Sunday, November 22, 2015

Two Weeks to Go Until the Playoffs

Week 11 is mostly in the books.  We are back to the all important divisional games, and after tonight all of the division winners may be decided.  We will go in order of most likely decided, and then the playoff scenarios.

The South Division:  Trevor will win and Rob will lose this week.  That gives Trevor a two game lead over Rob.  Going off of the projections for tonight, Trevor should also have a 120 point lead in the tie breaker.  So In order for Rob to take the division he would have to win both of his games, Trevor would have to lose both of his games, and Rob would have to outscore Trevor by about 62 per week.  The winning out and losing out could maybe happen, but I definitely don't see him out scoring Trevor by that much in back to back weeks.

The West Division: With Kyle's win and TJ's loss miracle comeback, Kyle should win his division only has a one game lead in his division.  Kyle will have an 80 point lead in the tie breaker of total points though.  Three weeks ago I would have said TJ could be the team to comeback from this, but the injury bug has not been kind to him the last two weeks he somehow won tonight and Jordan's team is terrible.  If they both win next week (week 12), TJ would need to beat Kyle head to head in week 13 by around 80 to win the division.  As long as Kyle wins next week, he should win the division

The North Division: This is the hardest division to look at, and it's not because I did anything important tonight.  I will likely lose lost because Eifert is dumb, but the hard part is what will happen with Brady and Chad's game.  Chad is projected to win by 1.5, but Brady still has a person going right now, so who knows.  If Chad wins, he will have a two game lead over me, but I would still have a 50 point lead on him.  I would need to win out, and he would need to lose out, but outscoring him isn't a big concern since I already have the lead.  Basically Chad needs to lose tonight or I'm mostly hosed.

If Chad were to lose tomorrow, he would only have a one game lead.   We play each other next week, so if he won that matchup he would win the division by having a two game lead.  If I won, it would be tied going into the last week, and anything could happen there.

Now for the wild card playoff spots.  I have a one game lead for the 4 seed and TJ is tied with me record wise, but I have the tie breaker at points, so he has the 5 seed, while Rob has the 6 seed.  He only have a one game lead over Matt and Tyler for that spots.  In terms of point tie breakers though, Matt should have a 90 point lead over Rob, and Rob should only have a 25 point lead over Hukill.  So if Matt can get another win with Rob getting another loss, Matt would move into the 6 seed.  And yes, I am writing off Geoff, Brady, Ren and Jordan.  Though after tonight Geoff will be one game behind Matt and Tyler, and Ren will be 1 game behind Geoff, and hopefully Brady wins and he will also be one game behind Geoff.  Not that he will make the playoffs, but I need him to beat Chad.

Anyway, that is all at the moment about the playoffs.  Other than I really hate Eifert.  Sanu (my guy) scored a TD that was called back, and then Eifert scored like the next play or two. That was around a 14 point swing, and that would have likely got me the win.  Ugh.  Oh well.

**Edits to make up for the fact that TJ came from behind to win after I had written his section and to complain more about Tyler Eifert**

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