Monday, October 13, 2014

Week 6: The Luck of the Scottish

I’ll just go ahead and say it.  I got super lucky to win this week.  But before I get to that, I am sad for Victor Cruz.  Sure, it’s because it changes my fantasy team, but he seems like a good guy and it was a non-contact injury – which is basically just a freak accident. Onto the positive.  DeMarco Murray is a beast.  I picked him up the same year I picked up Cruz and have had them as keepers since.  Murray is making the most of his last year, whereas Cruz is done for the year. 

Anyway, back to my lucky week.  I ended up beating Tyler by 0.74.  He had texted me to complain about Murray’s garbage time touchdown, and I told him that St. Louis could get the ball back and then throw a pick 6 to give Tyler the lead.  So of course that is what happened.  I got a text from Matt saying that sucks, same with Kyle, and then I called Tyler to tell curse him out for beating me because I jinxed myself.  As I was on the phone with Tyler, the Rams got the ball back, and got enough yards to drop Tyler 3 points, and give me the narrow margin of victory, and then Kyle and Matt texted me to say something to the effect of “lucky”.  I’m not sure what I did to get so lucky, but I am grateful for it.  It capped off what was probably the best possible week for me in this league.

My goal this season is to get the first round bye.  I may be in first place, but I believe Ren has the better team.  Sure his last couple of victories have been narrow, but his team scares me the most of anyone in the league.  So the goal is take 2nd and get the first round bye.  I’m banking on Ren winning his division, so I don’t have to worry about anyone else from the South getting the bye.  My biggest concerns are Chad, because he is in my division, and then most of the west because they are all tied except for Jordan, and I have no idea how that division will go.

So it's always good for me to win, but it was also good that Tyler lost, because it keeps him 3 games behind me – same with Kyle and Konner.  Now those three are tied in their division, and I have an ok lead on them.  I kind of wanted Jordan to win because it would put all of that crazy division tied, and would keep Rob down (another team that is a little scary), but it wasn’t a huge deal that Rob won.  Trevor is starting to worry me a little bit (should be 3rd place because of his record), so it would have been nice for him to lose…stupid Crabtree.  And in the game of the week (Chad and Ren) I wasn’t sure who I wanted to win. 

If Chad won, my division lead would stay at 2 games, but my league lead would have been at 2 games because Ren lost.  If Ren won, I would only be one game ahead of him, which is basically not a lead at all in my book, but I would have a lead in my division by 3 games.  I finally decided to cheer for Chad because it would boost my division, as well as give me a small chance at finishing with the #1 seed and not the #2 seed – so of course Ren won.  Because my goal is a first round bye, this still doesn’t really hurt me too much.  I’m just lucky I got this win.  Not only because I won by so little, but because I could have only beat 3 teams this week, and I was lucky enough to play one of them.

So here is a rough breakdown of division and then overall, and then wildcard spots. – this will likely be up on the league site by the time you read this, so feel free to ignore it, or correct any errors I make.

Skyler – 0 games behind
Chad – 3 GB
Brady – 5 GB
Geoff – 5 GB
Brady was 4th overall in points before this week, but Geoff is sitting slightly prettier in my book because Brady still has to play Ren, and Geoff already got that out of the way.  They could still go on a run and make the playoffs and even win the division, but it’s not likely.

Ren – 0 GB
Trevor – 1 GB
Rob – 2 GB
BHers – 3 GB
It’s narrow enough that it only takes 2-3 weeks to mix up the order – though I don’t think anyone overtakes Ren.  Trevor has played tough, and Rob’s team seems to be getting out of its funk.

Konner – 0 GB
Kyle – 0 GB
Tyler – 0 GB
Jordan – 1 GB
As you can see this division will probably be the closest all year.  Only about 6 points separate Kyle and Tyler, and Jordan has more points than both of them, but is behind a win.  Jordan should only be about 6 points behind Konner once the records get updated, and Konner has a 50ish point lead on Kyle.  So if Jordan can catch up in wins, it should jump him near the top of the division.

Skyler – 0 GB (North Leader)
Ren – 1 GB (South Leader)
Trevor – 2 GB
Chad – 3 GB
Konner – 3 GB (West Leader)
Rob – 3 GB
Kyle – 3 GB (and about 30 points out of the playoffs right now for the wild card spot, 50 for division spot)
Tyler – 3 GB
Jordan – 4 GB
Matt – 4 GB
Brady – 5 GB
Geoff – 5 GB

Wild Card (Division leaders are not in this list, and GB will be shown as #/# GB. The first number is based on taking the 4 seed, which is the highest a wildcard can get, even if he is higher than the other 2 division winners. The second number is based on taking the 6 seed):
Trevor (4 seed) – 0/0 GB
Chad (5 seed) – 1/0 GB
Rob (6 seed) – 1/0 GB
Kyle – 1/0 GB
Tyler – 1/0 GB
Jordan – 2/1 GB
Matt – 2/1 GB
Brady – 3/2 GB
Geoff – 3/2 GB

So as you can see, the battle for the 6 seed is still very much alive.  Chances are none of this matters in 4 to 5 weeks when we go back to division games, but it’s still interesting to see where you need to go.  Anyway, that’s all for this week.  Bad luck to Kyle next week.

Weekly Record: 2-2 (1 point away from 1-3)
Year to Date: 17-7

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