In Hunger Games fashion, let us all pay tribute to Rob, the first of 11 fallen tributes. With a loss tonight, Rob can max out at 5 wins for the year. There are currently five people with 6+ wins that Rob can't catch, and the winner of the Ren and Matt matchup next week will also get to 6 wins, so that would fill the 6th slot, meaning Rob cannot get to the 6th slot (or the division champion). Best of luck in the consolation bracket Rob. This also means we will have a new champion this year, and that Rob won't be going back to back.
Several games were close at the beginning of Monday night, but they didn't end up that way. The Monday Night Football game was a shootout that didn't favor everyone equally, unfortunately. And in other news, for anyone who is reading this write up that isn't in the league, there was a blockbuster trade of Zeke/Hopkins for Gurley/Keenan Allen. But more on that later.
Skyler vs Geoff/Konner: As the matchup mentions, Konner has been added in as a temporary co-owner for the season as Geoff has run into lineup issues the last 2 weeks, and with it being the playoffs soon, and with so many teams being in contention, it didn't seem fair to let Geoff not set an actual lineup. This match was never close though. Skyler put up a huge total and ran away with this early, so it didn't matter that Gurley had his lowest point total of the season, because several others had their best games of the year. Skyler has taken over first place, while Geoff/Konner are in 7th, one game out of 6th, but if they could tie with Kyle on record, they currently hold the points tiebreaker.
Brady vs Tommy: This was a close game going into Sunday night, but then Diggs gave Tommy a nice lead, and Hunt kept him there, even though Brady tried to fight back with Cooks on Monday night. The lack of Patriots players and lack of George Kittle, combined with Fitztragic getting pulled kept Brady from reaching his full potential this week. The loss puts Brady into 2nd overall, behind 1 game on Skyler, but ahead of him by 15 points on the tiebreaker, but it puts him into the 4th seed for the playoffs. Their week 13 matchup will be fun with a lot on the line. With the win, Tommy gets to 5 wins and stays in striking distance of the 6th seed. He is a game behind Kyle, but ahead of Kyle by 6 points. The issue facing Tommy is that there are 3 other teams tied with him at 5-6, and he is the lowest of the 4 on points. He is still very much in the playoff hunt though.
Rob vs Matt: As was mentioned in the introduction, Rob lost and is out of the playoffs. The combination of Carson Wentz and his defense scoring 1.84 points was a big factor in that. The other factor was the trade that was mentioned above. Matt's new players scored him 47.7 points, and his old players would have scored him 36.4, which is a difference of 11.3 points. Rob lost by 10.28. So the Zeke trade worked out for Matt this week, and it will definitely work out next week since Gurley will be on a bye and Zeke won't be, and Matt needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt. With the loss, Rob is eliminated, and Matt moves back into first place in his division. Matt has the benefit of being the highest scorer of the 5-6 pack, so even if Ren passes him for the division, Matt is still in contention for the wild card.
Trevor vs Ren: Trevor keeps his playoff hopes alive by beating Ren in convincing fashion. I can't say enough good things about Saquon -- potentially dragging Trevor to the playoffs might be more impressive than dragging the Giants to a few wins. Ren stays tied for the division lead but is back on points. He is also part of the 5-6 group that is battling for the last playoff spot, but he is 3rd (of 4) on points. His easiest path is the division title, but he can still get there through the wild card if everything bounces right. Trevor needs to win out to have a shot at the playoffs.
Jordan vs TJ: This game started close with Jordan needing 11 points from Hill on MNF for the win. It was definitely the likely outcome, but there was always a shot TJ could hold on for the win. 43.5 points later, and Hill secured the victory for Jordan. This win puts Jordan ahead of Kyle for 5th place (ahead by 104 points), but behind Tyler (behind by 7) for 2nd/a first-round bye. Last week I gave Jordan crap about not being afraid of his team because I didn't think he would get above the 6th seed, but now he is battling for the 2nd seed in the playoffs, which would come with a first-round bye. TJ can still make the playoffs if he wins out, if Jordan wins out, and if the right combinations of wins and losses happen to the teams at 5-6 and 6-5. TJ can max out at 6 wins, so he needs to keep as few teams at 6 or below as possible, and then hope he can beat them on tie-breakers. It's a tall order, but it could still happen. To go with the Hunger games analogy from before, TJ is bleeding out, and he desperately needs an ally and some medication, but the cannon is loaded and ready to be fired at any time.
