Week 2 and the Terrible, Horrible, No Wait, Very Good Game

The games this week were significantly closer than last week, which made for some tense final moments for a couple of us. (Hyperlinked in case someone not in the league is reading and wants to see the league page.  It's unlikely, but you never know)

Skyler started tonight down 36.54, but with some miracle production (and a last minute scare), the Bears DST and Tyler Lockett combined for 38 points, leading to a win over Chad. None of it would have happened had Cam Newton started in place of Alex Smith, but that's what you get for putting your trust in a Ute.

The Matt vs Ren game was a little more intense because Ren had two people playing tonight, while Matt had one.  In the end, Matt was able to hang on to his lead with 9.8 points from Jordan Howard.  Ren almost got the comeback off of the 7 point leg of Janikowski and the 18.3 points from Allen Robinson, but it just wasn't meant to be.  Matt got the win by 2.1.  Matt is probably glad for the 3 team trade this week, as it cleared the path for Mahomes and his monster game to be in his starting lineup.  Maybe he would have started Mahomes anyway, but who knows.

The Kyle and Jordan matchup ended last night, but it was a game decided by less than 4 points.  After all the crap Kyle took after the 3 team trade last week, the trade probably got him the victory.  Had he started Kareem Hunt instead of James Conner, he would have dropped 4 points, and then had he started Gronk instead of Lewis, he would have dropped 3 more points.  Of course had he not had Drew Brees, he would have had to choose between Goff, and Ryan.  If he would have picked Goff, he would have lost, and if he would have picked Ryan, he would have won even with Gronk and Hunt.  At the end of the day, a win is a win, and that's all Kyle cares about.

Trevor and Rob finished with a 7 point difference, but that also ended last night when Saquon only got Trevor 24.8 points.  What a scrub.  Feel free to trade him to me for letting you down Trevor.

The other games weren't close enough to really get in depth, but it is worth mentioning is TJ got the high score of the week.  I didn't want to mention it because that was his goal, and his game was never really in doubt, but at the same time, it would just be petty of me not to at least give him the shout out since I was going crazy over my high score last week.  So well done TJ.  It was also high enough that he will be in first place overall when the standings are updated.

And sorry about your luck Tyler.  He was the number 5 scorer of the week but ran into the number 1 team this week (TJ).  The good luck team of the week was Kyle, who was the 3rd lowest score of the week, but he got to play Jordan, who was the 2nd lowest scorer of the week.

Looking forward to next week, Skyler and Brady are the only 2-0 teams that will play each other, so that should be an interesting result.  Brady will also have a Josh Gordon who is playing with Tom Brady.  I swear I'm not angry about this.  I suppose it makes up for him not having Joe Mixon.  Skyler will have at least one player on Monday night, while Brady will have several Patriots on Sunday night.

*Quick Side Note: I swear I don't like talking in 3rd person, and I notice how much I switch between saying I/me and Skyler.  I try to be consistent about using Skyler when I talk about my team instead of saying "my team", and then I refer to myself as me/I when I am writing about my feelings or perspective.  Anyway, back to the rest of next weeks preview*

Chad battles Geoff in a battle of winless teams.  0-2 is Chad's worst start since 2013, so let's see if he can make history and start 0-3.  I will be cheering for you, Geoff.  Geoff will likely have two starters playing Sunday night, while all of Chad's team will be done after the early Sunday games (barring waiver players that become starters)

Undefeated Matt takes on defeated Trevor.  It's not like starting 3-0 guarantees you a playoff spot, and starting 0-3 doesn't mean you will miss the playoffs, but I'm sure they will both be motivated for a win this week.  I don't think I'll have much time this week if today is any indication, but I will try and look up the history for teams starting with those records and if they make the playoffs.  Matt has two players playing Sunday night, and Trevor should have one on Monday night.

Ren and Rob will play each other while each sports a 1-1 record.  Whoever wins will at least keep pace with Matt for the division lead. I have no dog in this fight or anything snarky to say, or any fun fact to share.  I'm just rambling because I feel bad that they had such a short section.  Rob has a Sunday night player on his bench, while Ren has a Monday night player on his bench.  It's too early to tell if they will be started this week, but it could happen.

