The Triumvirate of 8-win teams became the Holy Trinity of 9-win teams (in the name of a 2-time champ, a pre-historic champ, and a championship virgin, amen) and look to be the clear favorites in the playoffs. I thought Matt locked up his bye week, but there's a small possibility that Trevor can win out, while Matt loses out, and Trevor catches Matt on the points tie-breaker. Matt's win guarantees the North will not get a bye in the playoffs this year. I was guessing it was the first time in a long time, but it turns out the last time they missed out on a bye week was 2022. TJ and Jordan are in a heated battle for the other bye week, and they play each other this week. This week won't settle it, but the winner will be set up nicely.
Lastly, it is mathematically confirmed that the members of the first presidency of fantasy football are all in the playoffs and that Tommy is officially eliminated. That means there are 3 spots left with 8 teams fighting for said spots over the next 3 weeks.
Game Recaps
Skyler vs Jordan: This game was 0.58 away from being a 60-point blowout. Yet somehow, this isn't even the biggest blowout of the week. Jordan had 4 people (A Rodg, Saquon, Jacobs, and the Texans DST) score 20+, Skyler had 0. Jordan had only 2 people score in single digits, Skyler had 5. Not much more to say from this breakdown as Jordan took the lead during the Sunday morning game, and never gave it up again.
Scott vs Rob: In the second of the four blowouts this week, Rob beat Scott by a solid 44 points. It was a close back-and-forth game for a while, but then Rob took off like a rocket near the end of the Sunday afternoon game and never looked back. Rob had 3 people (Jameis, Jennings, and Higgins) score 20+ points, while Scott had 0. In a strange turn, Rob had more people score single digits than Scott, (4 to 3), but Scott's 3 combined for 10.2, while Rob's 4 combined for 24.3 aka Rob's single-digit players averaged double the points of Scott's single-digit players. This was the battle of ineptitude this week as it was the only match to not break the the combined 240 mark.
Tyler vs Trevor: This is the third of the four blowouts, and it was actually the blowout of the week. Trevor beat Tyler by 59.62, which was only 0.2 points more than what Jordan beat Skyler by. This blowout was made possible by Trevor putting up a very good 162.6 points. Why was it not great you ask? Find out in the next recap. Back to this recap, Tyler wasted a 35-point (34% of his points this week) game from Joe Mixon, while Trevor had 3 people score 20+ points. Herbert was 20+, Breece scored 30+ and Taysom went for 40+. Tyler didn't do himself any favors by having 5 players score in the single digits, while Trevor only had 3. Trevor led this one comfortably wire to wire.
Matt vs Brady: Thankfully not every game was a blowout, and this was one of the two games to be decided by less than 10 points. This was also the bonanza of the week as this was a matchup of the 1st and 3rd highest-scoring teams. Brady took the lead Thursday behind a solid Eagle and Commander and then watched as his Lions put up some great points. Unfortunately, those Lions stopped putting up points, and Matt's Lion took off. Brady still had the lead the whole week up until JK Dobbins went on his crazy end-of-game TD run, which gave the Chargers and Matt the win. The twist of the knife was when Dalton Schultz played on MNF and ran up the score ever so slightly. Matt had three 20+ point scorers (Goff, JSN, and Chase) while Brady also had 3 (Allen, Monty, ARSB). Each team also had 3 people in the single digits, and neither one had someone score <5. The combination of their big 3 (each of the 20+ people) was less than 2 points apart (in Matt's favor). The combination of their small 3 (single-digit people) was less than 3 points apart (in Brady's favor). The 3 middle people favored Matt by 10 points, which got him his win.
TJ vs Tommy: The 4th blowout of the week was TJ beating Tommy by over 31 points. For two brief moments, Tommy had a lead, but TJ didn't let it last long. TJ had 3 people score 20+ (Burrow, Puka, and Bowers), while Tommy only had 1 (Nix). Fun fact, a few weeks ago, a very good source tells me that Tommy was offered Nix but turned down the offer. Turns out he made the smart move to simply scoop him up off the waiver wire. Anyway, both teams had 4 players score in the single digits. Tommy's scored 12 fewer points than TJ's, which explains some of the loss, but the much bigger margin was in the 20+ point group.
Kyle vs Brandon: This was the closest game of the week, so it will get the nail-biter of the week award. There was no nightly nail-biter on Monday and no Monday Nightmare/Miracle, so we'll say those awards go to this battle. There was some back and forth early, and then Brandon took a big lead on Sunday night. Unfortunately, that big lead was his defense, and they slowly got whittled down while McConkey slowly went up for Kyle. Their paths crossed late in the game, and unfortunately for Brandon, there was no last-minute pick-six to give him a tie game, which would have been a first in league history. Unfortunately for Brandon, he missed the announcement that Kittle was out. Brandon mentioned to the group that Kincaid would have gotten him a tie, which would have been hilarious. Sadly, it didn't happen. It would have been great had their been a tie for the King of the Court, but Kyle is the undisputed King.
Award Season
MVP: Dobbins and McConkey had the late-game heroics to seal their close wins, but Boswell doubled his average while also kicking three 50 yard FG's in one game (6 total in the season before this week) wins the award this week
LVP: From the same matchup the LVP will go to the Chargers. They were averaging over 11 points a game but only put up 2 (season low) in a game decided by 8. Or maybe the award should go to not being on top of roster management?
