With the UHSAA not releasing the RPI the last week, people are relying on data they captured almost two weeks ago to have any idea where their team stands. I created my model with the purpose of giving Utah high school football fans something to look at when UHSAA decided to go dark right before the playoffs. I also decided I should try and highlight the scenarios for playoff purposes.
This is infinitely trickier with RPI, because each team playing will be affected by its own game, the games of their previous 8-9 opponents, and the games of those opponents opponents. If I was trying to evaluate every team's situation, I would have to do an impossibly large number of scenarios involving all of the teams I previously mentioned. For the sake of time and sanity, I will simply look at how each team's RPI will be affected by a win or loss, in their last game. The RPI will only be affected by the WP going up or down based on that win, and the OWP and OOWP will only go up or down based on playing the last opponent -- the in-depth version would have a lot more fluctuation in the OWP and OOWP.
I also only plan on looking at teams right near the cutoffs of different tiers. So instead of analyzing all 27 teams in 6A, I'll look at the top seed, the teams right on the edge of getting a bye week, and the teams around the edge of getting a home game or an away game. I will then proceed to do the same from 5A down to 2A.
6A
Corner Canyon has the number one seed locked down. No result can change that. The top 5 seeds get a bye week in 6A. At the moment, American Fork is the 5th seed with an RPI score of 0.63251. Based on the basic tests I am doing, if a team has a score of 0.63 or higher, they should get a bye week. Herriman is in 2nd place at 0.662982. If they lost, and enough teams beneath them all won, Herriman would drop to at least 6th place and miss out on a bye week. Lone Peak is currently in 9th, and they are the lowest team who could still get a bye week if everything goes their way. They would need to win, and for basically everyone in front of them to lose, but they could, in theory, get a bye week.
For the bottom teams, West Jordan (17), Westlake (18), and Jordan (19) each have a chance at moving up and getting the 16 seed (from Davis), which is the lowest slot to get a home game. Only one of those teams could move up though as Fremont looks locked at 15, and no one above Freemont can drop down below 15 either. It looks like everyone at West (20) and below are eliminated from getting a home game. Of course, they could get different matchups based on their seeding, so it still benefits those teams to win and get a better matchup, but they will have to play on the road no matter what.
5A
Salem Hills has the number one seed locked down. No result can change that. The top 6 seeds get a bye week in 5A. At the moment, Highland is the 6th seed with an RPI score of 0.613438. They play Brighton this week, who is currently the 7th seed. Winner will get a bye week. That is a huge game this week. Based on the basic tests I am doing, if a team has a score of 0.61 or higher, they should get a bye week. Provo is in 2nd place at 0.654425, if they lost and enough teams beneath them won, they could miss out on a bye week. Orem is currently in 9th, and they are the lowest team who could still get a bye week if everything goes their way. They would need to win, and for basically everyone in front of them to lose, but they could, in theory, get a bye week.
For the bottom teams, I cannot find any team below 16 seed Maple Mountain who can move up to host a first-round game. It looks like teams from Box Elder (17) on down are playing for pride and better road matchups.
4A
Word of warning: Dixie/4A is why I created my model, so I'm going to spend more time here than with the classifications.
Park City is currently the number one seed. I am not able to find a scenario that they lose the number one seed. However, in the scenarios I try, Park City's RPI score gets very close to Sky View's -- so maybe if every single game in the state goes against what Park City needs, they could drop to the two seed. I am not sure that scenario even exists, so it's pretty safe to say Park City will be the one seed in 4A. 4A is a little different than the other classifications. In the other classifications, if you have a bye week, you will play someone who played the week before. In 4A, there are 4 teams (7-10 seeds) who will earn a bye, but will play against a team in the 2nd round that also earned a bye in the first round. I feel this is a result of too many teams making the playoffs, but that's not the point of this post.
