So during my paternity leave, I've been watching Star Wars. I have been getting into the deleted scenes and there is a deleted scene from Empire Strikes Back where Yoda and Luke are discussing how the path to the dark side begins with fear. I'm paraphrasing, but Yoda says "Luke, why fear nine the other numbers?", and Luke says "Master, have you been smoking the leaves of the Lahdia plant again?". Yoda responds, "Because 10, 9, 8". And then the really trippy part of the scene is right after when Yoda says "Speaking of 8, a future see I, where most derided episode 8 is". It's truly a mind-blowing scene for so many reasons.
Now that you are distracted by that stupidity, hopefully, you've forgotten that I haven't done write-ups for weeks 8 and 9, and you'll just willingly accept that when you see them below, they are bonus content/recaps from blogs that you've already read but forgotten.
Week 8 Quick Recaps
Skyler vs Matt: Matt won; Weekly bonanza by a narrow margin; Stafford, Godwin, and Metcalf good.
Rob vs Tommy: Rob Tommy won; Weekly Nail-biter; no Monday Night Miracle/Nightmare since Tommy couldn't get a comeback win with the Bills DST; Brady, Harris, Ekeler, and Beasley good. Pittman and stat corrections better.
Chad vs Tyler: Tyler won; Weekly blowout; Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp good.
Kyle vs Brady: Brady won; Monday Night Miracle/Nightmare; Carter, Mixon, and Jones good.
Brandon vs TJ: Brandon won; Jones, Henderson, Cooper, and Brown good -- and also really generic last names.
Jordan vs Trevor: Trevor won; battle of ineptitude, one of two games to not combine for over 200 points; Tannehill and Taylor good.
MVP: Bills DST, their blocked kick, and stat corrections.
LVP: Tom Brady's interception at the end of his game lost him 2 points, Rob lost by 0.64
Luckiest Team of the Week: Tommy was the 3rd highest scorer and wins this award. He went to bed a loser and woke up a winner. Technically he earned the win and the system was just slow, but still, he wins this award.
Unluckiest Team of the Week: Rob was the 4th highest scorer of the week, and also, the whole stat correction thing.
Week 9 Quick Recaps
Skyler vs Rob: Skyler won; Monday night nail biter; Lamar and Kamara good.
Matt vs Tommy: Tommy won; Conner amazing.
TJ vs Trevor: TJ won; Weekly Bonanza (beat Matt and Tommy for this award by 0.8); Cousins and Brown good.
Jordan vs Brandon: Jordan won; Battle of Ineptitude; Dolphins DST good enough.
Tyler vs Brady: Brady won; Weekly blowout (beat Matt and Tommy by .94); Prescott, Mixon, and Pats DST good.
Kyle vs Chad: Chad won; Weekly nail-biter; Allen and Smith good.
MVP: James Conner scoring 40.3 for the highest-scoring team. His season high before this game was 20.6.
LVP: Josh Allen had his season low this game. If he scores his average, Kyle wins.
Luckiest Team of the Week: Jordan was the 8th highest scorer this week, but still won.
Unluckiest Team of the Week: Trevor was the 4th highest scorer this week, but still lost.
Week 9 had a lot of low scores, which also happened in...
Week 10
Game Recaps
Skyler vs TJ: Stop me if you've heard this before, but TJ had a lead going into Monday night, but then lost anyway, so this was the Monday Night Miracle/Nightmare. Deebo put up 30.30 on Monday night to take a 15 point defecit and turn it into a 15 point victory. Unfortunately for TJ, he started the wrong TE, otherwise he would have won this game. TJ had three players (Cousins, Zeke, and the Packers) with 20+ points, while Skyler only had two (Gibson and Samuel), though one of them had 30+. Fortunately for Skyler, his lower end players showed up, whereas TJ was letdown by TJ H0ckens0n.
Tommy vs Jordan: This was the weekly blowout, with Tommy beating Jordan by nearly 65 points. This was made possible by Mahomes having a season high game at 46.24 points, combined with CMC doing 25+ and Mark Ingram turning back the clock to put up 20. Justin Jefferson scored 22.9 and Steffon Diggs scored 30.20, for a combined 53.1 points. The rest of Jordan's team combined for 32.54. It's great to have stars, but even they need help to win -- just ask LeBron.
