Saturday, December 19, 2020

Week 14.5: There is Still Football Going On?

Apparently, I have just completely checked out this year.  Sorry guys.  Fortunately the recap and preview this week will be quick since I only focus on the playoffs.

Game Recaps

Brandon vs Chad: In the first battle, Brandon came away victorious.  Unfortunately, because I am bad at writing, and because our website is terrible, I can't tell who Brandon's RB and DST were because he has since dropped them.  I think he had the Cardinals DST, but I don't remember who his RB was.  Either way, he beat Chad by a healthy margin and moves on to the semi's.  That's what happens when Your QB, RB, and WR combine for 95 points. Chad had a couple of solid games from 4 players, but his team combined for only 106 points.

Kyle vs Tyler: Kyle put up 138 points -- which was his 4th highest score (out of 14) this season, but unfortunately Tyler put up 171 points -- which was also his 4th highest score of this season.  Let that sink in -- Tyler has put up 170+ four times this season.  He was also the only non-North person to lose to Skyler this year.  So his team can hit the highest of highs and lowest of lows.  Speaking of Tyler's losses this year, he lost to Kyle twice in the regular season, so this was a great revenge game for him.

Award Season

The only award I wanted to say mattered was winning in the playoffs, but Tyler won this week in the pick 'em game, and now he and Tommy are tied on the season.  So I guess we will keep following along since it's a close game. 

Game Preview

Trevor vs Brandon: Trevor had two players on Thursday night, no players on Saturday, and no players in primetime.  Brandon had no players on Thursday night, one player on Saturday, and no players in primetime. Combined, they only have three guys in the Sunday afternoon slot, so this game should be decided early.  From weeks 1-13, Trevor outscored Brandon 8 of the 13 games.  Trevor averaged 0.715 more points per game than Brandon, but Brandon's median score was 5 points higher than Trevor's median score.  Trevor is the only person remaining in the playoffs in the league who never scored below 100 points this season. Trevor had a higher season high score (189 to 168) and a higher season low score (101 to 88) than Brandon.  When I went through the process of trying to find outliers, I had to find the quartile's to calculate the InterQuartile Range (IQR).  First, no one remaining had any 'outlier' games, and second, Trevor had the highest lower quartlie, the lowest higher quartile, and therefore, the smallest IQR.  Basically, Trevor is the most consistent team remaining in the playoffs, and is least likely to crap the bed (I'm sorry if this jinxes you my Charger brother).  I also looked at the average scores in groups.  Brandon had the higher average score in the weeks 1-4 group, but Trevor had the higher average in the weeks 5-8 gorup and the weeks 9-13 group. Based on all of that, I'm taking Trevor to win this series and get to his first championship game.

Tyler vs Brady: Tyler had no players on Thursday night, one player on Saturday, and one player in primetime.  Brady had no players on Thursday night, one player on Saturday and one player in primetime.  Hold on, I'm being told that Brady did indeed have a player on Thursday.  Apparently Keenan Allen did play for both Brady and the Chargers, but he only scored 2.6 points.  Woof.  My apologies.  Their primetime game is Sunday night, so this will be finished before going into Monday. From weeks 1-13, Tyler outscored Brady 8 of the 13 games. Tyler averaged 3.715 more points per game than Brady, but Brady's median score is 8 points higher than Tyler's median score. Tyler had a higher season high score (184 to 171), and Brady had a higher season low score (92 to 81). Their IQR score is only 4 points apart, and their Q1 and Q3 scores are close, so they have roughly the same consistency all season.  I set a check at how many times teams scored over 150.  Tyler did it 3 times, Brady did it twice (regular season only).  If you include the playoffs, Tyler gets to 4.  I'm not sure where Brady would be because he sat all of his players. Tyler averaged 20 points more weeks 1-4, Brady averaged 10 points more weeks 5-8, and Tyler averaged 2 points more weeks 9-13.  Tyler has the higher cieling and the lower floor, and with Brees coming back this week, that puts Kamara back into a ceiling player, so I'll pick Tyler to win this week.

At the time of publication, Trevor is projected to win by 3, and Tyler is projected to win by 1 Brady is projected to win by 6.  I went back to double check my original numbers and Josh Allen scored a TD to give Brady the projected edge.

Anyway, best of luck to the four teams that matter.  For the rest of us losers, there's always next year.


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