UHSAA Week 3 RPI

If you are new to my blog and my RPI model, you might want to catch up with last weeks post here.  Now that we are on the same page, here are the updated rankings.

6A

Ranking Team MWP OWP OOWP RPI 1 Corner Canyon 0.4 0.33333333 0.08333333 0.81666667 2 Pleasant Grove 0.4 0.26666667 0.07875599 0.74542265 3 Lone Peak 0.36338123 0.2 0.1525 0.71588123 4 Herriman 0.26666667 0.33333333 0.1 0.7 5 Kearns 0.36521738 0.26797103 0.0525 0.68568841 6 Bingham 0.26666667 0.26666667 0.13365942 0.66699275 7 American Fork 0.24927536 0.32577634 0.08125599 0.65630768 8 Skyridge 0.33695193 0.26797611 0.01666667 0.62159471 9 Syracuse 0.26666667 0.2 0.12236775 0.58903442 10 Riverton 0.26666667 0.2 0.10032609 0.56699275 11 Westlake 0.13333333 0.34333334 0.0886607 0.56532737 12 Jordan 0 0.38169061 0.15 0.53169061 13 West 0.26666667 0.14333332 0.1 0.50999999 14 Weber 0.26666667 0.13333333 0.1 0.5 15 Roy 0.26666667 0.13333333 0.08583333 0.48583333 16 Hunter 0.26666667 0.06666667 0.13583333 0.46916667 17 Northridge 0.13333333 0.22000001 0.105 0.45833334 18 Copper Hills 0.38260869 0 0.06916666 0.45177535 19 Layton 0.13333333 0.21 0.105 0.44833334 20 Taylorsville 0 0.33463767 0.08583333 0.420471 21 Davis 0.13333333 0.13333333 0.13833334 0.405 22 East 0.23613276 0.10196417 0.05 0.38809693 23 Granger 0 0.25797102 0.09782609 0.35579711 24 West Jordan 0.13333333 0.13333333 0.08115942 0.34782609 25 Fremont 0 0.21 0.12666667 0.33666667 26 Cyprus 0 0.25797102 0.0525 0.31047102 27 Clearfield 0 0.2 0.08583333 0.28583333

5A

Ranking	Team	MWP	OWP	OOWP	RPI
1	Woods Cross	0.44000002	0.28666667	0.08583333	0.81250002
2	Farmington	0.42000001	0.28816666	0.08870833	0.796875
3	Springville	0.4	0.28816666	0.05	0.73816666
4	Payson	0.2341525	0.27666667	0.14083333	0.6516525
5	Brighton	0.30666668	0.22000001	0.1	0.62666669
6	Timpview	0.13333333	0.32502395	0.13177145	0.59012873
7	Wasatch	0.26666667	0.2315	0.08583333	0.584
8	Lehi	0.25155268	0.18695652	0.1330625	0.57157169
9	Highland	0.40260872	0.06666667	0.09658333	0.56585871
10	Maple Mountain	0.26666667	0.13333333	0.162875	0.562875
11	Olympus	0.28666667	0.12463768	0.1268116	0.53811595
12	Provo	0.28666667	0.13464278	0.11458932	0.53589878
13	Orem	0.13333333	0.2	0.2	0.53333333
14	Salem Hills	0.28666667	0.15333333	0.08833333	0.52833334
15	Murray	0.40260872	0	0.10532736	0.50793608
16	Box Elder	0.24927538	0.18260869	0.07166667	0.50355074
17	Timpanogos	0	0.36483333	0.12454166	0.48937499
18	Alta	0.2	0.15271394	0.13404267	0.48675662
19	Bonneville	0.13333333	0.26666667	0.04815345	0.44815345
20	Bountiful	0.13333333	0.2	0.10320108	0.43653442
21	Mountain Ridge	0	0.26797102	0.14815218	0.41612319
22	Spanish Fork	0.28666667	0	0.11949276	0.40615943
23	Skyline	0.13333333	0.13333333	0.13241666	0.39908333
24	Viewmont	0.15333334	0.13333333	0.107875	0.39454167
25	Cottonwood	0	0.2	0.05537646	0.25537646
26	Hillcrest	0	0.12463768	0.08333333	0.20797101