Top Team TJ takes on Kyle's revamped squad.  Given how Kyle has finished the last two weeks, I would imagine TJ has a good chance at staying undefeated, but stranger things have happened.  "Le'Veon Watch" (similar to Panda Watch that happened at the San Diego Zoo in the mid-70's) will be less fun since Kyle has both Bell and Conner, but it was good drama while it lasted.  Here's to hoping Bell comes back this week and makes me feel a lot better about my trade.  Kyle will have a starting running back going on Monday night, while TJ could start four players from Sunday night's game.  Not sure if he will, but it could make his Sunday night more entertaining.

Last and almost, but not quite, least is Jordan (actually 4th least if my math is right), who is 0-2, vs Tyler, who is 1-1.  Jordan should have two guys playing on Monday Night Football, so maybe he will get a Monday Night Miracle for his first win of the season.  Tyler doesn't appear to have any primetime players this week -- Thursday Night Football does not count as primetime in my book.

Well that's it for this week, good luck to everyone except Brady next week.  Fun fact -- Brady and Matt never play each other in the regular season, meaning they could both go undefeated and meet up in the championship having gone 14-0 (13-0 in the regular season and 1-0 in the playoffs).  I obviously don't want to see it happen, but it would be interesting if it did happen

Week 1 and All is Well

Week one is in the books and I am back to writing a weekly summary – which means I won and I don’t hate fantasy football at the moment.

None of the games were within 20 points, but two of the games came down to the final night.  TJ was able to beat Jordan on the strength of his Monday night players (he historically has issues with Monday nights), and Matt ended up beating Rob.  The game would have been a little closer had Rob not cut his kicker, but whatever floats his boat.

High scorer of the week: Skyler – enjoyed some James Conner, Drew Brees and Mike Evans luck.

Low scorer of the week: Kyle – hates Le’Veon Bell, Marquise Goodwin, and Kareem Hunt.

Unlucky team of the week: Jordan – 5^th highest scorer of the week, but played against the 2^nd highest scorer of the week.

Lucky team of the week: Matt – 128 points isn’t really lucky, but 6 teams scored higher than he did, so he got a little lucky he didn’t play one of them.  Also, look for him to trade one of his QB’s – he currently owns 2 of the top 5 QB’s.  Then again, 2 of the top 6 QB’s are on waivers, so maybe wait another week to trade him.  Just don’t let him hustle you if you do decide to trade with him!

Looking forward to next week, there are two games against undefeated teams, and two games against defeated teams.  I don’t want to look into the current projections to predict the games because A) they haven’t updated their projections recently, B) their projections are generally terrible, and C) I am personally bitter against them because they have James Conner under 2 points, which isn’t happening.  All of that being said Rob and Trevor are projected to be within 2 points and TJ and Tyler are projected to be within 4.  I doubt any of that plays out, but it would make for some exciting games.

Looking at Monday night, the next game is the Seahawks and the Bears.  Match-ups that will likely be significantly effected by that game include Ren (Allen Robinson) vs. Matt (Jordan Howard), and maybe TJ (If he starts Russel Wilson, and Trey Burton) vs Tyler.  We will see if some streamer/flex plays make an appearance (Cohen, Carson, Penny, or Lockett), but I doubt it given the lack of bye weeks.

I have a nice long commute these days, so I might be writing more – depends how much work I need to do during the ride, so there may be a more in depth matchup preview later in the week.  Good luck to everyone (except Chad) this week.

2018 Draft Review

Today we had our draft, which is always the best day of the year.  We had it rather early because of a wedding, and we were able to get 10 of us in town for the draft, which we haven't done in years.  Special shout out to Tommy Leavitt for filling in for Chad for the first half of the draft, so really I guess we had 11 people at the draft.

Here is the analysis of our draft based on football guys.  I broke it out by tiers so you could read it a little easier.  The quick analysis is that Chad should run away with his division title, that TJ and Kyle will battle it out all season long for their division title, and that Ren is the favorite to win his division.


TJ - 90% chance (and that's with the site not having Taysom Hill in the system)
Chad - 90% chance
Ren - 90% chance
Kyle - 85% chance

Matt - 75% chance
Jordan -75% chance
Tyler - 75% chance
Rob - 70% chance
Geoff - 70% chance

Skyler - 60% chance
Trevor - 60% chance
Brady - 55% chance (and that's with the site not having Guice in the system)


Also, here is a breakdown of our power rankings from fantasypros.  Geoff should favor this second rating more as he moved from tied for 8th all the way up to 4th.  Tyler should probably hate it the most as he goes from tied to 5th to 11th.