The first cutoff happens at the 6 seed (Pine View). They are currently the last team who will earn a bye, and play an opponent who had to play in the first round. Region 9 has finished playing all of their games, so PV's fate rests in the hands of other teams. If Mountain View beats Tooele (MV currently favored in RPI) and Ridgeline loses to Viewmont (Viewmont is a 5A team), and if Highland loses to Brighton (both 5A teams) PV could drop from the 6 seed to the 7 seed. They would still have a bye week, but they would have to play a team coming off of a bye week as well. If you are wondering why Ridgeline and Highland are involved they are the only teams that PV has played this year that will play this week, so PV's OWP could drop enough if those teams lose that it will drop PV in the standings. If you are wondering why I care so much, I hold a special petty hate in my heart for PV that hasn't gone away in the 12+ years since I graduated, and probably never will. Anyway, Mountain View is the only team from the group of 4 that can jump up past Pine View/Stansbury.
As far as I can tell, Sky View, Green Canyon, and Dixie can't drop out of the top 6 (they can't even drop out of the top 4 spots). Green Canyon would drop below Dixie with a loss, and it looks like Sky View can't drop below the 2 seed. They have an exhibition game this week which has no effect on the RPI calculation.
Tooele is the only team outside of the top 10 who could jump into the top 10 and get a bye week, and Mountain Crest and Snow Canyon appear to be the only teams who could fall out of the top 10. There is a very small chance Desert Hills could fall out, but that would require their opponents to all do terrible, all of Snow Canyon's opponents to do great, and for Mountain Crest and Tooele to win, but I don't want to have to dig in-depth on DH's and SC's opponents to prove if it's actually possible.
The 16 seed looks like it will come down to Ridgeline and Ogden. If Ridgeline wins (against a 5A team) they stay at 16 and will host a playoff game (Ogden), if Ogden wins (against Ben Lomond), and Ridgeline loses, Ogden will move up to 16 and would host Ridgeline the next week. So it would appear that Ridgeline and Ogden will play each other in the first round -- the only question is where.
3A
Based on the fact that there are no bye weeks on the 3A bracket online, two of the eighteen teams won't make the playoffs in 3A. No one has locked in the top seed yet. Manti, North Sanpete, and Morgan all have a realistic chance at the first seed. Juab and Grantsville could get it if they get some help in the OWP/OOWP areas.
Currently, the teams from 7-13 all have a shot at the 7 or 8 seed and hosting a playoff game. I don't know how realistic those chances are, but I found scenarios for Richfield (currently at 13) to move up to a host a playoff game. So all of those teams have a lot on the line.
Looking at the two teams who will be eliminated, there are 4 teams in contention: South Sevier, Emery, Judge Memorial, and Carbon. South Sevier and Carbon play each other this week, the loser is for sure eliminated. If Carbon won and Judge Memorial lost, Judge Memorial would be eliminated. But if Judge Memorial beats Juan Diego, Carbon will be eliminated even if they win. But if South Sevier beats Carbon, Judge Memorial would need to win, as well as needing Emery to lose. The bottom 4 look like a crazy mess, it's getting too late to think about, and I still need to look at 2A.
2A
The number 1 seed is still up for grabs between Beaver and Milford. Beaver has the inside track, but if they lose and Milford wins, Milford gets the one seed. The 3 seed is also up for grabs between Millard and Duchesne. Duchesne doesn't play this weekend, so it all comes down to Millard vs Enterprise. If Millard wins, they get the 3 seed and the bye. If they lose, Duchesne gets the bye and Millard has to play in the first round.
The 8 seed (aka the last team to host a playoff game) is between Monticello and Nort Summit and kind of Kanab (Kanab is currently in 7th, and can't finish worse than 8th). If North Summit wins, they get the 7 seed (they play Kanab head to head), Kanab gets 8, Monticello gets 9. If Monticello loses, then Kanab gets the 7 seed, North Summit gets the 8 seed. and Monticello gets the 9 seed. If Monticello wins and North Summit loses, then Kanab gets the 7, Monticello would get the 8 seed, and North Summit gets 9. It doesn't help that Monticello is playing Rich (who is not so good), so even if Monticello win, it doesn't help them much.
I think those are all the major situations I could find. I'm sorry if I didn't mention your team, or missed something. I plan on publishing the data each night this week after games go final. With 28 games Wednesday, a lot of the data will be finalized on day one, 11 more games wrap up on Thursday, and then 3 more on Friday. So hopefully it should be pretty clear going into Friday where everyone stands.
