Week 14: First Round of the Playoffs

So the first round of the playoffs is over (halfway over in my two ESPN/high school leagues).  So the first half of my auction (ESPN/High School friend) league, I beat Tyler by 75, but he has next week to match and/or beat me.  If he doesn't beat me by 75, I will advance to the championship.  In my other ESPN/High School friend league, I lost to Jon.  If I don't beat him by 53 next week he advances to the championship.

In my ESPN/work league I managed to sneak out a 10 point come-from-behind victory thanks to Julio Jones.  I was the 7-seed and I beat the 2-seed.  It felt great.  With that win, I make the semi-finals in every league. It's rather exciting.  Having a shot at the championship in every league is about all you can hope for.  In all reality, fantasy football is all about luck, and now I need just two more weeks of luck to get the championship trophy.  Right now I'll take one lucky week, and then maybe ask for another after I get the first wish.

And do you know why I need that luck? Because I'm playing my playoff arch-rival Chad.  In the regular season, Brady is enemy number one.  However, come playoff time, Chad is enemigo numero uno.  He has knocked me out of the playoffs 2 years in a row, and I am sick of it.  I'm really hoping that the third time is the charm.  So I got my predictions right last week.  Jordan beat Tyler, and Chad beat Trevor.  They tried to make a game of it.  Chad had something like a 45 point lead, and then ended up only winning by 1 point exactly.

So next week is me against Chad, and Ren against Jordan.  The matchups are interesting for Chad and me.  Roethlisberger should have a field day against Atlanta.  Meaning he won't.  Or if he does it will all be to Brown.  The only place I feel like I have an advantage over Chad is my Tight End and my flex (Gronk and Evans).  The matchups make everything else even.  Murray was terrible against Philadelphia 2 games ago, which puts him about equal with Lynch and his terrible game against the 49ers.  I won't get into any more depth, but I'm not comfortable picking myself in this matchup.  I might pick Ren to win, but it's also close.  The QB's are about equal, Ren has better RB's, and has the better TE.  Jordan has the edge at WR, but Ren's are getting better.  Still, advantage Jordan.  Another big advantage for Jordan is he has Ren's QB's top WR.  If that made sense, good for you.  You are a rather smart person.

Anyway, that's it for this week.  I need to go to bed or something.  Not that there is much going on this week.  I've done basically everything I need to before finals.  It feels good -- until the finals start that is.  Ugh.  Well finals got me out of the fantasy football mood.  Peace out.

Week 13: End of the Regular Season

As Tyler asked me about several times during the year, the quest is finally over.  I lose in the last week and my 12-0 record goes to 12-1.  As long as I go undefeated in the playoffs that's all that matters.  There was no Konner beating out Hukill for the last spot, so everything fell as it looked like it would 2 weeks ago.  Here is the recap just in case.  I got the 1 seed, Ren got 2, Jordan has 3, Trevor has 4, Chad has 5, and Tyler has 6.  Trevor plays Chad and Jordan plays Tyler.  The winner of Chad/Trevor plays me, and the winner of Tyler/Jordan plays Ren.

On an interesting note, before this year, Chad's 2012 team was the worst team to ever make the playoffs (based on points scored).  He was the 2nd worst that year as far as total points, though he did make it to the semifinals.  Tyler has bested him this year.  Tyler was last place in points scored, yet he managed to get into the playoffs.  He enjoyed pointing out that he was supposed to finish last according to this post from earlier in the year and yet made the playoffs, and did so in a way that would make Dan Patrick and Ron Burgundy proud.

Anyway, all that matters is the playoffs now.  I just checked and the consolation thing passed, so the consolation bracket winner gets to pick his draft spot, and then number 2 picks and so on down the line.  Every consolation game matters, so that means instead of just basing it off your schedule after you are eliminated from the consolation bracket, I will base the final standings for the consolation bracket teams on the 9th place game and the 11th place game.  I do like Ren's idea about setting a deadline, but we can work that out a little later.

For those in the playoffs, I will do it the same as I always have.  If for example Chad and Jordan lose in the first round, I will base their picks on regular season, not the consolation bracket or seeding.  So even though Jordan got the 3 seed, he had a worse record, and he would get the lower pick.  If two teams end with the same regular season record, the lower point total will be awarded with the lower pick.  The 6th place team will get the highest (meaning highest to the top of the draft) pick left.  So if for some strange reason the consolation bracket people take picks 7-12, and Jordan and Chad both lose in the first round of the playoffs, Jordan would get the first pick next year and Chad would get number 2.  I feel like this makes enough sense, but if not, text/call me and I can explain it over the phone.