4A

Ranking	Team	MWP	OWP	OOWP	RPI
1	Park City	0.46299996	0.26666667	0.01916667	0.7488333
2	Green Canyon	0.41999998	0.20130945	0.06732139	0.68863082
3	Sky View	0.26928556	0.27709957	0.12924104	0.67562617
4	Dixie	0.30966665	0.26666667	0.08365942	0.65999274
5	Ridgeline	0.30966665	0.21	0.13615942	0.65582607
6	Mountain View	0.46299996	0.07666667	0.10032609	0.63999272
7	Ogden	0.13333333	0.35333333	0.105	0.59166667
8	Pine View	0.13333333	0.30816665	0.09083334	0.53233332
9	Tooele	0.13595223	0.21499998	0.1618125	0.51276471
10	Stansbury	0.13333333	0.27928555	0.08234396	0.49496284
11	Cedar	0.15333331	0.22	0.09370833	0.46704165
12	Crimson Cliffs	0.13333333	0.21394299	0.10126182	0.44853814
13	Ben Lomond	0	0.32707625	0.11916667	0.44624292
14	Desert Hills	0	0.22280435	0.13423798	0.35704233
15	Logan	0.13595223	0.11500001	0.10424104	0.35519327
16	Mountain Crest	0	0.21	0.1418605	0.35186051
17	Hurricane	0	0.27928047	0.06784993	0.3471304
18	Cedar Valley	0	0.28666667	0.03333333	0.32000001
19	Bear River	0.13333333	0.05797102	0.12019383	0.31149819
20	Snow Canyon	0.13595223	0.07709957	0.07923913	0.29229093
21	Canyon View	0	0.15333333	0.08681908	0.24015242
22	Uintah	0	0	0.12362499	0.12362499

3A

Ranking	Team	MWP	OWP	OOWP	RPI
1	Manti	0.46299997	0.26040959	0.09843811	0.82184767
2	Morgan	0.44	0.2	0.13676906	0.77676906
3	Richfield	0.26666667	0.315	0.07875	0.66041667
4	Delta	0.13333333	0.46300587	0.055375	0.6517142
5	North Sanpete	0.4	0.07666667	0.1715103	0.64817696
6	Grand County	0.2	0.345	0.08681249	0.63181249
7	Juab	0.30666667	0.21999999	0.08648679	0.61315345
8	American Leadership Academy	0.42	0	0.18676906	0.60676906
9	Grantsville	0.15333333	0.36614277	0.08176906	0.60124516
10	South Summit	0.13333333	0.38633333	0.0525	0.57216667
11	San Juan	0.2896784	0.13224998	0.1193125	0.54124088
12	Carbon	0	0.415	0.1124619	0.5274619
13	Emery	0	0.43	0.0525	0.4825
14	Judge Memorial	0.13333333	0.22	0.08833333	0.44166667
15	Union	0.15333333	0.16483331	0.07666667	0.39483331
16	South Sevier	0	0.28989841	0.08833333	0.37823174
17	Summit Academy	0.17633331	0.1172588	0.075	0.36859211
18	Juan Diego	0	0.16483331	0.11449276	0.27932607

2A

Ranking	Team	MWP	OWP	OOWP	RPI
1	Duchesne	0.42	0.29989841	0.07166667	0.79156508
2	Millard	0.46	0.13333333	0.16325147	0.7565848
3	Beaver	0.483	0.13333333	0.12991813	0.74625147
4	Milford	0.463	0.13333333	0.14370833	0.74004167
5	Enterprise	0.33313016	0.215	0.125	0.67313016
6	Monticello	0.53939047	0	0	0.53939047
7	Gunnison Valley	0	0.44725	0.05	0.49725
8	North Sevier	0.28666667	0.13333333	0.0724746	0.4924746
9	Parowan	0.2	0.215	0.0624619	0.4774619
10	Kanab	0.4	0	0.0618125	0.4618125
11	Rich	0	0.4	0	0.4
12	North Summit	0.13333333	0.115	0.144875	0.39320833
13	Layton Christian	0.13333333	0	0.165	0.29833333
14	Altamont	0	0	0	0

In case you are still here after reading the rankings, let me share a few observations from this week.  

I took longer to release the rankings because there were a few teams playing on Saturday.  I learned after last week that it was important to make sure the data was complete or the information wouldn't look as good.  The example I learned this from was Jordan.  One of their previous opponents played on Saturday last week, so the OWP and OOWP didn't come through.  Once that game went final, Jordan's score went up, and the improved somewhere between 10-15 spots.  So I will wait to release the scores after all of the data has been finalized for the week.