Best of luck to all the teams this week.
This is infinitely trickier with RPI, because each team playing will be affected by its own game, the games of their previous 8-9 opponents, and the games of those opponents opponents. If I was trying to evaluate every team's situation, I would have to do an impossibly large number of scenarios involving all of the teams I previously mentioned. For the sake of time and sanity, I will simply look at how each team's RPI will be affected by a win or loss, in their last game. The RPI will only be affected by the WP going up or down based on that win, and the OWP and OOWP will only go up or down based on playing the last opponent -- the in-depth version would have a lot more fluctuation in the OWP and OOWP.
I also only plan on looking at teams right near the cutoffs of different tiers. So instead of analyzing all 27 teams in 6A, I'll look at the top seed, the teams right on the edge of getting a bye week, and the teams around the edge of getting a home game or an away game. I will then proceed to do the same from 5A down to 2A.
6A
Corner Canyon has the number one seed locked down. No result can change that. The top 5 seeds get a bye week in 6A. At the moment, American Fork is the 5th seed with an RPI score of 0.63251. Based on the basic tests I am doing, if a team has a score of 0.63 or higher, they should get a bye week. Herriman is in 2nd place at 0.662982. If they lost, and enough teams beneath them all won, Herriman would drop to at least 6th place and miss out on a bye week. Lone Peak is currently in 9th, and they are the lowest team who could still get a bye week if everything goes their way. They would need to win, and for basically everyone in front of them to lose, but they could, in theory, get a bye week.
For the bottom teams, West Jordan (17), Westlake (18), and Jordan (19) each have a chance at moving up and getting the 16 seed (from Davis), which is the lowest slot to get a home game. Only one of those teams could move up though as Fremont looks locked at 15, and no one above Freemont can drop down below 15 either. It looks like everyone at West (20) and below are eliminated from getting a home game. Of course, they could get different matchups based on their seeding, so it still benefits those teams to win and get a better matchup, but they will have to play on the road no matter what.
5A
Salem Hills has the number one seed locked down. No result can change that. The top 6 seeds get a bye week in 5A. At the moment, Highland is the 6th seed with an RPI score of 0.613438. They play Brighton this week, who is currently the 7th seed. Winner will get a bye week. That is a huge game this week. Based on the basic tests I am doing, if a team has a score of 0.61 or higher, they should get a bye week. Provo is in 2nd place at 0.654425, if they lost and enough teams beneath them won, they could miss out on a bye week. Orem is currently in 9th, and they are the lowest team who could still get a bye week if everything goes their way. They would need to win, and for basically everyone in front of them to lose, but they could, in theory, get a bye week.
For the bottom teams, I cannot find any team below 16 seed Maple Mountain who can move up to host a first-round game. It looks like teams from Box Elder (17) on down are playing for pride and better road matchups.
4A
Word of warning: Dixie/4A is why I created my model, so I'm going to spend more time here than with the classifications.
Park City is currently the number one seed. I am not able to find a scenario that they lose the number one seed. However, in the scenarios I try, Park City's RPI score gets very close to Sky View's -- so maybe if every single game in the state goes against what Park City needs, they could drop to the two seed. I am not sure that scenario even exists, so it's pretty safe to say Park City will be the one seed in 4A. 4A is a little different than the other classifications. In the other classifications, if you have a bye week, you will play someone who played the week before. In 4A, there are 4 teams (7-10 seeds) who will earn a bye, but will play against a team in the 2nd round that also earned a bye in the first round. I feel this is a result of too many teams making the playoffs, but that's not the point of this post.