Kyle vs Tyler: The game of the week was decided by 1.3 points, with game flow keeping Kyle from getting a chance at a victory at the end of MNF. Both guys were sweating it out and hating their lives that whole game. The win puts Tyler in 3rd on record, but 2nd in the playoffs. Kyle drops from the 2nd seed/bye to 6th place, but he leads that last wildcard spot by a game -- which is the silver lining for now.
Highest Scorer of the Week: This award goes to Skyler this week thanks to some fluky performances from Mike Evans (recovering a Jameis Winston fumble in the end zone) and Jordan Reed (2nd touchdown of the year, 1st one since week one).
Lowest Scorer of the Week: Ren "wins" this award after 2 points from Dalvin Cook and 1.8 from MVS, though the rest of the team had a hand in letting him down as well.
Luckiest Team of the Week: After complaining about how Skyler gets lucky a lot, Tyler comes in with one of the luckier games of the year. He wins by 1.3, though it could have 0.3 had the kicker not missed a PAT, and he was the 5th worst scorer of the week, meaning there were only 4 people who could have beat this week, and he played one of them.
Unluckiest Team of the Week: Rob was the 4th highest scorer of the week but ended up playing the 3rd highest scorer, and he is eliminated from the playoffs because of it. Rob is currently in last place, but is the 6th highest scorer of the season, which goes to show just how unlucky he has been this year.
Now for a quick summary of the standings, and how next weeks games will affect them.
Skyler is in 1st overall, and by hitting 9 wins, he has guaranteed a spot no worse than the 4 seed in the playoffs. If Skyler wins next week, and that is combined with a Brady loss, he will finish with the 1 seed and the bye.
Brady is in 2nd overall, and it is near impossible for him to move lower than the 4 seed. He would have to lose out, and then Kyle and Tyler would have to win out, and then Tyler would have to outscore him by 120 over two weeks to pass him, and Kyle would have to outscore him by 230 over two weeks to pass him. So like I said, Brady will finish no worse than the 4 seed, and is still in contention for the 1st seed. If Brady loses next week, and Skyler wins, Brady will be eliminated from the bye week/1 seed.
Tyler is in 3rd overall, and has the 2 seed because he is winning his division at the moment. However, his lead over Jordan is only by 7 points, so he could easily lose this lead. Unfortunately for him, Kyle and Jordan play each other next week, so one of them will get to 7 wins. So if Tyler loses to TJ, Kyle beats Jordan, Jordan outscores Tyler by 7, Tyler would drop to 6th place and would have to worry about the 5-6 group getting wins. Tyler's range of outcomes is anywhere from a bye week to missing the playoffs.
Jordan is in 4th overall, but currently has the 5 seed. He is very close to passing Tyler though for the division. Anything I said in Tyler's section also applies to Jordan (range of outcomes and how to get there), so just re-read that.
Kyle is in 5th overall, but currently has the 6 seed. He is a ways back on tie-breaker with Tyler and Jordan, but he could still win his division. Anything I said in Tyler's section also applies to Kyle (range of outcomes and how to get there), so just re-read that.
Matt is in 6th overall, but currently has the 3 seed (stupid south division). He leads the tiebreaker over Ren for his division by 120 points, and he leads the 5-6 group on points as well. So Matt has a variety of ways he can make or miss the playoffs. He can finish with the 3 seed, the 6 seed, or out of the playoffs.
Ren is in 8th overall, and I am putting him here because his fate is so closely tied with Matt. He can still win his division, and he could potentially make it as the 6th seed, but since he is 3rd out of 4th in the 5-6 group, so his best bet would be the 3 seed. He is 20 points ahead of Kyle, but is a game behind for the 6th seed. He can still get the 3 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs
Geoff/Konner is in 7th overall, as they are a game behind Kyle for the 6 seed, but they are ahead of Kyle by 30 points. They can finish at the 5 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs.
Tommy is in 9th overall, and a game behind Kyle, but is 6 points ahead of Kyle. He can finish at the 5 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs.
TJ is in 10th overall at 4-7. He needs a miracle to make the playoffs. He needs a scenario where a lot of people finish 6-7, and TJ could get in on the tiebreaker. He can finish at the 5 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs. A loss means he is out of the playoffs.