Well that's it for now.  I'm not sure what I will be able to write about until the regular season starts, but if the rankings are any implication, I might not write as much because I hate writing when I suck at fantasy football.

Fantasy Football is Stupid and so is Hopkins

Here is a table with all of the scenarios for playoffs.  W2 refers to the second place west team.  It could be Tyler or TJ, but the same scenarios apply to both.

Team	Result	Scenario
Trevor	Out	All
Jordan	Out	All
Kyle	Out	All
Geoff	Out	All
Tyler	Win Division	A Tyler win and a TJ loss
	Wild Card	A Tyler win and a TJ win
	Wild Card	A Tyler loss and a Matt loss and a Skyler loss.
	Out	A Tyler loss and a Matt or Skyler win.
TJ	Win Division	A TJ win
	Win Division	A Tyler Loss
	Wildcard	A TJ loss, a Tyler win, and a Skyler and Matt loss.
	Out	A TJ loss, a Tyler win, and a Skyler or Matt win.
Rob	Bye Week	Win
	Wildcard	All
Ren	Bye Week	Win
	Wildcard	All
Brady	Bye Week	Win
	Wildcard	All
Chad	Bye Week	A Chad win and a Brady loss and Chad outscores Brady.
	Wildcard	All
Matt	Wildcard	A Matt win and a W2 loss
	Out	A W2 win
	Out	A Matt loss
Skyler	Wildcard	A Skyler win, and a W2 loss and a Matt loss
	Out	A Matt or W2
	Out	A Skyler loss

Another week, another 3 game losing streak.

I thought my title was clever, and then I realized I wasn't even the coldest team in the league.  Trevor is tied with me said 3 game losing streak, and then there is Jordan who is on a 9 game losing streak.  He started 2-0, probably felt on top of the world, and then crashed hardcore.  This week, Jordan hit his final bump and was eliminated with his loss, as was Kyle.  They join Trevor in the group of fallen tributes (if you didn't watch hunger games, shame on you).  Skyler

Switching to the leaders, Chad v Brady looked promising, after Chad's 180 point game.  Brady decided to get in on the 180 point action this week, but Chad didn't break triple digits.  Even after that huge win, Chad still has a 50 point lead on Brady if it comes down to tie-breakers.  Fortunately for Brady, he has some cupcake games coming up, and he should hopefully maintain his 1 game lead on Chad. Skyler

In news from the South (which currently has the most exciting races in my opinion), Rob got a big win and basically knocked Matt out of the race for division champion.  Rob is currently up 2 games on Matt with 2 games to go and Rob has a 100 point lead over Matt as well.  If Rob wins next week, that will eliminate TJ from getting a first-round bye, even though it wouldn't give Rob the division championship, because Ren could still catch him. Skyler

In the West division, TJ has a one-game lead over Tyler as well as 110 points.  For Tyler to win the division, he will need to win out while TJ loses out.  There is a small possibility that they could end with the same record, and Tyler somehow catches up on the 110 points over two weeks, but we all know it's not going to happen. Skyler

With Skyler and Matt losing, and Geoff and Tyler winning, the battle for 6th place will be intense with two weeks remaining.  Skyler and Geoff have the toughest remaining games (both against the top 2 teams in the league, so they should be nervous.  Matt is 50/50 as he plays Ren and then Trevor.  Tyler is also at 50/50 as he plays Jordan and TJ. Skyler

The game of the week is Matt against Ren.  If Ren wins, he will have a 2 game lead over Matt, and Matt will have no chance of sneaking up to get the 5 seed.  Ren winning will also keep the pressure on Rob for the division championship.  If Matt wins, he will maintain his lead on the 6th seed and could overtake Ren for the 5th seed next week, and he will also make the path for Rob winning the division much easier. Skyler

For the sake of intensity (and my own needs), Ren beating Matt would make for an intense week 13 since there could still be 4 teams fighting for one spot. Skyler

I know my thoughts have been all over the place, so here is a recap by person, going in the order of ease for me to write about. Skyler

