Sunday, November 20, 2016

Another Week, Another Playoff Update

I have decided to give a mid-game update on the playoff situation since most of the games have been decided.  The assumptions I am making are that Kyle's last player doesn't score him -3 points, that Trevors two players can score him 3 points, and that Jordan's two players don't score him 50 points.  The Jordan one is possible, but I don't see it happening.  For the sake of this update, I will assume they score him 30 points since it will come up in a tie-breaker scenario.

Here are the new records (again given the above assumptions) by division after this week.

Chad (9-2)
Skyler (7-4)
Brady (6-5)
Geoff (3-8)

Matt (6-5)
Rob (5-6)*
Trevor (5-6)
Ren (1-10)
*Rob is ahead of Trevor of 8 points in real life.  After this week is finalized, it will depend on how much Trevor scores, but Rob could see his lead jump up to 40 points.

Jordan (7-4)* [Again, assuming his 2 players score him 30 more points -- which is higher than the projections]
Kyle (7-4) [Assuming his last player scores 10 points, which is what he is projected to score]
TJ **(5-6)
Tyler (5-6)

*Jordan stays ahead of Kyle about 60 points.  He is currently ahead 40, and this week could see him gain another 10-20.
**TJ pulls ahead of Tyler on the tie-breaker of points, which is about 65 points.

So where does this put us?  The "Geoff could 0.01% make the playoffs" scenario is done. As is the "Chad could miss the playoffs if the planets aligned, and having his baby caused him to drop his whole team" scenario.  The North Division has also locked up the first round bye.  I say it that way because Skyler could still hypothetically catch Chad's record (and outscore him by 150 points the next two weeks), and if that were to happen, no one in the South Division could catch Skyler.  That's not going to happen.  Odds are a little better that Jordan or Kyle could catch him and outscore him by 50 and 100 (respectively) in the next two weeks, but that's still not very good odds.

So unofficially, Chad will be the regular season champ.  I may have thrown up in my mouth a little.  Yuck.

Moving on to the most interesting division, let's look at the West. Jordan plays Kyle next week, and the winner of that game will for sure be in the playoffs.  They won't have necessarily won the division, but they will lock up a playoff spot.  On the flip side, the loser of the TJ vs Tyler game will be eliminated from the playoffs next week.  The winner will still have a hard time to get in, but it will be possible.  Let's say TJ wins next week, and Kyle loses, they would go into their final game against each other, Kyle with a one game lead.  If TJ beat Kyle, they would have the same record, but TJ would most likely be ahead by 30-40 points.  That's looking at too far out, and too much can happen, but you get the idea.

The most interesting game after that is Rob vs Trevor.  They are tied at 5-6, but their playoff implications are still a little bit murky. The winner wouldn't lock in a playoff spot, and the loser would most likely be eliminated, though there is a small chance they could survive.  The most interesting storyline from this division would be if Matt lost to Ren, and Trevor beat Rob, then Matt and Trevor would play for the division championship in the last week.  If Matt beats Ren, he will have essentially locked up the division and the playoffs.

The North Division isn't all that exciting.  Chad has like 99.9% chance to win the division -- he 100% wins it if he beats Skyler this week.  Skyler and Brady are currently ranked 5 and 6, and are the last two teams making the playoffs at the moment.  One of them will at least get one more win since they play each other in the last week.  Again that's looking 2 weeks out, but I'm pretty sure the winner of that game will make the playoffs -- it's not certain though.  If Skyler can beat Chad this week, I'm pretty sure he would be in the playoffs (I realize I'm referring to myself in different ways in this post.  When I say "Skyler", I'm referring to the team, not trying to talk in 3rd person.  When I say "I" or "me", that's the writer/narrator.  I do it that way so if anyone is trying to look at the scenarios, they don't see "I will make the playoffs" and have to change it to "Skyler" in their heads.  Moving on.)

If Brady wins, he will be in a very solid spot to make the playoffs.  If he loses, he will still be ahead of the winner of Trevor/Rob, but behind the winner of TJ/Tyler, which would not be an easy position to be in because Tyler beats him on tie-breaker by 40 points and TJ by about 100.

Anyway, that's it for now.  It's late-ish and I'm watching Star Trek.

No comments:

Post a Comment