Anyway, time for my guesses next week.  I am picking Chad and Jordan to win.  No in depth analysis here -- just what my gut says.  Chad has eliminated me from the playoffs 2 years in a row, and my guy tells me he will get a shot at number 3.  Also on that note, I have eliminated Jordan 3 years in a row, so maybe I will get the chance to beat Chad and vanquish those demons, and then Jordan will get the chance to beat me.  Who knows.

Here are some interesting playoff story lines:
I will have made 5 straight semi-finals appearances and Ren will have made 3 this year, and Chad is going for 3 if he beats Trevor..  Ren has never been in the championship game, and I haven't since 2011.
Chad is looking to be the first person to make 3 straight finals appearances, while him and Tyler hope to be the first to make 3 finals period (Modern Era/Post Mission).
Tyler is looking to be the first back-to-back champion.
Tyler, Jordan, and me are hoping to be the first two time champions.
Every game, or possible game is a rematch unless Jordan and I make the finals -- we didn't play each other this year.

Ok, well that's it.  I'm going to bed now and I'm going to enjoy the week off in this league to focus on the league where I barely made the playoffs.  Good regular season gentlemen.

Week 12: The Playoff Positions

So the last thing to worry about is Kyle vs. Konner for this week because everything else is decided.  I locked up the 1st seed, Ren locked up the 2nd seed, Trevor and Chad will finish 4th and 5th (if Chad wins next week and Trevor loses, they will tie on record, and chad will win on points, but it doesn't really matter in the long run), and the winner of Tyler and Jordan next week will get the 3rd seed.  If Kyle beats Jordan tonight, it gives Konner a bigger shot of getting into the playoffs.

Jordan and Tyler will face off at 6-6.  If one of them would have made a trade with my for my running backs, they likely would have won this week.  Sorry, back to the point of this blog.  Konner would only be 1 game behind at 5-7.  If he won next week over Kyle, he would have the same record as the loser of Tyler and Jordan and would get in on a tie breaker of points.  Considering Jordan is up by about 90 in total points, he would want Tyler to be the loser.  Seeing as how he is cheering for Jordan to win next week, it doesn't really matter if Jordan wins this week.

Rob was eliminated this week with the loss.  So the only thing of real interest next week is the battle for 6th between Konner and Tyler.  Again, Tyler could have locked up the playoffs this week by winning, which could have happened by trading with me.  But he might make it anyway.  See you all in week 13.  But we know Chad and Trevor are playing each other in week 14, and I play the winner of them in week 15.  Jordan will play Konner or Tyler in week 14, and the winner of that game will play ren in week 15.

Week 11: Who is in, and who is out of the playoffs.

I won’t get into much here because I have a decent amount of homework to do, so I’ll cut to the chase.  Most of the teams in the playoffs have been decided this week. I am assuming that Tyler’s tight end gets him the point necessary to win.  If Tyler somehow loses, I’m not sure if anyone is mathematically eliminated, but I’d have to double check.  Not really worth it since I assume he wins.  Anyway, about the playoffs. Skyler, Ren, Chad and Trevor are in.  Geoff, Brady, Matt and Kyle are out.  The winner of Jordan and Tyler in week 13 is in. 

That leaves Konner, Rob and the loser of Jordan/Tyler for the last spot.  If Jordan or Tyler win next week, they are in.  Basically for Rob or Konner to get in, they need the future loser of Jordan/Tyler to lose out, they would need to win out themselves, and then they would need to get in on points tie breaker.  Currently Tyler has the lower point total of the two, so they should probably hope for Tyler to lose out, and since Konner and Tyler play each other next week, that will be the big game.  That’s it for now.  Maybe after I’m done with homework tonight I’ll write more.

Week 10: Recap

Another week, another column (in my head it went with a Jay-Z line of “another day, another dollar”…just go with it), and another chance to talk about the crazy things that happened.  Except, the crazy stuff I wanted to see happen didn’t happen, and I’m a little disappointed.  Had Geoff and Brady won it would have made the wild card race even more fun, and the South division would be a little messier.  Instead they both lost, and the South is still messy – just at the top and not for 2^nd and 3^rd in the division.  Oh well. 

