Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Week 9: Bye Week Previews and Some Magic Number

I decided that I would write a second post this week simply because I am bored in my class.  First I will look at bye weeks and then I’ll go into some magic numbers for playoff spots and division winners.  This week begins bye week hell.  Before this week, only 2 teams were ever on a bye.  This week, 6 teams are on a bye.  That will happen next week as well.  Week 11 only 4 teams will be a on a bye, week 12 only 2 teams will be on a bye, and then there will be no more byes.  So now we see how well each owner can manage, and how well waiver pickups have gone.

Starting with mine and Rob’s game, we will both be missing our QB’s.  We will also be missing top WR’s, though I haven’t played Megatron once since acquiring him.  Rob’s recent waiver acquisition Bryce Brown is also out, as is his defense.  Both of those two are easily replaceable because he hasn’t been depending on them all year.  I believe the bye hurts Rob more than me because Stafford has played better than Ryan the last couple of weeks, and because I’ve been playing without Megatron, so his being out isn’t any different for me.

Next up according to the order of the game center layout are Matt and Geoff.  I thought it was the battle for last, but even if Matt wins, Geoff likely stays ahead based on points.  Anyway, on to the bye weeks.  Matt gets Kaepernick back, but loses Lacy, Marshall, as well as Wright, Adams and Sankey.  Those last three aren’t big other than they could be used as bye week subs.  It will be interesting to see how he manages his team this week.  Geoff will be missing Cutler (who he hasn’t needed as of late anyway) and Golden Tate who has been solid with Megatron’s absence.  There is a small chance of Gio missing due to injury, but that’s not the point of this writing, so bye week advantage Geoff.  Geoff is deep enough to cover Tate being out and could cover Gio being hurt.

The strive for 5 – Konner vs. Trevor.  This is a great time to face Konner.  High school football playoffs are starting soon, and I doubt Konner cares much about fantasy during this stretch, but who knows.  Konner has a real rough bye week scenario.  He loses Forte, Cobb, Bennett, and his kicker (least big deal). Trevor is only down Jordy and his kicker.  Advantage Trevor.

Ren and Jordan have another game, and even before the bye information I was picking Ren to win, but now I’m thinking blowout.  Jordan will be missing Rodgers, White and Steven Jackson, but he should get Green back from injury.  Jordan will miss one of his two guys that can win a game for your single handedly, and the other one is tied to Ren’s QB.  Ren will be missing Julio Jones who has barely cracked 30 points with his last 3 games combined – so not the biggest loss with the way he has been playing.  The other problem for Jordan is that this is Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady week, and I expect Manning to go bonkers.  But I think Demaryius will get a paid vacation to Revis Island and not do much to help the Broncos or Jordan, so that won’t even help him.  Anyway, advantage Ren.

Brady and Tyler have the smallest amount of bye week impact, as Tyler has no one on bye, and Brady only has two guys, Walker, and Fred Jackson, who has been injured anyway.  I think this is the one game where the guy with the bye week advantage doesn’t win. Bye advantage Tyler, but win for Brady.

Kyle and Chad round out the week, with Chad looking like the bye week winner, he is missing Jacquizz Rodgers, who hasn’t been starting for Chad that I’ve noticed.  He will be missing Watkins though, who has been huge as of late.  Speaking of which, Chad didn’t listen to me when I tried to swindle Watkins away.  I’m still mad about that.  Kyle on the other will be missing about half of his running backs.  He currently can start a recently injured Rashad Jennings, who likely won’t play in real life.  Knile Davis is a backup to Charles, which isn’t promising, and Benny Cunningham is in an RBBC situation at best, though he did have three straight weeks at double digits before last week.  Chad probably loses the single best player this matchup, but Kyle has some serious depth issues.  Advantage Chad

So now that the bye weeks have been looked at, time for some magic numbers.  I think I first heard about the magic number from MLB, though it could have been NBA.  Basically the magic number comes from number of the top team’s wins and bottom team’s losses.  For example, Geoff and Brady’s magic number last week was 1, and as soon as I won or they lost, they couldn’t win the division.  So the magic number for me to clinch the division/for Chat to not win the division is 3.  I have a 3 game lead with 5 games left.  If I win 3 more games, I win the division, or if Chad loses 3 I win the division, or a combination of 2 wins for me, 1 loss for chad or 2 losses for Chad or 1 win for me.  So now that we have that established, I will go ahead and apply this to the non-leaders of the South division in comparison to the division leader, and the West is way too tight for me to attempt.  I will attempt todo wild card numbers (6 seed) as well.

South Magic Numbers: Bhers magic number is 1.  As soon as he loses, or Ren wins, he can no longer win the division. Rob’s magic number is 2.  So both Rob and Matt could be shut out after this week from the division championship.  Trevor’s magic number is 3.

Wildcard Numbers:  Currently Chad is number 4, even though he is ahead of the whole West Division.  Someone from the West has to make the playoffs.  However, because they are all tied, I will put them all into the wildcard consideration.  With 5 weeks to go, no one is eliminated from the playoff hunt.  And after sitting here thinking about it, this is way too much to try and figure out, and it’s way too close.  Considering the 5 and 6 seeds are at 4-4 and the 10, 11, and 12 spots are only 2 games behind, it’s a little hard to figure it out.  Maybe in the next couple of weeks I’ll be able to do it.  Anyway, that’s it for this week.

Weekly Record: 3-1 (another lucky week, barely beating Matt and getting some luck against Tommy)

Year to Date: 23-9

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