Trevor is in 11th overall at 4-7. He needs a miracle to make the playoffs. He could still win his division, or possibly even still make the playoffs as a wild card. The division champion scenarios is where he wins out, and then he would prefer Ren beat Matt in week 12, and then Rob beat Ren in week 13 because he is behind Matt in the tiebreaker by 70 points, but he is ahead of ren by 25 points. In order to make the wild card, he needs a scenario where a lot of people finish 6-7, and Trevor could get in on the tiebreaker (or as I call it, the TJ scenario). He can finish at the 3 seed, 5 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs. A loss means he is out of the playoffs, and a Matt win would make it really hard to make the playoffs.
Rob is in 12th overall, and cannot make the playoffs. Sorry Rob.
I was messing with my potential records page (it's super sophisticated), and I discovered a scenario where someone misses the playoffs even though they get to 7 wins. I was looking into it to see if getting to 7 wins next week guaranteed anyone a playoff spot. It doesn't due to the fact that the South winner makes the playoffs, so someone from the South could get in at 6-7 and someone who is 7-6 would miss the wild card. So the point is, getting to 7 isn't a guarantee, though it is really likely to get you into the playoffs. So whoever wins between Kyle and Jordan will be in a really good spot. Also, because Matt and Ren both have 5 wins and play each other this week, the South winner will for sure hit 6 wins, so that's nice. 6-7 looks better than 5-8.
There are so many scenarios that will make the league entertaining that it will take too long to go through everything. I want to see as many people competing for the playoffs on the last week, but odds are you are only worried about making the playoffs, and you don't care what anyone else does as long as it doesn't hurt you. I will see if I can write something up mid-week, but it isn't likely with Thanksgiving being so soon.
Looking at specific matchups -- Kyle vs Jordan might be the game of the week since the winner of that game will have a good shot at a bye week, and Ren vs Matt is another one that is huge because the winner will have a good shot at winning the division and getting the 3 seed. All the other matchups have playoff implications, but those two matchups are the marquee ones in my mind.
There will be 3 games on Thursday for Thanksgiving (Bears/Lions, Redskins/Cowboys, and Falcons/Saints), which will make for some prime time viewing/matchups, and then Sunday Night Football is Vikings/Packers and Monday Night Football is Texans/Titans (not a great fantasy game), and the Chiefs and Rams will be on bye. That means we should all see some quality games and hopefully, some players will step up, but we will also be missing some great players due to the last bye week this season.
Thanks for sticking with me through this whole thing, and good luck to everyone (except Tommy) next week.
Several games were close at the beginning of Monday night, but they didn't end up that way. The Monday Night Football game was a shootout that didn't favor everyone equally, unfortunately. And in other news, for anyone who is reading this write up that isn't in the league, there was a blockbuster trade of Zeke/Hopkins for Gurley/Keenan Allen. But more on that later.
Skyler vs Geoff/Konner: As the matchup mentions, Konner has been added in as a temporary co-owner for the season as Geoff has run into lineup issues the last 2 weeks, and with it being the playoffs soon, and with so many teams being in contention, it didn't seem fair to let Geoff not set an actual lineup. This match was never close though. Skyler put up a huge total and ran away with this early, so it didn't matter that Gurley had his lowest point total of the season, because several others had their best games of the year. Skyler has taken over first place, while Geoff/Konner are in 7th, one game out of 6th, but if they could tie with Kyle on record, they currently hold the points tiebreaker.
Brady vs Tommy: This was a close game going into Sunday night, but then Diggs gave Tommy a nice lead, and Hunt kept him there, even though Brady tried to fight back with Cooks on Monday night. The lack of Patriots players and lack of George Kittle, combined with Fitztragic getting pulled kept Brady from reaching his full potential this week. The loss puts Brady into 2nd overall, behind 1 game on Skyler, but ahead of him by 15 points on the tiebreaker, but it puts him into the 4th seed for the playoffs. Their week 13 matchup will be fun with a lot on the line. With the win, Tommy gets to 5 wins and stays in striking distance of the 6th seed. He is a game behind Kyle, but ahead of Kyle by 6 points. The issue facing Tommy is that there are 3 other teams tied with him at 5-6, and he is the lowest of the 4 on points. He is still very much in the playoff hunt though.