Two of my observations from 2A are about Monticello and Altamont.  Monticello's first two weeks were exhibition games according to the RPI rules, so they didn't have any points last week.  They currently have played one opponent who has given them data for their MWP, but they will need to have played multiple opponents (and their opponents will need to have played multiple opponents) for the OWP and OOWP values to go up from 0.  Altamont appears to have dropped varsity football this year.  Maxpreps doesn't have a link for their varsity games this year, and Deseret News doesn't show their games on their schedule page.

Schools who have played out of state opponents will have a little more volatility to their scores than schools who haven't played out of state opponents.  This is in part to a majority of those out of state opponents starting a week or two later than Utah.  One specific example is Orem.  For their 3rd opponent, they played Skyline out of Idaho Falls.  That was Skyline's 1st game, so they won't be able to contribute any points to Orem's OWP or OOWP for another week.

Looking ahead to next week's schedule, two Utah teams will play on Saturday, so I won't be able to publish this until late Saturday or early Sunday.  Considering I will also need to track out of state opponents, and they also will likely have some Saturday games, Sunday releases will likely be the norm for a while.

Thanks for reading, and please reach out if you have questions, or have any feedback on how to improve the data output.

UHSAA Week 2 RPI

As this is my first post on the subject of the "estimated" RPI standings for Utah high school football, I am going to take a minute to introduce myself and the excel model I created to calculate the RPI that will be used for the season.  If you don't care about who I am, why I did this, or why you should trust my model, skip the next few paragraphs.

First, as you can tell from the blog, my name is Skyler Aitken.  I have cared way too much about high school football in Utah since 2004 (aka my sophomore year), and I enjoy trying to follow along each season.  I am a graduate of Dixie High, and I built my excel model just so I could see how Dixie ranks before the UHSAA releases their official RPI standings.

The important part of my introduction is that for my job I am a technology consultant, which means I work in excel a lot.  The idea of trying to recreate the RPI standings in excel seemed like a fun idea.  The information that went into my work can all be found on this page.  The document is pretty thorough, and I only had to make two assumptions so far.  The first is that out of state opponents will be categorized as "Out of state opponents for sports with 6 Classes" or "Out of state opponents for sports with 5 Classes", even if they have fewer classes (Nevada and Hawaii), or more (you could argue California has 7).  The second assumption is that you can't calculate your opponents winning percentage (OWP) or opponents' opponents winning percentage (OOWP) until you have played the opponent.  If that is confusing, let me use an example with Dixie.  Dixie has currently played Springville and Roy, and has yet to play Pine View.  My model will not include Pine View's information into Dixie's score until after the Dixie vs Pine View game is over.

I should also mention that my model hasn't been tested against the official RPI standings (they don't come out for a month), but I am confident in the logic.  If I am off, it won't be by much.  My biggest concerns are about out of state opponents, how they are scored (as I mentioned in the previous paragraph), and tracking the opponents of the out of state opponents.  Unfortunately, tracking the opponents of out of state opponents (about 200 teams) is a very manual process -- my web scraping abilities are only in excel, and the excel web scraping doesn't work well with desnews.com or maxpreps.com.  So if you are hoping I will do this for some other sports, let me just say it won't be happening.

Thanks for your patience, and now to the reason you are here.

6A

Ranking	Team	MWP	OWP	OOWP	RPI
1	Skyridge	0.351228748	0.4	0.1	0.851229
2	Bingham	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.8
3	Pleasant Grove	0.4	0.4	0	0.8
4	Kearns	0.373913035	0.2	0.215	0.788913
5	American Fork	0.373913035	0.2	0.1	0.673913
6	Northridge	0.2	0.46	0	0.66
7	East	0.2	0.407857	0	0.607857
8	Weber	0.2	0.4	0	0.6
9	Hunter	0.4	0	0.2	0.6
10	Corner Canyon	0.4	0.2	0	0.6
11	Layton	0.2	0.23	0.1	0.53
12	Fremont	0	0.43	0.1	0.53
13	Westlake	0	0.43	0.1	0.53
14	Syracuse	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.5
15	Taylorsville	0	0.4	0.1	0.5
16	West	0.4	0	0.1	0.5
17	Copper Hills	0.4	0	0.1	0.5
18	Riverton	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.5
19	Lone Peak	0.4	0	0.1	0.5
20	Clearfield	0	0.4	0	0.4
21	Cyprus	0	0.4	0	0.4
22	Herriman	0.2	0.2	0	0.4
23	Jordan	0	0.4	0	0.4
24	Roy	0.2	0	0.1	0.3
25	Granger	0	0.2	0.1	0.3
26	Davis	0	0	0.1	0.1
27	West Jordan	0	0	0.1	0.1

