games this week and have a little bit more anxiety on Sunday night.

Saturday, August 26, 2017

Draft Recap

Here is the recap where I use footballguys.com to rank our teams -- this should be fun to see how we all did.   In order of the first analyst's opinion on our odds to make the playoffs if we have great in season management.

Rob (99) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=8hK87KQ9dUA7
TJ (90) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=LD989j836CvZ
Chad (85) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=yU37645Y9w39
Tyler (80) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=HQV57Es2Kj6w
Ren (80) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=i8V28DCHsyLa
Geoff (80) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=u4M44zIxteQx
Skyler  (75) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=3Z76k7BxZRyA
Brady (70) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=h7Xb7juDI555
Trevor (65) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=5ED6W62JKY85
Jordan (60) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=CBYe3tzrpZR2
Matt (60) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=QSj37sa82HyK
Kyle (60) -- http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=4r4WvB9Is24a

Very interesting spread here.  I thought Rob had a really good draft, but not a 99 draft.  Who knows.  I also didn't think any of those 60's were that bad.  Only time will tell.

**Update**:  Here are team rankings from fantasypros.com.  There aren't any major changes, but still interesting to look at.