Monday, September 30, 2019

Week 4: The week of low scores.

I eventually plan on going back and getting every score in our league history for the charts page, but that won't be for a while.  Part of the reason I want to do that is I want to know where this week ranks in the history of average scores.  It feels like this is one of the lower-scoring average weeks in league history.  I have no data to back this up, but I am of the belief that if you score 120, you will be competitive and should have a chance to win a given week.  This week we only had three people get over 120.  The first week we had nine people do it, and weeks two and three had six people each time who did it.  I suppose this week is to help balance out the first week, but still, it was an ugly week.

Also, as an interesting note, each division went 2-2 this week -- so no division can claim dominance off of record just yet.

Skyler vs Ren:  Thanks to some poor QB and Flex play from Ren's team, Skyler squeaked out with a win.  This game had a differential of less than 10 and was only the second closest game of the week.  It feels odd to say that Ren was let down by his leading scorer, but if Davante Adams didn't get hurt, Ren probably would have won.

Tommy vs Trevor: Tommy's over-reliance on the panthers this week came back to bite him.  It turns out McCaffrey can't carry Tommy's team on his back while he also carries the Panthers to victory.  Trevor was carried to victory by Aaron Rodgers best game all season, as well as another outstanding performance by Ekeler.

Brandon vs TJ: The Monday Night-mare continues for TJ, who needed about 12.5 points from Andy Dalton to get the win, and instead only gets a little over 3.5 from him. Brandon got Gurley's best week of the season and a surprising 14 points from his kicker.  Only 6 kickers all year have scored more than 14 points.  This was the closest game of the week and would have been closer if Andy Dalton wasn't so awful. This was the nailbiter of the night because of the close score and the chance to be decided late and it was also the battle of ineptitude because of the low scores.

Brady vs Jordan: What started out as a very close game at the beginning of Monday night ended up being the biggest blowout of the week. Joe Mixon needed to outscore James Conner and the Steelers DST for Brady to have a shot, and instead, Brady lost by 40.  It wasn't pretty.

Matt vs Tyler: Early on, this looked like a game that would be defined by QB play (Mahomes vs Watson) but instead came down to Nick Chubb and Cooper Kupp for Tyler, and the players (Ridley and Graham) on Matt's bench.  With 91.10 points on the bench, Matt let Tyler slip through his fingers.  Talk about a bunch of luck.  That puts him on the shortlist of luckiest teams of the week for sure.  This has the highest combined score of the week.  I'm still trying to find a decent name, so if anyone has suggestions, I'm all ears.

Rob vs Kyle: In the Battle of the Cousins, Kyle was killed so Rob is mafia?  Robert Woods had his best game of the short season, and the Patriots pulled their weight yet again.  They scored 25 points for a defense, which was great -- except it's almost 20 points less than their best week.  I don't know when their run will end, but they are giving Rob a nice boost for sure.  So far this season, defenses have scored 21 or more points 10 times -- and the Pats have done it three times (the Bears have done it twice -- I wonder what lucky team they play for?).  Kyle actually had solid performances by most of his players, and a great week by Gallman,  but was let down by the Jags DST and by Juju.

Awards Season

High Scorer of the Week:  Jordan comes in at the last minute and wins this award.  Plenty of people seemed to celebrate it and come to his defense on the group chat, so I can only assume he bested some villain in this category.  Getting over 1/3 of your points in one night from an RB and DST will certainly do wonders for your team.

Low Scorer of the Week: Tommy wins the award this week.  I thought this was his second time because he had scored in the 80's another week as well, but turns out he wasn't the low scorer that week.  Tommy's team confuses me.  In week one, he was the third-highest scorer, then week two he was the second-lowest scorer, then week three he was the second-highest scorer and then this week he was the lowest scorer.  If this pattern holds, look for him to be the highest scorer next week. 

Luckiest Team of the Week:  Tyler definitely got really lucky this week with Matt sitting 90 points on his bench (and only scoring 117), and Brandon got really lucky this week because there were only 4 people who scored lower than he did, and he still won, but Skyler is the alleged luckiest team of the week.  Just because there were only 5 teams he could have beaten, or because Ren's QB ended up with negative points, and his best player got hurt in the 3rd quarter, or because Ren left 96.40 points on his bench (his starters had 99.18) doesn't mean he is lucky.  But this award is for the people, and there was a grassroots campaign by people wanting to deflect from their own luck to make sure Skyler got this award.  As the commissioner, I am only here to serve.

MVP(s) of the Week: This will be split between James Conner and his defense.  They combined for 52+ points and made Jordan the High Scorer of the Week on the last night of the week.  I'm sure they are very honored to win this award.

LVP(s) of the Week: Case Keenum (-0.52), Nels0n Agh0l0r, Matt Bryant (4), Kyle Allen (3.28), Greg Olsen (2.5), the Packers DST (0), Delanie Walker (1.4), the Ravens DST (-5), the Rams DST (5), Stephen Gostkowski (4), Vernon Davis (1.5), Phillip Dorsett (3.9), Brett Maher (4), Zane Gonzalez (4), Marlon Mack (3.9), OBJ (4), Justin Tucker (5), Adam Thielen (2.6), Ka'imi Fairbairn (4), Juju Smith-Schuster (4.5), The Jaguars DST (3).

Game Previews

Skyler (3) vs Trevor (9): Skyler has one starter on Thursday night and no players in primetime. He has no players on bye.  Trevor has no starters on Thursday night and he may have a player in primetime depending on TY Hilton's health.  He has no players on bye.

Ren (8) vs Tommy (6): Ren has no players on Thursday night and no players in primetime.  He has one player on bye.  Tommy has no players on Thursday night and no players in primetime.  He has two players on bye.

Jordan (2) vs Brandon (7): Jordan has no players on Thursday night and has no players in primetime (barring a very quick recovery from Tyreek Hill).  He has two players on bye. Brandon has three starters on Thursday night and one starter on primetime.  He has no players on bye.

TJ (11) vs Brady (10): TJ has one starter on Thursday night and has two players in primetime.  He has two players on bye.  Brady has two starters on Thursday night and has one starter in primetime.  He has no players on bye.  This has the potential to be the battle of ineptitude base on their combined rankings.

Kyle (12) vs Matt (8): Kyle has one player on Thursday night and has three players in primetime.  He has one player on bye.  Matt has two starters on Thursday night and has one starter in primetime.  He has no players on bye.  This has the potential to be the battle of ineptitude base on their combined rankings.

Tyler (1) vs Rob (4): Tyler has one starter on Thursday night and three starters in primetime.  He has no players on bye. Rob has no players on Thursday night and potentially three starters in primetime.  He has no players on bye. This has the potential to be the game of the week based on their combined rankings and the nailbiter of the night with that many players going in primetime.

That is all for this week.  I likely won't update the charts tonight.  Best of luck to everyone next week except Trevor.

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