Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Fantasy Football Playoff Scenario

It's that time of year again where I go overboard on analyzing my fantasy football league and figure out what can happen for everyone.  I don't know if I'm the only one who cares enough to do this or if I'm the only one who knows the tie breakers enough to do it (most wins, and any tie in wins is broken by highest points scored).  So with two games to go in my STG League, here are the scenarios broken by person.  And I'll do this again next week when things are much clearer with only one week left.

I am Batman - Chad:
This all actually came up because Chad texted me today to talk about this.  He was worried that Ren and Rob would both get first round byes.  I assured him that can't happen because only division winners can get first round byes.  Even if the wild card has the 2nd best record, he doesn't get a bye.  So Chad has our division and a first round bye locked up.  He is 3 games ahead of Brady for the division lead, and he is 3 games ahead of Tyler and Kyle in the West Division, and so he is guaranteed a first round bye.  Best Case Scenario (BCS): #1 seed with a bye.  Worst Case Scenario: #2 seed with a bye.  Chad should buy an RG3 jersey for Christmas and give money to RG3's charity.

Rob Dogo - Rob:

Always a bridesmaid, never a bride, Rob might go the distance this year (but we say that every year), but getting a first round bye would help.  He is tied in record with Ren, but he has a near 120 point lead in the tie breaker.  Assuming he beats Trevor this week (the second worst team) he will have a final week showdown with Ren.  Ren plays the worst team this week (Matt) and if Ren wins that game then the Division Championship (and bye) will be between them week 13.  Fortunately for Rob he can lose to Trevor as long as he beats Ren because he has so many points that Ren shouldn't be able to catch up.  BCS: #2 seed with a bye. WCS: #4 seed playing the team that barely squeaked in.

El Gordo - Ren:
Ren's fate is tied with Rob, so if you read the above paragraph, you know what is going on with Ren.  basically he has to win out.  If he loses once, he also needs Rob to lose once.  If they finish with the same record, Ren needs to outscore Rob by 65 points the next two weeks to pull ahead in the tie-breaker.  But not likely.  He controls his own fate (as much as you can control it in fantasy football). BCS: #2 with a bye. WCS: #4 playing a crap team.  Like Rob, he has a decent scenario either way.

Well those 3 have playoff spots locked up and two of them are battling for the bye.  I love how our schedule has worked out this year.  You will see why as I explain all the other scenarios.  So now that we see our good players who are for sure in, let's look at those who have been eliminated.

Native Americans - Trevor:
Finished last, last year.  Currently 2nd to last right now.  Unless Matt somehow wins against a top 3 team, Trevor can't move to last.  Unless he sits his team.  Which is not allowed.  So if you do Trevor, I will penalize you and have you finish 2nd to last anyways so you can't get the number one overall pick.  That also goes to all the others.  If you are eliminated or have very little shot of getting in, no throwing games to get a better seed.  I get trading away players for draft picks (but the deadline has passed), but sitting your best players is not kosher.  So don't do it. I'm not sure what he considers best or worst because of the shame of taking last but the joy of having the first pick, but he will either finish last or 2nd to last.  I realize now he can finish last if he loses to Matt in the last week, but I'm not going to change my paragraph because it's a great way to lead into no losing on purpose.  But I do feel bad for Trevor.  He has scored the 4th most points, but he gives up a lot of points.

BHers - Matt:
Mathematically eliminated.  Can move up to second in the last week of the season if beats Trevor, or Ren this week, which I doubt.  So the question is Matt, who are you taking with your #1 pick? And who are you taking with Rob's #1 pick?  Matt will have a very enjoyable off-season and shouldn't be in this position next year.  If he is, we know he sucks, or got bit by the injury bug.

Everyone else has a shot to make the playoffs.  Granted, it's a long shot, but it's still a shot.  This list will roughly be in order of those who need the most help to make the playoffs.  So we start with Geoff.

Up 'n Atoms - Geoff:
Geoff needs some serious help. First off, he needs to win out, as soon as he loses, he's done.  He needs Jordan and Konner to lose out (That's not entirely true, because if Jordan and Konner each win a game he could win on a tiebreaker based on points.  But with two weeks worth of points, that is a little hard to look at, especially when he trails Jordan by so little), which is very possible since they don't play each other (like I said, I like how the schedule played out).  So assuming they lose out, Geoff then needs Brady to lose out.  As soon as Brady wins, Geoff is gone.  So he needs to beat Brady this week, and then I need to beat Brady next week.  However, if I beat Chad this week Geoff is eliminated.  If I beat Chad, and Geoff beat Brady, Brady and I would play against each other and the winner would advance, and Geoff would be a game behind.  So to recap, Geoff has to win out, Brady has to lose out, I have to lose to Chad and beat Brady, and if that all happens, Geoff has to make sure he outscores Brady and me (which he currently is over Brady, but only by 25 points, and he's destroying me) plus he needs Jordan and Konner to lose.  That would give him a 6 Seed.  He could get a 5 seed, but the that involves a whole lot of tiebreakers and Jordan and Konner each winning a game, butI don't want to get into too much right now.  Next week.

Dixie - Skyler:
My scenario is a lot like Geoff's.  The West is really crazy, but I need Kyle and Tyler to win out to make my scenario simple. And I would need Brady to lose out, which would be lose to Geoff and myself. If Brady beats Geoff, I need to outscore Brady by like 52 points for 2 weeks to get a tiebreaker.  There is a mess with the West Division, but I don't want to worry about that in comparison to Geoff and I.  I'm looking at a 6 seed if that all happens.

B EZ ON MY SNAX - Brady:
Brady can be #5, #6 or out.  Assuming he wins out, the difference between #5 and #6 is the tiebreaker with the west division winners.  He can lose 1 game and still make it, but that was semi covered in the other scenarios of mine and Geoff's

West Division:
This is a mess.  The top 2 teams are tied at 6-5 and the two bottom teams are tied at 5-6.  If the top 2 teams win out, they make the playoffs as the 3 & 5 seed or 3& 6  depending on the Wild card team in the North.  There is a chance that they could get seeds 3, 5, & 6, but that both Jordan and Konner to win a week, plus it requires Brady to lose both games, me to lose to Chad (but beat Brady).  I am honestly too tired to evaluate them on an individual basis because their division could be: Kyle and Tyler at 8-5, Konner and Jordan at 5-8, or Konner and Jordan at 7-6, and Kyle and Tyler at 6-7, or someone...you know what, I'm done with it.  Just let it be known it's a mess, if anyone of them wins out, he makes it.  We can really look at this next week. 

So this post has cleared up the obvious 5 people (chad, ren, rob, matt, and trevor).  If the schedule hadn't worked out like it did,  the West division could snake a bye game, but they cant because either Rob or Ren will get to 9 wins.  Someone from the West will for sure make the playoffs as the division champ, but from there on out, it gets messy quick.  We'll have this talk again late Monday next week or early Tuesday. 

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