5A

Ranking Team MWP OWP OOWP RPI 1 Woods Cross 0.460000023 0.2 0.215 0.875 2 Springville 0.4 0.2645 0.1 0.7645 3 Brighton 0.460000023 0.2 0.1 0.76 4 Farmington 0.430000011 0.2 0.1 0.73 5 Murray 0.430000011 0 0.215 0.645 6 Timpanogos 0 0.43 0.215 0.645 7 Orem 0 0.4 0.2 0.6 8 Box Elder 0.2 0.373913 0 0.573913 9 Provo 0.430000011 0 0.115 0.545 10 Salem Hills 0.430000011 0 0.115 0.545 11 Alta 0.2 0.151229 0.186957 0.538185 12 Olympus 0.430000011 0 0.1 0.53 13 Mountain Ridge 0 0.43 0.1 0.53 14 Payson 0.2 0.23 0.1 0.53 15 Wasatch 0.2 0.2 0.115 0.515 16 Highland 0.373913068 0 0.13225 0.506163 17 Lehi 0.2 0.173913 0.13225 0.506163 18 Timpview 0 0.4 0.1 0.5 19 Maple Mountain 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 20 Skyline 0 0.2 0.24725 0.44725 21 Bonneville 0 0.4 0 0.4 22 Bountiful 0.2 0 0.2 0.4 23 Viewmont 0.230000011 0 0.115 0.345 24 Spanish Fork 0.2 0 0.115 0.315 25 Cottonwood 0 0.2 0 0.2 26 Hillcrest 0 0.2 0 0.2

4A

Ranking Team MWP OWP OOWP RPI 1 Mountain View 0.429999967 0.23 0.115 0.775 2 Sky View 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 3 Dixie 0.264499975 0.4 0 0.6645 4 Ridgeline 0.464499975 0 0.2 0.6645 5 Canyon View 0 0.46 0.2 0.66 6 Cedar 0.229999967 0.43 0 0.66 7 Park City 0.429999967 0.2 0 0.63 8 Hurricane 0 0.46 0.115 0.575 9 Green Canyon 0.429999967 0 0.1 0.53 10 Ogden 0.2 0.2 0.115 0.515 11 Pine View 0 0.4645 0 0.4645 12 Crimson Cliffs 0 0.2645 0.186957 0.451456 13 Stansbury 0.2 0 0.215 0.415 14 Bear River 0.2 0 0.201957 0.401957 15 Mountain Crest 0 0.23 0.1 0.33 16 Tooele 0 0.23 0.1 0.33 17 Ben Lomond 0 0.2 0.115 0.315 18 Desert Hills 0 0.173913 0.075614 0.249527 19 Logan 0 0.23 0 0.23 20 Uintah 0 0 0.23 0.23 21 Snow Canyon 0.203928344 0 0 0.203928 22 Cedar Valley 0 0 0.1 0.1

3A

Ranking	Team	MWP	OWP	OOWP	RPI
1	Juab	0.46	0.23	0.215	0.905
2	Richfield	0.4	0.46	0	0.86
3	Delta	0.2	0.4645	0.13225	0.79675
4	North Sanpete	0.4	0.23	0.115	0.745
5	South Summit	0.2	0.4	0.1	0.7
6	Manti	0.494499962	0.2	0	0.6945
7	Union	0.23	0.46	0	0.69
8	Grand County	0	0.46	0.2	0.66
9	Morgan	0.43	0.2	0	0.63
10	San Juan	0.2	0.2645	0.13225	0.59675
11	Emery	0	0.43	0.115	0.545
12	Grantsville	0.23	0.2	0.115	0.545
13	Carbon	0	0.46	0	0.46
14	American Leadership Academy	0.43	0	0	0.43
15	Summit Academy	0.264499962	0	0.1	0.3645
16	Judge Memorial	0	0.23	0.1	0.33
17	Juan Diego	0	0.23	0.1	0.33
18	South Sevier	0	0	0.1	0.1

2A

Ranking	Team	MWP	OWP	OOWP	RPI
1	Milford	0.43	0.4	0.1	0.93
2	Gunnison Valley	0.2	0.46	0.2	0.86
3	Duchesne	0.4	0.43	0	0.83
4	Beaver	0.4945	0.2	0.1	0.7945
5	Millard	0.46	0	0.1	0.56
6	Enterprise	0.23	0.2	0.1	0.53
7	Parowan	0.2	0.2	0.115	0.515
8	Layton Christian	0.2	0	0.2	0.4
9	North Summit	0.2	0	0.2	0.4
10	Kanab	0.4	0	0	0.4
11	North Sevier	0.23	0	0	0.23
12	Altamont	0	0	0	0
13	Monticello	0	0	0	0
14	Rich	0	0	0	0

Part of the reason the UHSAA won't release their numbers for another month is that two games worth of data isn't much to go on, and could lead to overreaction.  So don't worry if your team doesn't have a high score.