Trevor now has a one game lead over the entire West division, and Chad has a two game lead.  Right now it looks like each division will get 2 teams in the playoffs.  Interestingly enough, if the playoff started today (which they don’t and I sometimes hate when media does this, but I’m doing it anyway) Chad would play Trevor and the winner would play me, and Jordan and Tyler would play each other and the winner would play Ren.  So Jordan will jump from the 6^th seed to the 3^rd seed, and Tyler goes from 6 to 3, but they would still play each other.  I doubt everything stays the same the next three weeks, but if that somehow does, they would be fighting for the division championship, but the better seed wouldn’t do them any good.  Maybe the lowest of the division winners shouldn’t be given the 3 seed automatically.  Just a thought.

Next week division games begin again, so we should see division races tighten up.  Chad and Trevor each have a magic number of 1 to clinch their division.  The South is still a mess, with the top two teams being 5-4, and then Konner being one game behind, while Kyle is two games behind.  Kyle could win out and finish no worse than second in his division.  If he won out, and Konner beat both Tyler and Jordan, Kyle could win the division, though that’s not likely.  I suppose Tyler and Jordan could tie in their game, but that’s very unlikely, so basically the future winner of that game has an additional game lead over Konner and Kyle.  We just won’t know who that is until the last week of the season.  Ren and I cannot finish behind Kyle, Konner, Jordan, Tyler, Matt, Rob, Geoff, or Brady.  So we have gotten into the playoffs.  We could still lose the division titles, so we aren’t guaranteed a bye, but we are in the playoffs.  Chad can’t finish behind Geoff, Brady, Matt or Kyle – so while not guaranteed a spot if he were to lose out, he is in pretty good shape.  Trevor can’t finish behind Brady or Kyle, but that appears to be it.

Now that we know who is for sure in, let’s take a look at who is for sure out.  Matt and Brady can’t finish ahead of Me, Ren, Chad, and Trevor.  So even they aren’t eliminated from what I can tell.  To get in they would both need to win out, have Geoff and Rob lose out, and then either Tyler or Jordan to lose out (for this example, we will say Tyler since he has less points).  So if Jordan won out, and Tyler lost out, they would need Kyle to beat Konner.  Then Jordan would finish 8-5, Tyler would finish 5-8, Konner would finish 5-8, and Kyle would finish 5-8, and then Brady and Matt would finish 5-8, Rob would finish 4-9 and Geoff would finish 3-10.  And then only one of those 5-8 teams would make it.  If there is a Santa, I have a new Christmas wish – please make this happen!  So realistically they won’t make the playoffs, but it could happen.  However, they both won’t make the playoffs even if this did happen, so one of them is for sure eliminated, we just don’t know who yet.  That last week would be stressful.  All the right teams have to lose, and then everyone would worry about scoring the most points to win the tiebreaker.  And that’s if I did my math right just now.

So next week I think we can start eliminating people from the playoffs, but I hope not.  I don’t have much more to say about this week, other than I finally beat Konner in this league.  I am in two leagues with him, and I have beaten him in the other league before, but never this one.  It feels good.  But I’m sure he’s ok with it because they had a great comeback against Stansbury last week.  5 straight touchdowns in the last quarter and the last 5 seconds of the 3^rd quarter to get the com from behind victory.  They play pine view this week at Rice Eccles.  So good luck to Dixie next week, and good luck to my miracle 5-8 scenario.  Also, I went 4-2 last week with my bye week advantages.  I was part of the 2 that I got wrong, so I'm ok with that, and the other was the Brady vs. Rob toss up.

Weekly Record: 3-1

Year to Date: 29-11

Week 10: More Bye Weeks and Magic Numbers

I went back to my last blog post to see how my predictions worked out, and I noticed just how many mistakes I made – both grammatically and fantasy wise.  I won’t correct my grammar errors on here, but I will acknowledge any fantasy prediction mistakes I had.  Here we go in the order that I made guesses last week.  Before I get to that, I will say that it appears my bye week advantages will win each game, so I did do something right.  Anyway, moving on.

Rob and me – I wasn’t sure if I had the big advantage over Rob (I didn’t) but my team came to play. It’s highly unlikely he makes a comeback tonight, but I suppose it could happen.

Matt and Geoff – I was wrong thinking that Matt would be in last no matter what.  It was definitely the battle for last place.  Geoff won, and should jump from 11^th overall to 8^th overall.  Very nice jump for him.  Anyway, Geoff overcame Tate being on bye and Bernard on injury.  Geoff scares me – I think he is getting hot and has a real shot at the playoffs.

Konner and Trevor – Rough week for Konner in fantasy football, not in high school football.  Trevor got the win and now has the inside track to the 5^th seed.

