UHSAA Week 4 RPI

The Bishop Gorman game is still ongoing but based on their score and time remaining, I am comfortable giving them the win.  If they manage to lose the game, Orem's ranking and any of Orem's opponents will get a slight downgrade.

In case you didn't see my tweet earlier yesterday, using strictly RPI as a way to predict games between Utah schools resulted in correctly predicting the winner 74% of the time.  There is only one game that I definitely disagreed with, and that was predicting a 6A team losing to a 5A team while the 5A team had less than a .1 lead in RPI.  I plan on altering the formula if there are any more non-region, cross-classification games. About half of the state was playing region games last week, and I imagine the majority of the other half will start this next week, and it won't be much of an issue going forward.

For the rankings this week, I added some color coding to the table.  Green means bye week, red means won't make the playoffs, and yellow means you have a bye, but so does your first-round opponent.

6A

Ranking	Team	MWP	OWP	OOWP	RPI
1	Corner Canyon	0.4	0.26666667	0.13035828	0.79702494
2	Lone Peak	0.35949244	0.23833334	0.14495592	0.74278169
3	Herriman	0.3	0.3	0.10361111	0.70361111
4	Pleasant Grove	0.38695652	0.205	0.08663847	0.67859499
5	American Fork	0.28695652	0.23858803	0.14730315	0.67284769
6	Skyridge	0.33695193	0.20174593	0.12592593	0.66462378
7	Kearns	0.37391303	0.16731885	0.11478088	0.65601276
8	Bingham	0.26666667	0.22222222	0.12365539	0.61254428
9	Syracuse	0.3	0.16666667	0.11426347	0.58093014
10	Roy	0.3	0.16666667	0.11361111	0.58027778
11	Riverton	0.3	0.12898551	0.11625431	0.54523982
12	Westlake	0.1	0.33833334	0.10188448	0.54021782
13	Jordan	0	0.38214965	0.14333333	0.52548299
14	East	0.17709957	0.2463069	0.09363414	0.5170406
15	Hunter	0.3	0.09565218	0.10722222	0.5028744
16	West	0.3	0.10499999	0.09094203	0.49594202
17	Copper Hills	0.38260869	0	0.10673108	0.48933977
18	Layton	0.1	0.27166667	0.09055556	0.46222222
19	Weber	0.2	0.15	0.09888889	0.44888889
20	Fremont	0.1	0.23833334	0.10364524	0.44197858
21	Taylorsville	0	0.3397826	0.08149759	0.42128018
22	Davis	0.2	0.1	0.11277778	0.41277778
23	Granger	0	0.29565218	0.09865942	0.3943116
24	West Jordan	0.1	0.2	0.0809058	0.3809058
25	Northridge	0.1	0.17666667	0.1025	0.37916667
26	Clearfield	0	0.2	0.0751087	0.2751087
27	Cyprus	0	0.19565218	0.06444444	0.26009662

5A

Ranking	Team	MWP	OWP	OOWP	RPI
1	Springville	0.4	0.27741666	0.06288647	0.74030314
2	Woods Cross	0.43000001	0.17666667	0.10345833	0.71012502
3	Farmington	0.31500001	0.26826197	0.09234722	0.6756092
4	Orem	0.2	0.3	0.16075591	0.66075591
5	Brighton	0.33000001	0.21	0.09444444	0.63444446
6	Olympus	0.31500001	0.19630435	0.08608523	0.59738959
7	Highland	0.40195654	0.1	0.08121661	0.58317315
8	Provo	0.31500001	0.13898806	0.12219402	0.57618209
9	Lehi	0.28866451	0.19565217	0.0820795	0.56639619
10	Salem Hills	0.31500001	0.16853813	0.08069444	0.56423258
11	Timpview	0.1	0.33316415	0.11654046	0.54970461
12	Payson	0.17561438	0.24583334	0.10830357	0.52975128
13	Maple Mountain	0.2	0.19565217	0.13080556	0.52645773
14	Wasatch	0.2	0.24908333	0.07583333	0.52491666
15	Box Elder	0.18695653	0.22963767	0.09643763	0.51303183
16	Bonneville	0.18695653	0.20499999	0.08449318	0.47644971
17	Alta	0.13333333	0.19069818	0.13644913	0.46048065
18	Murray	0.30195654	0.07166667	0.07327337	0.44689658
19	Timpanogos	0	0.32575	0.11870791	0.44445791
20	Bountiful	0.1	0.21	0.12192452	0.43192452
21	Skyline	0.2	0.1	0.1315625	0.4315625
22	Viewmont	0.11500001	0.2	0.102625	0.41762501
23	Mountain Ridge	0	0.29687368	0.11471015	0.41158382
24	Spanish Fork	0.21500001	0.07166667	0.08617615	0.37284282
25	Cottonwood	0	0.23333333	0.06929215	0.30262549
26	Hillcrest	0	0.19413044	0.085	0.27913044