Luckiest Team of the Week: Kyle was the lowest-scoring winner (7th total points), and he won off some last-minute heroics against a guy who missed that his TE was out. The stars lined up, and he took advantage of it.
Unluckiest Team of the Week: Brady was the 3rd highest scorer, and lost by less than 10 points. A big part of that is thanks to Goff not throwing to Brady's players, and Dobbins scoring a last-second TD.
Highest Scoring Team of the Week: Matt by 4 points
Lowest Scoring Team of the Week: Skyler goes back-to-back and gets the award this week.
King of the Court: Kyle takes it from Brandon. It will now reside in the West until the playoffs. There's an off chance that Kyle (or Tyler) could have the crown, and still miss the playoffs. If that is the case, I haven't decided how to track it during the consolation. I don't normally cover the consolation in the blog, but those games matter for draft picks, and they feel like they should matter for the King of the Court. Hopefully, this matter resolves itself before we get there.
Game Previews
Skyler (8) vs Tommy (12): Skyler has 1 player on Thursday and 2 players in primetime. He has 1 player on bye. Tommy has 1 player on Thursday and 0 players in primetime. He has 2 players on bye. So much ineptitude this game.
Jordan (3) vs TJ (1): Jordan has 1 player on Thursday and 1 player in primetime. He has 4 players on bye. TJ has 1 player on Thursday and 3 players in primetime. He has 5 players on bye. This is the front-runner for the bonanza
Kyle (5) vs Tyler (11): Kyle has 2 players on Thursday and 1 player in primetime. He has 3 players on bye. Tyler has 0 players on Thursday and 2 players in primetime. He has 3 players on bye. There's a shot at the battle of ineptitude here as they are the other 2 teams (with Tommy and Skyler) to be under 1,300 points for the season.
Matt (2) vs Rob (6): Matt has 0 players on Thursday and 2 players in primetime. He has 3 players on bye. Rob has 0 players on Thursday and 3 players in primetime. He has 1 player on bye.
Scott (10) vs Brady (5): Scott has 2 players on Thursday and 2 players in primetime. He has 2 players on bye. Brady has 0 players on Thursday and 1 player in primetime. He has 3 players on bye.
Brandon (9) vs Trevor (4): Brandon has 0 players on Thursday and 3 players in primetime. He has 1 player on bye. Trevor has 1 player on Thursday and 1 player in primetime. He has 3 players on bye.
Playoff Scenarios
Matt, TJ, Jordan -- In
Tommy -- Out
Scott, Brandon, Tyler -- These are the 4-7 teams. If they lose and if 2 of the 4 teams that have 5 wins (Brady, Skyler, Rob, and Kyle) get to 6 wins, they will be behind the 6 seed by 2 games with only 2 games to go. It would be quite a hole to dig out, but not impossible. They cannot mathematically be eliminated this week, but a loss makes it very hard for them to come back.
Brady, Skyler, Rob, and Kyle -- The 5-6 teams can't clinch or be eliminated this week.
Trevor -- The lone 6-5 team, if he wins and all the 5-6 teams lose, he will have a 2 game lead with 2 games left to go. He wouldn't mathematically clinch, but he would be in a great spot.
Divisions and Seeding
West: TJ and Jordan are both fighting for the bye week, and this week sees them play head-to-head. The winner will take a commanding lead. TJ currently leads the tiebreak by around 65 points. A win this week would see him move to a 1 game lead and a likely 70+ point lead. He wouldn't guarantee himself the division, but it would be hard for Jordan to catch up. If Jordan wins, he would have the same one-game lead, but he would likely still be behind on points, and if TJ were to sneak a win back, he would be back in the lead over Jordan,
South: Matt will win the division once he wins a game or Trevor loses a game. Even if Trevor wins out and Matt loses out, Trevor would also need to overcome an 80+ point deficit to beat Matt on a tiebreak. Matt's at >99% to win the division.
North: Anyone but Tommy can still win. This will likely come down to the wire. As mentioned above, this division cannot get a first-round bye. Depending how weird this gets, we could see the division winner be the 7th seed overall, but still make the playoffs as a division champion. It's not likely, but it's possible.
Mail Bag Questions
Hey Commish, I'm insecure about my team record, but I noticed the top two members of the Division of Champions have the same record as me and I want to dunk on their whole division during a down year where they all have a losing record after week 11. Can you let me know if any other division has been this bad before? (edited slightly from the original submission) - Anonymous
Hey Commish, I'm insecure about my team record, but I noticed the top two members of the Division of Champions have the same record as me and I want to dunk on their whole division during a down year where they all have a losing record after week 11. Can you let me know if any other division has been this bad before? (edited slightly from the original submission) - Anonymous
Hey Anonymous, I'd hate to help you out, but here you go. Back in 2021, everyone in the South division had a losing record. If you don't remember much about that year, that was the first time everyone in the North made the playoffs -- the first and only time to date that every team from one single division made the playoffs. It was also the first year of the expanded schedule. The South also did the same thing in 2018, and the North pulled it off in 2011. So congrats to the West for never having everyone suck all at the same time. Another fun fact that you didn't ask for, but I wanted to make sure to include, 2011, 2018, and 2021 were all years that a team from the North won a championship. We shall see if history repeats itself.
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