Monday, November 3, 2014

Week 10: More Bye Weeks and Magic Numbers

I went back to my last blog post to see how my predictions worked out, and I noticed just how many mistakes I made – both grammatically and fantasy wise.  I won’t correct my grammar errors on here, but I will acknowledge any fantasy prediction mistakes I had.  Here we go in the order that I made guesses last week.  Before I get to that, I will say that it appears my bye week advantages will win each game, so I did do something right.  Anyway, moving on.

Rob and me – I wasn’t sure if I had the big advantage over Rob (I didn’t) but my team came to play. It’s highly unlikely he makes a comeback tonight, but I suppose it could happen.

Matt and Geoff – I was wrong thinking that Matt would be in last no matter what.  It was definitely the battle for last place.  Geoff won, and should jump from 11th overall to 8th overall.  Very nice jump for him.  Anyway, Geoff overcame Tate being on bye and Bernard on injury.  Geoff scares me – I think he is getting hot and has a real shot at the playoffs.

Konner and Trevor – Rough week for Konner in fantasy football, not in high school football.  Trevor got the win and now has the inside track to the 5th seed.

Ren and Jordan – I might have been a little wrong about blowout, and I was also wrong about Demaryius Thomas and my paid vacation comment.  I thought it was so creative, and I wanted to use it.  I was also wrong about Peyton going bonkers, though he still played well.  As long as Fleener doesn’t go bonkers, Ren will win.

Brady and Tyler – I had the right call on bye week advantage, wrong call on who was going to win.  Everyone lost that Brady needed to lose, but he couldn’t get the win.  Some of that is Rivers getting -2 points, and some is on starting the wrong guys. Looking at his team though, I can’t say I fault him for his roster choices.

Kyle and Chad – Kyle’s depth really hurt him this week.  Not sure what else to say about it.  He should bounce back next week and have a better point total.  For Chad it will be interesting to see how Sanu plays with Green back, but so far, so good.

Magic Numbers – So after this week, if everything holds like I think it will, here are some magic number updates.  Chad’s magic number for the division championship is now 2.  So it would be super nice if I won and he lost next week.  Chad has a good shot at winning, and I think I lose to Konner, so that number should stay the same for another week.  Rob and Matt each lost, and Ren won, so they can no longer win the division.  Trevor’s number is 2 because Ren won as well.
Tyler won this week, and now has the division lead by one game.  It’s still really close, but Kyle’s magic number should be 3, but I’m not 100% if the head to head matchup changes anything.  I think it only speeds up Kyle’s ability to come back or to be eliminated from winning the division.  Jordan and Konner have a magic number of 4.  Not that Konner, Tyler and Jordan can all win out, but if they could, Tyler wouldn’t clinch until the last week.  Considering it’s all division games starting in week 11, a lot of things can change, and can change quickly. 

Wild Card – Chad has the 4th seed, and leads Trevor by 1 game, who has the 5th seed, and then 6th seed is still crammed.  Jordan currently leads the 6 seed and is currently 4-5.  He is beating Konner on points.  Kyle, Rob and Geoff are 1 game behind, and Brady and Matt are 2 games behind the 6 seed.  I think everyone can mathematically still get the 4 seed, but I haven’t looked into head to head schedules enough to say how likely that is.

Bye Week Advantages: Week 10 – I will try and be quicker here than last week. I will name the person who I think has the advantage from bye weeks, and I will note if I think the other person still has the game advantage.
Skyler & Konner – Konner (I will be missing some important Patriots, namely my RB and TE)
Jordan & Geoff – Jordan (Jordan should be down a TE, Geoff will be down his QB, a WR, and a RB or two)
Matt & Chad – Chad (Chad will only be missing Malcom Floyd, and his kicker, Matt will miss a TE, his DST and two WR’s)
Rob & Brady – Brady (This is close, Brady is missing some important players, but Rob is missing a lot of players, so he would need to do more work this week to put in a full roster)
Ren & Tyler – Ren (Ren is missing Foster, though he is hurt, and a bunch of bench rotation players, maybe the occasional flex, Tyler will miss his MVP in Luck, and also Edelman.  His QB depth isn’t bad, but losing your best player is never good)
Trevor & Kyle – Trevor (Trevor is only going to miss his DST, Kyle will miss a TE, WR, K, and DST)

Next Week Scenarios – Geoff and Jordan is a big one.  Geoff is currently up by about 10 points, but back one win.  Next week would jump Geoff up over Jordan, and possibly over Konner, but I do think Konner will beat me, and will stay ahead of Geoff.  Another big one is Brady and Rob.  If Brady wins he would jump Rob, and possibly Kyle (who plays Trevor).  Those are the two big games that could change the standings and the wild card race.  That’s it for me.  Good luck to everyone but Konner next week.

Weekly Record: 3-1
Year to Date: 26-10

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