The first cutoff happens at the 6 seed (Pine View). They are currently the last team who will earn a bye, and play an opponent who had to play in the first round. Region 9 has finished playing all of their games, so PV's fate rests in the hands of other teams. If Mountain View beats Tooele (MV currently favored in RPI) and Ridgeline loses to Viewmont (Viewmont is a 5A team), and if Highland loses to Brighton (both 5A teams) PV could drop from the 6 seed to the 7 seed. They would still have a bye week, but they would have to play a team coming off of a bye week as well. If you are wondering why Ridgeline and Highland are involved they are the only teams that PV has played this year that will play this week, so PV's OWP could drop enough if those teams lose that it will drop PV in the standings. If you are wondering why I care so much, I hold a special petty hate in my heart for PV that hasn't gone away in the 12+ years since I graduated, and probably never will. Anyway, Mountain View is the only team from the group of 4 that can jump up past Pine View/Stansbury.
As far as I can tell, Sky View, Green Canyon, and Dixie can't drop out of the top 6 (they can't even drop out of the top 4 spots). Green Canyon would drop below Dixie with a loss, and it looks like Sky View can't drop below the 2 seed. They have an exhibition game this week which has no effect on the RPI calculation.
Tooele is the only team outside of the top 10 who could jump into the top 10 and get a bye week, and Mountain Crest and Snow Canyon appear to be the only teams who could fall out of the top 10. There is a very small chance Desert Hills could fall out, but that would require their opponents to all do terrible, all of Snow Canyon's opponents to do great, and for Mountain Crest and Tooele to win, but I don't want to have to dig in-depth on DH's and SC's opponents to prove if it's actually possible.
The 16 seed looks like it will come down to Ridgeline and Ogden. If Ridgeline wins (against a 5A team) they stay at 16 and will host a playoff game (Ogden), if Ogden wins (against Ben Lomond), and Ridgeline loses, Ogden will move up to 16 and would host Ridgeline the next week. So it would appear that Ridgeline and Ogden will play each other in the first round -- the only question is where.
3A
Based on the fact that there are no bye weeks on the 3A bracket online, two of the eighteen teams won't make the playoffs in 3A. No one has locked in the top seed yet. Manti, North Sanpete, and Morgan all have a realistic chance at the first seed. Juab and Grantsville could get it if they get some help in the OWP/OOWP areas.
Currently, the teams from 7-13 all have a shot at the 7 or 8 seed and hosting a playoff game. I don't know how realistic those chances are, but I found scenarios for Richfield (currently at 13) to move up to a host a playoff game. So all of those teams have a lot on the line.
Looking at the two teams who will be eliminated, there are 4 teams in contention: South Sevier, Emery, Judge Memorial, and Carbon. South Sevier and Carbon play each other this week, the loser is for sure eliminated. If Carbon won and Judge Memorial lost, Judge Memorial would be eliminated. But if Judge Memorial beats Juan Diego, Carbon will be eliminated even if they win. But if South Sevier beats Carbon, Judge Memorial would need to win, as well as needing Emery to lose. The bottom 4 look like a crazy mess, it's getting too late to think about, and I still need to look at 2A.
2A
The number 1 seed is still up for grabs between Beaver and Milford. Beaver has the inside track, but if they lose and Milford wins, Milford gets the one seed. The 3 seed is also up for grabs between Millard and Duchesne. Duchesne doesn't play this weekend, so it all comes down to Millard vs Enterprise. If Millard wins, they get the 3 seed and the bye. If they lose, Duchesne gets the bye and Millard has to play in the first round.
The 8 seed (aka the last team to host a playoff game) is between Monticello and Nort Summit and kind of Kanab (Kanab is currently in 7th, and can't finish worse than 8th). If North Summit wins, they get the 7 seed (they play Kanab head to head), Kanab gets 8, Monticello gets 9. If Monticello loses, then Kanab gets the 7 seed, North Summit gets the 8 seed. and Monticello gets the 9 seed. If Monticello wins and North Summit loses, then Kanab gets the 7, Monticello would get the 8 seed, and North Summit gets 9. It doesn't help that Monticello is playing Rich (who is not so good), so even if Monticello win, it doesn't help them much.
I think those are all the major situations I could find. I'm sorry if I didn't mention your team, or missed something. I plan on publishing the data each night this week after games go final. With 28 games Wednesday, a lot of the data will be finalized on day one, 11 more games wrap up on Thursday, and then 3 more on Friday. So hopefully it should be pretty clear going into Friday where everyone stands.
Best of luck to all the teams this week.
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