Kyle, Jordan, and Trevor are done, but can still affect the playoffs by winning or losing. Skyler
Skyler
Brady: Leads for the #1 seed, but Chad is still right there.  This race won't likely be wrapped up until the last week.  If Brady wins this week while Chad loses (I would 100% approve of this), it would be finished, but Chad has an easy game (Skyler). Skyler

Chad: See above. Skyler

Rob: A win this week and a Ren loss would lock up the division win and the bye week.  A Rob loss and a Ren win would put Ren atop the division on tie-breaker, and then they would play each other in week 13 with the division on the line (and it would give TJ a chance to steal a first-round bye).  I really want to see that happen now that I know it can happen,  It can only happen with a Rob loss and a Ren win. Do your part Trevor and Ren. Skyler

Ren: See above.  Even with a loss, he would still be in control of the 5 seed going into the last week, but it would make him vulnerable to dropping to 6th or even missing the playoffs, though not likely. Skyler
Matt:  (See the previous two) Lose and he will have no shot at the 5th seed, plus he will give hope to Skyler, Geoff and Tyler to sneak in. Skyler

Geoff and Tyler:  If they lose while Matt wins, they will be eliminated from the playoffs. If they win while Matt loses, Tyler would jump up ahead of Matt and into the 6th seed (unless Skyler won, though he could potentially win his division), and Geoff would be tied with both of them on record, but behind on points. Skyler

Skyler: If he loses and Matt wins, Matt will have a 1 game lead and currently has a 50 point lead in the tie-breaker.  It wouldn't 100% eliminate Skyler, but it would be almost impossible for him to come back from the loss. If he wins and Matt loses, it will move him up to the 6th seed. Skyler

TJ: Win the week, win the division, have a shot at a bye week if Rob loses. Lose this week (to Tyler), wait and see what happens in week 13, lose all chance at a bye week.

So for maximum week 13 fun we want Skyler and Matt to lose (stay at 6 wins) and Geoff and Tyler to win (get up to 6 wins), while Ren beats Rob.  That would mean no one had won their division yet, and that 4 teams would be battling for 6th place.

How to Make the Playoffs: A Step by Step Guide to Qualifying for the Tournament

I have more free time today, so I decided to sit down and look at how each team can qualify for the playoffs.  Here is a screenshot of the current standings.

So starting at the bottom:

Trevor is officially out. Sorry, compadre.

Jordan and Kyle have the same path to the playoffs.  Win every division game with TJ losing every division game, and Tyler winning only one division game (over TJ) while the other member of the Jordan/Kyle group beats both TJ and Tyler, but loses the head to head Jordan/Kyle matchup.  And then Jordan/Kyle would have to be able to beat out TJ and Tyler on the points tiebreaker. I give this a <1% chance of happening.  Another fun fact, if Jordan loses this weekend, he eliminates himself and Kyle at the same time.

Next on the list is Geof.  Geoff cannot catch Chad or Brady, so if they win, it doesn't affect him making playoffs.  Geoff needs people he can catch to lose.  So he needs to win out (gets him to 7 wins), and he needs Skyler to lose out (stays at 6).  He should also cheer for TJ and Rob to win out (8 and 10 wins respectively), with Tyler only winning 1 more game maximum (5 wins).  He should also cheer for Trevor to beat both Matt and Ren so they don't get additional wins.  Given the current scores, he should cheer for Ren over Matt because Matt has the lower point total, but if Matt or Ren lose out, and Geoff wins out, he would jump ahead of one of those people.  Also, it is still mathematically possible for him to make the playoffs at 6 wins, but it would be darn near impossible.  I also give Geoff <1% chance of making the playoffs.

It gets murky in the middle, so I am jumping to the top.  The winner of Chad v Brady has the inside track to a bye week.  It is possible that the loser wins the next two after, and the winner loses the next two, but it's not likely given their competition. Chad has a big lead on points, so if they end up tied, he will get the tiebreaker.  In theory, one of them could lose out and miss the playoffs, but we know that's not going to happen.  The things that need to happen for one of them to miss the playoffs is longer than the list for Geoff to make the playoffs. >99% chance they both make the playoffs, and >99% chance that one of them gets a first-round bye.