4A

Ranking	Team	MWP	OWP	OOWP	RPI
1	Green Canyon	0.42999997	0.25862575	0.07665586	0.76528158
2	Park City	0.44724997	0.21666667	0.03972222	0.70363886
3	Dixie	0.33224999	0.27166666	0.09077337	0.69469002
4	Mountain View	0.44724997	0.07166667	0.13203321	0.65094985
5	Sky View	0.30392834	0.25521645	0.08649801	0.6456428
6	Tooele	0.20196417	0.24333332	0.10835569	0.55365318
7	Stansbury	0.2	0.21196416	0.13258481	0.54454897
8	Ogden	0.1	0.36408332	0.08026931	0.54435264
9	Logan	0.10196417	0.305	0.09716268	0.50412686
10	Ridgeline	0.23224999	0.13833334	0.09941625	0.46999957
11	Pine View	0.2	0.18741666	0.07540278	0.46281944
12	Uintah	0.13333333	0.19877776	0.1058776	0.4379887
13	Cedar	0.11499998	0.22075	0.09318056	0.42893054
14	Desert Hills	0.1	0.2120569	0.08253922	0.39459612
15	Crimson Cliffs	0.1	0.17901316	0.11509993	0.39411309
16	Bear River	0.1	0.16797102	0.11248822	0.38045924
17	Ben Lomond	0	0.23585952	0.12137549	0.357235
18	Canyon View	0	0.19333333	0.12718275	0.32051608
19	Mountain Crest	0	0.17166667	0.14204319	0.31370986
20	Cedar Valley	0	0.17666667	0.09182495	0.26849162
21	Snow Canyon	0.10196417	0.02569986	0.13822887	0.26589289
22	Hurricane	0	0.17297357	0.06995217	0.24292574

3A

Ranking	Team	MWP	OWP	OOWP	RPI
1	Manti	0.46299997	0.21805083	0.08930583	0.77035664
2	San Juan	0.3172588	0.28241666	0.07540278	0.67507824
3	North Sanpete	0.4	0.13833333	0.12612149	0.66445482
4	Grantsville	0.215	0.32427971	0.12432946	0.66360918
5	Morgan	0.445	0.11666667	0.09090231	0.65256898
6	South Summit	0.2	0.35391667	0.09832487	0.65224153
7	Delta	0.1	0.36983627	0.14083828	0.61067455
8	Summit Academy	0.23224998	0.21075293	0.145125	0.58812791
9	Richfield	0.2	0.27333333	0.09977778	0.57311111
10	American Leadership Academy	0.315	0.1224196	0.13526825	0.57268785
11	Grand County	0.13333333	0.24888889	0.12898148	0.5112037
12	Carbon	0.13333333	0.22888889	0.12438548	0.48660771
13	Juab	0.23	0.14333333	0.09786848	0.47120181
14	Emery	0	0.37555556	0.09498213	0.47053769
15	Union	0.115	0.20983332	0.10864632	0.43347964
16	Judge Memorial	0.1	0.18828254	0.14427778	0.43256032
17	South Sevier	0	0.25494921	0.12247222	0.37742143
18	Juan Diego	0	0.19877776	0.10769726	0.30647503

Not sure why the formatting is crazy here, but the bottom two teams won't make the playoffs, according to the bracket here https://www.maxpreps.com/tournament/jUHFpUZzEemA0ZFtwg1OMQ/jUHGEkZzEemA0ZFtwg1OMQ/football-fall-19/2019-uhsaa-state-football-championships-class-3a.htm

2A

Ranking	Team	MWP	OWP	OOWP	RPI
1	Milford	0.44725	0.205	0.16880066	0.82105066
2	Duchesne	0.315	0.34903254	0.0999746	0.76400714
3	Beaver	0.46225	0.17166667	0.11438938	0.74830604
4	Millard	0.445	0.16666667	0.0992698	0.71093647
5	Parowan	0.26666667	0.26653122	0.12550723	0.65870511
6	Monticello	0.46969523	0	0.16575	0.63544523
7	Enterprise	0.24984762	0.22166667	0.10844563	0.57995992
8	Kanab	0.26666667	0.15333333	0.13168069	0.55168069
9	North Sevier	0.215	0.2315	0.09442751	0.54092751
10	North Summit	0.23225	0.14994921	0.12570139	0.50790059
11	Layton Christian	0.23484762	0.19408333	0.06901508	0.49794603
12	Gunnison Valley	0	0.40079682	0.08388889	0.48468571
13	Rich	0	0.3	0.1575	0.4575
14	Altamont	0	0	0	0

Again, sorry for the formatting, but if you read last week's post, you saw that it appears Altamont dropped varsity football, so they won't be in the playoffs.

I will release the predictions later this week.  Also, the official RPI will be out on the 16th.  I will try to post my results on the 15th so that way my model can be tested against RPI.  I will use the official numbers to find any errors and make any of the minor changes needed to fix it.  I won't publish my results while the official RPI is live, but once it is taken offline on October 11th, I will go back to publishing the results from my model.