Ren and Jordan – I might have been a little wrong about blowout, and I was also wrong about Demaryius Thomas and my paid vacation comment.  I thought it was so creative, and I wanted to use it.  I was also wrong about Peyton going bonkers, though he still played well.  As long as Fleener doesn’t go bonkers, Ren will win.

Brady and Tyler – I had the right call on bye week advantage, wrong call on who was going to win.  Everyone lost that Brady needed to lose, but he couldn’t get the win.  Some of that is Rivers getting -2 points, and some is on starting the wrong guys. Looking at his team though, I can’t say I fault him for his roster choices.

Kyle and Chad – Kyle’s depth really hurt him this week.  Not sure what else to say about it.  He should bounce back next week and have a better point total.  For Chad it will be interesting to see how Sanu plays with Green back, but so far, so good.

Magic Numbers – So after this week, if everything holds like I think it will, here are some magic number updates.  Chad’s magic number for the division championship is now 2.  So it would be super nice if I won and he lost next week.  Chad has a good shot at winning, and I think I lose to Konner, so that number should stay the same for another week.  Rob and Matt each lost, and Ren won, so they can no longer win the division.  Trevor’s number is 2 because Ren won as well.

Tyler won this week, and now has the division lead by one game.  It’s still really close, but Kyle’s magic number should be 3, but I’m not 100% if the head to head matchup changes anything.  I think it only speeds up Kyle’s ability to come back or to be eliminated from winning the division.  Jordan and Konner have a magic number of 4.  Not that Konner, Tyler and Jordan can all win out, but if they could, Tyler wouldn’t clinch until the last week.  Considering it’s all division games starting in week 11, a lot of things can change, and can change quickly. 

Wild Card – Chad has the 4^th seed, and leads Trevor by 1 game, who has the 5^th seed, and then 6^th seed is still crammed.  Jordan currently leads the 6 seed and is currently 4-5.  He is beating Konner on points.  Kyle, Rob and Geoff are 1 game behind, and Brady and Matt are 2 games behind the 6 seed.  I think everyone can mathematically still get the 4 seed, but I haven’t looked into head to head schedules enough to say how likely that is.

Bye Week Advantages: Week 10 – I will try and be quicker here than last week. I will name the person who I think has the advantage from bye weeks, and I will note if I think the other person still has the game advantage.

Skyler & Konner – Konner (I will be missing some important Patriots, namely my RB and TE)

Jordan & Geoff – Jordan (Jordan should be down a TE, Geoff will be down his QB, a WR, and a RB or two)

Matt & Chad – Chad (Chad will only be missing Malcom Floyd, and his kicker, Matt will miss a TE, his DST and two WR’s)

Rob & Brady – Brady (This is close, Brady is missing some important players, but Rob is missing a lot of players, so he would need to do more work this week to put in a full roster)

Ren & Tyler – Ren (Ren is missing Foster, though he is hurt, and a bunch of bench rotation players, maybe the occasional flex, Tyler will miss his MVP in Luck, and also Edelman.  His QB depth isn’t bad, but losing your best player is never good)

Trevor & Kyle – Trevor (Trevor is only going to miss his DST, Kyle will miss a TE, WR, K, and DST)

Next Week Scenarios – Geoff and Jordan is a big one.  Geoff is currently up by about 10 points, but back one win.  Next week would jump Geoff up over Jordan, and possibly over Konner, but I do think Konner will beat me, and will stay ahead of Geoff.  Another big one is Brady and Rob.  If Brady wins he would jump Rob, and possibly Kyle (who plays Trevor).  Those are the two big games that could change the standings and the wild card race.  That’s it for me.  Good luck to everyone but Konner next week.

Weekly Record: 3-1

Year to Date: 26-10

Week 9: Bye Week Previews and Some Magic Number

I decided that I would write a second post this week simply because I am bored in my class.  First I will look at bye weeks and then I’ll go into some magic numbers for playoff spots and division winners.  This week begins bye week hell.  Before this week, only 2 teams were ever on a bye.  This week, 6 teams are on a bye.  That will happen next week as well.  Week 11 only 4 teams will be a on a bye, week 12 only 2 teams will be on a bye, and then there will be no more byes.  So now we see how well each owner can manage, and how well waiver pickups have gone.

Starting with mine and Rob’s game, we will both be missing our QB’s.  We will also be missing top WR’s, though I haven’t played Megatron once since acquiring him.  Rob’s recent waiver acquisition Bryce Brown is also out, as is his defense.  Both of those two are easily replaceable because he hasn’t been depending on them all year.  I believe the bye hurts Rob more than me because Stafford has played better than Ryan the last couple of weeks, and because I’ve been playing without Megatron, so his being out isn’t any different for me.

