Wednesday, December 29, 2021

Week 16: My Lawyer Made Me Change the Name of this Post so I Wouldn't Get Sued

I had a different title, but when I tried to format some text during the post, my original title got deleted and I couldn't remember what it was.  It wasn't anything clever, but I couldn't think of anything better, and decided to go with this title.

In a week that could have been dramatic and nail-biting, we got boring chalk, which is actually the norm for the championship game.  The last time the championship wasn't the 1 vs 2 was 2018, and the last time before that was 2013. I guess that means usually the best teams make the finals, and that it takes a special run to break that mold.  I'm sure that wouldn't be the case if we expanded the playoffs to 8 teams, but I like our current setup.  It makes the regular season mean more and gives you a big boost for being a top team in the league and earning a bye.

Game Recaps

Skyler (2) vs Brady (3): What started out as an interesting game Thursday night (Deebo playing well, but Brady's players vulturing TD's), turned into a blowout Sunday morning and afternoon.  Brady had 2 Sunday night players combine for nearly 50 points, but at that point it was too little too late to make a meaningful difference in the game. Deebo kicked things off for Skyler by hitting the 20+ point threshold, and then received reinforcements from the Bucs DST (20) and Adams (33.4).  The heaviest hitters for Skyler this week were the waiver wire acquisitions of Justin Jackson (34.2) and Joe Burrow (46.1). Jackson had roughly 40 points on the season before this game, and while Joe Burrow didn't receive nearly half of his season points in one game, he set his season-high total (and his career-high total as well) by nearly 50%. 

Outside of Dak Prescott (39.3), Brady did not have anyone score over 20 points, and only 4 of his other 8 players hit double digits. This loss ends Brady's chance of 3 championships in 4 years (would have been a record), and of a repeat championship, but this season is proof that Brady's recent success wasn't a flash in the pan, and that he has turned the page on his early career failures.  He will look to build on this momentum next year as he battles Rob for "Most Dominant Team of the Last Half Decade".  Right now I give Brady a narrow edge as they each have 2 championships, but Brady has an additional championship appearance and semi-final appearance. If either of them wins a 3rd title next year, they automatically become a dynasty in my mind.

Tyler (1) vs Tommy (5): The game started out well for Tyler with Rodgers getting 25, but Tommy kept sticking around, even when it looked like Tyler would pull away.  Tyler got nervous there for a while, especially with Tyreek not playing well, but Mahomes eventually got pulled, and the Jets DST came back down to earth. Cooper Kupp (21.3) and M.Andrews (26.5) kept Tyler within striking distance (6 points behind), and then the Cowboys DST brought the game home by putting up a season-high 27 points.  Season-high makes it sound like they haven't done as well this year, but they had a 26 point game back in week 10, and a 25 point game two weeks ago.

The Jets kept their base points for a while, and may have inflated Tommy's projection, but they eventually settled at a respectable (for a DST) 10 points.  Mahomes was Tommy's only player to score 20+ (28.32 to be exact).  Unfortunately, Tommy was a victim of Mahomes own success as the Chiefs blew out the Steelers, and Mahomes came out early.  Tommy had 5 total players score between 10-19.98, but he didn't have anyone else put up a big game to combat Tyler's big game players.

Award Season (Playoff Matchup Only)

MVP: The Cowboys got Tyler the win in a primetime game.

LVP: No one player would have got Brady or Tommy the win, so this award is hard this week. We will give it to Chuba Hubbard for scoring less than one point while being the 'lead' back for Carolina.

Highest Scoring Team of the Week: Skyler

Lowest Scoring Team of the Week: Tommy

There are no real lucky or unlucky teams this week as the top two scoring teams won.  Skyler is the closest thing to lucky as his two waiver wire pickups combined for 80.3 points, but he still would have won without those players. Brady was unlucky to lose Fournette, but Rojo had a 16 point game for Brady in his absence.  Tyler was unlucky to have a tired/limited Tyreek, but he still won anyway.

Playoff Update

Tommy finishes his best season with a loss, and Brady takes a narrow lead over Rob for 'team of the half decade', though next year could still decide it. Before this week, Skyler, Chad, Brady, and Rob were the only teams to appear in 3 championship games. Tyler has now joined the group, for his first appearance since his 2013 title run. Skyler and Brady were playing for the record 4th appearance with Skyler being victorious and making his first appearance since his 2015 title run.  Tyler is looking to join Skyler, Rob, and Brady in the 2x Championship club, while Skyler is looking to move up to 4x Championship.  Whoever wins this year will set the 'record' drought for the longest time between championships. Right now Skyler holds this record at 3 (won in 2011, and then not again until 2014). The real record is the shortest time between first and second, and Brady and Rob are both tied at 2 years (aka they won their first, didn't win it the next year, but won it the year after).  If Tyler wins, the record will go up to 8 (2013 to 2021), and if Skyler wins, the record will go up to 6 (2015 to 2021). I don't want to speak for Tyler, but if the Utes win the Rose Bowl and he wins the Championship all on the same weekend, that's got to be in the top 5 for the greatest weekends of his life. When asked for a comment about his all-time great weekends, Tyler put on a hoodie and mumble grunted "We're on to Dixie".

Game Previews

There are no Thursday night games this week

Tyler (1) vs Skyler (2): Tyler has 1 player in primetime, while Skyler has 2 players in primetime. In their lone matchup this year, Tyler thrashed Skyler 169 to 102. If we look at all of their games this year and put them head to head, Tyler leads 9-7.  All-time, Skyler leads their series 8-4, though the last 8 years they are even at 4-4. They have only matched up one other time in the playoffs, in the semifinals of the inaugural 2010 season. Speaking of the greatest weekends of Tyler's life, the one time they played in the playoffs, Tyler was on his honeymoon on a cruise ship. Tyler only trusted one man to handle his team while he was away, and that man was Skyler.  So in a way, Skyler won the last time they played in the playoffs, but Tyler's team is officially 1-0 in playoff matchups between these two teams.

The official projections have Tyler winning by fewer than 2 points.


FantasyPros gives weekly Power Rankings, with the top score being 100. Below are the rankings for the league for week 17.


FantasyPros also does weekly projections.  They also have Tyler winning by fewer than 2 points.

Our league history paints a slightly different picture, with the underdog winning the fantasy championship a majority of the time. Underdogs (by seeding, not by projections) are 9-2 in the championship, which should give Skyler some hope.

So it should be a good, close, and intense matchup, with the championship likely riding on how much Aaron Rodgers spreads the ball or focuses on Davante Adams on Sunday night.  Good luck to everyone in the consolation bracket, and to anyone else not named Tyler.

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