UHSAA Week 5 Predictions

After going 74% last week, it looks like RPI is a solid predictor of how games featuring two Utah teams will end.  Of course, that is only one week, so let's see how RPI does for week 5.  Below are the matchups (Utah teams only), and the predictions, as well as 3 groups of upsets to watch out for.

Away Team	Away RPI	Home Team	Home RPI	RPI Predicted Winner
Lehi	0.56639619	Timpanogos	0.44445791	Lehi
Duchesne	0.76400714	North Summit	0.50790059	Duchesne
Rich	0.4575	Gunnison Valley	0.48468571	Gunnison Valley
Kanab	0.55168069	Parowan	0.65870511	Parowan
Milford	0.82105066	Beaver	0.74830604	Milford
North Sevier	0.54092751	Enterprise	0.57995992	Enterprise
Clearfield	0.2751087	Fremont	0.44197858	Fremont
Davis	0.41277778	Layton	0.46222222	Layton
Syracuse	0.58093014	Roy	0.58027778	Syracuse
Weber	0.44888889	Northridge	0.37916667	Weber
Hunter	0.5028744	Granger	0.3943116	Hunter
Taylorsville	0.42128018	Cyprus	0.26009662	Taylorsville
West Jordan	0.3809058	West	0.49594202	West
Bountiful	0.43192452	Woods Cross	0.71012502	Woods Cross
Farmington	0.6756092	Box Elder	0.51303183	Farmington
Viewmont	0.41762501	Bonneville	0.47644971	Bonneville
Cottonwood	0.30262549	Murray	0.44689658	Murray
Hillcrest	0.27913044	Skyline	0.4315625	Skyline
Olympus	0.59738959	Brighton	0.63444446	Brighton
Timpview	0.54970461	Mountain Ridge	0.41158382	Timpview
Maple Mountain	0.52645773	Payson	0.52975128	Payson
Provo	0.57618209	Springville	0.74030314	Springville
Wasatch	0.52491666	Spanish Fork	0.37284282	Wasatch
Cedar	0.42893054	Canyon View	0.32051608	Cedar
Hurricane	0.24292574	Desert Hills	0.39459612	Desert Hills
Pine View	0.46281944	Crimson Cliffs	0.39411309	Pine View
Snow Canyon	0.26589289	Dixie	0.69469002	Dixie
Ben Lomond	0.357235	Cedar Valley	0.26849162	Ben Lomond
Mountain View	0.65094985	Uintah	0.4379887	Mountain View
Park City	0.70363886	Ogden	0.54435264	Park City
Tooele	0.55365318	Stansbury	0.54454897	Tooele
Bear River	0.38045924	Ridgeline	0.46999957	Ridgeline
Green Canyon	0.76528158	Sky View	0.6456428	Green Canyon
Logan	0.50412686	Mountain Crest	0.31370986	Logan
American Fork	0.67284769	Herriman	0.70361111	Herriman
American Leadership Academy	0.57268785	Judge Memorial	0.43256032	American Leadership Academy
Corner Canyon	0.79702494	Alta	0.46048065	Corner Canyon
Grand County	0.5112037	North Sanpete	0.66445482	North Sanpete
Grantsville	0.66360918	San Juan	0.67507824	San Juan
Juab	0.47120181	Emery	0.47053769	Juab
Juan Diego	0.30647503	Copper Hills	0.48933977	Copper Hills
Monticello	0.63544523	Millard	0.71093647	Millard
Richfield	0.57311111	Manti	0.77035664	Manti
Riverton	0.54523982	Kearns	0.65601276	Kearns
Salem Hills	0.56423258	Highland	0.58317315	Highland
Skyridge	0.66462378	Orem	0.66075591	Skyridge
South Sevier	0.37742143	Delta	0.61067455	Delta
Union	0.43347964	Carbon	0.48660771	Carbon
Westlake	0.54021782	Bingham	0.61254428	Bingham

*I apologize for any formatting.  Formatting from excel doesn't always copy over to blogger.*

.05 Home Underdogs (These are the home teams who are underdogs by .05 RPI difference or less):
Roy, Stansbury, Emery, and Orem (more about Orem later)

.1 Home Underdogs (These are the home teams who are underdogs by .1 RPI difference or less):
All of the above teams in addition to Beaver, Northridge, Crimson Cliffs, and Cedar Valley.  I believe these upsets will be less likely as the season goes on and the RPI scores become less volatile, but for now, I will include this section.

Matchups involving different classifications, but close RPI scores:
The only game involving teams from two different classifications where the RPI is close is 6A Skyridge at 5A Orem.  Skyridge is favored by less than 0.004 in RPI differential, and Orem is at home.  If they were in the same classification, I would feel more comfortable saying watch out of the Orem upset.

My final note is that I haven't seen any correlation between RPI difference and score differential.  Usually the higher the spread, the more the favored team wins by, but I haven't been closely monitoring it since RPI doesn't take the score into account.  I will start tracking it this week going forward (and will check last week) and  I'll report any findings.