I want to address some misconceptions I heard today while I was watching the Dixie game online.  The first is that the margin of victory has no effect on the RPI score.  So if a team chooses to take a knee near the endzone, they won't be punished for not running up the score.  The second thing is that there aren't bad losses when it comes to losing to a lower class.  For example, 6A Roy lost to 4A Dixie.  Their winning percentage tonight was 0.  They would also have a winning percentage of 0 if they lost to a 6A team or a 2A team.  So tonight's loss wasn't a bad loss in that aspect.  This would be a bad loss for Roy if Dixie lost the rest of their games this season, but that has nothing to do with classification.

This does lead to one other thing I want to mention, and that's about teams playing down.  If you haven't read the UHSAA RPI link from before, let me mention how playing a lower class works.  Each class is 15% apart for their game score.  So in the case of Roy and Dixie, they are two classes apart, so Dixie's win was worth an extra ~30%.  However, if Roy had won they would not have incurred a ~30% penalty, because it was their first game down.  

UHSAA allows each team to play (and win) down one time without the class penalty, which I actually like because it encourages the 6A teams to still play down at least once a year.  Once you win a second game against a lower opponent, that's when your wins are penalized.  I will continue using Roy as an example.  Let's say they played Crimson Cliffs (another 4A school) next week.  Losing to Dixie didn't incur the penalty, so they could beat Crimson Cliffs next week, and it would count the same as a win against a 6A team.  However, if Roy had beat Dixie (again, no penalty for the first win), and then beat Crimson Cliffs, their win would be worth ~30% less than a win against a 6A team.

So going forward, if a team is thinking of playing down once a year they don't need to worry about being penalized.  If a team wants to play down twice in a year, they should make sure to play the lower class opponent first.  If a 6A team beat a 5A team and then a 2A team, they would receive no penalty for the first win and a 43% penalty for the second win.  If the order was switched, and they beat the 2A team and then the 5A team, they would receive no penalty for the first win and only a 15% penalty for the second one. 

The other thing that is key to playing down is to beat good opponents as that account for 40% of the RPI score.  Currently, Juan Diego is near the bottom in 3A, but we all know that's not going to last all season.  By the end of the year they will have a good score, and the teams who have beaten them so far (both 4A schools) will get credit for beating a 4A team (even though Juan Diego is 3A), and will get a good OWP and OOWP from Juan Diego by the end of the season.  This season Juan Diego plays four opponents from higher classifications, which is a trend that will likely continue.  Given their location to bigger schools, their history of winning, and their lower classification, all of the bigger schools in the area who are worried about securing a bye week in the playoffs would be smart to try and get Juan Diego on the schedule as their first (or only) game against a team from a lower classification.

2019 Draft Review

We had our draft today, and as tradition dictates, I found some post-draft rankings that I will put up here.  Usually, they are pretty good rankings, but this year they are terrible.  Not sure why they were so off this year.

The rankings according to Footballguys from high to low.

Tyler -  http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=3pR2kPyj98VE
Matt - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=8j4Ww43465ts
Ren - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=BH263aT3ED5Q
Tommy - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=eZy2H756P4W3
Brady - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=3IBjU2h77td8
TJ - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=2M7jma5CLv98
Rob -  http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=9C8S3b2e9rSw
Brandon - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=web69q8625Ac
Jordan - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=85366mtkk4D7
Kyle - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=296eSbA4HCw7
Trevor - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=2y57XhwQR2ix
Skyler - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/team.php?team=43Be3s95cD82

Like I said, they are off this year, even at 4for4.  Tyler is usually in last and I am near the top.  I must have made some typos.  Just in case the names aren't clear, the order is Rob, Tyler, Brandon, Kyle, TJ, Ren, Matt, Brady, Jordan, Skyler, Tommy and Trevor.  The rankings clearly have a bias against me and Trevor.



FantasyPros also has a bug where they like Trevor's team, but leave mine in the dust.  I thought they would have fixed the issue with both of us, but apparently not.  Hopefully, you now know whose team is whose, though there were two name changes (Brandon and Kyle).


This exercise wasn't really informative, but maybe some of you were entertained.  Best of luck to everyone this season.