Chad vs Matt: This game was something else and this is what I want to say to Chad and Matt for all of us who witnessed it. We haven't had a game where both teams scored under 100 since week 10 of last year (they were actually both under 90 last year). This snoozefest of a tickle fight was the battle of ineptitude, but the North won, and that's all I care about. Chad got 45+ combined points from his Eagles stack, while Matt only had Dalvin Cook who break 20. Matt tried to make a comeback on Monday Night behind 3 players, including Stafford and Mitchell, but they weren't able to get the Miracle. They were able to make it close though, so this was the weekly and Monday night nail-biter.
Brady vs Rob: Brady and Rob combined for the Weekly Bonanza, though most of that is thanks to Brady and his 172 points. Brady managed to pull that feat with only three players (Prescott, Lamb, and Williams) in the 25+ point club (two of them Cowboys). It's only fitting the hottest team in the league had the hottest team of the week. Rob didn't have anyone who scored 20+, but had a well rounded team with six players who had scored in the 14-19 range.
Tyler vs Brandon: Tyler put a solid beatdown on Brandon thanks to 75 combined points from Tyreek, Kupp, and the Cowboys DST. Brandon's high scorer was Herbert at 14 points. There isn't much more to say about this game on a micro level. More will be on a macro level below.
Trevor vs Kyle: Trevor got his 3rd win of the season thanks to the 4th highest score of the week and, more importantly, not having his opponent have a great week. Trevor was carried to victory by his Dynamic Duo of Tannehill and Taylor eaching getting 20+ points. Kyle also had two players go 20+ (Allen and Johnson), but unlike Trevor, the rest of his team crapped the bed (four players under 5 points -- Trevor had none of those players).
Award Season
MVP: Deebo for carrying Skyler past TJ on the Monday Night Miracle.
LVP: Stafford picked a bad time to have his lowest game of the season. If Stafford gets his average, Matt wins his game and puts the South in a stranglehold.
Unluckiest Team of the Week: Rob was the highest scoring loser. He was the 6th highest scorer of the week, so not super unlucky, but unlucky all the same.
Luckiest Team of the Week: Chad is the lowest scoring winner (8th highest scoring team of the week), so he wins the award.
This year, I've forgotten to shout out the high and low scorers of the week, and I wanted to bring that back.
Highest Scoring Team of the Week: Brady -- this is Brady's first win of the 2021 season.
Lowest Scoring Team of the Week: Brandon -- this is is Brandon's second 'win' of the season, his other coming in week 4.
2021 High/Low Data
Playoff Implications
Everyone in the North is currently in the thick of the playoff hunt. A whole division has never made the playoffs before, and it likely won't happen this year, but the reason it's even close to happening is because the North has gone 8-0 the last two weeks. It also helps that 0-5 Brady is now 5-5 Brady.
Matt currently has a two game lead in the South division. If everything breaks his way this week, he could be sitting on a 3 game lead with only 3 games to go, and would be a virtual lock to win his division. However, that means he has to win, and everyone in the South would have to lose. That could very well happen as the South is 1-7 the last two weeks
Tyler has a 3 game lead in the West, and if he wins and Jordan loses this week, he will have a 4 game lead with 3 games to go -- aka he will win his division before division games start back up.
Before this year, teams who won 8+ games made the playoffs 100% of the time. Maybe that changes in the future, but odds are that Tyler and Chad could lose out and make the playoffs. If my memory is correct, teams that won 7 games made the playoffs 2/3 of the time, and teams who won 6 games made it 1/3 of the time. I wouldn't be surprised to 6 win playoff teams become a thing of the past with 14 game -- and perhaps the percentage of teams who win 7 games drops to 50%. So there's always a chance Tommy misses the playoffs, or someone else who only gets to 7 wins misses, but if I had to bet, I would say Tommy gets in.