Next up according to the order of the game center layout are Matt and Geoff.  I thought it was the battle for last, but even if Matt wins, Geoff likely stays ahead based on points.  Anyway, on to the bye weeks.  Matt gets Kaepernick back, but loses Lacy, Marshall, as well as Wright, Adams and Sankey.  Those last three aren’t big other than they could be used as bye week subs.  It will be interesting to see how he manages his team this week.  Geoff will be missing Cutler (who he hasn’t needed as of late anyway) and Golden Tate who has been solid with Megatron’s absence.  There is a small chance of Gio missing due to injury, but that’s not the point of this writing, so bye week advantage Geoff.  Geoff is deep enough to cover Tate being out and could cover Gio being hurt.

The strive for 5 – Konner vs. Trevor.  This is a great time to face Konner.  High school football playoffs are starting soon, and I doubt Konner cares much about fantasy during this stretch, but who knows.  Konner has a real rough bye week scenario.  He loses Forte, Cobb, Bennett, and his kicker (least big deal). Trevor is only down Jordy and his kicker.  Advantage Trevor.

Ren and Jordan have another game, and even before the bye information I was picking Ren to win, but now I’m thinking blowout.  Jordan will be missing Rodgers, White and Steven Jackson, but he should get Green back from injury.  Jordan will miss one of his two guys that can win a game for your single handedly, and the other one is tied to Ren’s QB.  Ren will be missing Julio Jones who has barely cracked 30 points with his last 3 games combined – so not the biggest loss with the way he has been playing.  The other problem for Jordan is that this is Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady week, and I expect Manning to go bonkers.  But I think Demaryius will get a paid vacation to Revis Island and not do much to help the Broncos or Jordan, so that won’t even help him.  Anyway, advantage Ren.

Brady and Tyler have the smallest amount of bye week impact, as Tyler has no one on bye, and Brady only has two guys, Walker, and Fred Jackson, who has been injured anyway.  I think this is the one game where the guy with the bye week advantage doesn’t win. Bye advantage Tyler, but win for Brady.

Kyle and Chad round out the week, with Chad looking like the bye week winner, he is missing Jacquizz Rodgers, who hasn’t been starting for Chad that I’ve noticed.  He will be missing Watkins though, who has been huge as of late.  Speaking of which, Chad didn’t listen to me when I tried to swindle Watkins away.  I’m still mad about that.  Kyle on the other will be missing about half of his running backs.  He currently can start a recently injured Rashad Jennings, who likely won’t play in real life.  Knile Davis is a backup to Charles, which isn’t promising, and Benny Cunningham is in an RBBC situation at best, though he did have three straight weeks at double digits before last week.  Chad probably loses the single best player this matchup, but Kyle has some serious depth issues.  Advantage Chad

So now that the bye weeks have been looked at, time for some magic numbers.  I think I first heard about the magic number from MLB, though it could have been NBA.  Basically the magic number comes from number of the top team’s wins and bottom team’s losses.  For example, Geoff and Brady’s magic number last week was 1, and as soon as I won or they lost, they couldn’t win the division.  So the magic number for me to clinch the division/for Chat to not win the division is 3.  I have a 3 game lead with 5 games left.  If I win 3 more games, I win the division, or if Chad loses 3 I win the division, or a combination of 2 wins for me, 1 loss for chad or 2 losses for Chad or 1 win for me.  So now that we have that established, I will go ahead and apply this to the non-leaders of the South division in comparison to the division leader, and the West is way too tight for me to attempt.  I will attempt todo wild card numbers (6 seed) as well.

South Magic Numbers: Bhers magic number is 1.  As soon as he loses, or Ren wins, he can no longer win the division. Rob’s magic number is 2.  So both Rob and Matt could be shut out after this week from the division championship.  Trevor’s magic number is 3.

Wildcard Numbers:  Currently Chad is number 4, even though he is ahead of the whole West Division.  Someone from the West has to make the playoffs.  However, because they are all tied, I will put them all into the wildcard consideration.  With 5 weeks to go, no one is eliminated from the playoff hunt.  And after sitting here thinking about it, this is way too much to try and figure out, and it’s way too close.  Considering the 5 and 6 seeds are at 4-4 and the 10, 11, and 12 spots are only 2 games behind, it’s a little hard to figure it out.  Maybe in the next couple of weeks I’ll be able to do it.  Anyway, that’s it for this week.

Weekly Record: 3-1 (another lucky week, barely beating Matt and getting some luck against Tommy)

Year to Date: 23-9