Monday, November 28, 2016

One Week to Go

I will try and be as accurate as possible with the tie-breaker scenarios, but as that requires math with numbers that are still changing, some of the numbers will be off.  None of the outcomes of the games should change, so records will be accurate.

Chad (9-3)
Skyler (8-4)
Brady (6-6)
Geoff (4-8)

Matt (7-5)
Rob (6-6)
Trevor (5-7)
Ren (1-11)

Kyle (8-4)
Jordan (7-5)
TJ (6-6)
Tyler (5-7)

Chad essentially has the #1 seed locked up.  Even if he loses next week, and Kyle and Skyler win, they would have to outscore him by so much that it's very unlikely.  Kyle scored so much this week over Jordan that he appears to have locked up the #2 seed and his division.  Even if he loses next week, and Jordan wins, Jordan would have to outscore him by 60 points to overtake him.  It's obviously not impossible since Kyle outscore Jordan by 75 this week, but I don't think it's likely to swing back that heavily towards Jordan.

Matt has also most likely won his division.  Matt has an 80 point lead over Rob, so Rob would have to win, Matt would have to lose, and Rob would have to outscore Matt by 80 points.  Again, not likely, so I'm saying Matt won the division.  Skyler has also locked up a playoff spot. With only 1 game to go, the only person who can tie/pass him that hasn't likely won his division is Jordan.

Speaking of Jordan, if he wins, he is in.  If he wins and Skyler loses, he can jump up to the 4th seed. If he loses, he could still get in, but it would depend on what the other 6-6 teams do.  If they all lost, he would still get the 5th seed. If they all won, and Jordan lost, TJ would definitely jump him, but Brady and Rob are behind him by 75-90 points -- so it would be hard for them to pass Jordan.

If one of the 6-6 teams wants to guarantee his spot, he needs to win, and have the other two 6-6 teams lose.  TJ is playing Kyle, so I give him a 50% chance to win. Rob is playing Ren, so I give him a 70% chance to win.  Brady plays Skyler and is without his best RB, so I only give him a 40% chance to win.  Obviously, what I think means 0%, so whatever.

Currently, the score difference is TJ is up about 116 over Rob, and Rob is up about 40 points ahead of Brady.  If it weren't for competition in the last week, TJ would have the best chance to make it.  Unfortunately for him Rob has next to a gimmee against Ren.

Well that's it for now.  It should be an interesting last week.

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