This is the new week where we are all playing someone for the first time in the regular season, so it should be a fun new change. After this week, we get back to our division rivalries, and thats when the playoff seeding will crystalize.
Game Previews
Every matchup, except the last one, has a combined score (combining the seeds) of 11, so there doesn't seem to be any clear favorite for the bonanza or the weekly nail-biter.
Also, since these are the new games, I will look up the record for each matchup in the playoffs to see how meaningful games have gone in the past.
Skyler (4) vs Jordan (7): Skyler has 1 player on Thursday night and 2 players in primetime. He has 0 players on bye. Jordan has 1 player on Thursday night and 0 players in primetime. He has 0 players on bye. Playoff History: Skyler 3 - Jordan 1. Skyler's last win was the first round in 2013, Jordan's last win was the first round in 2016. These teams met in the playoffs every year from 2011-2013, and have played more than every other remaining matchup combined. A win from Jordan means Tyler doesn't win the division.
Chad (2) vs Rob (9): Chad has 2 players on Thursday night and 1 player in primetime. He has 0 players on bye. Rob has 0 players on Thursday night, and 3 players in primetime. He has 0 players on bye. Playoff History: Chad 0 - Rob 1. Chad has never beat Rob in the playoffs, Rob's last win was the semi-finals in 2020. Chad needs a win to make sure he stays a game ahead of Tommy to secure the bye week.
Matt (5) vs Brady (6): Matt has 0 players on Thursday night and 1 player in primetime. He has various people on bye, but it appears only 1 of them is a main starter. Brady has 1 player on Thursday night and 3 players in primetime. He has 0 players on bye. This is the early favorite for the nightly nail-biter and the Monday Night Miracle/Nightmare since there are 3 players on MNF in this game. Playoff History: Matt 0 - Brady 1. Matt has never beat Brady in the playoffs, Brady's last win was in the championship in 2018. This game will have a big affect on the seedings. Thanks to the motion that passed earlier this week, the worst division winner is not guaranteed the 3 seed. So this game could see Matt slip to the 6th seed while still leading the division.
Tyler (1) vs Trevor (10): Tyler has 0 players on Thursday night and 1 player in primetime. He has 2 players on bye. Trevor has 0 players on Thursday night and 1 player in primetime. He has 0 players on bye. Playoff History: Tyler 0 - Trevor 0. These teams have never met in the playoffs. A Tyler win doesn't guarantee he wins the division, but if he wins, the worst he'll do is 3 games up on everyone else with 3 games to go and roughly 150+ ahead on the points tiebreaker
TJ (8) vs Tommy (3): TJ has 2 players on Thursday night and 2 players in primetime. He has 0 players on bye. Tommy has 0 players on Thursday night and 0 players in primetime. He has 0 players on bye. Playoff History: TJ 0 - Tommy 0. These teams have never met in the playoffs.
Kyle (11) vs Brandon (12): Kyle has 0 players on Thursday night and 0 players in primetime. He has 1 player on bye. Brandon has 1 player on Thursday night and 1 player in primetime. He has five players on bye, but I'm sure how many of them would start if they weren't on bye. That number is probably closer to 2 or 3 potentially starters missing. This looks like the battle of ineptitude given their rankings. Playoff History: Kyle 0 - Brandon 0. These teams have never met in the playoffs. They should have played during the regular season where Brandon was in the North division for a year, but due to my excitement of adding Chad back to the league, I made some changes that may have affected history. Either way, I believe Kyle beat Brandon in their regular season matchup. If Kyle loses, he will need everything else to go right to not be eliminated from the playoffs. Brandon can lose and not be elimianted since Matt is only 2 game ahead of him right now.
I think the only person who can officially be elimianted this week is Kyle, and the only person who can officially clinch is Tyler. Other than that, we are all still alive for either our division or for the wild card spots.
I started writing this on Wednesday, and when I told Jocelyn I was 3 weeks behind, she was far more vocal in her shock/outrage than I expected. Also, she was shocked when I was still working on it this morning. So if nothing else, she is on your side that I need to be better about publishing these.
Good luck to everyone but Jordan this week.
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