Rob vs Matt: As was mentioned in the introduction, Rob lost and is out of the playoffs. The combination of Carson Wentz and his defense scoring 1.84 points was a big factor in that. The other factor was the trade that was mentioned above. Matt's new players scored him 47.7 points, and his old players would have scored him 36.4, which is a difference of 11.3 points. Rob lost by 10.28. So the Zeke trade worked out for Matt this week, and it will definitely work out next week since Gurley will be on a bye and Zeke won't be, and Matt needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt. With the loss, Rob is eliminated, and Matt moves back into first place in his division. Matt has the benefit of being the highest scorer of the 5-6 pack, so even if Ren passes him for the division, Matt is still in contention for the wild card.
Trevor vs Ren: Trevor keeps his playoff hopes alive by beating Ren in convincing fashion. I can't say enough good things about Saquon -- potentially dragging Trevor to the playoffs might be more impressive than dragging the Giants to a few wins. Ren stays tied for the division lead but is back on points. He is also part of the 5-6 group that is battling for the last playoff spot, but he is 3rd (of 4) on points. His easiest path is the division title, but he can still get there through the wild card if everything bounces right. Trevor needs to win out to have a shot at the playoffs.
Jordan vs TJ: This game started close with Jordan needing 11 points from Hill on MNF for the win. It was definitely the likely outcome, but there was always a shot TJ could hold on for the win. 43.5 points later, and Hill secured the victory for Jordan. This win puts Jordan ahead of Kyle for 5th place (ahead by 104 points), but behind Tyler (behind by 7) for 2nd/a first-round bye. Last week I gave Jordan crap about not being afraid of his team because I didn't think he would get above the 6th seed, but now he is battling for the 2nd seed in the playoffs, which would come with a first-round bye. TJ can still make the playoffs if he wins out, if Jordan wins out, and if the right combinations of wins and losses happen to the teams at 5-6 and 6-5. TJ can max out at 6 wins, so he needs to keep as few teams at 6 or below as possible, and then hope he can beat them on tie-breakers. It's a tall order, but it could still happen. To go with the Hunger games analogy from before, TJ is bleeding out, and he desperately needs an ally and some medication, but the cannon is loaded and ready to be fired at any time.
Kyle vs Tyler: The game of the week was decided by 1.3 points, with game flow keeping Kyle from getting a chance at a victory at the end of MNF. Both guys were sweating it out and hating their lives that whole game. The win puts Tyler in 3rd on record, but 2nd in the playoffs. Kyle drops from the 2nd seed/bye to 6th place, but he leads that last wildcard spot by a game -- which is the silver lining for now.
Highest Scorer of the Week: This award goes to Skyler this week thanks to some fluky performances from Mike Evans (recovering a Jameis Winston fumble in the end zone) and Jordan Reed (2nd touchdown of the year, 1st one since week one).
Lowest Scorer of the Week: Ren "wins" this award after 2 points from Dalvin Cook and 1.8 from MVS, though the rest of the team had a hand in letting him down as well.
Luckiest Team of the Week: After complaining about how Skyler gets lucky a lot, Tyler comes in with one of the luckier games of the year. He wins by 1.3, though it could have 0.3 had the kicker not missed a PAT, and he was the 5th worst scorer of the week, meaning there were only 4 people who could have beat this week, and he played one of them.
Unluckiest Team of the Week: Rob was the 4th highest scorer of the week but ended up playing the 3rd highest scorer, and he is eliminated from the playoffs because of it. Rob is currently in last place, but is the 6th highest scorer of the season, which goes to show just how unlucky he has been this year.
Now for a quick summary of the standings, and how next weeks games will affect them.
Skyler is in 1st overall, and by hitting 9 wins, he has guaranteed a spot no worse than the 4 seed in the playoffs. If Skyler wins next week, and that is combined with a Brady loss, he will finish with the 1 seed and the bye.
Brady is in 2nd overall, and it is near impossible for him to move lower than the 4 seed. He would have to lose out, and then Kyle and Tyler would have to win out, and then Tyler would have to outscore him by 120 over two weeks to pass him, and Kyle would have to outscore him by 230 over two weeks to pass him. So like I said, Brady will finish no worse than the 4 seed, and is still in contention for the 1st seed. If Brady loses next week, and Skyler wins, Brady will be eliminated from the bye week/1 seed.
Tyler is in 3rd overall, and has the 2 seed because he is winning his division at the moment. However, his lead over Jordan is only by 7 points, so he could easily lose this lead. Unfortunately for him, Kyle and Jordan play each other next week, so one of them will get to 7 wins. So if Tyler loses to TJ, Kyle beats Jordan, Jordan outscores Tyler by 7, Tyler would drop to 6th place and would have to worry about the 5-6 group getting wins. Tyler's range of outcomes is anywhere from a bye week to missing the playoffs.
