Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Another week, another 3 game losing streak.

I thought my title was clever, and then I realized I wasn't even the coldest team in the league.  Trevor is tied with me said 3 game losing streak, and then there is Jordan who is on a 9 game losing streak.  He started 2-0, probably felt on top of the world, and then crashed hardcore.  This week, Jordan hit his final bump and was eliminated with his loss, as was Kyle.  They join Trevor in the group of fallen tributes (if you didn't watch hunger games, shame on you).  Skyler

Switching to the leaders, Chad v Brady looked promising, after Chad's 180 point game.  Brady decided to get in on the 180 point action this week, but Chad didn't break triple digits.  Even after that huge win, Chad still has a 50 point lead on Brady if it comes down to tie-breakers.  Fortunately for Brady, he has some cupcake games coming up, and he should hopefully maintain his 1 game lead on Chad. Skyler

In news from the South (which currently has the most exciting races in my opinion), Rob got a big win and basically knocked Matt out of the race for division champion.  Rob is currently up 2 games on Matt with 2 games to go and Rob has a 100 point lead over Matt as well.  If Rob wins next week, that will eliminate TJ from getting a first-round bye, even though it wouldn't give Rob the division championship, because Ren could still catch him. Skyler

In the West division, TJ has a one-game lead over Tyler as well as 110 points.  For Tyler to win the division, he will need to win out while TJ loses out.  There is a small possibility that they could end with the same record, and Tyler somehow catches up on the 110 points over two weeks, but we all know it's not going to happen. Skyler

With Skyler and Matt losing, and Geoff and Tyler winning, the battle for 6th place will be intense with two weeks remaining.  Skyler and Geoff have the toughest remaining games (both against the top 2 teams in the league, so they should be nervous.  Matt is 50/50 as he plays Ren and then Trevor.  Tyler is also at 50/50 as he plays Jordan and TJ. Skyler

The game of the week is Matt against Ren.  If Ren wins, he will have a 2 game lead over Matt, and Matt will have no chance of sneaking up to get the 5 seed.  Ren winning will also keep the pressure on Rob for the division championship.  If Matt wins, he will maintain his lead on the 6th seed and could overtake Ren for the 5th seed next week, and he will also make the path for Rob winning the division much easier. Skyler

For the sake of intensity (and my own needs), Ren beating Matt would make for an intense week 13 since there could still be 4 teams fighting for one spot. Skyler

I know my thoughts have been all over the place, so here is a recap by person, going in the order of ease for me to write about. Skyler

Kyle, Jordan, and Trevor are done, but can still affect the playoffs by winning or losing. Skyler
Skyler
Brady: Leads for the #1 seed, but Chad is still right there.  This race won't likely be wrapped up until the last week.  If Brady wins this week while Chad loses (I would 100% approve of this), it would be finished, but Chad has an easy game (Skyler). Skyler

Chad: See above. Skyler

Rob: A win this week and a Ren loss would lock up the division win and the bye week.  A Rob loss and a Ren win would put Ren atop the division on tie-breaker, and then they would play each other in week 13 with the division on the line (and it would give TJ a chance to steal a first-round bye).  I really want to see that happen now that I know it can happen,  It can only happen with a Rob loss and a Ren win. Do your part Trevor and Ren. Skyler

Ren: See above.  Even with a loss, he would still be in control of the 5 seed going into the last week, but it would make him vulnerable to dropping to 6th or even missing the playoffs, though not likely. Skyler
Matt:  (See the previous two) Lose and he will have no shot at the 5th seed, plus he will give hope to Skyler, Geoff and Tyler to sneak in. Skyler

Geoff and Tyler:  If they lose while Matt wins, they will be eliminated from the playoffs. If they win while Matt loses, Tyler would jump up ahead of Matt and into the 6th seed (unless Skyler won, though he could potentially win his division), and Geoff would be tied with both of them on record, but behind on points. Skyler

Skyler: If he loses and Matt wins, Matt will have a 1 game lead and currently has a 50 point lead in the tie-breaker.  It wouldn't 100% eliminate Skyler, but it would be almost impossible for him to come back from the loss. If he wins and Matt loses, it will move him up to the 6th seed. Skyler

TJ: Win the week, win the division, have a shot at a bye week if Rob loses. Lose this week (to Tyler), wait and see what happens in week 13, lose all chance at a bye week.

So for maximum week 13 fun we want Skyler and Matt to lose (stay at 6 wins) and Geoff and Tyler to win (get up to 6 wins), while Ren beats Rob.  That would mean no one had won their division yet, and that 4 teams would be battling for 6th place.

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