I have more free time today, so I decided to sit down and look at how each team can qualify for the playoffs. Here is a screenshot of the current standings.
So starting at the bottom:
Trevor is officially out. Sorry, compadre.
Trevor is officially out. Sorry, compadre.
Jordan and Kyle have the same path to the playoffs. Win every division game with TJ losing every division game, and Tyler winning only one division game (over TJ) while the other member of the Jordan/Kyle group beats both TJ and Tyler, but loses the head to head Jordan/Kyle matchup. And then Jordan/Kyle would have to be able to beat out TJ and Tyler on the points tiebreaker. I give this a <1% chance of happening. Another fun fact, if Jordan loses this weekend, he eliminates himself and Kyle at the same time.
Next on the list is Geof. Geoff cannot catch Chad or Brady, so if they win, it doesn't affect him making playoffs. Geoff needs people he can catch to lose. So he needs to win out (gets him to 7 wins), and he needs Skyler to lose out (stays at 6). He should also cheer for TJ and Rob to win out (8 and 10 wins respectively), with Tyler only winning 1 more game maximum (5 wins). He should also cheer for Trevor to beat both Matt and Ren so they don't get additional wins. Given the current scores, he should cheer for Ren over Matt because Matt has the lower point total, but if Matt or Ren lose out, and Geoff wins out, he would jump ahead of one of those people. Also, it is still mathematically possible for him to make the playoffs at 6 wins, but it would be darn near impossible. I also give Geoff <1% chance of making the playoffs.
It gets murky in the middle, so I am jumping to the top. The winner of Chad v Brady has the inside track to a bye week. It is possible that the loser wins the next two after, and the winner loses the next two, but it's not likely given their competition. Chad has a big lead on points, so if they end up tied, he will get the tiebreaker. In theory, one of them could lose out and miss the playoffs, but we know that's not going to happen. The things that need to happen for one of them to miss the playoffs is longer than the list for Geoff to make the playoffs. >99% chance they both make the playoffs, and >99% chance that one of them gets a first-round bye.
In order for Tyler to win the division, he needs to win all of his games, and given the 90 point lead TJ has on him, he should hope for TJ to lose at least 2 games. If Tyler wants to get to the playoffs as a wild-card, he will still likely need to win out. If Tyler only gets to 6 wins he would need TJ to lose out, Ren or Matt to lose out (Matt has fewer points, so he should cheer against Matt), and Skyler to lose out. And then he would have to make it on tie-breakers -- and he is already ahead of Matt and Skyler on points, so that would work out for him. Overall though, Tyler's best case to make the playoffs is by winning the division.
It gets murky in the middle, so I am jumping to the top. The winner of Chad v Brady has the inside track to a bye week. It is possible that the loser wins the next two after, and the winner loses the next two, but it's not likely given their competition. Chad has a big lead on points, so if they end up tied, he will get the tiebreaker. In theory, one of them could lose out and miss the playoffs, but we know that's not going to happen. The things that need to happen for one of them to miss the playoffs is longer than the list for Geoff to make the playoffs. >99% chance they both make the playoffs, and >99% chance that one of them gets a first-round bye.
In order for Tyler to win the division, he needs to win all of his games, and given the 90 point lead TJ has on him, he should hope for TJ to lose at least 2 games. If Tyler wants to get to the playoffs as a wild-card, he will still likely need to win out. If Tyler only gets to 6 wins he would need TJ to lose out, Ren or Matt to lose out (Matt has fewer points, so he should cheer against Matt), and Skyler to lose out. And then he would have to make it on tie-breakers -- and he is already ahead of Matt and Skyler on points, so that would work out for him. Overall though, Tyler's best case to make the playoffs is by winning the division.
TJ can guarantee a division title by winning out. If he goes 2-1 and Tyler goes 3-0, he will still likely win the division based on points. TJ can also win the division by only winning 1 of his last 3 games, as long as that win is against Tyler (they play next week, and not this week), and that Tyler doesn't catch him on the tie-breaker. All of those scenarios
The South division can be won by any of the non-Trevor teams winning out. Matt would need a little help if he wins 3 games and Rob wins 2 since Rob is ahead on tie-breakers, but even then Matt would make the playoffs.
The wild card spots are a little tricker for The non-South winners and Skyler are a little trickier. For ease of writing, I will assume Rob wins the division since he currently has the lead. So that leaves Matt and Ren fighting with Skyler for the last 2 playoff spots (though Rob could be swapped out for Matt or Ren, and Tyler could get there, but it would be a big stretch). Another stretch is that an 8 win team could miss the playoffs. If Matt and Ren go 2-1, and Rob and Trevor go 1-2, Matt Ren and Rob would all end up with 8 wins. If Skyler also goes 2-1, that would give him 8 wins. It's highly unlikely all of that happens, but you never know.
The South division can be won by any of the non-Trevor teams winning out. Matt would need a little help if he wins 3 games and Rob wins 2 since Rob is ahead on tie-breakers, but even then Matt would make the playoffs.
The wild card spots are a little tricker for The non-South winners and Skyler are a little trickier. For ease of writing, I will assume Rob wins the division since he currently has the lead. So that leaves Matt and Ren fighting with Skyler for the last 2 playoff spots (though Rob could be swapped out for Matt or Ren, and Tyler could get there, but it would be a big stretch). Another stretch is that an 8 win team could miss the playoffs. If Matt and Ren go 2-1, and Rob and Trevor go 1-2, Matt Ren and Rob would all end up with 8 wins. If Skyler also goes 2-1, that would give him 8 wins. It's highly unlikely all of that happens, but you never know.
In summary, if you want to guarantee a spot in the playoffs, get to 9 wins. If you want a really good shot, get to 8. If you want a chance to make the playoffs, get to 7, but you will be needing help. Getting in with 6 wins will require a miracle. Getting there with 5 means you are Kyle or Jordan and that miracles are real.
No comments:
Post a Comment