Jordan is in 4th overall, but currently has the 5 seed. He is very close to passing Tyler though for the division. Anything I said in Tyler's section also applies to Jordan (range of outcomes and how to get there), so just re-read that.
Kyle is in 5th overall, but currently has the 6 seed. He is a ways back on tie-breaker with Tyler and Jordan, but he could still win his division. Anything I said in Tyler's section also applies to Kyle (range of outcomes and how to get there), so just re-read that.
Matt is in 6th overall, but currently has the 3 seed (stupid south division). He leads the tiebreaker over Ren for his division by 120 points, and he leads the 5-6 group on points as well. So Matt has a variety of ways he can make or miss the playoffs. He can finish with the 3 seed, the 6 seed, or out of the playoffs.
Ren is in 8th overall, and I am putting him here because his fate is so closely tied with Matt. He can still win his division, and he could potentially make it as the 6th seed, but since he is 3rd out of 4th in the 5-6 group, so his best bet would be the 3 seed. He is 20 points ahead of Kyle, but is a game behind for the 6th seed. He can still get the 3 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs
Geoff/Konner is in 7th overall, as they are a game behind Kyle for the 6 seed, but they are ahead of Kyle by 30 points. They can finish at the 5 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs.
Tommy is in 9th overall, and a game behind Kyle, but is 6 points ahead of Kyle. He can finish at the 5 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs.
TJ is in 10th overall at 4-7. He needs a miracle to make the playoffs. He needs a scenario where a lot of people finish 6-7, and TJ could get in on the tiebreaker. He can finish at the 5 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs. A loss means he is out of the playoffs.
Trevor is in 11th overall at 4-7. He needs a miracle to make the playoffs. He could still win his division, or possibly even still make the playoffs as a wild card. The division champion scenarios is where he wins out, and then he would prefer Ren beat Matt in week 12, and then Rob beat Ren in week 13 because he is behind Matt in the tiebreaker by 70 points, but he is ahead of ren by 25 points. In order to make the wild card, he needs a scenario where a lot of people finish 6-7, and Trevor could get in on the tiebreaker (or as I call it, the TJ scenario). He can finish at the 3 seed, 5 seed, 6 seed, or out of the playoffs. A loss means he is out of the playoffs, and a Matt win would make it really hard to make the playoffs.
Rob is in 12th overall, and cannot make the playoffs. Sorry Rob.
I was messing with my potential records page (it's super sophisticated), and I discovered a scenario where someone misses the playoffs even though they get to 7 wins. I was looking into it to see if getting to 7 wins next week guaranteed anyone a playoff spot. It doesn't due to the fact that the South winner makes the playoffs, so someone from the South could get in at 6-7 and someone who is 7-6 would miss the wild card. So the point is, getting to 7 isn't a guarantee, though it is really likely to get you into the playoffs. So whoever wins between Kyle and Jordan will be in a really good spot. Also, because Matt and Ren both have 5 wins and play each other this week, the South winner will for sure hit 6 wins, so that's nice. 6-7 looks better than 5-8.
There are so many scenarios that will make the league entertaining that it will take too long to go through everything. I want to see as many people competing for the playoffs on the last week, but odds are you are only worried about making the playoffs, and you don't care what anyone else does as long as it doesn't hurt you. I will see if I can write something up mid-week, but it isn't likely with Thanksgiving being so soon.
Looking at specific matchups -- Kyle vs Jordan might be the game of the week since the winner of that game will have a good shot at a bye week, and Ren vs Matt is another one that is huge because the winner will have a good shot at winning the division and getting the 3 seed. All the other matchups have playoff implications, but those two matchups are the marquee ones in my mind.
There will be 3 games on Thursday for Thanksgiving (Bears/Lions, Redskins/Cowboys, and Falcons/Saints), which will make for some prime time viewing/matchups, and then Sunday Night Football is Vikings/Packers and Monday Night Football is Texans/Titans (not a great fantasy game), and the Chiefs and Rams will be on bye. That means we should all see some quality games and hopefully, some players will step up, but we will also be missing some great players due to the last bye week this season.
Thanks for sticking with me through this whole thing, and good luck to everyone (except Tommy) next week.
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