In order for Tyler to win the division, he needs to win all of his games, and given the 90 point lead TJ has on him, he should hope for TJ to lose at least 2 games.  If Tyler wants to get to the playoffs as a wild-card, he will still likely need to win out.  If Tyler only gets to 6 wins he would need TJ to lose out, Ren or Matt to lose out (Matt has fewer points, so he should cheer against Matt), and Skyler to lose out.  And then he would have to make it on tie-breakers -- and he is already ahead of Matt and Skyler on points, so that would work out for him.  Overall though, Tyler's best case to make the playoffs is by winning the division.

TJ can guarantee a division title by winning out.  If he goes 2-1 and Tyler goes 3-0, he will still likely win the division based on points.  TJ can also win the division by only winning 1 of his last 3 games, as long as that win is against Tyler (they play next week, and not this week), and that Tyler doesn't catch him on the tie-breaker.  All of those scenarios

The South division can be won by any of the non-Trevor teams winning out.  Matt would need a little help if he wins 3 games and Rob wins 2 since Rob is ahead on tie-breakers, but even then Matt would make the playoffs.

The wild card spots are a little tricker for The non-South winners and Skyler are a little trickier.  For ease of writing, I will assume Rob wins the division since he currently has the lead.  So that leaves Matt and Ren fighting with Skyler for the last 2 playoff spots (though Rob could be swapped out for Matt or Ren, and Tyler could get there, but it would be a big stretch).  Another stretch is that an 8 win team could miss the playoffs.  If Matt and Ren go 2-1, and Rob and Trevor go 1-2, Matt Ren and Rob would all end up with 8 wins.  If Skyler also goes 2-1, that would give him 8 wins.  It's highly unlikely all of that happens, but you never know.

In summary, if you want to guarantee a spot in the playoffs, get to 9 wins.  If you want a really good shot, get to 8.  If you want a chance to make the playoffs, get to 7, but you will be needing help.  Getting in with 6 wins will require a miracle.  Getting there with 5 means you are Kyle or Jordan and that miracles are real.

Week 10 Interesting Groups

This week is the last week before we get back to division games, which means it's the last week where you can get a win and everyone else in your division can get a loss.  So for those looking to catch up or pull away, this is a big week.

Here is a look at the importance of the upcoming games.

Chad vs Matt and Brady vs Rob:
I grouped these together because it's the top team in the north vs the top team in the south, and the second-best team in the north vs the second-best team in the south.  While it is likely that the winners of the North and South will get the bye weeks, this week will basically solidify whether the North will get the 1 seed, or if the South has a chance to steal it.  If both North teams win, it will give Brady a 3 game lead over the South, and Chad a 2 game lead (with 3 games left to go).  If both of the South teams win, it would mean that Matt, Rob, and Chad would all be tied, and Brady would be only 1 game ahead.

Skyler vs TJ and Tyler vs Ren:
Here we have the top two teams in the west going against the two guys who are currently battling it out for the wild-card spot.  A Ren win with a Skyler loss would put Ren ahead on tie-breakers for the last spot in the playoffs.  A Skyler win and a Ren loss would give Skyler a two-game lead.  If they both win or both lose, it doesn't change anything between them, but if they both lose, it would give the west a chance to get one of the wild-card spots.

A Tyler win and a TJ loss will put Tyler up by one game (which he needs to happen as he is behind points).  A TJ win and a Tyler loss will give TJ a one-game lead in addition to his points tie-breaker.  If they both win, nothing will change between them, but it would keep Jordan and Kyle at bay, and it would mean they would be tied with Ren's record and only a game behind Skyler -- which would mean one game back of the last wildcard spot.  So while they are desperately cheering for the other to lose, they can still benefit if they both win.

So this week Skyler and Tyler are cheering for each other, and Ren and TJ are cheering for each other.

Trevor vs Kyle and Jordan vs Geoff:
The Loser Leaves Town group.  I won't say that the losers will definitively be eliminated from the playoffs because it would depend on a lot of the other games, but it is very likely that the losers will not be able to make the playoffs.  It will still be a tall task for the winners to make the playoffs, but it would still be possible.

After this week, we will be back in division play.  Just as a reminder while you are thinking about how you can still make the playoffs, here are the possible win/loss combinations of a division during the 3 division games.  3-0, 2-1, 1-2, and 0-3 or 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, and 1-2 or 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2.  So if you are planning on winning out your division games, just remember to give some other teams in your division a few wins.  Sadly, you can't go 3-0 while the rest of your division goes 0-3.